基于SRP模型的云南省生态脆弱性评价及驱动力分析

云南地处山地高原，地形复杂，植被丰富但覆盖不均衡，通过对其生态脆弱性评价，衡量其生态的可持续发展状况。本研究采用SRP（敏感-恢复力-压力）模型，选取14个指标因子构建评价模型，通过AHP结合熵权法确定指标权重，并用地理探测器进行驱动力分析。结果表明：云南省的生态脆弱性受自然因子影响最为显著，总体上呈现出西北高、西南低、滇中纵横交错的特点。     

PSR框架下新疆城市承载力状态时空动态演化研究

城市承载力是新疆区域经济、社会和生态可持续发展的基础。科学评价城市承载力状态并探寻其制约因素是新疆城镇化发展的关键问题。通过基于"压力—状态—响应"的分析框架建立的蕴含自然资源支撑、区域环境压力和城市建设调控的评价指标体系测度结果表明,新疆城市承载力总体保持稳定并趋向改善,但承载状态级别较低,区域环境压力较大,具有典型的空间分异特征;城市建设调控的差异正成为城市承载力空间分异的主因,其政策蕴意在于可通过提升落后地区城市建设水平缩小城市间差距。     

面向城市洪涝的社会脆弱性空间识别与规划策略——以南京市为例

气候变化和城镇化的双重力量作用下，日益频繁的洪涝灾害已成为中国城市面临的重大挑战。通过社会脆弱性评估识别易受淹地区并提出相应的规划策略，是降低风险和增强气候适应性的重要途径。以南京市为例，通过构建面向洪涝的城市社会脆弱性评价框架，识别南京社会脆弱性的空间分布特征。结果表明：社会脆弱性总体上呈现“中心—外围”模式，即中心城区和远郊区社会脆弱性高，近郊区社会脆弱性低，进一步划分了“高暴露型”、“高暴露—高敏感型”、“高暴露—低适应型”和“低适应型”四种政策分区，并提出了具体的应对措施。     

气候变化条件下的城市脆弱性建模与仿真

在脆弱性的研究框架上建立了气候变化条件下的城市脆弱性变量系统,包括三个维度(暴露度、敏感性以及适应能力)与六个类别(环境扰动、社会压力、自然环境、社会经济、水资源、调适/回应),通过变量间因果互动关系组合建立系统动力模型。借助STELLA系统动力学软件,通过仿真研究在三种不同的情境下,各指标变量的变动情况以及各指标对于整个系统的影响情况,从而发挥脆弱性变量的预测性与政策评估功能。通过仿真发现,在城市发展与预防灾害的产生之间,寻求一个平衡点是必须考虑的关键。     

城市的脆弱性及其规避措施

在城市安全问题上引入"脆弱性"这一概念,初步构建城市脆弱性的研究框架:概念界定、影响因素和评价方法。城市规模、密度和形态,经济社会发展和基础设施水平以及应急管理水平,是影响城市脆弱性的结构性因素。突发事件是城市脆弱性产生的主要胁迫因素。城市规划和建设应以安全为基点,将城市脆弱性分析作为新依据,建立城市规模、密度和形态三位一体的关系,做好城市安全基础设施规划和建设,增强城市突发事件的综合应对能力。     

西藏社会经济发展现状及生态脆弱性评价

在分析了西藏社会经济发展和生态环境现状的基础上，构建了生态脆弱性评价指标体系，运用熵值法得到指标体系中每个指标的权重。采用赵跃龙对生态脆弱性计算方法测算了西藏2010—2019年生态脆弱度，并结合西藏社会经济发展现状，提出在经济发展过程中生态环境保护的几点建议。     

矿业城市人地系统的脆弱性及其评价体系

根据对脆弱性内涵及其研究内容的分析,可以得出矿业城市人地系统脆弱性属于人类活动胁迫型脆弱性的结论,具有不稳定性、敏感性、易损失性等特征.通过分析经济、社会、自然三个子系统脆弱性产生的因素,建立相应的脆弱性评价指标体系,在深入分析脆弱性和可持续发展之间关系的基础上,综合评价矿业城市人地系统脆弱性,为矿业城市实现可持续发展提供理论依据.     

