Supply chains and economic development: Insights from the Indian dairy sector

With almost three quarters of the labor force depending on agriculture in India, kick-starting agricultural growth is considered crucial for pro-poor development. More specifically, dairy production – which is labor-intensive but does not heavily rely on access to land – is generally expected to offer better prospects for income growth to the poorest among rural households. However, most policies aimed at increasing dairy production are based on ad hoc observations, with hardly any micro-level evidence. Using a unique primary dataset on 1000 rural households in Andhra Pradesh, this paper investigates the dairy production system, addressing three main research questions: First, we look at the typical profile of a dairy farmer and we find that both family traditions in dairy and owning (even a small piece of) land play a role in determining participation in dairy – while land size does not matter. Second, we show that dairy production is strongly and positively associated with improvement in rural livelihoods, in terms of income per capita, but that this positive relation only holds for larger dairy farms. In a third step, we look at the determinants of farm growth and we find that households having higher shares of graded dairy animals have grown more after 2005.     

Assessing the impact of improved agricultural technologies on household income in rural Mozambique

In many areas of Africa, rural livelihoods depend heavily on subsistence farming. Using improved agricultural technologies can increase productivity in smallholder agriculture and thus raise household income and reduce poverty. Data from a nationally representative rural household survey from 2005 is used to assess the impact of four technologies – improved maize seeds, improved granaries, tractor mechanization, and animal traction – on household income in Mozambique. To ensure the robustness of the results, three econometric approaches were used: the doubly-robust estimator, sub-classification and regression, and matching and regression. The results show that, overall, using an improved technology did not have a statistically significant impact on household income. This may be associated with a widespread drought that occurred in 2005. Despite drought, distinguishing between households based on propensity score quintiles revealed that using improved technologies, especially improved maize seeds and tractors, significantly increased the income of those households who had better market access. Thus, to allow households to benefit from the use of improved technologies, policy makers need to reduce structural impediments to market participation by ensuring adequate road infrastructure and enabling access to markets.     

Changing asset endowments and smallholder participation in higher value markets: Evidence from certified coffee producers in Nicaragua

This paper examines the capacities of smallholders in Nicaragua to exploit new linkages to certified coffee markets following the coffee crisis. Data on livelihood assets were collected from 292 households, which were clustered to test how differences in outcomes (asset building) reflect variations in initial asset endowments. The results suggest that most households built particular elements of their asset base and increased their resilience to future shocks. However, households struggled to make effective use of the gains for intensifying their livelihoods. Of the least-endowed households, few made investments in the scale or productivity of coffee, and most continued to depend heavily on subsistence production and seasonal off-farm income for survival. In conclusion, improved market access alone, even under relatively favorable market conditions and with considerable external support, will have uncertain impacts on rural poverty if the underlying constraints on household assets and investments are not addressed concurrently.     

The impact of interfirm relationships on investment: Evidence from the Polish dairy sector

Financial constraints and credit market imperfections are a major constraint on investment, growth and poverty reduction in transition and developing countries. This paper analyses the impact on investments of financial assistance programs as part of interfirm relationships. Our empirical evidence is based on a two-stage survey methodology. Qualitative evidence on dairy companies’ assistance programs was gathered in the first stage through in-depth interviews at the level of the dairy companies. Quantitative data on 290 milk producing rural households in Poland was collected through a random survey in the second stage. The empirical analysis shows that dairy companies have played an important role in financial assistance, in particular for dairy-specific investments. In addition, they had an important indirect impact on farm activities and investments through feed supply and loan guarantee programs.     

Resource allocation decisions in low-income rural households

This paper is based on the theory that a society's nutritional well-being is both a cause and a consequence of the developmental process within that society. An approach to the choices made by poor rural households regarding food acquisition and nurturing behavior is emerging from recent research based on the new economic theory of household production. The central thesis of this approach is that household decisions related to the fulfillment of basic needs are strongly determined by decisions on the allocation of time to household production activities. Summarized are the results of the estimation of a model of household production and consumption behavior with data from a cross-sectional survey of 30 rural communities in Veraguas Province, Panama. The struture of the model consists of allocation of resources to nurturing activities and to production activities. The resources to be allocated are time and market goods, and in theory, these are allocated according to relative prices. The empirical results of this study are generally consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical economic model of household resource allocation. The major conclusions that time allocations and market price conditions matter in the determination of well-being in low-income rural households and, importantly, that nurturing decisions significantly affect the product and factor market behavior of these households form the basis for a discussion on implucations for agricultural and rural development. Programs and policies that seek nutritional improvement should be determined with explicit recognition of the value of time and the importance of timing in the decisions of the poor.     

Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines

We simulate the impact of food inflation between June 2006 and June 2008 on poverty across different areas and between agricultural and non-agricultural households. We explicitly treat the spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and the differences in consumption and production patterns across households by merging household expenditure survey and price datasets at the provincial level or lower. Although some of the poor agricultural households may have escaped poverty, the poorest of the poor, whether they are in an agricultural household or not, are severely and adversely affected by the food inflation.     

