人民币实际汇率变动与FDI流入结构：理论模型与实证分析

随着FDI流入我国规模的扩大,引资结构也发生了很大的变化。同时,伴随着我国经济实力的增强,FDI流入已从高速成长期进入成熟期,因此,人民币汇率变动对FDI的影响也表现出一定的复杂性。将FDI流入我国的类型划分为贸易型与非贸易型,从投资商谋求利润最大化的微观视角,建立人民币汇率变动与不同类型的FDI之间关系的理论模型。进一步地,利用2006-2011年的月度数据对理论模型的观点进行了验证。研究结果显示,我国制造业FDI与服务业FDI均与人民币汇率呈现正相关关系,但是短期还表现为一定的负相关性。两行业FDI流入成为人民币汇率变动的重要因素。     

Are workers more vulnerable in tradable industries?

Reduced trade barriers and lower costs of transportation and information have meant that a growing part of the economy has been exposed to international trade. In particular, this is the case in the service sector. We divide the service sector into a tradable and a non-tradable part using an approach to identify tradable industries utilizing a measure of regional concentration of production. We examine whether the probability of displacement is higher and income losses after displacement greater for workers in tradable services and manufacturing (tradable) than in non-tradable services. We also analyze whether the probability of re-employment is higher for workers displaced from tradable services and manufacturing than from non-tradable services. We find that in the 2000s the probability of displacement is relatively high in tradable services in comparison to non-tradable services and manufacturing. On the other hand, the probability of re-employment is higher for those displaced from tradable services. The largest income losses are found for those who had been displaced from manufacturing. Interestingly, the income losses of those displaced from manufacturing seems mainly to be due to longer spells of non-employment, whereas for those displaced in tradable services lower wages in their new jobs compared to their pre-displacement jobs appears to play a larger role.     

高等教育的国际贸易性及其决定因素

高等教育具有多种社会属性,高等教育的国际贸易性反映着高等教育与生产交换的一种关系,是高等教育国际服务贸易理论研究中的基础性问题。高等教育贸易性,是指高等教育服务进入国际市场交易的可能性与可行性,即参与国际贸易的潜在能力和可贸易程度。其决定因素有产业性因素、比较性因素、技术性因素和制度性因素。     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

人民币对美元实际汇率变化:巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应还是一价定律偏离?

对人民币实际汇率进行分解研究发现,可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的相对价格变动对实际汇率波动的解释能力远小于可贸易品偏离一价定律因素,表明人民币对美元实际汇率变动主要受可贸易品价格波动的影响。进一步放松一价定律假设并在传统的巴萨效应检验模型中加入一价定律偏离因素后,进行回归分析发现,一价定律偏离因素是人民币实际汇率波动的主要影响因素,而巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应仅在1994年以后的样本区间才显著。本文的研究表明,相对一价定律偏离因素,巴萨效应对实际汇率波动的影响是次要的。     

Product price differences across countries: determinants and effects

A substantial part of international differences in prices of individual products, both goods and services, can be explained by differences in per capita income, wage compression, or low wage dispersion among low-wage workers, and exchange rate fluctuations. Higher per capita income is associated with higher prices and higher wage dispersion with lower prices. The effects of higher income and wage dispersion are moderated for the more tradable products. The effects of wage dispersion, on the other hand, are magnified for the more labor-intensive products, particularly low-skill services. The differences in prices across countries are reflected in differences in the composition of consumption. Countries in which prices of labor-intensive services are very high, such as the Nordic countries, consume much less of them. For some services, the shares of GDP consumed in high-price countries are less than 20% of the shares in low-price countries. Since these are services of very low tradability, the low consumption levels of these services imply low employment in them.     

Impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks: Theory and global empirics

This paper offers two points on the impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks. (1) A conceptual model where behavioural frictions – rational inattentiveness and bounded expectations – interact with uncertainty, generating aggregate fluctuations. Central banks can target these behavioural frictions to stabilise output and prices. (2) Empirical findings from a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Output and inflation slow in response to uncertainty shocks. Government bond yields moderate and exchange rates depreciate, suggesting within-country and between-country flight-to-safety respectively. Exchange rate appreciation shocks generate similar responses. The Malaysia-specific analysis finds divergent responses in employment and output, likely reflecting compositional effects in more productive tradable and less productive non-tradable sectors.     

