延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

Publishing in accounting journals: A fair game?

Publication in the social sciences appears to have evolved into a game, played by four parties: the author, the reviewers, the editor and the bureaucrats using the simple criterion that a quality researcher publishes in quality journals. Acceptance rates for top quality journals now hover around the 10% mark. Something cannot be right with a system which creates so much apparent waste. Either too many authors are submitting substandard articles or too many reviewers are setting unrealistically high hurdles over which authors have to jump. Most of the literature has focussed on the unrealistically high hurdle rate explanation and also on the fallibility of reviewers and editors. The aim of this paper is to explore the issues of low acceptance rates as well as an increasingly lengthy publication process. The paper considers what is the purpose of publishing in academic journals and what are the motivations of authors, reviewers and editors. In order to inform both authors and reviewers of best practice, a summary of the extensive literature is given in the Appendix. The paper concludes with a survey of the suggestions that have been made to improve the publishing process in order to link back to the original purpose of publishing, that of communicating important results to inform public debate on major issues.     

Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa

It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts of the West African forest belt. There is also the absence of the Green Revolution, i.e., the use of new high yielding seeds and new technologies in agriculture that has led to marked increases in yields in most other parts of the world. A totally different and more productive agriculture might evolve if African governments were to fundamentally change their vision. Existing production technology could allow substantial increases in the yields of many crops if some basic changes were made in the policies affecting agriculture. A way to achieve such change would be to make farming profitable. The effect of population growth in diminishing returns to agriculture also lends urgency to the need for family planning. Generally, population policy in Africa badly needs strengthening.     

A re-examination of international inflation convergence over the modern float

Crowder [Crowder, W.J., 1996. The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 551–576] provided evidence that inflation rates among the seven largest industrialized economies shared one common stochastic trend in the post-war era, over both the fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. The convergence of inflation rates over the floating exchange rate period implies less insulation for the domestic economy from idiosyncratic shocks in the rest of the world, thereby reducing the attractiveness of flexible exchange rates. Several subsequent studies have found much less convergence than suggested in Crowder's original results, suggesting a higher degree of insulation of flexible exchange rates. In this study, we revisit the question of the degree of inflation convergence among the G-7 nations over the modern float. Employing a host of diagnostic methods, we conclude that there is in fact one common trend underlying the inflation rates of the G-7 nations. Consistent with Crowder [Crowder, W.J., 1996. The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 551–576], we cannot attribute the source of the underlying common trend to any one particular country.     

Pension Prefunding, Ageing, and Demographic Uncertainty

Pension prefunding can be used to smooth contribution rates in economies where ageing will increase pension expenditure. But how extensive should prefunding be in a defined benefit pension system when there is considerable uncertainty concerning future mortality, fertility, and migration? We study the prefunding rules in the Finnish earnings-related pension system with an OLG simulation model. The results show that increasing the degree of prefunding could yield a more even intergenerational outcome and make future generations' position better, but it is quite possible to overshoot and harm current generations too much. Making the degree of prefunding fertility-dependent appears to be a useful alternative. With declining fertility, current large cohorts would pay modestly increased contributions. The accumulated funds, however, will be huge in relation to the wage bills of smaller future cohorts.     

Tax enforcement and tax havens under formula apportionment

In this paper, we consider optimal tax enforcement policy in the presence of profit shifting toward tax havens. We show that, under separate accounting, tax enforcement levels may be too high due to negative fiscal externalities. In contrast, under formula apportionment, tax enforcement is likely to be too low due to positive externalities of tax enforcement. Our results challenge recent contributions arguing that, under formula apportionment, there is a tendency toward inefficiently high levels of (effective) tax rates.     

The Federal Reserve,the Emerging Markets,and Capital Controls: A High‐Frequency Empirical Investigation

In this paper, I use weekly data from seven emerging nations—four in Latin America and three in Asia—to investigate the extent to which changes in Fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short‐term interest rates during the 2000s. The results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates “pass‐through” from the Fed to emerging markets. However, the extent of transmission of interest rate shocks is different—in terms of impact, steady state effect, and dynamics—in Latin America and Asia. The results also indicate that capital controls are not an effective tool for isolating emerging countries from global interest rate disturbances. Changes in the slope of the U.S. yield curve, including changes generated by a “twist” policy, affect domestic interest rates in emerging countries. I also provide a detailed case study for Chile.     

