Military conflict and the rise of urban Europe

We present new evidence about the relationship between military conflict and city population growth in Europe from the fall of Charlemagne’s empire to the start of the Industrial Revolution. Military conflict was a main feature of European history. We argue that cities were safe harbors from conflict threats. To test this argument, we construct a novel database that geocodes the locations of more than 800 conflicts between 800 and 1799. We find a significant, positive, and robust relationship that runs from conflict exposure to city population growth. Our analysis suggests that military conflict played a key role in the rise of urban Europe.     

ON THE CONFLICT–POVERTY NEXUS

We develop a model to explore the inter-relationships between conflict and economic activity. We construct a simple two-period model where consumption and investment decisions are made in the presence of governments who consider initiating diversionary conflict to raise their chances of remaining in power. Economies with selfish leaders and lower gains from capital formation may fall prey to engaging in avoidable conflicts thereby lowering investment and hence future growth. Using panel data for over 152 countries from 1950 to 2000, we find evidence for conflict lowering economic growth and, after conditioning on the initial conditions of geography, private, public, and human capital investment, lower growth raising the likelihood of conflict. These results are broadly consistent with our model.     

Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions

In their seminal paper, Miguel et al. (2004) found that negative rainfall shocks (measured as negative year-on-year rainfall growth) had caused civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa over the 1981–1999 period. Since then, the rainfall and conflict data they used had undergone multiple revisions. We show that rainfall shocks are no longer statistically significant for civil conflict when the revised data are used. This is true whether we employ a different functional form for rainfall, extend the sample to include more recent observations, use longer lags for rainfall shocks, employ dynamic panel regression, or panel regressions that take into account of cross-sectional dependence. Using rainfall shocks as instruments for growth, we also find that growth is insignificant for civil conflict if the revised data are used. Upon further investigation, we find that updates in the rainfall and conflict data for one or a few countries may alone cause rainfall shocks to lose statistical significance.     

营销渠道的冲突与管理

营销渠道冲突是指渠道成员之间的目标、理念或行为相互不能满足对方要求的状态.营销渠道冲突有两种类型,即水平冲突与垂直冲突.渠道成员之间的目标差别、决策权与资源竞争、职能缺位、认识差距、沟通不畅等是渠道冲突产生的直接原因.渠道冲突的产生与发展一般要经过四个阶段,即冲突的酝酿、冲突契机的出现、冲突行为的发生、冲突的结果.渠道冲突是客观存在的,可以通过说服、宣传、融合、等待、谈判、仲裁、诉讼、联合、退让等手段对渠道冲突进行管理.     

Growth and conflict in the developing world: Neo-liberal narratives and social-economy alternatives

The last quarter of the 20th century saw an increase in violent conflicts across the globe. With connections between growth, poverty and conflict increasingly difficult to ignore, research has begun examining economic dimensions of conflict. This paper reviews and critiques this new research, much of it conducted by the World Bank. The research argues that war results from poverty, and poverty from misguided economic policies, so that reducing conflict requires redoubling efforts to promote growth via neo-liberal reforms. I criticize the conceptual underpinnings of this argument, including its overemphasis on individual incentives and its claim that social and economic injustices do not contribute to violent conflicts. Instead I argue that social economics provides valuable alternative perspectives on conflict that take seriously its social dimensions, especially problems of economic justice and the common good.     

Population aging,the costs of health care for the elderly and growth

Employing an overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth in which altruistic young agents take care of the health level of their aged parents at risk of illness, this paper examines how population aging influences the long-run growth rate of the economy. We show that life expectancy, when relatively low (high), positively (negatively) affects economic growth. This paper also investigates public policy on long-term care and demonstrates the existence of an intergenerational conflict between current and future generations. We also point out that population aging may mitigate the extent of this conflict.     

Costs of civil war and fragile states in Africa

This paper provides an analysis of the costs of conflict for the countries that are most affected by it, namely low‐income and fragile countries in Africa. It provides an analysis of the impact of conflict on economic growth using a panel of African countries and investigates the differences between those categorized as fragile and others. It finds that there are significant differences, with fragile countries most affected by conflict. It also considers the potential spillover effects of conflict and finds that fragile states also suffer more from conflicts within neighboring states. Finally, it considers whether the results are robust to endogeneity of the conflict variable. Using instrumental variable estimation confirms the negative effect of conflict and the larger effects on fragile states and gives even larger coefficient estimates.     

Endogenous distribution and equilibrium growth: a note

Does distributive conflict diminish during the course of economic development? This article outlines a model in which distribution, the tax rate and growth evolve endogenously over time. When voting occurs over a tax on capital, we show that the growth rate is maximized at the political equilibrium in the long run. When voting occurs over a general income tax, we show that the growth rate is maximized at the political equilibrium in both the short and long run. These results suggest that the transitional dynamics of growth models with redistributive politics lead to growth‐maximizing outcomes, as distributive conflict diminishes in the course of development. This implies that the democratic process leads to greater consensus over policy choices, with a perfect convergence of interest across individuals with respect to the tax rate.     

