Trends in statistically based quarterly cash-flow prediction models

This paper provides a succinct review and synthesis of the literature on statistically based quarterly cash-flow prediction models. It reviews extant work on quarterly cash-flow prediction models including: (1) complex, cross-sectionally estimated disaggregated-accrual models attributed to 0170 and 0175 and Bernard and Stober (1989), (2) parsimonious ARIMA models attributed to Hopwood and McKeown (1992), (3) disaggregated-accrual, time-series regression models attributed to Lorek and Willinger (1996), and (4) parsimonious ARIMA models with both adjacent and seasonal characteristics attributed to 0120 and 0130. Due to the unavailability of long-term cash-flow forecasts attributed to analysts, increased importance has been placed upon the development of statistically based cash-flow prediction models given their use in firm valuation. Specific recommendations are also provided to enhance future research efforts in refining extant statistically based quarterly cash-flow prediction models.     

Cash flow disaggregation and the prediction of future earnings

We examine the incremental information content of the components of cash flows from operations (CFO). Specifically the research question examined in this paper is whether models incorporating components of CFO to predict future earnings provide lower prediction errors than models incorporating simply net CFO. We use Australian data in this setting as all companies were required to provide information using the direct method during the sample period. We find that the cash flow components model is superior to an aggregate cash flow model in terms of explanatory power and predictive ability for future earnings; and that disclosure of non‐core (core) cash flows components is (not) useful in both respects. Our results are of relevance to investors and analysts in estimating earnings forecasts, managers of firms in regulators’ domains where choice is provided with respect to the disclosure of CFO and also to regulators’ deliberations on disclosure requirements and recommendations.     

Time series versus cross-sectionally derived predictions of future cash flows

We refine the analysis of annual cash-flow prediction models originally developed and tested by Dechow et al. (1998), Barth et al. (2001) and Kim and Kross (2005) using cash flow from operations data reported in accordance with FASB Standard No. 95 for a constant sample of 1111 firms. We estimated annual cash-flow prediction models both cross-sectionally and on a time-series basis to assess whether restricting firm-specific parameter estimation in the cross-sectional approach adversely affects predictive performance. Predictive ability is assessed via “out-of-sample” forecasts in an inter-temporal holdout period (2001-2005) not used in model estimation. We provide new evidence that significantly greater enhancement to predictive performance is obtained when cash-flow prediction models are estimated on a time-series basis versus cross-sectionally. These inferences are robust across one-year ahead cash-flow predictions or one-thru-five-year ahead predictions. We find that the relative accuracy of cash-flow predictions is unaffected by whether the aforementioned prediction models employ cash flows or net earnings as independent variables. Finally, we also provide evidence that the predictive ability of cash flows is highly sensitive to firm size. That is, relatively larger firms provide significantly more accurate cash-flow predictions than those of smaller firms across cash-flow prediction models.     

Managerial conservatism and corporate policies

This paper investigates how conservative managers make corporate decisions. Motivated by psychology research, we use handwritten signatures (i.e., emotionally restraint disclosure styles) as a proxy for CEO conservatism. We find that firms with conservative CEOs engage more with safer investments (capital expenditures), engage less with risky policies (Research & Development expenses and debt financing), hold more cash, are less likely to pay cash dividends, and more likely to use stock repurchase schemes. We use the same proxy for CFO conservatism. We find that CFO conservatism is a better determinant than CEO conservatism for cash holding and financing policies, but the reverse is true for investment policies. Conservative CFOs prefer long-term debt to short-term debt.     

Management of operating cash flows before and after the scandals in the early 2000s: An examination of meeting or beating analyst cash flow forecasts*

We examine whether the stock market premium assigned to meeting or beating analyst estimates of cash flows from operations (hereafter, “CFO”) has changed after the publicized accounting scandals in the early 2000 s (“post-scandals period”). We also examine whether firms’ CFO management behavior associated with meeting or beating analyst CFO forecasts has changed after the scandals. We find that the market reward for firms that meet or just beat analyst CFO forecasts (“small beaters”) has increased in the post-scandals period, especially when the accuracy of CFO forecasts is relatively high. We also find that the extent of CFO management engaged in by small beaters has increased after the accounting scandals and that these firms appear to resort to the timing of CFO. Further, we find evidence that the “underpricing” of CFO is weaker in the post-scandals period that exhibits a greater extent of CFO management than before, suggesting that the reduction in the underpricing of CFO in the post-scandals period is at least partially due to CFO management. Overall, our findings suggest that firms responded to the rising importance of cash flow information after a series of accounting scandals by inflating reported CFO to a larger extent than they did before.     