Profit tax competition and formula apportionment

We analyze corporate income tax competition with international capital mobility when the common tax base is allocated to governments according to an apportionment formula. Labor can be either internationally mobile or immobile. We compare the Nash equilibria for different apportionment methods. Tax competition produces lower tax rates the more elastically the formula share responds to tax rate changes. More specifically, equilibrium tax rates are typically lowest when apportionment is based on property-shares, followed by payroll- and sales-shares apportionment. Compared to their cooperative levels, equilibrium tax rates are too low for property-share apportionment but tend to be too high for the other formulas. JEL Classification H77 · H25 · F23     

Minimum Death Rates and Maximum Life Expectancy: The Role of Concordant Ages

Only five populations have achieved maximum life expectancy (or best practice population) more than occasionally since 1900. The aim of this article is to understand how maximum life expectancy is achieved in the context of mortality transition. We explore this aim using the concepts of potential life expectancy, based on minimum rates at each age among all high longevity populations, and concordant ages. Concordant ages are defined as ages at which the minimum death rate occurs in the population with the maximum life expectancy. The results show the extent to which maximum life expectancy could increase through the realization of demonstrably achievable minimum rates. Concordant ages are concentrated at increasingly older ages over time, but they have produced more than half of the change in maximum life expectancy in almost all periods since 1900. This finding is attributed to their quantity and position whereby concordant ages are concentrated at the ages that have the greatest impact on mortality decline in a particular period. Based on mortality forecasts, we expect that concordant ages will continue to lead increases in female maximum life expectancy, but that they will play a weaker role in male maximum life expectancy.     

Obstacles to a global banking system: “Old Europe” versus “New Europe”

“Old Europe” – the developed nations of continental Europe – averages only about 15% foreign bank ownership, whereas “New Europe” – the transition nations of Eastern Europe – averages about 70%. Similar findings hold elsewhere in the world – developed nations tend to have much lower foreign bank ownership shares than developing nations. We examine the causes of the differences within Europe with an eye toward more general conclusions. Our findings suggest that the low foreign bank shares in “Old Europe” – and perhaps developed nations more generally – may primarily result from net comparative disadvantages for foreign banks and relatively high implicit government entry barriers. The high foreign penetration in “New Europe” – and perhaps developing nations more generally – may be due to net comparative advantages for foreign banks and low government entry barriers, particularly in nations that reduced their state bank ownership.     

劳动力市场性别差距、生产结构转型与人口增长转变

本文从劳动力市场性别差距视角为理解生产结构转型与人口增长转变的互动关系提出了新的理论机制。以脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重提高为特征的生产结构转型将缩小性别工资差距，提高家庭生育养育机会成本并降低生育率，进而增加女性劳动相对供给，这又会进一步提高脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重。直接干预女性劳动定价政策可能会带来女性结构性失业，反而扩大劳动力市场性别差距，且不利于生产结构转型；单方面降低女性生育养育成本政策虽然能够提高生育率，但也可能产生类似不利影响；降低男性生育养育成本政策既可以提高生育率，又可以缩小劳动力市场性别差距，并促进生产结构转型；生育养育成本补贴支出由政府承担的影响比由企业承担更为温和。本文结果表明，促进人口长期均衡发展的政策应与缩小劳动力市场性别差距、推动生产结构转型的政策统筹谋划和协调推进。本文研究为“优化人口发展战略，建立生育支持政策体系”提供了一定的理论依据和参考。     

How does banking sector globalization affect banking crisis?