Growth and distribution in an AK-model with endogenous impatience

This paper combines the classical approach to inequality, based on the division of society into classes with different saving propensities, and the social conflict approach, in which inequality inflicts costs to growth. We assume that each consumer’s discount factor is endogenously determined through two channels: (1) it is positively related to the consumer’s relative wealth, and (2) negatively affected by an aggregate measure of social conflict. Unlike in models with exogenous discount rates, steady state equilibria are indeterminate and the set of equilibria is a continuum parameterized by an index of income inequality. Under reasonable assumptions, the relationship between growth and inequality has an inverted-U shape.     

Can Growth Ease Class Conflict?

This paper proposes a theory that links labor supply to wage growth and economic growth, and the conflict of interest between capital and labor. During the early stages of industrialization of a country, "surplus" labor drawn from the traditional sector of the economy is available to the modern capitalist sector at a constant or only slowly rising wage. As industrialization proceeds, this labor surplus vanishes, leading to wages rising in tandem with the growth of output. As long as there is surplus labor, workers in the modern capitalist sector, who are organized, have little interest in growth as it does not raise wages. The effect of growth is external to them, simply drawing more workers into the capitalist sector and enabling the entrants to receive rents. So capitalist-sector workers would like to redistribute income regardless of the adverse effect on growth. Once the economy grows enough for the subsistence sector to vanish, further growth raises wages. Hence, this change in the structure of the economy leads to a reduction in the intensity of the labor–capital conflict.
The dual economy model implies that growth rates rise over time and fall after the exhaustion of the labor surplus which is consistent with the stylized fact of economic growth.     

Civil war and economic growth: the case for a closer look at forms of mobilization

This paper explores the idea that the lack of robust evidence on the growth impact of civil war could partially be a consequence of considering civil war as a unified conceptual category, regardless of the ordinate of group identity invoked in mobilizing for war. To do so, we distinguish explicitly between episodes of internal conflict where contestants mobilized along the lines of ethnicity and ones where mobilization occurred along other markers of group identity. Using alternative definitions of civil war and System GMM estimation to address the endogeneity of conflict and per capita income, we obtain a negative contemporaneous impact of non-ethnic civil war on economic growth over the period 1975–2005. By contrast, the impact of ethnic war is statistically insignificant.     

EU membership,institutions and growth: The case of Turkey

This paper investigates the institutions-growth relationship during the EU membership process in Turkey. The membership process is considered as a supranational anchor to further improving institutional quality. I examine effects of individual components of institutions on economic growth. I find significant evidence that institutions matter for growth. Specifically, law and order and bureaucratic quality and management of internal conflict and ethnic tensions affect growth in Turkey.     

Civil Conflict,Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

In this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects.     

代理成本与审计师选择--基于中国IPO公司的研究

西方大量研究表明,公司的代理冲突程度越高,选择大事务所进行审计的动力就越强。文章在对179家IPO公司研究后发现,建立在英美市场经济条件下的代理理论对我国审计师选择行为的解释力并不充分。在公司规模、成长性、财务杠杆、管理层持股比例、董事会独立性等反映公司代理冲突的变量中,仅公司规模与是否选择大事务所进行审计有显著正向关系,管理层持股与是否选择大事务所审计则呈倒U形关系,没有发现成长性、财务杠杆与审计师选择存在显著关系的证据。     

环境与经济冲突的结构功能主义分析

经济系统化和人类自身福利的需要对经济增长提出了迫切要求，这一要求导致经济与环境之间存在着似乎永远无法消弭的紧张与冲突。面对不断恶化的生态环境，人类试图以经济手段和政府管制的方式来缓和，甚至消除经济与环境之间的冲突．但实践证明，“生态鸿沟”的进一步扩大给人类的努力以沉重打击。在生态价值尚未取代经济价值，并且成为引导人类生存方式的主导价值理念之前，人类不可能走出环境与经济冲突的困境。     

A Research on Approach to the Development Strategy of Tourism Economic Growth

As the tourism is improving, the economy growth can be obtained. Therefore, to improve tourism is to improve the economy. In fact, some supplies of tour could not meet the demands, which brings out conflict. It is obvious that solving the problem of supply and demand of tour is the approach to the development strategy of tourism economic growth.     

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.     

生态工业园多层次模糊综合评价方法研究

随着工业化和环境冲突的不断加剧,如何对生态工业园进行综合评价成为学术界的热点问题。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,构建并提炼出生态工业园评价指标体系,采用多层次模糊综合评价模型对生态工业园的运行和发展情况进行了综合评价。     

Effective property rights, conflict and growth

This paper shows how the interaction between conflict and growth can give rise to a nonmonotone relationship between property rights and social welfare. This interaction is illustrated in a model of endogenous growth in which equilibrium diversion of resources is the cost of securing effective property rights. A symmetric equilibrium allocation associated with more secure property rights and faster growth can be Pareto dominated by one associated with poorer property rights and slower growth. Faster growth can exacerbate the problem of diversion whenever property rights are sufficiently poor. These results call for caution before a society decides to pursue economic growth independently of the institutional structure of property rights. Furthermore, if this structure is inappropriate piecemeal reform might not be in the interest of society, and a substantial reform might be necessary if it is to be welfare-improving.