Statistically based quarterly earnings expectation models for nonseasonal firms

We present empirical evidence on the relative predictive power of statistically based quarterly earnings expectation models for firms that are characterized as nonseasonal in nature. We are particularly interested in nonseasonal firms for two reasons. First, it appears that a sizable and growing percentage of firms exhibit quarterly earnings patterns that are clearly nonseasonal in nature. We present new evidence that is consistent with this trend. Specifically, 36% of our sample firms (n = 296) are nonseasonal compared to 12% reported in Lorek and Bathke (J Acc Res 22:369–379, 1984) (n = 29); 17% in Brown and Han (J Acc Res 38:149–164, 2000) (n = 155); and 28.2% in Bathke et al. (J Business Inquiry 5:39–49, 2006) (n = 167). Second, we also find that 43.6% of the nonseasonal firms in our sample have no analyst coverage. Therefore, interest in the predictive ability of statistically based models for such firms is greatly enhanced. Our predictive findings indicate that the random walk model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step ahead quarterly earnings predictions across 40 quarters in the 1994–2003 holdout period than the first-order autoregressive model popularized in the literature. We attribute the superior performance of the random walk model to at least three contributing factors: (1) its parsimonious nature; (2) the reduced levels of autocorrelation observed in our quarterly earnings data relative to previous work; and (3) a significantly greater frequency of loss quarters evidenced by nonseasonal versus seasonal firms.

The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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Cross-sectional estimation of abnormal accruals using quarterly and annual data: effectiveness in detecting event-specific earnings management

This paper addresses certain methodological issues that arise in estimating abnormal (or discretionary) accruals for detection of event-specific earnings management. Unlike prior studies (e.g., Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney, 1995; Guay, Kothari, and Watts, 1996) that rely primarily on time-series models, we focus on the specification of cross-sectional models of expected accruals using quarterly as well as annual data. Perhaps more importantly, we present a variation of the Jones model that is shown to be well specified for all cash flow levels. We show that the cross-sectional Jones model yields systematically positive (negative) estimates of abnormal accruals for firms whose cash flows are below (above) their industry median. Using mean squared prediction errors as well as simulation analysis, we show that our model is more powerful than the cross-sectional Jones model in detecting earnings management. In addition, we examine differences in the power of current accrual models in detecting earnings management across audited and unaudited quarters.     

Has the value of cash increased over time?

We document a dramatic increase in the market valuation of cash holdings of US firms from 1988 to 2013. The value of one dollar of cash has increased by $0.019 per year during the period, indicating that shareholders place more value on cash in recent years. We also find that the increasing trend in cash value is driven mainly by increases in institutional shareholdings and accounting conservatism. We further decompose cash change into cash flows from operation (CFO) and cash flows from investing and financing activities, and find that CFO is a significant driver of the increasing trend in cash value.     

The Impact of Mandated Cash Flow Disclosure on Bid‐Ask Spreads

Abstract:   This study provides evidence that mandatory cash flow disclosure required by Approved Australian Accounting Standard AASB 1026, Statement of Cash Flows (June 1992) was associated with a decline in bid‐ask spreads following the introduction of the regulation, even after controlling for changes in trading volume and price volatility. More pronounced decreases in bid‐ask spreads were associated with firms having lower correlations between reported CFO and estimates of CFO using balance sheet reconstructions. We conclude that mandatory cash flow disclosure reduces information asymmetry across market participants.     

Explaining the accrual anomaly by market expectations of future returns and earnings

This study examines the accrual anomaly under the framework of the Campbell [Campbell, J.Y. (1991). A variance decomposition for stock returns. Economic Journal 101 (405), 157-179.] model. The Campbell (1991) model shows that realized asset returns are a joint function of 1) expected returns, 2) revisions in market expected future returns (i.e., return news), and 3) revisions in market expected future cash flows (i.e., cash flow news). The current study adopts the Easton [Easton, P. (2004). PE ratios, PEG ratios, and estimating the implied expected rate of return on equity capital. The Accounting Review 79 (1), 73-96.] model to estimate proxies for expected returns, return news, and cash flow news. The results show that firms with low accruals have lower expected returns than firms with high accruals, which is contradictory to prior research that argues that firms with low accruals are more risky. However, investors underestimate (overestimate) future earnings growth, a proxy for cash flow growth, for low (high) accrual firms. Further analysis demonstrates that earnings news (proxy for cash flow news) plays a major role in explaining abnormal returns associated with the accrual anomaly.     

The Relation Between SFAS No. 95 Cash Flows From Operations and Credit Risk

This study examines the relevance of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 95 operating cash flow disclosures for assessing a primary component of firm risk, namely credit risk. We find that SFAS No. 95 operating cash flows is an important determinant of credit risk, measured by debt ratings, incremental to other profitability and risk–related information. We also find that operating cash flows have a stronger incremental relation to credit risk for firms with a larger proportion of long–term debt and larger firms with lower operating uncertainty. Interestingly, cash flows appear to have less incremental importance for firms in high tech and regulated industries.     