基于DPSIR模型的北京市可持续发展评价

随着城市化进程的不断推进,北京市城市经济快速发展的需求与环境的保护、资源的可持续利用已成为城市发展的主要矛盾,空气污染、水资源紧缺、交通、住房压力大等问题非常突出。面对这种情况,必须坚持科学发展观,努力实现人口、经济、环境和能源等因素的协调发展。结合城市可持续发展的内涵和北京市的城市发展现状,采用驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(driving-forces-pressure-state-impact-response,DPSIR)理论框架构建城市可持续发展综合评价指标体系,将熵值法和层次分析法相结合合理确定指标权重。选取了2001—2014年北京市城市发展指标数据,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应等5个方面,对北京市可持续发展水平进行系统评估和分析,识别关键因素和重要环节,并提出建议和措施,为实现和优化北京市经济、社会和环境的可持续发展提供指导和支持。     

城市生态交通系统综合评价方法框架浅析

指出生态交通是生态城市发展的理想模式,也是城市交通发展的趋势.在全面分析交通系统结构和作用机制的基础上,提出了基于DPSIR模型的城市生态交通系统综合评价体系的框架.在此框架中,初步选取了具体指标,建立了综合评价的指标集,并提出了生态化综合指数的计算方法,以此测度城市交通生态化水平.     

长江流域城市生态环境可持续发展战略研究

本文综合分析评价了长江城市的生态环境态势与问题,论证了面对２１世纪长江流域城市可持续发展战略,探讨了建构山水园林生态城市的基本框架,并根据国情和长江流域的城市特点全面论述了建设山水园林生态城市的途径与对策。     

A behavioral study of supply manager decision-making: Factors influencing make versus buy evaluation

This paper investigates behavioral factors influencing a supply manager's decision to insource or outsource the manufacture of a product component. To do so we posit a theoretical framework that integrates the heretofore distinct operational make–buy literature and the behavioral decision-making literature. Within the framework three factors influencing the make–buy decision are brought into account: the decision-maker's perception of supply risk or “strategic vulnerability”, the degree of core competency represented by the product component under consideration and the formality of the information about supply alternatives. The results of a controlled experimental survey show that: strategic vulnerability and core competency do influence the make–buy decision, strategic vulnerability has greater influence than core competency and information formality moderates the make–buy decision when the strategic vulnerability and core competency conditions are mixed. The practical implications of these results include the notion that management can ensure a more rational make–buy decision if they understand the biases that influence the decision and point these biases out to the decision maker.     

Assessing disaster risk by integrating natural and socio-economic dimensions: A decision-support tool

The paper provides a conceptual framework for a multi-dimensional assessment of risk associated to natural disasters. The different components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience) are seen in a combined natural and socio-economic perspective and are integrated into a Disaster Risk Assessment Tool (DRAT). The tool can be used to support disaster management strategies, as well as risk mitigation and adaptation strategies at very disaggregated geographical or administrative scales. In this paper, we illustrate the features of the DRAT and we apply the tool to 7556 Italian municipalities to map their multidimensional risk. DRAT can be particularly useful to identify hotspots that are characterized by high hazard, exposure and vulnerability and by low resilience. In order to identify hotspots, we perform a cluster analysis of the Italian municipalities in terms of their risk ranking based on DRAT. We also suggest how the tool may be exploited within the processes of disaster risk policy.     

Tempering effects of (dependent) background risks: A mean-variance analysis of portfolio selection

In a mean variance framework, we analyse risk taking in the presence of a (possibly) dependent background risk, exemplified in a linear portfolio selection problem. We first characterise the comparative statics of changes in the distribution and dependence structure of the background risk. For unfair, undesirable and loss-aggravating increases in background risks (both dependent and independent), we then present necessary and sufficient restrictions on preferences such that greater background uncertainty leads to reduced risk taking. With mean-variance preferences, these restrictions boil down to simple conditions on the marginal rate of substitution between risk and return. They can be easily related to familiar notions such as risk vulnerability, properness or standardness.     

