Comparing FTTH access networks based on P2P and PMP fibre topologies

There is an ongoing discussion in the market which Next Generation Access (NGA) architecture best suits future needs and which investment and cost differences exist. The discussion can be subsumed as P2P vs. GPON, which is somewhat misleading as this article reveals. The discussion is driven by the fact that the high capital cost and the long asset life time of fibre mean that the technology choices made today will dominate the opportunities for telecommunication business of all market players, incumbents, competitors, content providers and business and residential users for many years in the future.The paper analyzes the cost and other differences between Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) access network architectures and their related different wholesale approaches by using the well-known and understood steady state approach applied in other NGA analyses in the past. In addition to the steady state analysis a dynamic cost evaluation is included taking into account the different investment behaviour of the FTTH architectures over time. The results describe investment and cost differences between architectures, incumbents and wholesale based competitive operators. The analysis has been performed for different geotypes (clusters) of decreasing population density in a representative European settlement structure.     

趸售业务分摊省级共用输配电网络费模型研究

输配电成本合理分摊是制定输配电价的基础。针对我国现阶段输配电业务中趸售电量比重较大的特点,研究趸售业务对省级共用输配电网络费的合理分摊问题;结合趸售电量输配特点,基于现有的省级共用输配电网络费分摊模型,建立了趸售业务对省级共用输配电网络费分摊模型;结合算例数据,验证了模型的可行性。     

The impact of different fibre access network technologies on cost,competition and welfare

Using a novel approach to the evaluation of new network technologies that combines an engineering cost model with a differentiated multi-player oligopoly model with wholesale access regulation this article evaluates the choice among different Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) architectures. The cost modelling relies upon an engineering bottom-up approach that feeds into a competition model. For addressing competition the pyramid model was chosen, which is an extension of the Hotelling model to multiple firms/services. The paper solves for price setting Nash equilibria between an incumbent, wholesale-access-based entrants and cable as an additional fully integrated network competitor. Welfare tradeoffs are highlighted with respect to cost differences and QoS differences between the various FTTH architectures and between the modes of regulation. According to the analysis architectures that can be unbundled (and that allow for greater speeds) outperform, from a social welfare perspective, architectures that (realistically) allow only for bitstream access.     

创意产业链与创意产业集群

创意产业链强调以创意为龙头,以内容为核心,驱动产品的制造,拉动批发和营销。带动后续产品开发,形成上下联动、左右衔接、一次投入、多次产出的链条．其关键战略环节包括内容、渠道、媒体、需求;创意产业集群指创意产业在地域上的集中,它使创意产品的创造、生产、分销和利用得到最优化,并能够显著提升创意产业的竞争力。     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

Stromspeicher für die „Energiewende“ – eine akteursbasierte Analyse der zusätzlichen Speicherkosten

Political targets for implementing the German “energy turnaround” aiming at the ambitious extension of renewable energies to generate electricity. However, a majority of the renewable supply is provided by intermittent sources, e.g. wind and solar power. For balancing the increasing supply fluctuations additional storage options are claimed beside of an enforced grid infrastructure and a more flexible demand side. Despite of the political guidelines the economics of additional flexibility measures has to be considered. For this paper we analyse the costs of large scale stationary battery storages to be operated in wholesale markets and transmission grid level. By deriving a key figure based on a life-cycle cost approach, we are able to evaluate the additional costs of electricity of selected battery technologies (lead-acid, lithium ion, sodium sulphur, redox-flow). Moreover, current and valid parameters of the cost analysis are received by scientific and industrial stakeholders of battery systems via online survey and face-to-face interviews. According to the stakeholder estimation a nationwide operation of stationary battery storages will be established at wholesale and transmission grid level until the year 2030. The life-cycle cost analysis, which also includes estimated future cost reductions, shows that lead-acid batteries remain the cost-efficient technology, assuming about 100 storage cycles p.a. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of increasing annual storage cycles as well as the achievable cost reduction by economies-of-scales of the power unit of the storage system.     

Competition in wholesale markets: Do MNOs compete to host MVNOs?

This paper extends previous research examining wholesale market shares of mobile network operators (MNOs). This study demonstrates that wholesale market concentration has decreased over time because of the increase of competition of MNOs for hosting mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). However, differences in wholesale market shares between MNOs have not disappeared. We propose that those operators that are late entrants in a market and belong to an international group with a proactive attitude towards hosting virtual operators positively influences wholesale market shares of MNOs. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data from 2000 to 2010 corresponding to MNOs and virtual operators in five European countries with high development of the virtual mobile industry. By closely examining KPN we show how being an international mobile group specialising in the wholesale market across Europe has enabled it to exploit complementarities that exist between traditional and virtual businesses.     

