Qualitatively Rational Expectations and Adjustment in the Specific-Factors Model

This paper considers adjustment in a dynamic specific-factors model with endogenous capital stocks. Investment is analyzed under the assumption that expectations are rational with respect to qualitative aspects of the adjustment process (qualitatively rational expectations, QRE). QRE leave considerable scope for systematic errors in expectations formation. Adjustment under rational expectations is similar to QRE adjustment; however, only in the former case is the speed of adjustment optimal. Overshooting of capital stocks is possible and may be optimal. Comparative-static analysis shows an asymmetry between inflows of labor and capital: only capital inflows may cause a Rybczynski effect.     

外包与要素价格:从特定要素模型角度的分析

本文通过建立两种商品多种投入要素的特定要素小国模型来分析外包对要素价格的影响。如果将土地和熟练劳动视为特定要素,本文发现通过生产率效应和要素供给效应的传导机制,外包有利于特定要素所有者,不利于非熟练劳动,扩大了熟练劳动与非熟练劳动的相对工资,该结论与外包中间品的要素密集度、均衡状态时是否为完全专业化外包和资本的国际流动无关。即使非熟练劳动通过培训可以向熟练劳动升级,但并不一定会缓和本国的相对工资差距。     

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE IN THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTECTION: LEGISLATED V. ADMINISTERED PROTECTION

In endogenous tariff theory the outcome of the political process (the tariff) is a strictly private good from the perspective of the specific-factors in an industry. That is, the benefits from participation in the political process are fully captured by the participant group. We argue that this is an institutional assumption by showing that an alternative, administered protection, involves the enforcement of a rule that, once written, is applied to all industry groups, where applicable. Attempts to increase protection therefore result in benefits to all import competing industry groups. In a short-run neo-classical model of trade with no intermediate goods, you therefore get a political free rider problem that you do not get with legislated tariffs. Further, it is argued that the distinction between these forms of protection is of both empirical and philosophical relevance.     

Trade,capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore's unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore's unemployment rate.     

An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys

We examine the informational content of New Zealand data releases using a parametric dynamic factor model estimated with unbalanced real-time panels of quarterly data. The data are categorised into 21 different release blocks, allowing us to make 21 different factor model forecasts each quarter. We compare three of these factor model forecasts for real GDP growth, CPI inflation, non-tradable CPI inflation, and tradable CPI inflation with three different real-time forecasts made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand each quarter. We find that, at some horizons, the factor model produces forecasts of similar accuracy to the Reserve Bank's forecasts. Analysing the marginal value of each of the data releases reveals the importance of the business opinion survey data—the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion and the National Bank's Business Outlook survey—in determining how factor model predictions, and the uncertainty around those predictions, evolve through each quarter.     

商业模式与企业战略的关系与相互作用

商业模式是企业战略制定的结果、实施的依据,两者会共享某些要素。企业战略的本质特点是时序的、纵向的行动和过程,而商业模式的本质特点则是空间的、横向的方式和状态,两者之间具有交融关系。不同竞争优势来源之间具有互补性和关联性,它们与商业模式在关键要素构成和价值创造方面具有一致性。商业模式对竞争优势来源等企业战略具有系统整合作用,而企业战略和创新理论对商业模式具有理论支撑作用。     

Manufacturer's pricing strategy in a two-level supply chain with competing retailers and advertising cost dependent demand

The paper studies a two-echelon supply chain comprising one manufacturer and two competing retailers with advertising cost dependent demand. The manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader who specifies wholesale price for each retailer. The two retailers compete with each other in advertising and they have different sales costs. The manufacturer uses one of the following two pricing strategies: (i) setting the same wholesale price for both the retailers irrespective of the difference in their sales costs; (ii) setting different wholesale prices for the retailers depending on their sales costs. Two models are developed. In the first model, the manufacturer shares a fraction of each retailer's advertising cost while in the second model, the manufacturer does not share any retailer's advertising expenses. In both the models, we derive the retailers' and manufacturer's optimal strategies. A numerical example is given to illustrate the theoretical results developed in each model. Computational results show that it is always beneficial for the manufacturer to adopt different wholesale pricing strategy for the retailers.     

