Option moneyness and price disagreements

This article investigates price disagreements between actual and options-implied futures prices by considering option moneyness. Out-of-the-money (OTM) options trading induces price disagreements more frequently than at-the-money (ATM) options trading. Examining price adjustments to eliminate disagreements, we find that the futures (options) market tends to move less (more) for OTM option disagreements than ATM option disagreements, suggesting that the price dynamics of OTM options are less informative and noisier than that of ATM options.     

Pricing bond options under a Markovian regime-switching Hull–White model

In this paper, we investigate the valuation of bond options under a Markovian regime-switching Hull–White model, where both the mean-reverting level and the volatility of the interest rate are modulated by a continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. Using techniques of measure changes and the inverse Fourier transform, we obtain an integral representation for the pricing formula of a standard European option on a zero-coupon bond. Numerical results for the prices and implied volatilities of bond options arising in our model are given in a two-regime case.     

A nonparametric kernel regression approach for pricing options on stock market index

Previous options studies typically assume that the dynamics of the underlying asset price follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) when pricing options on stocks, stock indices, currencies or futures. However, there is mounting empirical evidence that the volatility of asset price or return is far from constant. This article, in contrast to studies that use parametric approach for option pricing, employs nonparametric kernel regression to deal with changing volatility and, accordingly, prices options on stock index. Specifically, we first estimate nonparametrically the volatility of asset return in the GBM based on the Nadaraya–Watson (N–W) kernel estimator. Then, based on the N–W estimates for the volatility, we use Monte Carlo simulation to compute option prices under different settings. Finally, we compare the index option prices under our nonparametric model with those under the Black–Scholes model and the Stein–Stein model.     

Market depth,domestic investors and price monotonicity violations

We re-examine the monotonicity violations of option price dynamics considering the roles of market depth and domestic investors. Violations caused by option price movements in conflict with underlying price movements tend to occur less frequently as the market depth increases, especially in the case of out-of-the-money options. In contrast, violations caused by option prices that remain sticky despite underlying price changes occur more frequently as the market depth increases. Both of these relationships are amplified by domestic investors.     

COMPTABILITE NATIONALE A PRIX CONSTANTS ET A PRODUCTIVITE CONSTANTE

The problem of national accounting “at constant prices” is in fact a problem of comparability of time series, as changes in the price structure preclude any direct comparison of economic flows. If such accounts are established they will make it possible directly to compare the same flow at two different times in the economy as a whole, and this without leaving the influence of other flows out of account. This makes it possible both to synthesize and to undertake analytical comparisons. The accounts could then be used for the study of time series, for projections or for structural studies (e.g. the mechanisms underlying the changing pattern of income distrubution). The first part of this report sets out to study the main problems of compiling accounts at constant prices and to examine what conventions should be adopted. The second part of the report considers how productivity gains can be explicitly shown in the national accounts. The proposed study plan restores the symmetry between price and productivity. As in the accounts at constant prices, gap variables are introduced to measure productivity gains. These variables can be interpreted in terms of surplus; the concept of surplus used here, however, is not the one adopted for the accounts in constant prices, but its dual. Setting up an accounting system “at constant productivity” therefore makes it possible to complete the information provided by an accounting system “at constant prices.” These two systems can of course be integrated: this leads to the introduction of the concept of an accounting system “at constant prices and constant productivity.” Such an accounting system makes it possible to show, in the same accounting framework, the respective contributions of price changes and improved productivity to the gains realised by the different economic agents. It therefore gives a complete picture of “transfers” between the agents. At the same time, the data on price and productivity can be integrated with each other.     

On Price Caps Under Uncertainty

This paper shows how standard arguments supporting the imposition of price caps break down in the presence of demand uncertainty. In particular, though in the deterministic case the introduction or lowering of a price cap (above marginal cost) results in increased production, increased total welfare, decreased prices, and increased consumer welfare, we show that all of the above comparative statics predictions fail for generic uncertain demand functions. For example, for price caps sufficiently close to marginal cost, a decrease in the price cap always leads to a decrease in production and total welfare under certain mild conditions. Under stronger regularity assumptions, all of the monotone comparative statics predictions from the deterministic case also do not hold for a generic uncertain demand if we restrict attention to price caps in an arbitrary fixed interval (as long as the price caps are binding for some values in that interval).     