Articulation in cash flow statements: a resource for financial accounting courses

Recent accounting research (Bahnson, P., Miller, P., & Budge, B. (1996). Nonarticulation in cash flow statements and implications for education, research and practice. Accounting Horizons, 10, 1–15 has shown that firms implementing the indirect method for reporting cash flows under SFAS 95 rarely produce financial statements that articulate cleanly. The purposes of this paper are (1) to provide financial accounting educators with a list of companies for which articulation does exist, (2) to describe the process by which educators can update the list in the future, or modify it to suit their own preferences, and (3) to present an analysis of firms’ reporting practices on the cash flow statement, which may be of interest to more advanced students studying the complexities of the statement of cash flows. This analysis of reporting practices involves an assessment of the articulation of individual COMPUSTAT line items (e.g. inventory) and subsets of line items (e.g. inventory, receivables, deferred taxes, and depreciation) for the 1998 data year. The findings indicate that relatively few firms report consistent values for single line items and that very few firms report consistent values across subsets of line items. Although the rate of articulation decreases as firm size, and hence reporting complexity, increases, 74 large, publicly-traded firms for which clean articulation does exist were identified. This list of firms should prove useful to introductory accounting educators who use real-world examples for classroom purposes.     

An Empirical Examination of Cash Flow Measures

In recent years in the United States and Canada, there has been an increasing interest in cash flow reporting and a strengthening belief that information on cash flows is valued in the marketplace. However, little research has been devoted to the issue. Regulatory bodies in the U.S. (Financial Accounting Standards Board) and Canada(Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants) require that an enterprise should disclose separately cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities in their cash flow statements. The data in the cash flow statements are expected to help investors assess the firm's liquidity, financial flexibility and risk. On the other hand, the British Accounting Standards Committee (ASC) does not require a statement of cash flows. This study employs a cross-sectional equity valuation model to examine the association of cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities with security prices. A sample of 403 U.S. firms is used for the ten-year period of 1976–85. The results of this study indicate that there exists a strong association between the various cash flow components included in the cash flow statements and the market value of the firm.     

THE IMPACT OF THE QUALITY OF EARNINGS ON THE VALUATION RELEVANCE OF CASH FLOW DISCLOSURES

This study investigates whether the ‘quality of earnings’, defined as the relationship between profitability and cash generating ability, is a conditioning factor with regard to the valuation relevance of cash flow disclosures. The study is performed on a sample of 197 British firms employing data over a 23-year period. The results of the study support the contention that the valuation relevance of cash flow disclosures is conditional upon the ‘quality of earnings’, as previously defined. Specifically, the decomposition of unexpected earnings into its cash flow and accruals components provides incremental information content to earnings when the firm-specific time-series correlation between earnings and cash flows is low. Furthermore, the cash flow ‘surprise’ is valued more than the accruals ‘surprise’ when the firm-specific time-series correlation between earnings and cash flows is low.     

企业集团财务管控与上市公司现金持有水平研究

与现有基于上市公司单个企业的研究不同,本文以股改后2006—2009年沪深股市3958个A股上市公司为样本,考察了企业集团财务管控对上市公司现金持有水平的影响。实证发现集团控股上市公司现金持有水平较高,国有集团控股的更高。集团财务管控方式显著影响上市公司现金持有水平,集团选派CFO使之显著降低,拥有财务公司的集团选派CFO使之降幅更大,高达30%。财务公司对现金持有水平影响不显著,但按CFO选派、ERP、产权性质分组后发现,当集团选派CFO或上市公司有ERP财务系统或民营控股时,财务公司显著降低上市公司现金持有水平。上市公司ERP财务信息系统能够提升公司现金管理水平,提高其现金持有水平,而集团选派的CFO可能会通过财务公司和ERP配置现金,降低其控股上市公司现金持有水平。     

Analysts versus time-series forecasts of quarterly earnings: A maintained hypothesis revisited

We re-examine the maintained hypothesis of analysts' quarterly earnings per share (EPS) superiority versus ARIMA time-series forecasts. While our empirical results are consistent with overall analysts' dominance, they suggest a more contextual interpretation of this important relationship. Specifically, we find that for a relatively large number of cases (approximately 40%) ARIMA time-series forecasts of quarterly EPS are equal to or more accurate than consensus analysts' forecasts. Moreover, the percentage of time-series superiority increases: (1) for longer forecast horizons, (2) as firm size decreases, and (3) for high-technology firms. Due to the data demands that ARIMA forecasting requires we also examine using a seasonal random walk (SRW) model that requires only one year of data to create quarterly forecasts. Although the ARIMA time-series model results in a significant reduction in sample size it dominates the SRW model. Our findings support the analyst dominance over time series models but suggest that ARIMA time-series models may provide useful input to researchers seeking quarterly EPS expectation models for certain types of firms.     

Do Firms Manage Fair Value Estimates? An Examination of SFAS 142 Goodwill Impairments

Abstract:  I find that goodwill write-offs under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 142 (SFAS 142) are associated with future expected cash flows as mandated by the standard. However, there are indications that goodwill write-offs lag behind the economic impairment of goodwill. Additional analysis reveals that the association between goodwill write-offs and future cash flows is insignificant for firms with contemporaneous restructuring. I hypothesize that this finding is due to agency-based motives. Finally, I examine a sample of non-impairment firms in which there are indications that goodwill is impaired. I fail to find convincing evidence that these firms are opportunistically avoiding impairments.