我国个人信用评分的发展趋势

随着经济的飞速发展和新巴塞尔资本协议在全球迅速推进,我国个人信用评分的重要性日益加强。由于个人信用的动态变化、信用评分目的转变,采用动态信用评分方法势在必行。     

Assessing new empirical industrial organization (NEIO) methods: The cases of five industries

The methods proposed in the new empirical industrial organization (NEIO) literature have made significant contributions to our understanding of competitive behavior. However, these methods have yet to be compared with each other for their performance in explaining and diagnosing competitive market conduct. This inter-method comparison is important because conclusions about competitive behavior based on these methods have significant strategic as well as policy implications for firms. Our objective in this paper is to examine the performance of these different NEIO methods in terms of their discriminatory power, ability to identify strategic variables, and robustness in estimation. For empirical demonstration, we use data from diverse industries such as microprocessors, personal computers, facial tissue, disposable diapers and automobiles. Our results suggest that two commonly used NEIO methods-conjectural variation and non-nested model comparison-exhibit quite good convergence with each other and are consistent with a traditional time series method. This suggests that simpler methods such as conjectural variations deserve more credit. We also find that using these methods in tandem provides valuable additional information that may not be available when using any one method alone. While the emphasis in this study is on comparing different methods of analyzing competitive interaction, the findings also reveal some substantive insights about each market studied.     

Islamic business scorecard and the screening of Islamic businesses in a cross‐country setting

Screening of shari'ah compliant firms is incomplete without the inclusion of ethical and social responsibilities. The existing “activity screen” does not directly capture the ethical and social footprints of firms. The purpose of this study is to create and test an Islamic business scorecard that combines activity, ethical, and social responsibilities that Islamic businesses must comply with. This new Islamic business scorecard replaces the existing activity screens and is added to the financial screens to create an integrated business screening mechanism to identify shari'ah compliant firms. This study utilizes data from a sample of 410 shari'ah compliant companies listed with stock exchanges in Malaysia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Out of the five newly developed constructs of the Islamic business scorecard, the results indicate Islamic firms are less committed to social responsibilities and tend to push forward economic responsibilities that focus on profitability and growth. Of the three countries, this study reports Malaysian firms have the highest compliance scores, while Bangladesh displays characteristics of the “next‐big shari'ah destination”. Financial screens are more important than the Islamic business scorecard for firms in the construction, industrial, technology, and trading/services sectors. Because of its connection with the economic, ethical, and social dimensions, the scorecard helps to identify the true nature of shari'ah compliance as a useful decision tool for investors and policymakers.     

Some Ethical Considerations on the use of Criminal Records in the Labor Market: in Defense of a New Practice

Employers’ access to and use of criminal records as a selection mechanism in the labor market makes it far more difficult for ex-offenders to find jobs, especially regular, well-paid jobs, than those without criminal convictions. The paper asks whether there is anything morally problematic about this practice. The aims of the paper are twofold. First, arguments based on premises of wrongful discrimination against the current, commonest use of criminal records are critically discussed. It is argued that employers do not necessarily engage in morally wrongful discrimination against job applicants when they use criminal records in recruitment screening, but it is also argued that ex-offenders who apply for jobs are subject to what can be called “structural and morally wrongful discrimination” when laws allow employers to request (or directly access) a job applicant’s full criminal record. Second, preliminary proposals on how criminal records can be used by employers in a way that avoids wrongful structural discrimination of ex-offenders will be presented and critically assessed. I suggest that it should be lawful for an employer to access an applicant’s criminal records only where there is a relevant and special match or link between the crime on the records and the job being applied for and the crime is serious. This proposal is defended against two objections, one based on concerns about crime prevention and the other based on the employer’s interest in knowing whom not to hire.     

Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis

We investigate the role of (business) collateral and (personal) guarantees alongside small and medium enterprise (SME), lending bank and loan characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sectors, and geographic locations while controlling for unobserved time effects in predicting default at the peak of the financial crisis. First, we find a positive relation between collateral and default, and a negative relation between guarantees and default. Second, we find a negative relation between the joint influence of collateral and high credit score, and a positive relation between the joint influence of collateral and low credit score and default. We also find a negative relation between the joint influence of guarantees and high credit score. These findings are relevant for SME policies aimed at facilitating access to credit, reducing the cost of borrowing, and decreasing default; risk management of banks; and the application of theories of financial economics in the context of a financial crisis.     

Weight Discrimination in the American Workplace: Ethical Issues and Analysis

Research providing consistent evidence of pervasive discrimination against overweight job applicants and employees in the American workplace raises important questions for organizational stakeholders. To what extent is the disparate treatment of job applicants or employees based on their weight ethically justified? Are there aspects of weight discrimination that make it more acceptable than discrimination based on other characteristics, such as race or gender? What operational steps can employers take to address concerns regarding the ethical treatment of overweight individuals in the workplace? This article investigates these and related questions. Its purpose is to provide information and analysis that will assist organizations in formulating ethical responses to a widespread phenomenon: weight discrimination in the workplace. Although its focus is the American workplace, the proposed employer ethical obligations and the practical guidance that is provided are viewed as generalizing across countries and cultures.     