含权债券定价的统一框架及其数值分析

本文从理论上推导了一般债券定价的偏微分方程，详细分析了包含欧式和美式看涨和看跌期权的4类债券，并给出了4类含权债券定价的边界条件。利用隐性差分法数值求解了偏微分方程，针对4类期权对不同利率参数的敏感性进行了分析。     

DIRECTED SEARCH,COORDINATION FAILURE,AND SELLER PROFITS: AN EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF POSTED PRICING WITH SINGLE AND MULTIPLE PRICES

We experimentally examine posted pricing and directed search. In one treatment, capacity‐constrained sellers post fixed prices, which buyers observe before choosing whom to visit. In the other, firms post both “single‐buyer” (applied when one buyer visits) and “multibuyer” (when multiple buyers visit) prices. We find, based on a 2 × 2 (two buyers and two sellers) market and a follow‐up experiment with 3 and 2 × 3 markets, that multibuyer prices can be lower than single‐buyer prices or prices in the one‐price treatment. Also, allowing the multibuyer price does not affect seller profits and increases market frictions.     

Pricing currency options in a fractional Brownian motion with jumps

A new framework for pricing the European currency option is developed in the case where the spot exchange rate fellows a fractional Brownian motion with jumps. An analytic formula for pricing European foreign currency options is proposed using the equivalent martingale measure and the estimation method of parameters in the pricing model is given, enabling option prices to be computed efficiently and accurately. For the purpose of understanding the pricing model, some properties of this pricing model are discussed in the latter part of this paper. Finally, the numerical simulations illustrate that our model is flexible and easy to implement.     

Fake Sales: A Dynamic Pricing Perspective

Some sellers display high “regular” prices, but mark down these prices the vast majority of the time, advertising the good as “on sale” or “discounted”. This note suggests a framework for understanding the practice, emphasising the role of buyer uncertainty about their future valuations for the good. We argue that so‐called “regular” prices set buyers’ expectations regarding future prices, expectations that need not be tethered to the prices actually set. By manipulating upwards buyers’ expectations of future prices, the seller can increase demand for the good at the current “sale” price, increasing profits.     

Starve all the lawyers: four theories of the just price

The only “sense in which we can meaningfully talk about just wages or just prices”, said Friedrich Hayek, is for wages and prices “determined in a free market without deception, fraud or violence”. Conversely, after reviewing three theories of the just price, this paper proposes a classical liberal theory of the just price, called the “catallactic” theory, according to which our understanding of just prices must account for the background institutions of markets. Some transactions could not happen in a market without a certain theory of just prices and such transactions will feed into our understanding of markets, hence making just prices a de facto reality.     

Profit Differences and Corporate Power: Some Empirical Surprises

Inflation targeting is currently the policy of choice for central banks. This policy invariably targets consumer price inflation, which is only one of many available price level indices (such as prices of new investments and house prices). As there is no stable relationship between these price levels, and as differences in developments between the different price levels might induce destabilizing behavior, there is no reason why “low and stable” consumer price inflation should guarantee monetary and financial stability. Following John Maynard Keynes, a “low and stable” increase of average nominal wages might do a better job. As price levels are designed to estimate the purchasing power of spending power and as income, and spending power are used to not just consume or invest but also to pay down many kinds of (gross) debt, it is advisable to use a joint definition of monetary and financial stability, which combines stable purchasing power of monetary income with a stable ability of households and companies to pay off debts.     

Toward Reasonable Capitalism: The Role of John R. Commons’s Price and Business Cycle Theories

Abstract

John R. Commons thought that prices should be stable and that the law of supply and demand should be controlled by the power of the state through patent law and by protecting bargaining equality. Commons also thought that prices should be stabilized by macro monetary policy. These means would allow the realization of a “reasonable price.” Commons called the objective and measurable value in money, which is determined by a court ruling, “reasonable value.” Analysis of Commons’s price and business cycle theories point toward the realization of both “reasonable price” and “reasonable value” and toward “reasonable capitalism” that can replace banker capitalism.     

Quality,quantity, spending and prices

One measure of the change in the “quality” of consumption is the degree to which the consumption basket as a whole moves towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. We introduce two related measures based on the luxury/necessity distinction. One is an index of the extent to which the prices of luxuries change as compared to necessities, while the second indexes the change in spending. These two measures are interpreted as the price of and spending on quality. The “volume” of quality is then spending deflated by its price. Using the recent International Comparison Program data for 100+ countries, we find that, on average, quality increases with income, but at a slower rate; luxuries are relatively more expensive in richer countries, necessities cheaper; and approximately 75 percent of additional spending on quality flows into a volume component, with the remaining 25 percent accounted for by prices.     