Stimulating smallholder dairy market and livestock feed improvements through local innovation platforms in the Himalayan foothills of India

Innovation platforms (IP) are increasingly used in agricultural development to address complex issues which require diverse actors to work jointly to identify constraints and implement solutions. Documenting outcomes associated with the use of IPs and identifying factors linked to positive results are important if performance is to be optimized. This study investigates changes in smallholder dairy production and marketing associated with the establishment of a series of innovation platforms in Uttarakhand, Northern Himalayan region, India. We studied the links between innovation platform processes and outcomes using systematic documentation of meetings and interventions along with a post-intervention assessment which compared households from villages with and without the innovation platform intervention. We found that households participating in IPs showed increased dairy milk sales, increased income and improved breeding and feeding practices. Factors associated with these outcomes were the process of issue identification, the diversity of actors participating in meetings and the quality of follow-up on the agreed action plans.     

Alternatives to calorie-based indicators of food security: An application of machine learning methods

Identifying food insecure households in an accurate and cost-effective way is important for targeted food policy interventions. Since predictive accuracy depends partly on which indicators are used to identify food insecure households, it is important to assess the performance of indicators that are relatively easy and inexpensive to collect yet can proxy for the “gold standard” food security indicator, calorie intake. We study the effectiveness of different variable combinations and methods in predicting calorie-based food security among poor households and communities in rural Bangladesh. We use basic household information as a benchmark set for predicting calorie-based food security. We then assess the gain in predictive power obtained by adding subjective food security indicators (e.g., self-reported days without sufficient food), the dietary diversity score (DDS), and the combination of both sets to our model of calorie-based food security. We apply machine learning as well as traditional econometric methods in estimation. We find that the overall predictive accuracy rises from 63% to 69% when we add the subjective and DDS sets to the benchmark set. Our study demonstrates that while alternative indicators and methods are not always accurate in predicting calorie intake, DDS related indicators do improve accuracy compared to a simple benchmark set.     

Impact of off-farm income on food security and nutrition in Nigeria

While the poverty implications of off-farm income have been analyzed in different developing countries, much less is known about the impact of off-farm income on household food security and nutrition. Here, this research gap is addressed by using farm survey data from Nigeria. Econometric analyses are employed to examine the mechanisms through which off-farm income affects household calorie and micronutrient supply, dietary quality, and child anthropometry. We find that off-farm income has a positive net effect on food security and nutrition. The prevalence of child stunting, underweight, and wasting is lower in households with off-farm income than in households without. Using a structural model, we also show that off-farm income contributes to higher food production and farm income by easing capital constraints, thus improving household welfare in multiple ways.     

Urban agriculture,poverty, and food security: Empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries

Urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems, which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of population in developing regions. Our understanding of the importance, nature and food security implications of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality, reliable data. While studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities, much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anecdotal. Using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable, nationally representative household survey data for 15 developing or transition countries, this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure. Some clear hints do come from our analysis. On the one hand, the potential for urban agriculture to play a substantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised, as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited. On the other hand, though, its role should also not be too easily dismissed, particularly in much of Africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor, and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods. We also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators.     

Impact of traditional versus modern dairy value chains on food security: Evidence from India’s dairy sector

The Indian government has made significant efforts to promote dairy cooperatives to link the milk producers with consumers. Despite this, milk marketing is still dominated by traditional outlets. This paper examines the impact of modern dairy value chains on food security indicators such as net returns from dairying and consumption expenditures. Using a large, national, farm-level dataset from India and a multinomial endogenous switching regression model, results reveal that Indian dairy farmers’ integration with the modern dairy value chain has a positive and significant impact on their food security (measured by net returns and household consumption expenditures). Participation in modern milk-marketing outlets significantly increases net returns per year, regardless of whether farmers choose one outlet or a combination.     

Private production and income distribution in a Chinese commune

This article is concerned with the extent of inequality between production teams and between households in one commune in the People's Republic of China, and particularly with the effect of income from private production on the distribution of total household income. The authors briefly describe the history and role of private production within the commune system, and report the findings of household a survey conducted to discover the flows of food commodities from both private and collective sources. The authors conclude that private production is not a source of inequality in this commune.     

Fish as the “bank in the water” – Evidence from chronic-poor communities in Congo

Small-scale fisheries in developing countries are often perceived as being a low-productivity and backward informal sector. As a result they are rarely considered in poverty reduction programmes and rural development planning. In this paper, we investigate the dual role of fish as a food and cash crop through data collected in river fisheries in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Fishing in this very remote rural region of DRC is operated both by men and women, as part of a household multiple activity livelihood strategy. The data shows that poor households rely heavily on fishing for their supply of protein-rich food, in particular through women’s subsistence catches. Fishing also appears to be the main source of cash-income for the majority of households, including local farmers. Based on these findings and a review of the literature, the paper argues that small-scale fisheries can play a fundamental role in local economies, especially in remote rural areas where they strengthen significantly the livelihoods of people through their role in both food security and cash-income generation.     