Gender bias and the availability of business loans

Social structure, values, and gender socialization have undoubtedly disadvantaged women in the process of preparing for a career in business, and there is a widely held view that women are subject to discrimination by financial institutions. However, the “evidence” to verify this belief has largely been from studies where women have claimed that they were subject to discrimination in the loan situation, without either supporting evidence, or control data from a sample of male loan applicants.Two experiments were carried out, using a Goldberg type procedure, to test the belief that women are unfairly discriminated against when seeking a loan to establish a business venture. Carefully constructed scenarios of an application for loan finance to purchase a commercial enterprise were mailed to loan officers of major trading bank branches. The scenarios were identical in all respects except for the sex and education level of applicants. Loan officers were asked whether or not they would approve loan finance for the proposed business purchase and to indicate factors that contributed to their decisions.Significant differences in response to female and male applicants were observed in both experiments. In Experiment I (University education) both sexes were equally likely to obtain a loan, but “education” was considered a more important factor for the female applicant than for the male. In Experiment II (High school education) the female applicant was less likely to obtain a loan than the male applicant.The results support the widely held perception that women can experience gender discrimination when seeking start-up capital. Such discriminatory behavior by loan officers may not be, and probably is not, intentional. Rather, the pervasiveness of the social construction of differential gender roles in western culture is such that it is more likely that discrimination is unconscious, and consequently more difficult to change.     

The impact of international diversification on credit scores: Evidence from the UK

Despite the great deal of previous research into international diversification, we know little about the impact of international diversification on firms’ credit scores. Drawing upon the resource-based view and transaction cost economics, we examine the relationship between international diversification and credit scores by using a large sample of 6,557 UK firms between 2016 and 2017. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between international diversification and firms’ credit scores, indicating that the effect of international diversification on credit scores is initially positive but becomes negative with over-diversification. In addition, we find that R&D intensity positively moderates the relationship between international diversification and credit score, implying that the credit scores of highly diversified firms improve as they increase their investment in R&D. Further analysis suggests that a firm’s credit score becomes less dependent on international diversification for large firms, firms in concentrated industries, firms in the manufacturing sector, and firms distant from key metropolitan areas, such as London.     

Quebec young adults’ use of and knowledge of credit

This research aimed to study young adults’ use of and knowledge of credit. A large representative sample of Quebec young adults aged 18–29 years participated in a telephone survey. Results reveal that their use of credit has increased remarkably over the last decade. The mean score on the credit knowledge scale used in this study is 49.4% for the entire group. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis show that credit knowledge is positively related to personal income, number of debts, amount of total debt, number of credit cards and favourable attitude towards credit and debts. Young adults reporting either personal experience or family and relatives as their main source of learning about personal finances were found to have a lower level of knowledge about credit in general than those reporting having learned of this subject from courses, the media or financial counsellors. The learning of basic knowledge about credit and personal finances, with stress on the sensible use of credit, should be part of the educational agenda for young consumers.     

个人信用行为的博弈分析

市场经济本质上就是信用经济,信用是市场经济发展的基础,而个人信用又是整个社会信用的基础。通过构建一个博弈模型分析个人信用是如何通过交易者双方一次性博弈、重复博弈和信号传递而形成的。基于此,在交易者双方中引入政府个人信用监督机关,构建出有个人信用监督机关的博弈模型。基于对以上博弈模型的分析,提出构建我国个人信用制度体系的对策。     

Credit Scoring and Loan Default

A metric of credit score performance is developed to study the usage and performance of credit scoring in the loan origination process. We examine the performance of origination FICO scores as measures of ex ante borrower creditworthiness using loan‐level data on ex post performance of subprime mortgages. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The data suggest a trend of increased emphasis on higher credit scores accompanying a trend of increased riskiness in other origination attributes. Over time, this increased emphasis on credit scoring coincided with deterioration in FICO performance largely because of the fact that higher credit score originations of later cohorts were more likely to have riskier attributes. However, controlling for other attributes on originations and changes in economic conditions, we find that, as measures of borrower ranking, FICO performance on subprime loans over the years remains fairly stable.     

农村信贷需求与供给的研究方法综述

当前,我国研究农村信贷供需问题所采用的方法很多,其中,计量经济学分析法及调查研究法倍受学者们青睐。此外,数据包络分析法、博弈论分析法、马斯洛需求理论法等研究方法也得到了学者们的广泛应用。国内学者在研究农村信贷供需方面时所使用的方法都是建立在国外理论模型基础上的,缺乏基于我国农村信贷市场实际的自主的理论模型。     

创业企业信用风险度量模型与实证研究

本文针对创业企业这一特殊的企业群体,在对信用风险度量的相关方法、模型进行系统回顾和比较研究的基础上,构建了适合我国创业企业信用风险度量的最可行方法.文章从抽样阶段开始,运用逐步多元判别分析法对处于不同生命阶段的创业企业筛选出具有区别力的分析变量,对不同生命阶段的企业建立不同的信用风险判别模型,并进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,这一方法在创业企业信用风险分析方面具有较好的可行性.     

