The Global Competition for Wild Fish Resources between Livestock and Aquaculture

Aquaculture satisfies a growing global demand for fish but also consumes an increasing share of the world’s wild fish resources. This has led to a concern that increased aquaculture production poses a threat to the sustainability of capture fisheries. We use a shrinkage estimator to estimate fishmeal demand from countries with different make‐up of meat and farmed salmon production. Although we are not able to identify structural differences between these sectors, the empirical results show that fishmeal demand is price inelastic. Technological change, however, is reducing fishmeal usage in feeds, suggesting that strong demand pressure on pelagic fish resources targeted for fishmeal is a temporary phenomenon.     

The Demand for Salmon in the European Union: The Importance of Product Form and Origin

This paper addresses the importance of different product forms and their origin when considering the market structure in the European salmon market. The competition between farmed salmon and wild caught Pacific salmon has received some attention previously. However, this was before frozen Atlantic salmon emerged as an important product form in the market. This could be important as frozen Atlantic salmon is more likely to be a close substitute for Pacific salmon, which is mostly marketed frozen, than is fresh Atlantic salmon. In this paper, an almost ideal demand system is used to estimate the demand for fresh Atlantic salmon, frozen Atlantic salmon and frozen Pacific salmon in the European Union.     

Comparing heterogeneous consumption in U.S. and Japanese meat and fish demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre‐committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre‐committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre‐committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre‐committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups.     

Residual demand measures of market power of Russian wheat exporters

Traditionally, the international wheat market has been considered a good example of a market with perfect competition. Yet, several articles provide evidence of imperfect competition and price discrimination in the wheat trade. However, these studies focused on traditional high‐quality wheat exporters such as Canada and the United States. In contrast, this article investigates whether Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in eight selected importing countries using the residual demand elasticity (RDE) model. The article makes two major contributions. First, it focuses on a nontraditional exporter, who exports mainly wheat of mediocre quality to low‐ and middle‐income countries. Second, the RDE model is estimated for the first time using a nonlinear estimator, the instrumental variable Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator. This is important because the double logarithmic functional form can provide biased results in the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that Russian wheat exporters can exercise market power in only a few markets, while they are price takers in the majority of importing countries.     

Priority setting for research on aquatic resources: an application of modified economic surplus analysis to natural resource systems

In contrast to research on farming systems, research on natural resource systems seldom applies rigorous priority setting techniques, mainly due to difficulties associated with estimating research impact ex ante for such systems. This article presents a replicable approach to priority setting that addresses these difficulties. Assessment is based on multiple criteria, combining economic surplus analysis with subjective scoring, based on information drawn from a cross‐country survey of expert opinion. The approach is applied to the WorldFish Center, a global agricultural research organization focusing on living aquatic resources, both farmed and wild. The exercise demonstrates the relevance of conventional evaluation techniques to fisheries research based on a practical application of its impact pathways.     

A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Costs of Farming Atlantic Salmon (Salmo Salar)

Commercial aquaculture, the cultivation of fish in managed systems, has received increasing attention in recent years as an alternative source of fish, employment and income. High value species particularly offer a better prospect of profitable farming. For example, Atlantic salmon, which is one of the more expensive species on the market, is now being farmed in Norway, Scotland, Canada, the United States, and several other countries. Norway has made rapid progress in Atlantic salmon aquaculture; farmed salmon have now replaced cod as her principal export species. In the opinion of some observers, Norway' s success in farming the Atlantic salmon is the most significant event in the history of European aquaculture (United States Department of Commerce, 1984).
Commercial aquaculture in Canada is still in its initial stage of development, but recently there has been increased interest in aquaculture as a means of generating incomes and jobs, and of acquiring technological expertise. The Science Council of Canada has urged a commitment towards commercial aquaculture; it cites Norwegian aquaculture that by the year 2000 could be producing fish worth U.S. $3 billion and be employing 50.000 people (Science Council of Canada 1985). In Canada, farming of Atlantic salmon is expanding rapidly on both east and west coasts. Canada' s output of farmed Atlantic salmon reached 174t in 1984 and is forecast to reach 1,200t by 1987, with a further immediate potential on the east coast of 2.000–3,000t. On the west coast, more than a million Atlantic salmon eggs have been imported for hatching and for cultivation in sea pens. The number of Atlantic salmon farms on the west coast is projected to more than double by the end of 1986.     