我国城镇居民边际消费倾向的实证研究

笔者对扩展线性支出系统(ELES)模型作了改进,用改进的ELES模型和面板数据估计出我国城镇居民2002年～2005年对各类消费品的基本需求,分别计算出各年各收入组对各种消费品和全部消费品的边际消费倾向,各年平均、各收入组平均的边际消费倾向,对各类边际消费倾向进行了简要分析.     

当前中国县域经济发展的经验模式探析

改革开放促使县域经济积极探索特殊发展之路。“苏南模式”、“珠江模式”、“温州模式”、“晋江模式”、“巩义模式”、“农安模式”及“义乌模式”等是各地在发展县域经济方面积极探索的成果,是基于中国实践的发展经济学的实验范本。这些经验模式建立在各自相对优势基础上,只有类型相同的借鉴性,并不是广泛推广的范式。研究分析这些模式,是为了在新形势下,面向未来,反思过去,学习借鉴,促进中国县域经济全面可持续发展。体制改革和创新才是促进县域经济可持续发展的基本保障和根本动力。     

Testing the exogeneity of economic time series: an application of innovation accounting

This paper proposes and presents an testable sufficient condition for testing the exogeneity of economic time series using Sims' (1980a) innovation accounting within an unconstrained vector autoregressive model. It is demonstrated that if each explanatory variable of a model is sequentially placed in the last position of the ordering of variables during orthogonalization, then strict exogeneity of the dependent variable with respect to each explanatory variable can be tested without any a priorirestrictions. The test is not biased by conditional correlations of other variables included in the model. The empirical demonstration within the VAR framework is based on a set of variables obtained by solving a macroeconomic model.     

BT(建设-转让)项目的合规性分析

根据实际采用的BT(建设-转让)项目模式情况,将其归纳为五种模式;对每种模式项目的建设参与各方的责任进行了简要概括;以有关的法律、法规为依据,对采用的BT项目模式的合规性进行了分析;可作为选择BT项目模式时参考。     

Universal Dumping of Homogeneous Products

Contrary to predictions from traditional comparative advantage analysis, a class of models with imperfect competition predicts intra-industry trade in homogeneous goods. Brander and Krugman offer a model with two countries and one firm in each country which generates the outcome that both firms dump into the export market (reciprocal dumping). The present paper determines the extent to which higher dimensionality alters this outcome by introducing a model with several firms in each of several countries. It is shown that dumping is universal. Thus, whenever trade occurs dumping occurs.     

业务外包分阶段风险因素识别与风险规避研究

依据决策过程理论,将业务外包划分为业务规划与选择、合同形成与签订、合同执行、外包结果评价四大阶段,并研究得出业务外包各阶段风险影响因素。基于四阶段决策过程,建立包含自律、合作和评判三大机制的分阶段风险规避模型,探讨涵括业务外包四阶段的全过程风险规避方法、步骤、措施、对策等。并从风险应对输入、风险应对控制及风险应对输出3个方面探讨了业务外包开发分阶段风险应对模型,为业务外包分阶段风险控制体系提供了重要补充。     

An integrated multi-objective model for allocating the limited sources in a multiple multi-stage lean supply chain

In this paper, a multiple objective programming model has been presented as a supply chain with the general purpose of adopting an integrated approach such that with making optimal decisions about the optimum allocation of limited sources in the supply chain, selection of the suppliers, production, distribution and supply programming yields, the least cost and the most income and finally maximizes the profit of the chain. The proposed model attempts to regard the integration condition very well with consideration of factors such as the conditions for suppliers, producers, and distributors as well as free relations of producers with each other in the direction of providing products through a process or even the products from each other. The presented model, for more adaptation to reality, is flexible against the dynamism of the demand, and it considers the effect of economic factors on decisions such as inflation. A numerical example is then given to show the applicability of the proposed model. This model covers the operational dimension of the chain very well with appropriate programming for production and controlling the inventories.     

Trust in triads: effects of exit, control, and learning

This paper provides theoretical background for some effects of social networks on trust. We study the implications of a model with rational actors in two settings with three actors. In the first setting, there are two trustees who are involved in transactions with one truster implying that the truster has an exit option. In the second setting, two trusters play with one trustee, which gives the trusters options for voice, i.e., complaining and informing each other about the trustee's behavior. We compare these models with a baseline model in which there is only one truster and one trustee. It turns out that the opportunities for placing and honoring trust do not change for the exit model compared to the baseline model. The opportunities for trust in the voice model differ from the baseline model only if both trusters inform each other at a rate that is high enough. Only if the possibilities for receiving information and transmitting information are large enough for both trusters, trust will increase due to the information exchange possibilities in the voice model.     