汇率变动对工资和就业结构影响的实证分析

本文由Frenkel两部门理论模型,采用IMF提供的人民币对美元实际汇率数据,通过实证分析发现,实际汇率升值会显著减少贸易部门就业,即人民币升值使贸易部门就业人数显著减少,非贸易部门第二产业工人就业人数会增加,对第三产业工人就业影响不大,但就业工人实际工资水平都会有所提高。所以本文的结论是,人民币升值能提升中低阶层福利水平,支持人民币升值。     

Taiwan's External Imbalance and Structural Adjustment: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

Taiwan's trade surplus reached about one-fifth of GNP by 1986, becoming the source of attention and criticism from the international community. Realizing it is to her own benefit to reduce the surplus, and also in order to ease outside pressure, Taiwan started to take measures of macroeconomic adjustments, including currency appreciation and expansionary fiscal policies. Trade surplus was reduced to 8.1% of GNP by 1989, as a result of increases in domestic demand accompanied by decreases in demand from abroad. At the same time the sectoral structure of Taiwan's economy changed: the share of non-tradable sectors (mainly construction and services) expanded while that of the tradable ones (agriculture and manufacturing) shrank. This paper uses a 27-sector computable general equilibrium model to investigate the comparative statics of changes in Taiwan's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in 1989. Results of the model's counter factual policy simulations indicate expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are effective in reducing the external imbalance. In particular if public investment and money supply were raised by respectively 20% and 10% above the actual values, current account surplus as a percentage of GNP could be reduced from 8.52% to 6.91% in that year, and resources shifts from the tradable to the non-tradable sectors would be strengthened. They also indicate that to achieve a given target of reduction in external imbalance, there are trade-offs between expansionary fiscal policies and currency appreciation and between expansionary monetary policies and currency appreciation. For instance to reduce the current account surplus ratio to 5.04 of GNP, a 15% (10%) increase in public investment (money supply) would have to be accompanied by a 31% (29%) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.     

Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa–Samuelson effect?

Japan's real exchange rate appreciation during the post-WWII manufacturing-led growth period has been regarded as a classical example of the Balassa–Samuelson effect. We choose the most conspicuous sub-period—1956–1970—to confirm the effect. Japan was in a rapid growth period under the U.S. dollar peg (real GDP growth, 9.7% per annum). The nominal anchor was weak as Japan's inflation rate (GDP deflator-based, 5.4%) was markedly higher than the U.S. rate (2.6%) during the 15-year period. The decomposition of the annual 2.7% (geometric) Japan–U.S. inflation rate gap (real exchange rate appreciation of the Japanese yen) reveals that the Balassa–Samuelson effect accounted for 0.7%; most of the real exchange rate appreciation (1.7%) was attributed to greater price increases in Japan's tradables. Although Japan's tradable sector achieved high TFP growth, the joint effect of the tradable–nontradable TFP growth difference between the two economies was too small to generate a sizable Balassa–Samuelson effect. Japan's example may suggest that even in rapidly growing economies, the magnitude of the effect in long-run real exchange rate appreciation is generally modest.     

Exchange market pressure, trade, sovereign credit ratings, and U.S. exports in banking services

As a leader in providing banking services in the global market, it is important to understand the variables that influence U.S. exports in banking services. This paper examines the influence that trade, sovereign credit ratings, and exchange market pressure have on U.S. exports of banking services. The empirical evidence indicates that higher trade activity and a higher sovereign credit rating reduce U.S. exports of banking services. The results also suggest that exchange market pressure positively affects U.S. exports of banking services. Tests for individual and random effects across units suggest most of the variation in the estimators is within units.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

Changing economic geography and vertical linkages in Japan

In Japan, the manufacturing has become geographically dispersed in the 1990s, when the import share has risen after the historic exchange rate appreciation. As is consistent with the interpretation that import penetration undermines regional input–output linkages, our regressions detect the significant decline of industrial concentrations previously established near output absorbers, especially in industries with high import share growths. This paper also finds that local knowledge spillovers and immobile specialized labor affect regional growth. Thus, while regional demand of tradable outputs matters less, regional supply of inputs, especially non-tradable inputs, remains critical for manufacturing locations. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 561–581.     