On farmland prices and rents in Japan

Historically, the Japanese farmland market has been strongly regulated, although fundamental changes in policy were introduced in 1967 and 1980. This article examines the relationship between farmland prices and rents in Japan for 1955–2000 using the cointegration procedure of Johansen et al. (2000) , which admits structural breaks. Results show the presence of a cointegrating relationship with a significant break in 1980. There is Granger‐causality from prices to rents, which suggests that rents are determined within an institutional setting according to farmland prices. The rent–price elasticity is unity, which supports the notion of efficiency in the farmland market.     

Social welfare effects of removing multiple exchange rates: evidence from the rice trade in Iran

In order to encourage the involvement of the private sector in importing rice, the Iranian government plans to relax the system of multiple foreign exchange rates applied to importers wishing to supply the domestic market. In this article, the welfare effects of removing the current controls on the rice trade, and a domestic rice coupon program, are evaluated by applying a partial equilibrium analysis to 1961–1999 data. The results show that, as far as foreign exchange is concerned, liberalization of the rice market causes an increase in rice imports, mainly due to a decrease in domestic supply. In welfare terms, the loss in producer surplus from rice market liberalization is relatively high, but most rice consumers, and the Iranian taxpayer, would gain. Overall, gains to consumers and taxpayers are estimated to be higher than the losses incurred by domestic suppliers, and therefore net social welfare at national level can be improved by rice market liberalization in Iran. Issues for further discussion include residual food security roles for the state, and supply‐side adjustments in terms of resource use and higher‐quality production.     

Consumer Attitudes Toward Mandatory Traceability and Labeling Systems for Farmed Atlantic Salmon

The food incidence of polychlorinated biphenyls in farmed Atlantic salmon in Canada and its subsequent effects on the demand for farm-raised salmon has induced policymakers and stakeholders to develop new policies on food safety. This article analyzes consumer attitudes toward mandatory traceability and labeling systems for farmed Atlantic salmon in Newfoundland and Labrador. It identifies factors affecting consumers' decisions to purchase the product. Results show that consumers, on average, perceive the benefits of traceability and labeling systems on farm-raised Atlantic salmon in spite of its driving up the product price.     

Comparative Advantage in Demand: Experimental Evidence of Preferences for Genetically Modified Food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union(EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers’ attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large‐scale, cross‐Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non‐hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focuses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on‐going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.     

Import Demands for Norwegian Farmed Atlantic Salmon and Wild Pacific Salmon in North America,Japan and the EC

Import demands for Atlantic and Pacific salmon are estimated for Japan, the European Community and North America. Cross-price elasticities indicate that wild high-valued Pacific salmon (chinook. coho and sockeye) and farmed Atlantic salmon are substitute goods in the marketplace. This finding implies that movements in the prices of both fanned and wild salmon can be caused by supply or demand changes in the market for either type of salmon. This result in turn has important implications for future markets and prices of fanned and wild salmon in Canada and the United States La demande à l'importation pour le saunion de l'Atlantique et du Pacifique esl eslimée pour le Japon, la CEE et l'Amerique du Nord. Les valeurs d'elaslicité croisée montrenl que le saumon “sauvage” du Pacifique hautement prisé (chinook, coho et sockeve) et le saumon d'elevage de l'Atlantique peuvent se substituer l'un à l'autre sur le manhé. Cette consultation signifie quedes mouvements dans les prix des deux types de saunion peuvent étre causés par des fluctuation de l'offre et de la demande affectant l'un ou l'autre type. Cela comporte d'imponantes répercussions pour I'avenir sur le manhé el sur les prix du saumon tant sauvage que d‘élevage au Canada et aux États-Unis     

A hedonic approach to estimating the supply of variety attributes of a subsistence crop

The article extends the household hedonic model by estimating a supply function for variety attributes of a subsistence crop in a developing economy. The model is applied to bananas in Uganda, making use of disaggregated data on variety‐specific farm‐gate banana bunch prices and attributes, while accounting for the semisubsistence nature of banana‐producing households. The article is motivated by the need to understand the attribute trade‐offs made by farmers at the farm gate in light of targeted variety improvement efforts and their impact on banana markets. Whether variety improvement will pay off at the market level requires a more detailed examination of the relative worth of banana attributes within the structure of consumer preferences and production technologies related to bananas in Uganda. The results confirm the importance of consumption and production attributes in selling behavior. Quality and bunch size are found to be complements at the farm gate. Banana bunches that capture a premium at the market will be those that provide bundles of desirable consumption and production attributes simultaneously. By revealing important price–attribute relationships, the findings provide guidance for crop improvement efforts and diversification choices, while taking into account implicit market signals for output attributes.     