Vertical contracts in search markets

This paper studies a simple model to underline the importance of consumer search for understanding wholesale contracts between manufacturers and retailers. The model has one manufacturer and two retailers who compete in a homogeneous goods market where the wholesale contract is unobserved by consumers. If the manufacturer is in the position to offer two-part tariffs, the model without search either does not have an equilibrium wholesale contract (if retailers hold passive beliefs) due to the well-known opportunism problem or it is characterized by the absence of a fixed fee (when retailers hold symmetric beliefs). With consumer search, an equilibrium wholesale contract always exists (even if retailers hold passive beliefs) overcoming the opportunism problem and is always characterized by some fixed fee. If the manufacturer offers linear wholesale contracts, the differences between the models with and without consumer search are less pronounced, but remain even if the search cost vanishes. Thus, the vertical contracting literature cannot simply ignore search costs by saying that they are probably small and can therefore be neglected.     

When prohibiting wholesale price-parity agreements may harm consumers

We study the competitive and welfare effects of wholesale price-parity agreements. These contracts prevent a monopolist, who sells its product to final consumers both directly and indirectly through alternative distribution channels, to charge different input (wholesale) prices to competing intermediaries (e.g., platforms). In a multi-channel and multi-layered industry, organized as an agency business model, we find that the monopolist and the intermediaries do not necessarily have aligned incentives concerning the introduction of wholesale price-parity. While these agreements always hurt the monopolist, they may benefit the intermediaries when competition between the direct and the indirect distribution channels is sufficiently intense. Moreover, when this is the case, in contrast to retail price-parity agreements that typically reduce consumer welfare, wholesale price-parity may also benefit consumers.     

VMCI 下基于批发价决策权转移的供应链效率改进研究

本文在VMCI 模式下,考虑销售努力水平对市场需求的影响,研究批发价决策权由供应商转移至零售商的两级供应链效率改进问题。假定零售商决策批发价和销售努力水平,供应商决策寄售量,建立了零售商主导的Stackelberg 博弈模型,证明了集中决策下的最优解和分散决策下的均衡解均存在且唯一,集中决策下的寄售因子大于分散决策下的对应值。随后,引入收入共享与销售努力成本共担契约,论证了系统中寄售因子保持不变、批发价降低,且当契约参数满足一定条件时,可实现帕累托改进,实现供应链的效率改进。最后,分析了契约参数对于系统决策变量及利润的影响。     

Electronic books: To “E” or not to “E”? A strategic analysis of distribution channel choices of publishers

The advent of electronic books (e-books) has significantly impacted the publishing industry in recent years. The prevalence of e-books has prompted many publishers to reconsider their distribution channels for new titles. They need to decide whether to sell the e-book version of new titles. We derive the conditions under which a publisher should sell only printed books (p-books), only e-books, and both of them simultaneously. We analyze the impact of reader acceptance of e-book and the wholesale price of the counterpart p-book on the distribution channel choice of the publisher under stochastic demand. We find that only if wholesale price of p-book is high and reader acceptance of e-book is low should the publisher sell only p-books; otherwise, he should sell e-books, even when reader acceptance of e-book is low, i.e., in most cases the publisher should sell e-books (perhaps selling p-books simultaneously). In general, the higher the reader acceptance of e-book is, the more the publisher tends to sell the e-book to readers directly. However, our analysis also shows that even when reader acceptance of e-book is very high, the publisher does not necessarily sell only e-books. The wholesale price reflects the publisher's power of negotiation over bookstores. The higher the publisher's power of negotiation over bookstores is, the more he is inclined to sell p-books; and when reader acceptance of e-book is relatively high, the lower the publisher's power of negotiation is, the more he tends to sell only e-books.     

Cost allocation of WCDMA and wholesale pricing for mVoIP and data services

This study estimates cost-based prices for wholesale voice and data services provided to 3G (WCDMA) MVNOs according to their distinct types. For estimation, 3G MVNOs are classified into different types, and the overall cost of WCDMA facilities are separated into voice and data components based on their subscriber rates, actual traffic rates, as well as efficiency consideration of traffic rates. The study then calculates cost-based wholesale prices of voice and data services for each of the 3G MVNO types. The result of this study shows that a cost-plus pricing scheme can help achieve the policy goals of the regulator, namely, lowering telecommunications tariffs and facilitating the introduction of new convergent-type services, far more effectively than the current retail-minus pricing scheme. The findings of this study may assist firms in developing business models based on 3G networks and telecom regulators in designing policies related to interconnection, mVoIP, prepaid calls, wholesale services, and network neutrality.     

邮电通信业市场势力测度及对行业发展影响的实证分析

测度市场势力是监控垄断行业滥用市场势力和反垄断的前提,价格—边际成本差额(即勒纳指数)测度法是广泛认可的市场势力测度方法,但由于边际成本的不可获得性,实际上难以直接应用。本文以广受关注的邮电通信业为例解决了这一难题:基于行业数据特征,通过适当变换替代了经济学难以度量的边际成本和实物量,得到了一种能直接计算勒纳指数的方法,该方法适合于观察中长期市场势力,计量分析中明显优于使用价格—平均成本替代价格—边际成本的功效。基于测度结果,实证了市场势力、技术进步(考虑动态效率)、市场结构变化对行业发展的影响。研究发现,技术进步对行业增长有大的贡献,但市场势力产生了负效应,电信业市场结构调整没有达到业务分拆的初衷。上述研究方法和结论对政府制定垄断行业价格成本监审办法和反垄断立法有借鉴意义。     

Versorgungssicherheit auf Elektrizitätsmärkten — Investitionsdilemma durch ineffizientes Marktdesign?