A key feature of financial services liberalization is increasing banking-sector globalization.Using different measures to capture this phenomenon, the present study examines its impact on banking crisis for a dataset of 138 nations spanning the period 1998–2013, while controlling for other banking-industry specific, macroeconomic and external factors. Employing different econometric models and several robustness checks, I find greater banking sector globalization to reduce the occurrence of banking crisis. Moreover, greater bank asset concentration, diversification, credit flows, real interest rates, inflation rates, M2-to-foreign exchange reserves and nominal exchange rate depreciations significantly increase the likelihood of banking crisis, while higher bank profits, real GDP growth, economic development and economic freedom lower such chances. The results are further examined for nations across different levels of economic development and with different degrees of foreign bank penetration. The findings underscore that foreign bank presence provides greater financial stability in the banking industry of host nations.     

Risks and Rewards in Emerging Market Investments

In light of the recent currency crises in East Asia, this article questions the accepted wisdom that emerging market securities deserve to be included in global portfolios primarily because of their low correlations with more conventional asset classes. The authors suggest that the basic cycle of emerging market loans and securities appears to have been compressed, and its swings accentuated, by the herd-like behavior of global institutional investors. This is not the irrational behavior of crowds infected by investment euphoria, but the rational behavior (however volatile) of a large number of institutional investors with huge stakes in the market, each trying to outperform or at least keep up with the others. While stressing the benefits of foreign capital for emerging nations, Smith and Walter also point to the adverse consequences of abrupt shifts in investor sentiment and capital flows. Citing a recent World Bank study, the authors suggest that the effect of portfolio equity inflows on many developing economies has been a “glut” of foreign exchange and liquidity, which tends to cause inflationary pressure and appreciation of real exchange rates. Such currency appreciation can in turn have unwanted “real” effects, such as increases in trade deficits. Going somewhat “against the grain of the Washington Consensus,” the authors suggest that emerging nations undertake a gradual, though steady movement toward adoption of freemarket policies. In particular, they cite with approval attempts by more successful emerging nations such as Chile and South Africa to limit portfolio capital inflows to avoid this problem of excess liquidity. As the authors conclude, “At no point in their development did now-established countries like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Spain, and Chile adopt a totally free-market approach. They moved purposefully over decades in that direction, but only at a pace that could be accommodated by the accompanying political thinking and infrastructure-building.”     

Annuities and lifetime income: the Anglo-Saxon experience

A number of western industrialized nations have found themselves in a similar position to the United States today: an aging population leading to increasing, and perhaps unsustainable, expenditures on a traditional social security system. This article examines the risks that individuals face in retirement, describes the role of annuities in addressing those risks and examines why annuitization rates are so low. It then reviews the pension structures in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand--countries with similar governmental and economic structures to those of the United States--and describes how these have impacted those countries' annuitization rates.     

Return and Maturity Relationships for Treasury Auctions: Evidence from Turkey

The relationship between the interest rate and the maturity of newly issued bonds provides information on the debt dynamics of an economy as well as on the sustainability of its debt. Such information is crucial especially for countries that have debt‐rollover concerns due to financial stress and/or macroeconomic instability. This study investigates the relationship between treasury auction maturity, which also dictates the debt maturity, and auction interest rates. When the Turkish treasury auction data from 1988 to 2004 are analysed, a reciprocal linkage between auction interest rates and maturities can be observed, especially for the 1995–2000 period, when there were chronic high inflation, high political uncertainty, high public deficits and unsuccessful attempts at stabilisation. This suggests that under an adverse shock, the Treasury decreases the auction maturity in order not to increase interest rates too much. A change in this reciprocal relationship is also reported for the post‐2001 era, which is characterised by decreasing inflation, higher political stability, lower public deficits and successful stabilisation attempts.     

Toward the year 2000

If the world population continues to grow at its present rate, in only about 35 more years there will be an additional 3.5 billion people. Although it is likely that the growth rate will slow down in the future, there will be an increase of between 2.3-3.5 billion people by the year 2000. At that time the Asian, African, and Latin American regions of the world will account for between 81-84% of world population, regardless of whether there is a fertility decline. Simultaneously, the populations of Europe and North America will decrease from 26 to between 16-19%. The People's Republic of China is now working to contain population increase, but despite the efforts for every 10 Chinese alive in 1970 there will be 15 in the year 2000. For the other 9 most populous less developed countries, there will be nearly 20 persons for every 10. As this figure is 12 in the year 2000 for every 10 Russians or Americans in 1970, a significant reduction in the growth rate of population in the 10 largest less developed countries would do much to reduce the world's population problems. The number of children born between now and the year 2000 depends on the fertility of all women in the childbearing ages during that period. Finally, as the population of the world continues to increase, there will be a marked concentration of the world's children in the poorer nations, and this will be a major problem in these developing countries.     

