承销商分析师与非承销商分析师利益冲突比较研究

基于证券分析师首次发表的关于2006~2008年A股市场IPO股票的研究报告数据,运用非参数检验与多元回归分析方法,对我国证券分析师利益冲突行为进行实证分析。研究结果表明,承销商分析师与非承销商分析师均存在乐观倾向,而且承销商分析师的投资评级更为乐观;市场对于承销商分析师与非承销商分析师关注股票的反应并无显著差异,表明我国证券市场投资者并没有认识到分析师的利益冲突行为。     

证券分析师评级具有投资参考价值吗?

本文选取2012~2013年市场盘整期的分析师股票评级数据,基于市场调整模型,采用事件研究法,将研报发布前后不同时间窗口期的股票表现作为不同评级对股价影响程度的衡量指标,探究了证券分析师股票评级的投资参考价值。结果表明,证券分析师存在明显的"乐观倾向",增持、买入评级占据股票研究报告大部分,主张减持、卖出的评级比较罕见。从时间维度上看,买入、增持评级短期市场效应显著。证券分析师通常关注的强势股票,在被推荐之前往往有着良好的市场表现,买入评级发布后,仍旧享有超额收益,只是有所收窄。最后,针对国内分析师较少发布不利评级和现存评级机制存在的深层次内部问题,文章分别从证券分析师、投资者、上市公司和监管部门四方主体角度提出参考性意见。     

分析师评级、信息与泡沫——基于2015年股票市场泡沫

本文以2015年中国股票市场的泡沫为背景来检验信息的传播是否能够减少股票泡沫。本文使用了多种测度泡沫的方法发现:当股票的分析师评级数越多时,其复合泡沫指标越小。当分析师的研究报告意见不统一时,相同数量的研报相较于分析师意见统一时对泡沫的减缓程度更小。本文发现,这些分析师的研究报告是通过统一投资者对股票的预期来减轻泡沫。股票成交量也反应了这一思想,当分析师评级数越多,投资者意见越统一,成交量也越小;当分析师意见不统一时,这种负相关的关系也越弱。     

财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益

以Z证券公司2014年5月至7月间发布的208份投资评级报告为研究样本,实证检验了上市公司财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益之间的关系.结果表明:证券分析师更倾向于给予上市公司积极的投资评级,且随着证券分析师对上市公司投资评级积极程度的增强,目标价在其未来约定的期间内越发难以实现;若投资者严格遵循证券分析师的投资评级进行投资,总体上可以获得超过市场平均收益水平的超额收益;相对于单纯考虑财务业绩或事件的投资评级,综合财务业绩与事件共同影响的投资评级会带来更高的收益.     

卖方分析师研究报告对股价的影响——兼论分析师行业生态

本文以2010年22137份研究报告为样本,采用事件研究的方法,考察卖方分析师研究报告与股价的关系,并进一步研究行业内不同研究机构表现的差异。本文认为分析师行业整体更偏向于出具较为激进的评级,而那些著名研究机构出于自身声誉的考虑,在出具评级报告的时候更加稳健。经过进一步的分析,发现分析师的研究报告能带来超额收益率,但是仅在事件窗口内具有显著的效果,而且这种超额收益率是不可持续的。另外,著名研究机构的较为激进的研究报告之所以能取得较高超额收益率,是由其在市场中的声望以及推荐能力所导致的,本文的结果支持价格压力假说。     

分析师荐股评级修正的羊群行为研究

基于中国股票市场的数据,根据股价对评级修正的反应,本文实证研究了证券分析师荐股评级修正的羊群行为及其影响因素。研究发现:分析师荐股评级修正存在明显的羊群行为,并且下调评级较上调评级更易发生羊群行为;除了分析师经验,分析师所属咨询机构的声誉、信息透明度和分析师跟踪上市公司的数量也显著地影响其羊群行为。     

股价同步性:信息效率还是噪音偏差?——基于分析师跟进的证据

股价同步性反映了股价中包含是信息还是噪音一直是学术界极具争议的话题。本文运用2004~2013年分析师研报数据实证分析了股价同步性与信息效率之间的关系。研究发现,股价同步性与信息效率存在正向关系,即分析师发布报告的股票股价同步性越低,报告中反映信息效率的公司特有信息含量越低,同时发现这种正向关系源于投资者对明星分析师研报的过度反应。结果表明,我国股票市场的投资者存在"追星"的选择性偏差,股价较低同步性包含了更多的噪音。研究结论为我国证券行业规范投资者行为提供了一个新的切入点,为建立健全投资者教育体系给出了一定的政策建议。     

公司财务绩效对分析师跟进的影响研究——以我国创业板上市公司为例

证券分析师在资本市场发挥了重要作用。本文以2009年至2013年我国创业板上市的公司为样本,研究了公司财务绩效对证券分析师跟进的影响。研究结果表明,公司财务绩效越好,分析师跟进人数越多,证明了我国证券分析师在对上市公司进行盈利预测时主要依赖的信息是公司财务信息。     

股市传闻对证券分析师预测行为的影响研究

股市传闻作为一类未经证实但却得以传播的信息,对于资本市场健康平稳运行产生不利影响。本文聚焦于证券分析师这一重要资本市场信息中介视角,系统考察了目标公司股市传闻情况对于分析师预测行为所产生的具体影响及其内在机理,研究发现上市公司发生传闻会降低分析师对其盈余预测的准确度,且发生传闻次数越多,分析师盈余预测准确度越低。影响机制检验表明股市传闻主要通过增加信息筛选难度以及分散注意力的方式来负面影响分析师预测精度。相较利好传闻而言,利空传闻对分析师盈余预测准确度的负面影响更明显。本文不仅拓展了股市传闻所引致经济后果以及分析师预测行为影响因素的相关研究文献与考察视角,也为切实管控中国股市传闻以促进资本市场高质量发展提供了有益借鉴。     

分析师预测研究进展与述评

在成熟的资本市场中,证券分析师扮演着重要的信息中介作用。本文系统回顾了近年来分析师预测相关领域的研究现状和发展趋势,特别是对分析师预测的准确性、分析师预测的羊群行为和乐观性、分析师推荐评级的投资价值以及分析师的决策过程等几个方面进行系统的梳理和总结,并指出基于买方分析师预测特性及其经济后果的相关研究是未来需要拓展的研究方向。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note: