现在的一小步&将来的一大步

<正>中国在经常项目顺差过大的情况下,资本账户也呈现出顺差,国际收支不平衡现象对于国内流动性过剩推波助澜,进一步推高了资产价格泡沫。对此,用"政府投出去,企业走出去,个人流出去"的方式鼓励资金流出,减少资本项目顺差可以在很大程度上疏导国内过剩流动性、降低境内资产价格泡沫风险。此次宣布对个人投资香港股票市场放行,就是鼓励个人资金流出去的重要一步,也是中国资本账户逐步开放、人民币逐步实现自由兑换的必要步伐。     

我国资本市场功能定位的再思考

在我国资本市场的演变过程中,政府的主导作用一方面促进了资本市场发展,但同时也在一定程度上导致了市场的低效率与高风险。我国资本市场的可持续发展,要求将政府在资本市场上的行政功能置于一定的市场规则与制度的约束之下,在依据市场规律的基础上进行调控、以投资者为主体进行资本市场的制度设计,从而促进我国资本市场的发展。     

国际货币基金组织与国际资本流动管理

全球金融危机爆发后,国际货币基金组织对待国际资本流动的态度有所改变。这主要表现在其开始肯定资本管制的作用,并逐步建立起关于资本流入管理、资本流出管理、国际资本流动政策协调等一系列管理框架。在此基础上,基金组织开始重新考虑其在2005年提出的统一的资本自由流动框架。总体上,各国对于基金组织的资本流动管理框架表示欢迎与支持,但是对于基金组织提出的资本流动管理措施的启用条件、实施次序以及对于资本来源国的政策溢出管理等仍有所保留。这要求基金组织进一步完善其政策管理框架,从而使得各国最大程度享受资本流动带来的好处,降低其负面影响。     

资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析北大核心SSCI

本文运用国别面板数据研究了资本账户流入和流出的影响因素,并以占比法测度资本开放度为替代变量做了稳健性检验。研究发现,一国经济发展水平越高、通胀水平越低、本币越是低估、政体民主程度越高、贸易开放度保持适度水平,将越有利于资本流出项目的开放;同样的条件下,贸易开放度越高,也越有利于资本流入项目的开放。中国应加快完善本国金融市场,降低对银行的过度依赖,加快金融市场多样性的发展。通过开放资本流入引进外部资本,促进服务业市场的有效竞争和金融市场的健康发展,随着国内金融市场抗风险能力增强和人民币汇率趋近均衡水平,再放开资本流出,方可以较小的成本获取资本账户开放的收益。     

税收竞争、资本外流与投资环境改善——经济增长与收入公平分配并行路径研究

税收竞争和资本外流风险导致辖区政府追求高增长、不分配(低税)政策,但是,良好的投资环境可以在较高税负的前提下吸引住资本,既使经济增长,又使收入公平分配。本文在一个非合作开放经济框架中构建的理论模型表明:(1)资本税负越重,资本外流越严重;(2)如果投资环境改善,资本流入且促进经济增长,工人依附资本取得劳动报酬并在一定程度上抑制收入不平等;如果投资环境恶化,资本进一步流出至外地获取收入并使本辖区经济增长减速,工人失去资本依赖且无法取得收入,在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。联立方程计量分析验证了理论命题。本文的政策建议是,保持对资本所得的有效税负,改善投资环境,形成经济增长与收入公平分配并行的路径。     

中国资本控制的有效性考察

中国资本控制的有效性可以通过资本收益率差异、资本流入和资本流出三个方面进行考察,总的来说,中国资本控制是较为成功的。通过比较经汇率调整后的中国利率与国际利率,发现二者存在明显差异,且不存在共同的趋势走向。在资本流入方面,与我国鼓励国外直接投资的政策相对应,FDI占了资本流入的绝大部分,对外借债和其他资本流入也在政府有效的控制之下。通过构造资本控制变量以及对资本外逃进行回归分析,可以得出中国对资本流出的控制力逐渐减弱的结论。     

资本管制的理论依据与实践选择

全球金融危机造成国际资本剧烈波动并严重影响各国经济,对新兴市场国家的影响尤为明显,引发对资本管制政策必要性的重新思考。而重大突发公共卫生事件暴发导致的新一轮资本流出给新兴市场国家带来的巨大冲击,以及中国不断推进的金融市场双向开放引起的对全球金融状况的敏感性逐步增加,都凸显出合理使用资本管制政策的重要意义。通过梳理近年来关于资本管制政策实施的理论基础、国际货币基金组织对待资本管制政策的态度、新兴市场国家资本账户管理的经验,以及中国资本账户开放实践等方面的文献,发现现有文献在资本管制政策的有效性上尚未达成共识,未来应从资本管制政策与其他宏观经济政策的配合使用、资本管制政策的溢出效应与国际经济政策协调等方面进一步开展研究。     

资本账户开放对金融风险的影响——资本流向视角的分析北大核心SSCI

资本账户开放与资本自由流动紧密相联。回顾历次金融危机与风险事件,其均伴随跨境资本大量流入流出。资本账户开放下的金融风险可归结于货币危机风险与银行风险。实证结果显示：资本流向对上述风险均有显著影响,具体来看,直接投资流出、证券投资流入均加剧了货币危机风险与银行风险。因此,除保持较高速经济增长水平、提高本国贸易开放程度之外,需要关注美国利率走势及其对本国货币危机风险的影响,同时应加大对资本流向的跟踪与分析力度。     

政府管制下企业的IPO时机和资本结构

以1993—2012年中国A股市场发行的股票为研究对象,分析了企业自主择时、政府发行价格管制和政府上市节奏管制对企业资本结构的影响。结果表明:政府处于信息劣势地位,政府发行价格管制会使企业IPO定价不合理、市场无效率;企业自主择时、政府的发行价格管制和上市节奏管制对企业的资本结构均具有显著影响,并且这三者的影响都具有持续性;政府管制在一定程度上扭曲了企业的资本结构。     

金融自由化对我国引进外资的影响

正一、积极影响。1.降低了外资进入国内市场的门槛,增加了建设的资金保障。我国适应世界市场的要求,逐步开放金融市场,放松了对于各类金融机构的管制和市场进入门槛,为外资进入我国市场提供了较好的制度环境,有利于我国引资建设国内经济,为我国的社会主义建设提供了较为充足的资金保障。2.促进了国内外资本的自由流动,一定程度上增加了外商的直接投资。金融自由化的主要内容之一便是汇率的自由化,而政府对汇率管     

资本流动性的测量——基于资本流动性结构分析

首先对资本流动性进行了概念界定,认为资本流动性即为资本流入流出占一国国民生产总值的比值,并对几种测量资本流动性的方法进行了简要评述。在总量规模法的基础上运用直接测算法、间接测算法、克莱因测算法、非直接投资净额调整法测量了我国的资本流动性。结合对我国资本流动性结构特征的变化的分析,发现直接投资的流动性稳步下降,证券投资和其他投资的流动性为上升趋势,而总资本流动性呈震荡上升趋势。其中,在不考虑资本外逃时,其他投资对总资本的流动性变化起到主要作用。     

Pros and cons of official dollarization in Eastern Europe

The balance of payments barrier is the biggest obstacle to growth in Eastern Europe. This problem stems from the existence of individual national currencies which dynamically increases the risk associated with capital inflows. Capital inflow leads to both domestic growth and domestic currency real appreciation, reducing net exports to a level insufficient to service international debt obligations stemming from capital inflow. To avoid losses when capital flows are reversed, high domestic interest rates are required to stem capital outflow. Result is the decline of domestic economic activity. Adoption of foreign currency eliminates the need for net exports as the source of revenue needed to service debt obligation, hence it renders the balance of payments as an obstacle to sustained capital flows and economic growth irrelevant.     

A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows

International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too small(the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model)or too large(when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model).To resolve the paradoxes,we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm heterogeneity.In our model,free trade in goods does not imply equal returns to capital across countries.In addition,rich patterns of gross capital flows emerge as a function of financial and property rights institutions.A poor country with an inefficient financial system may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of FDI,resulting in a small net flow.In comparison,a country with a low capital-to-labor ratio but a high risk of expropriation may experience an outflow of financial capital without a compensating inflow of FDI.     

西部大开发资本流入的经济学分析

西部大开发的核心是资本流入,鉴于西部目前现状,政府只能采取“政府补贴市场”机制,对进入西部的投资主体进行补贴,提高资本收益率,从而可以利用市场机制实现资源配置,最终实现西部大开发的战略目标。     

中国省际资本流动规模实证研究

基于市场交易中资金与货物流向相反的逻辑,以地区货物和服务净流出减去其净出口的相反数来测算中国省际资本流动的规模,并分析其制度成因。结果表明:1980—2008年东部为资本净流入地区,中部为资本净流出地区,而西部则为持续的资本净流出地区;在东部地区内,京津冀为资本净流入地区,长三角和珠三角为资本净流出地区。资本跨地区流动的制度成因在于地方政府行为生成的内生交易费用差异,因而地区产业投资环境建设的重点在于持续降低当地的内生交易费用。在推进区域产业转移和产业升级过程中,可置信的保护产权的承诺等良好的公共治理对于改善地区投资环境必不可少。     

Efficiency Wages and International Factor Mobility

This paper incorporates efficiency wages into the Heckscher-Ohlin model. The capital intensive sector pays higher wages than the other sector. One result is that tariffs to attract capital increase welfare by increasing the quality, not quantity, of jobs available. However, there are distributional effects among laborers. Some see an increase in wages, others become unemployed. The paper also investigates policies in the presence of illegal immigration. If immigration cannot be limited, a high wage country is best served by a capital outflow that eliminates the incentive for the labor inflow. Again, there are distributional effects among the workers. [F20]     

Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications

This paper examines how different trade policies affect illegal trade practices, foreign exchange market and the degree of illegal capital outflow. It builds up a three-country preferential–non-preferential trade model where low or zero tariff prevails in the preferential trade channel and higher tariff is exercised in the non-preferential trade channel. We show that initially the preferential trade channel is likely to encourage illegal capital outflow and non-preferential trade channel is conducive for illegal transactions in foreign exchange in the local market. But finally a low tariff regime takes care of both illegal capital outflow and black market for foreign exchange.     

A Model of Tradeable Capital Tax Permits

Standard models of horizontal capital tax competition predict that, in a Nash equilibrium, states set tax rates inefficiently due to externalities—capital inflow to one state corresponds to capital outflow for another state. Researchers often suggest that the federal government impose Pigouvian taxes to correct for these effects and achieve efficiency. We propose an alternative incentive‐based regulation: tradeable capital tax permits. Under this system, the federal government would require a state to hold a permit if it wanted to reduce its capital income tax rate from some predefined benchmark. These permits would be tradeable across states. We show that, if the federal government sets the correct number of total permits, then social efficiency is achieved. We discuss the advantages of this system relative to the canonical suggestion of Pigouvian taxes.     

Government investment in natural capital

This paper presents a new approach to the measurement of natural capital. A distinguishing feature of this approach is the use of investment criteria that are consistent with the main features of physical capital, thus maintaining consistency in the measurement of different types of capital. This new approach was applied to the expenditures of the federal government in Canada as recorded in the Public Accounts for fiscal year 2004-05. My results indicate that, in 2004-05, total investment in natural capital by the federal government amounted to 2.6% of net budgetary expenditures. Spending on physical capital, the only component that is currently included as investment in the National Accounts, represented only 5% of total investment in natural capital.     

A Theoretical Model of Financial Crisis

The paper develops a new model of private debt financing with an inefficient financial system at its core, where inefficiency is characterized by costly loan monitoring. The model suggests a mechanism that generates the following series of events: a period of low capital inflow despite high rates of economic growth (capital inflow inertia), as observed in the take-off era in the Asian tiger economies; followed by a sudden acceleration of capital inflow (as seen in the 1990s); and then by a crisis, which is defined as a large reduction in the amount of loans intermediated by the financial system (i.e., a large capital outflow or credit crunch). Under certain conditions, financial crisis can occur even when economic fundamentals and market sentiment change only slightly. Unlike most credit rationing models, the results presented here do not hinge on the assumption of asymmetric information. The model also provides guidance about the appropriate policy responses to an imminent crisis.