Project System Vulnerability to Political Risks in International Construction Projects: The Case of Chinese Contractors

This study aims to explore the variables affecting the project system vulnerability to political risks in international construction projects. A questionnaire survey was conducted and 138 responses were received from both academia and industry. The exploratory factor analysis was then adopted to uncover the relationships among these variables. The results showed that three exposure factors (i.e., attribute‐based exposure, strategy‐based exposure, and transaction‐based exposure) and three capacity factors (i.e., core competitive capacity, relative bargain capacity, and integrate adaptive capacity) were believed to be the significant underlying factors for the project system vulnerability to political risks. Also, case studies were conducted and the results indicated that the emergent framework was suitable and tractable for application in the future. This study provides a method for measuring the project system vulnerability to political risks; thus, international construction enterprises can decrease their risk exposure and enhance their capacity for dealing with political risks in international construction projects.     

A conceptual framework for tackling knowable unknown unknowns in project management

Understanding and dealing with the unknown is a major challenge in project management. An extensive body of knowledge—theory and technique—exists on the “known unknowns,” i.e., uncertainties which can be described probabilistically and addressed through the conventional techniques of risk management. Although some recent studies have addressed projects where the existence of unknown unknowns (unk unks) is readily apparent or may be assumed given the type of project—e.g., new product development or new process implementation—very little work has been reported with respect to projects in general on how a project manager might assess its vulnerability to unk unks. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework to deal with (i.e., recognize and reduce) knowable unk unks in project management. The framework is supported by insights from a variety of theories, case analyses, and experiences. In this framework, we first present a model of the key factors—relating to both project design and behavioral issues—that increase the likelihood of unk unks and a set of propositions linking these factors to unk unks. We then present a set of design and behavioral approaches that project managers could adopt to reduce knowable unk unks. Our framework fills a gap in the project management literature and makes a significant practical contribution: it helps project managers diagnose a project to recognize and reduce the likelihood of unk unks and thus deal more effectively with the otherwise unrecognized risks and opportunities.     

计算机网络安全漏洞检测与攻击图构建的研究

随着网络技术的飞速发展,计算机网络安全问题也逐渐突显出来,成为了困扰人们生活的一种主要网络问题。要解决当今较为严重的计算机网络安全方面的问题,进行安全漏洞的检测非常重要。本文从计算机网络安全漏洞检测与攻击图构建两方面进行分析,探讨增强计算机安全性能的相关措施。     

Feeling Vulnerable? Disclosure of Vulnerability in the Charismatic Leadership Relationship

The current conceptual paper explores the role of vulnerability in the charismatic leadership relationship. “Sharing vulnerability” is defined as communicating an experience to followers, in which the leader was hurt emotionally, physically, or spiritually. We argue that sharing vulnerability may be an important mechanism through which leaders develop relationships with their followers and increase attributions of charisma. We also note several likely preconditions for sharing vulnerability, including humility, self‐awareness, and the courage to acknowledge imperfections. Further, we highlight that when leaders disclose emotions, it creates opportunities for followers to connect with leaders at an emotional level. Followers, in turn, may perceive increased psychological safety, be more willing to trust the leader, and be more motivated to engage in building a more egalitarian leader–follower relationship. Therefore, we propose sharing vulnerability as a potential avenue for building more compassionate and caring leader–follower relationships.     

Dynamic institutional analysis: measuring corporatist intermediation

In this paper a framework for empirical analysis is introduced that allows for a dynamic analysis of the interactions between different types of actors and institutions. We elaborate our argument by focusing on a complex phenomenon—corporatism—to show how this concept can be developed into a measure that travels across nations and time. The heuristic framework we developed adequately captures the interactive behaviour of the relevant actors within a corporatist institutional context. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework for the analysis of policy formation by applying it to Dutch incomes policy. We contend that this heuristic framework contributes to alleviating the often discussed methodological trade-off between single case studies and cross-national comparisons. We also argue that it can bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative approaches. Lastly, we propose that it can be used for empirical analysis of policy-making processes in other policy areas.     

试论面向电子商务的企业信息化网络平台建设

在对电子商务与企业信息化网络平台建设的关系进行阐述的基础上,重点就面向电子商务的企业信息化网络平台建设的框架设计、构建原则和建设要求等内容进行探讨,旨在改进企业的营销水平和管理质量,提高企业的经济效益。