Regime Shifts in the Fish Meal/Soybean Meal Price Ratio

Aquaculture growth has led to worries about overfishing and reduction in wild‐caught food fish supply because of increased demand for fish meal. As such, the price ratio between fish meal and soybean meal has received much attention as an indicator of changing market conditions. In recent years, the price ratio between these two commodities has become more volatile. Several authors have suggested that the traditional relationship between fish meal and soybean meal has broken down and that this is evidence of increased demand pressure on fish meal. In this article, we investigate the hypothesis that there are two regimes for the relative price between fish meal and soybean meal. The empirical results support this hypothesis, with the low‐price regime representing the traditional stable relative price. The continued linkages between the fish meal and the soybean meal markets indicate that aquaculture is reducing its dependency on marine proteins in favour of vegetable proteins.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

The costs of global tariff barriers on wool products: 1997–2005

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations commits World Trade Organization (WTO) members to improving market access for both agricultural and nonagricultural goods. Tariff barriers on wool products represent a small but important subset of these negotiations. To inform the debate on the round, we analyze the distortionary effects of recent (1997–2005) tariff barriers on wool products using a model that applies a comprehensive analytical approach with regard to the production, trade, and consumption of wool products. We also account for any indirect effects of wool tariff barriers on the nonwool economy by incorporating the production, trade, and consumption of nonwool products, that is, the framework is a comparative‐static global general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the world wool market. Changes in wool tariffs over 1997–2005 lead to positive welfare effects for most regions; Italy, China, and the UK are estimated to have gained the most from the changes. The results indicate that the nature of recent wool tariffs severely distort the size of wool industries in different regions. The changes in the output of wool commodities are extreme reflecting the discriminatory nature of the tariffs.     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

The Demand for Atlantic Salmon in Canada: Reply

In their comment on our paper, Bing-Hwan Lin and Nancy Williams have raised some interesting issues, but some of them are peripheral to the objective of our original study. The central objective of our original paper is to estimate income and price elasticities of demand for Atlantic salmon in Canada and then to use the parameter values to evaluate the market potential of farmed Atlantic salmon which are now being produced in Atlantic Canada. Accordingly, a demand equation has been estimated using annual data for the period 1955–1981. The inverted form has given a good fit and the results are reported in the paper.     

Yield quality and irrigation with saline water under environmental limitations: the case of processing tomatoes in California

Irrigation with saline water has a positive impact on some quality indices of processing tomatoes, but with concomitant reductions in output quantity. This article studies the impact of the trade‐off between these two factors on optimal water management under waterlogging and costly drainage‐disposal conditions. The focus is on the content of total soluble solids as a quality measure affecting prices paid by California processors to tomato growers. A function relating quality to water and salinity applications and a quality hedonic‐price function are estimated and introduced into a static, field‐level mathematical programming model. The model calculates optimal water management under environmental regulations associated with drainage disposal in California. Findings indicate that only when the quality effect is taken into account does blending fresh surface‐water with saline drain‐water become an optimal strategy. Management and policy implications on the regional scale are discussed.     

Protecting Biotechnology IPRs in Developing Countries: Simple Analytics of a Levy Solution

High transaction costs and an absence of institutional infrastructure in developing countries prevent comprehensive enforcement of intellectual property rights and generate obstacles to the adoption of genetically modified (GM) crop technology. Governments of developing countries that are members of the World Trade Organization are faced with two options when licensing GM crop technology: (1) attempt to regulate GM crops to the standards of the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) or (2) allow a black market in GM seeds and risk trade retaliation from the GM innovator's host country through a TRIPS trade complaint. This paper develops a conceptual model that frames the adopting country's range of licensing options, including a new levy system, and derives welfare measures for each option. The model illustrates how a levy on GM technology can be a welfare‐increasing policy for developing countries, and the operation of a levy is discussed. The conceptual model is applied to Brazil's soybean market and quantitative economic surplus measures are estimated within a calibrated welfare model for a range of licensing scenarios. The model's results suggest that a levy may interfere with the long‐term prospects for innovators to collect monopoly rents in adopting countries.