This article addresses the investment dilemma in the area of power generation, which in insufficiently designed, liberalized power markets leads macroeconomically to undesirably low levels of energy supply security. The prime causes for this dilemma in the German power market are rooted first in damages for suppliers which are limited in cases of generation capacity-induced power failures and second in the time delay between the final trading opportunity and the actual power delivery. The latter inhibits the ability to individually balance unexpected changes in rates of power generation and discharge at any time. Furthermore, the following factors contribute to an intensification of the dilemma: insufficient end user participation in the wholesale market, a lack of single end user cut-off options, as well as time lags in the construction of generation capacities combined with various market uncertainties. Potential approaches to a sustainable improvement of supply security include on the one hand an increase in liquidity of intraday trading to align market clearing and power delivery as closely as possible. The promotion of direct marketing for renewable energy along with other strategies will lead to such an improvement. On the other hand, end users’ utilization of smart meters should be enhanced. Thus, peak load could be moderated and allows for the inclusion of end users’ willingness to pay into the wholesale market.     

Mixed Oligopoly and Market Power Mitigation: Evidence from the Colombian Wholesale Electricity Market*

Using information on price bids in wholesale electricity pools and empirical techniques described in the literature on electricity markets, this study identifies the market power mitigation effect of public firms in the Colombian market. The results suggest that while private firms exercise less market power than is predicted by a profit-maximization model, there are marked differences between private and public firms in their exercise of unilateral market power. These findings support the hypothesis of the market power mitigation effect of public firms.     

美国电力管理体制的改革

美国电力工业从上世纪九十年代起开始改革。二十多年来,美国联邦能源监管委员会在建立电力批发市场方面以及在建立区域输电系统方面进行了一系列改革,包括对电力企业实行放松管制、引入竞争机制,开放输电网络、市场定价,无歧视入网、搁浅成本的处理、输电系统的信息透明化等,最终使美国的电力系统效率更高、电价更低,服务质量逐步提高。     

中国天然气发电产业发展现状及展望

中国燃气发电装机及发电量占比较小,发电用气占比低于全球平均水平;发电设备利用小时数较低,平均上网电价较高。当前中国天然气发电产业面临的挑战包括:政策体系尚不健全,产业定位不清晰;天然气资源保障存在不确定性;气电燃料与设备运维成本偏高;上网电价的定价机制尚待理顺;电力市场改革快速推进,市场竞争更加激烈。中国电力需求将延续增长态势,电源结构向低碳转型;中国天然气行业处于高速发展期,气源供应保障能力进一步提升;供给宽松期叠加市场化改革加速期,促进发电用气成本下降;燃气发电电力工程造价呈下降趋势,这些都是天然气发电产业的机遇。展望"十四五"期间,实现"十三五"气电装机规划目标存在较大难度;受经济性制约,"十四五"期间气电发展节奏的不确定性较大;生态环境约束背景下,中长期天然气发电发展空间依然广阔;中国天然气发电产业发展路径将呈现多元化趋势。     

Vertical Contracts and Downstream Entry*

We study the implications of different contractual forms in a market with an incumbent upstream monopolist and free downstream entry. We show that traditional conclusions regarding the desirability of linear contracts radically change when entry in the downstream market is endogenous rather than exogenous. By triggering more entry than two-part tariffs, wholesale price contracts can generate higher aggregate output, consumer surplus, and welfare. In light of this, the upstream monopolist may prefer to trade with wholesale price contracts as well as to give up part of its bargaining power when it is high.     

Upstream-Downstream Specialization by Integrated Firms in a Partially Integrated Industry

We propose a simple model of a partially integrated industry which explicitly takes into account persistent production cost differences across upstream firms, such as one might observe in natural resource industries. The model allows us to highlight the respective roles of strategic considerations and of cost considerations in the determination of an integrated firm's interaction with the non-integrated sector of the industry and, in the end, on its relative upstream-downstream specialization. Some crude stylized facts from the world oil industry are used to motivate and illustrate the analysis.     

中轻联牵线搭桥 美国亚世商城力邀中国轻工企业赴美发展 共拓中国轻工精品走向世界新干线

明年8月份,在美国佐治亚州风景秀美的港口城市——萨凡纳市,一座为中国轻工企业兴建的、专门展示和经销中国轻工精品的五星级批发中心——美国亚世商城将拔地而起,该商城建设面积8.3万平方米,全部采用顶级标准施工建设,美国亚世商城公司表示,每年将举办五个大型批发展吸引来自美国、加拿大、欧洲、南美等多个国家与地区的超过25万名采购商来此洽商贸易,中国轻工企业在进驻商城,入境签证、开设分公司等方面将获得一站式便利服务和诸多优惠政策。