The impact of price floors on farmland investments: a real options based experimental analysis

Price floors are a common instrument for market intervention to stimulate investments. In some cases, it can be observed that a price floor does not have the stimulating effect. We experimentally analyse the investment behaviour of students who take the role of farmers. The experiment considers an investment problem under uncertainty in a ‘with price floor’ and a ‘no price floor’ treatment, stylizing a decision to take an ongoing farmland investment option. We compare the actual investment behaviour with normative benchmarks of the net present value and the real options approach. Furthermore, we look at order and learning effects. The results show that the price floor has no significant impact on the willingness to invest, whereas the effects of order were statistically significant. The investment reluctance arising from an abolishment is stronger than the investment stimulation arising from the introduction of a price floor. Furthermore, neither the net present value nor the real options approach is appropriate to predict the investment behaviour in general. Nevertheless, the predictions of the real options approach enable an approximation of the participants’ investment behaviour if the individuals have an adequate chance to learn from personal experience.     

Accounting for the "Subnational Penn Effect"—A General Theory of Regional and National Price Levels

As an extension of the neoclassical urban systems theory (Henderson, 1974), we develop a general theory of regional (inter-city) price dispersion which also explains the “subnational Penn effect,” i.e., cross-city correlations among population size, prices, real income and human capital stock. The model is also a theory of international price dispersion that is observationally equivalent to and more appealing than the Balassa-Samuelson theory, implying that the (international) Penn effect may simply be an aggregate result of the “subnational Penn effect.” Furthermore, it shows that, contrary to the popular view, economic integration can increase as well as decrease spatial price variation.     

On the usefulness of intraday price ranges to gauge liquidity in cap-based portfolios

We find that easy-to-observe price ranges are useful for estimating intraday liquidity. Following the literature on range-based volatility estimators, we go beyond the use of the closing price only and rely on the full range of prices. Based on high, low, opening, and closing (HLOC) prices, we show that a greater intensity in the price discovery process (as measured by the open–close range) and a higher level of price uncertainty (as captured by the High–Low range) lower ex-ante liquidity for small, mid, and large caps. Realized volatility (RV) fails to capture these effects. Although order books have become increasingly difficult to treat, there is some good news: it has never been easier to look at price ranges.     

Input Intensity: A Missing Link between Production,Trade Patterns,and Environmental Standards

Trade and production implications of a change in environmental policy using the 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin framework are identified. For otherwise identical economies a difference of environmental policy standards generates two effects: the “effective‐endowment effect” where the abatement activity uses up some resources of the economy leaving less for the production of the final goods and the “factor‐price effect” where changes in the abatement requirement affects factor prices that in turn affect production. The direction and relative strengths of these two effects determine whether production and trade patterns are consistent with or opposite to the pollution haven expectation.     

Money,Prices and the Silver Industry during the Price Revolution

The discovery of American silver has been commonly viewed in the literature as the moving force behind the sustained rise of prices experienced by Western Europe from the early 16th to the mid-17th century. However, the mechanical connection between the money supply and the general price level implied by the Quantity Theory oversimplifies the analysis of a period characterized by different trends, some of which cannot be easily explained by the monetarist story: (i) Central Europe silver mining boomed between 1451 and 1540 following a phase of scarcity of money that was especially severe between the end of the 14th century and the beginning of the 15th century; (ii) European prices started to rise before American silver was significantly imported to the Continent; (iii) the rapid expansion of American mining coincided with the decline of the European silver industry (1540–1618); and finally (iv) Mexican and Peruvian bullion production evidenced a downward course during the period 1628–1697, but no alteration in the rising trend of European prices occurred in response. It is argued instead that the classical theory of value and distribution, emphasizing costs of production as determinants of the ‘natural’ value of commodities including precious metals, can accommodate the facts in a more consistent manner than the monetarist view.     

An improved framework for approximating option prices with application to option portfolio hedging

As the price of the underlying asset changes over time, delta of the option changes and a gamma hedge is required along with delta hedge to reduce risk. This paper develops an improved framework to compute delta and gamma values with the average of a range of underlying prices rather than at the conventional fixed ‘one point’. We find that models with time-varying volatility price options satisfactorily, and perform remarkably well in combination with the delta and delta-gamma approximations. Significant improvements are achieved for the GARCH model followed by stochastic volatility models. The new approach can ensure significant improvement in modelling option prices leading to better risk-management decision-making.