股权分置改革中的逆向选择问题研究

本文通过建立均衡对价模型,并构造ASI指数测算出股改中逆向选择的程度,研究了非流通股比例、股改前非流通股和流通股价值的相对差异、公司业绩、股改时段四个因素与逆向选择程度之间的关系。从股权集中和流通性折价切入,解释了前两个因素与逆向选择程度间的关系。通过行为金融学的理论,分析了非流通股股东如何利用流通股股东的非理性心理,解释了公司业绩良莠、股改阶段差异与逆向选择程度变化之间的关系。     

Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach

This study examines the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) by using a meta‐analysis. We filter out publication bias within the 1,329 estimates, pooled from 101 studies and employ Bayesian Model Averaging to reduce model uncertainty and explain the existing heterogeneity. The results reveal that the exchange rate system, estimation characteristics, and the modeling approach have an important and noticeable influence on the statistical significance and direction of the estimates. On one hand, the impact of exchange rate volatility is relatively lower in countries with higher trade openness, human capital and better protection of intellectual property rights. On the other hand, greater geographical distance and technology gap between the host and the home economy are associated with greater uncertainty and thus accentuate the negative causality between exchange rate volatility and FDI. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the impact of the exchange rate and its volatility on FDI across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices.     

美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

多维视角下美中贸易巨额逆差成因的实证研究

近年来,美中贸易逆差额不断攀升导致双边贸易争端此起彼伏,严重影响了两国正常的经贸关系和政治互信。美方将贸易失衡归咎为人民币汇率,而中方则指出两国贸易失衡的症结并非人民币汇率,压迫人民币升值的做法并不能从根本上解决问题,双方冲突和利益博弈行为日趋严重。在此背景下,作者以1990-2011年的美中贸易、汇率等相关数据为研究对象,从经济和政治因素出发,将人民币汇率、国际投资、全球分工、统计误差和消费储蓄等因素纳入分析,从多维视角对美中贸易逆差成因进行了定量实证分析。研究发现,美中贸易逆差的成因缘自美国、东盟对中国直接投资以及中国香港、台湾和澳门地区对中国内地的直接投资、双方的统计误差以及人民币汇率三组因素,人民币汇率并非美中贸易逆差的主要因素。在基于资产所有权的贸易净额统计方法下,作者对美中贸易的历年贸易净额进行了重新估算。美方数据结果显示,在美国报道的对中国的贸易逆差中,其数据统计被夸大;而中方数据结果显示,中国直到2006年才从对美贸易逆差转为顺差。作者认为,人民币汇率并非美中贸易失衡的主要因素,该问题之所以争论不断,主要是源于美方经济问题政治化的诉求。     

Deflation in China

This article investigates the causes of deflation China has experienced since 1998. The analysis is based on a theoretical model which makes the distinction between tradable and non-tradable goods and on the estimation of a reduced equation of consumer price variations for the period 1986–2002. The empirical results corroborate the theoretical predictions. The main conclusion is that the slowing down of inflation and the fall of prices are chiefly explained by Chinese macroeconomic policy. Moreover and contrary to current opinion we find that deflation is partly due to the deceleration of productivity growth in the tradable sector.     

The Improvement in Indonesia's Real Resource Alance, 1986–89: Absorption,Switching and Growth Effects 1

This paper seeks to quantify the immediate determinants of the large improvement in Indonesia's real resource balance (balance of trade in goods and services at constant prices) over the period 1986–89. The paper uses a framework which distinguishes between tradable and non-tradable products to decompose the change in the real resource balance into the effects of changes in absorption, expenditure-switching, output-switching and economic growth. The results show that each of the three annual increases in the real resource balance between 1986 and 1989 was the outcome of positive growth and expenditure-switching effects dominating negative absorption and output-switching effects.