个人信用管理模式的建立和运用

信用是现代市场经济运行和发展的重要要素之一 ,信用的缺失和没有建立完善的信用管理体系是制约我国经济健康、持续发展的重大障碍。随着我国加入WTO后 ,市场经济的进一步发展和完善 ,个人金融服务的效率需不断提高。要求建立完善的个人信用体系和个人信用管理模式 ,从而加强对个人信用资源的整合和利用。     

The effect of credit card versus mobile payment on convenience and consumers’ willingness to pay

Extant literature on payment methods has focused on comparing cash and credit cards and emphasized the lower pain of paying (i.e., fewer negative consequences) for the latter. This finding, in turn, explains why consumers express higher willingness to pay (WTP) when paying with credit cards. The current study introduces mobile technology as a new payment method to this literature. Specifically, it highlights convenience as a positive driver of increased WTP for mobile payment. However, for consumers to perceive mobile payment as convenient, a personal adoption (enabled through an existing system in the respective country market) is necessary. A set of three studies across several country markets tests these assumptions empirically. Convenience emerges as a new mediator between mobile payment and increased WTP, contingent on personal adoption. These findings thus extend extant literature on the mechanisms consumers use with different payment methods, and they offer differentiated recommendations regarding payment channels for country managers.     

Adding insult to injury: consumer experiences of being denied credit

To inspire confidence in consumer credit and improve outcomes for consumers, negative experiences such as being denied credit must be handled appropriately. We conducted an online survey with 298 UK citizens who had a credit application denied to gain a better understanding of their experience of being denied credit. We found that privacy issues make this experience more upsetting for consumers than necessary. When being denied credit, respondents are most concerned about (1) being denied credit ‘in public’; and (2) not being informed about the reasons why they are denied. Only 23% of our respondents knew why they had been denied; 116 (62%) believed they had been denied credit because of their credit record, but 28% had never checked it. Out of the 194 respondents who had checked their record, 38 identified errors in their credit reports, and in 14 of these cases (38%) debts that they had paid off were incorrectly listed as outstanding. Based on our findings, we propose several changes to the credit application process: (1) providing sensitive but helpful information in a private manner, e.g. a preview of their credit score before they commit a loan application; (2) credit denial notifications with information on what to do next; and (3) giving applicants more information about checking their credit report and who to contact for correcting errors.     

个人信用制度的中外比较及启示

个人信用是一种可以利用的资源,个人信用的价值也正在随着市场经济的发展而日益凸显出来。个人信用制度的建设对我国启动消费、扩大内需、刺激经济的发展具有重大意义。本文首先介绍了国外发达国家个人信用制度,接着分析了我国个人信用制度的发展现状,并针对当前存在的问题,提出了目前发展个人信用制度进一步需要解决的问题。     

次贷危机背景下我国商业银行对个人住房信贷风险的防范

美国次贷危机已演变成为了全球性的金融危机。我国商业银行的个人住房信贷扩张累积了较大风险与个贷危机,次贷危机的冲击将使个人住房贷款者信用风险的集中爆发,也会使房地产市场发展的不确定性风险加大等问题完全暴露。我国商业银行必须采取措施,提前防范其对银行体系内个人住房信贷所产生的不良影响,严格控制个人住房贷款者的信用级别,完善并严厉执行银行体系的内部控制,增强银行自身的流动性,加强金融创新监管,以全面保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

The ethical and policy implications of profiling ‘vulnerable’ customers

In the shadow of the global financial crisis, the issue of the marketing of credit has become an increasing concern in the past 12 months. Outstanding personal debt in the UK currently stands at £1479 billion and is rising by £1 million every 10.6 min. In Australia, there is currently $44.6 billion worth of outstanding credit card debt, and in the US, $2596 billion was owed on credit cards in 2008. At present, the banking sector utilizes sophisticated research methods to profile consumers, including those who might be considered financially vulnerable. However, the policy frameworks in most industrialized countries do not account for this form of target marketing when considering how to protect vulnerable groups. This paper is an initial attempt to examine the different methods by which profiling is conducted and the policy implications of this sophisticated form of segmentation and targeting. We argue that current consumer policies are inadequate in protecting vulnerable consumers from these marketing techniques, and recent recommendations from the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, and the Australian Law Reform Commission to allow banks and lenders to ‘pre‐screen’ potential customers will exacerbate personal debt levels, rather than reducing them.     

Impact of Personal and Situational Factors on Taxpayer Compliance: An Experimental Analysis

This study used a laboratory experiment with monetary incentives to test the impact of three personal factors (moral reasoning, value orientation and risk preference), and three situational factors (the presence/absence of audits, tax inequity, and peer reporting behavior), while controlling for the impact of other demographic characteristics, on tax compliance. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) reveals that all the main effects analyzed are statistically significant and robustly influence tax compliance behavior. These results highlight the importance of obtaining a proper understanding of these factors for developing effective policies for increasing the level of compliance, and indicate that standard enforcement polices based on punishment alone should be supplemented by an information system that would acquaint tax payers with the compliance level of other tax payers; reinforce the concept of fairness of the tax system among tax payers; and develop programs that enhance and appeal to a taxpayer's moral conscience and reinforce social cohesion.