Competitiveness and trade potential of India’s dairy industry

India has become the world’s largest milk producer but its dairy industry lacks market access. This paper determines how world dairy policy reforms would affect dairy production and trade in India and the competitiveness of its dairy industry. We measure nominal protection coefficient for India’s dairy products to determine level and change in competitiveness between 1975 and 2001. We estimate parameters of domestic demand for and supply of raw milk and whole milk powder to determine how a world price increase would affect domestic milk production and whole milk powder exports. Results show that India’s dairy products lack export competitiveness. But with less distorted world dairy markets, India could be competitive and would emerge as a net exporter of whole milk powder, benefiting dairy industries and milk producers in India.     

The impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption

Survey characteristics affect the quality of the measurement of food consumption within households; thus, it is important to identify best practices for designing surveys that collect food data. This paper analyses the impact of survey characteristics on the measurement of food consumption from a sample of 81 national surveys. Results highlight regularities that can inform best practices in designing surveys and promoting the use of the data for multiple purposes. Surveys focused on food acquisition collect higher food quantities compared to those that target food consumption. Surveys based on recall interviews collect higher food quantities compared to those based on diaries, but the difference decreases with long reference periods. The use of standard units of measurement as well as the consideration of partakers in meals and of seasonality generates significant differences in the survey results. The impact of the different survey characteristics carries substantive implications when food consumption data are employed for assessing food security conditions. The results are part of a wider work program aimed at improving the quality of household survey data. More evidence is needed, ideally through coordinated sets of analyses and experiments in different contexts. Additionally, survey characteristics must be complemented by effective field work in order to generate high quality data. Towards this end, statistical capacity development is crucial to promote better data and more evidence-based decision making.     

Is DNA fingerprinting the gold standard for estimation of adoption and impacts of improved lentil varieties?

In the early 1980s, disease susceptibility in short-season lentil landraces began to limit productivity in areas where relay cropping took place in Bangladesh. Since then, several improved high-yielding lentil varieties, which are resistant to rust and blight and suitable in the relay cropping system, have been released jointly by national and international research centers. This study used three methods, namely a panel of experts, a survey of 1000 households where the respondents named the variety they used, and DNA fingerprinting of seed samples collected from all lentil plots cultivated by survey households to estimate adoption. Double hurdle and instrumental variables regression methods were applied to the household survey and DNA fingerprinting data to identify determinants of adoption and measure their impacts. Of particular interest was whether estimates of adoption, determinants of adoption and impacts varied by method of variety identification. Results showed that the expert panel overestimated the adoption of more recent varieties while about 89% of the farmer-reported varieties were accurate, as verified by DNA fingerprinting. DNA fingerprinting appears to have little advantage for estimating the level of adoption in this case, where few varieties of lentils are found, local variety names do not exist, and most seed is obtained through a formal system. However, even under these conditions, determinants of adoption vary by identification method, and use of farmer-reported information on the variety can lead to erroneous conclusions about determinants of adoption. Because recent breeding efforts have focused on taste and cooking considerations, yield impacts were not significantly different from zero.     

Household Behavior with Imperfect Labor Markets

A household model with differential asset endowments and idiosyncratic transactions costs in accessing labor markets is developed to (1) explain membership of farm households to alternative labor regimes (sellers, employers, or self-sufficient in labor), (2) test for recursivity between production and consumption decisions selectively by labor regime, and (3) identify the determinants of differential labor productivity across labor regimes. The model is applied to a 1994 household survey of the Mexican land reform sector.     

Pull and push: individual farming in Hungary

This paper is motivated by the fact that (part-time) individual farming is commonly observed among rural households in a number of transition economies but it is not clear prima facie if such resource allocation is optimal. A conceptual model of household labor allocation between individual farming and off-farm wage employment is developed. The model explicitly accounts for the role of household endowments in labor allocation as the analysis is conditioned on the status of factor markets. The hypotheses are empirically tested using 1998 data from a country-representative survey of rural households in Hungary, an advanced transition country, which only recently became EU member state. Results provide evidence that capital market imperfections still remain. Implications for the policies related to agricultural sector restructuring, employment and rural development are discussed.     

A comparison of recall and diary food expenditure data

Recall food expenditure data, which is the basis of a great deal of empirical work, is believed to suffer from considerable measurement error. Diary records are believed to be more accurate. We study an unusual data set that collects recall and diary data from the same households and so allows a direct comparison of the two methods of data collection. The diary data imply measurement errors in recall food expenditure data that are substantial, and which do not have the properties of classical measurement error. However, we also present evidence that the diary measures are themselves imperfect.