The Notching Rule for Subordinated Debt and the Information Content of Debt Rating

This paper provides new evidence regarding the information content of debt ratings. We show that noninvestment grade subordinated issues are consistently priced too high (the yield is too low), and the reverse is true for some investment grade bonds. We relate this empirical bias to a notching rule of thumb that is used in order to rate subordinated debt without expending additional resources for information production. We propose an explanation for these findings based upon a balance between an attempt to please the companies that pay the raters versus a concern for lawsuits and regulatory investigations should ratings be too optimistic.     

Bank risk and national governance in Asia

The role of national governance upon bank-level risk in the Asian region is analysed. Improvements in national governance are risk reducing at the bank level in developed nations in the Asian region, and over the longer run for those nations affected by the Asian Financial Crisis. A U-shaped relationship between bank risk and bank capital is found, and it is argued that the risk reducing impact of increased capital holdings is close to satiation for developed nations in particular. Evidence of risk seeking due to ‘too big to fail’ effects is observed; with improved national governance able to partially offset some of the moral hazard due to size in developed nations, but not in developing nations. In developing nations increased size interacts with improved national governance to result in increased bank risk.     

Global work force 2000: the new world labor market

Just as there are global markets for products, technology, and capital, managers must now think of one for labor. Over the next 15 years, human capital, once the most stationary factor in production, will cross national borders with greater and greater ease. Driving the globalization of labor is a growing imbalance between the world's labor supply and demand. While the developed world accounts for most of the world's gross domestic product, its share of the world work force is shrinking. Meanwhile, in the developing countries, the work force is quickly expanding as many young people approach working age and as women join the paid work force in great numbers. The quality of that work force is also rising as developing countries like Brazil and China generate growing proportions of the world's college graduates. Developing nations that combine their young, educated workers with investor-friendly policies could leapfrog into new industries. South Korea, Taiwan, Poland, and Hungary are particularly well positioned for such growth. And industrialized countries that keep barriers to immigration low will be able to tap world labor resources to sustain their economic growth. The United States and some European nations have the best chance of encouraging immigration, while Japan will have trouble overcoming its cultural and language barriers.     

Historical and Projected Mortality for Mexico,Canada, and the United States

Abstract

This paper presents historical death rates for Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. by sex and broad age group. The time period for this historical analysis begins with 1900 (1930 for Mexico). These data provide a quite consistent basis from which experts can develop and contrast their expectations for future mortality trends. Official mortality projections developed by government agencies of each of the three countries provide a starting point for this discussion.

During this century, death rates declined fairly rapidly in all three countries. However, the rate of mortality improvement has varied considerably across time periods: distinct periods of rapid and slow improvement are evident in the data, but are not consistent across the countries and have not yet been explained.

The historical rates of improvement in mortality have also varied greatly by age and sex: younger age groups have shown the most rapid proportional improvement in mortality in all three countries, and mortality improvement during this century has generally been greater for females than for males. However, the data provide evidence that this difference in the rates of mortality improvement between men and women has recently slowed, and even reversed, in the U.S. and Canada. Historical experience and projections are provided in graphs, in which death rates are plotted on a logarithmic scale. This approach allows easy detection of the extent to which rates of improvement have been changing (death rates with constant rates of improvement would be plotted as straight lines).

The official projections supplied for comparison provide strikingly similar outlooks for future potential mortality improvement. In each case, the relatively average rapid rate of mortality improvement experienced so far this century is assumed to slow in the future. In addition, rates of improvement are projected to be much more similar for all three countries across age groups and between the sexes.