Vehicle choices, miles driven, and pollution policies

Mobile sources contribute large percentages of each pollutant, but technology is not yet available to measure and tax emissions from each vehicle. We build a behavioral model of household choices about vehicles and miles traveled. The ideal-but-unavailable emissions tax would encourage drivers to abate emissions through many behaviors, some of which involve market transactions that can be observed for feasible market incentives (such as a gas tax, subsidy to new cars, or tax by vehicle type). Our model can calculate behavioral effects of each such price and thus calculate car choices, miles, and emissions. A nested logit structure is used to model discrete choices among different vehicle bundles. We also consider continuous choices of miles driven and the age of each vehicle. We propose a consistent estimation method for both discrete and continuous demands in one step, to capture the interactive effects of simultaneous decisions. Results are compared with those of the traditional sequential estimation procedure.     

Strategic commitment and Cournot competition with labor-managed and profit-maximizing firms

This paper examines the behavior of a labor-managed income-per-member-maximizing firm and a profit-maximizing firm in a quantity-setting model with a strategic commitment. First, each firm independently decides whether or not to make a commitment to capacity. This capacity may subsequently be increased, but cannot be decreased. Hence, each firm’s investment choice changes its capital cost from a variable one into a fixed one. Second, each firm independently chooses its actual output. The paper examines the equilibrium of the quantity-setting mixed model and shows whether or not capacity investment is effective for the labor-managed firm and the profit-maximizing firm.     

Household bargaining over fertility: Theory and evidence from Malaysia

We develop and test a model of household bargaining over fertility when transfers between spouses are possible. The model makes precise how the fertility preferences of each spouse translate into fertility outcomes. We show this depends on whether or not spouses can commit to their future actions within marriage. If couples bargain with commitment, fertility outcomes take account of both spouses' fertility preferences and do not depend on the threat point in marital bargaining. If couples bargain without commitment, the influence of each spouse's fertility preference on fertility outcomes depends on the relevant threat point in marital bargaining, and the distribution of bargaining power. We test the models using household data from the Malaysia Family Life Survey. This data set contains information on each spouse's desired fertility level, as well as fertility outcomes. We exploit differences in threat points in marital bargaining across ethnic groups to help identify the underlying bargaining model. The evidence suggests couples bargain without commitment.     

Forecasting future demand for large-screen television sets using conjoint analysis with diffusion model

The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses two limitations of the basic Bass diffusion model: that it does not reflect competition among products nor does it forecast demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. The model consists of four steps. First, to investigate consumer preferences for product attributes, we use conjoint analysis to estimate the utility function of consumers. Next we estimate the dynamic price function of each competing product to reflect technological changes and the evolving market environment. Then we derive dynamic utility function by combining the static utility function and the price function. Finally, we forecast the sales of each product using estimated market share and sales data for each period, which are derived from the dynamic utility function and from the Bass diffusion model, respectively.We apply this model to South Korea's market for large-screen televisions. The results show that (1) consumers are sensitive to picture resolution and cost and (2) in the near future, should the market see the introduction of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs with screens larger than 50 inches, the high resolution and steep price drop of LCD will lead LCD TVs to capture a larger market share than TVs with other display types. Finally, our results show that TVs with 40-inch screens are preferred over TVs with larger screens.     

Market Moods and Network Dynamics of Stock Returns: The Bipolar Behavior

The authors show that a simple mood-separable preference in a network study of stock returns captures a variety of stylized facts regarding stocks’ provisional (ab)normal behavior. These behaviors are articulated in a multistate complete Euclidean network model that specifies the existence, direction, and magnitude of a self-organized dynamics for each individual stock during abnormal market moods. In the empirical setting, the authors apply suggested model along with 2 established visual approaches (multidimensional scaling and agglomerative hierarchical clustering) for benchmark purposes. Results reveal different levels of erratic return dynamics for each stock and the entire market in different abnormal market moods. The authors model and interpret these self-organized dynamics as evidence of stocks’ and market’s bipolar behavior.