基于经验模态分解的空气质量指数组合预测方法及应用

空气质量发展趋势的预测对于空气污染问题的防治具有非常重要的意义。因此,本文提出了基于经验模态分解(EMD)的空气质量指数(AQI)的一种组合预测方法。我们首先运用经验模态分解(EMD)的方法对非平稳、非线性且呈剧烈波动的时间序列即AQI原始数据进行多尺度分解。其次,我们分别使用4种常用的单项预测方法:灰色预测(GM)、ARIMA、BP神经网络和支持向量回归(SVR),分别对于分解后的本征模态函数(IMF)序列和趋势序列进行预测,得到单项预测结果。为了提高预测的精度,我们选用平均相对误差(MRE)较小的前三种单项预测方法,并对它们的预测结果进行组合预测。最后,运用熵权法分别计算出IMF序列和趋势序列的组合预测值,并将所有预测值求和得到AQI的最终预测结果。为了评价模型的预测效果,我们选用四种常用误差评价指标,对各个模型的预测结果进行评价比较,而仿真实验的结果表明了本文提出的基于经验模态分解的空气质量指数组合预测方法具有较高的预测精度和良好的适用性。     

中国黄金期货价格的SVR智能预测研究

以中国黄金期货为研究对象,选取了开盘价、最高价、最低价、收盘价、成交量和成交额6项指标作为样本的特征指标变量,运用归一化方法消除特征指标变量间因量纲不同而造成的预测误差,进而引入支持向量回归机(Support Vector Regression Machine,SVR)智能方法对该期货的开盘价格进行预测研究,并通过引入网格搜索法对SVR模型的最优参数进行寻找,从而构建了最优的SVR智能预测模型。通过对训练样本集与测试样本集的实证研究发现,文章所构建的最优SVR智能预测模型具有优越的学习性能与泛化推广性能,能够准确地预测中国黄金期货的价格。     

基于PSO-SVR的气膜薄壳钢筋混凝土穹顶储仓的工期预测

为客观、合理地进行气膜薄壳钢筋混凝土穹顶储仓的工期预测,提出了基于PSO-SVR的预测方法。采用粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)对支持向量回归机(support vector regression,SVR)的参数进行优化,并运用优化后的支持向量回归机对气膜薄壳钢筋混凝土穹顶储仓的工期进行预测。通过实例验证表明:PSO-SVR模型的预测效果优于遗传算法(GA-SVR)和串联型灰色神经网络(SGNN)。     

一种新的变权重组合预测方法在汇率中的应用

本文介绍了一种基于Kalman滤波的变权重组合预测方法,并对人民币/美元的汇率进行了实证分析,结果表明该方法在预测精度和拟合程度上优于传统的单项预测方法.     

基于熵技术的公共事业费最优组合预测

本文采取了一种基于支持向量机的预测方法对公共事业费的支出情况进行了预测。计算结果证明,这种方法与传统的方法相比,具有更好的泛化能力,可以使神经网络方法出现的过拟合、网络结构难以确定等问题得到有效地解决,因而该方法可以作为一种新途径用于研究此类问题。     

基于改进粒子群算法的SVR参数优化选择的研究

支持向量回归机(SVR)模型的拟合精度和泛化能力取决于其相关参数的选取,由于在参数的选择范围内可选择的数量是无穷的,在多个参数中盲目搜索最优参数是需要极大的时间代价,并且很难逼近最优。因此提出了基于改进粒子群算法的SVR参数优化选择方法。仿真结果表明:该改进粒子群算法优化SVR参数方法可行、有效,由此得到的SVR模型具有更好的学习精度和推广能力。     

基于FOA-SVR算法的边坡稳定性预测方法及其软件设计

针对一般边坡失稳预测方法的样本归一化处理、选择经验核函数等带来的预测误差,本文利用果蝇优化算法优化支持向量回归的回归参数（FOA—SVR）,选择“bspline”核函数,对于边坡训练样本不做归一化处理,通过训练来对边坡稳定性进行预测,并且利用MATLAB编程将上述算法可视化,开发出了基于FOA—SVR的边坡预测软件。算例的计算结果显示,预测值和实际值一致,算法精度较高,而且软件系统稳定,界面简洁,具有很强的实用性。     

基于核Fisher判别分析的油田油水层预测

对新疆油田公司的测井数据,利用核Fisher判别分析法(KFDA)判别油层水层。首先通过非线性映射(由核函数隐含定义)将样本映射到特征空间,然后在特征空间中用fisher判别分析(FDA)进行分类。实验结果表明,KFDA方法的预测准确率达92.9%,高于用Fisher判别分析法及人工神经网络(ANN)、支持向量机(SVM)方法进行判别的准确率。     

汇率基本面模型对人民币汇率的预测能力

本文选取五个主流的汇率基本面模型,使用2005年汇改后的人民币兑美元、欧元、日元、英镑汇率数据进行样本内拟合和样本外预测,并通过计算损失函数和SPA统计量比较五种模型的预测能力。实证结果表明：随机游走模型短期内具有更优的预测能力,但中长期内,汇率基本面模型具有更优的预测能力;总体来讲,汇率基本面模型的预测能力优于随机游走模型,人民币汇率不存在“汇率失联之谜”;对不同的货币,具有最优预测能力的模型不同。     

收益率平价在货币危机预测中的应用

在本文中，我们首次提出了用收益率差作为领先指标来预测由危机的发生。本文从理论上证明了过去的实际收益率中包含预期收益率信息，从而从理论上解决了用过去实际的收益率差来预测货币危机的可行性问题。对19个国家25年（1975－2000）月度数据的拟合效果表明，经汇率调整后对美国股市收益差有着较好的预测结果，同时我们的结果也表明收益率预测指标对2001年7月爆发的阿根廷货币危机有较好的样本外测效果。     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Incumplimiento del salario mínimo en Europa central y oriental

En este estudio se analiza el incumplimiento del salario mínimo durante el periodo 2003–2012 en diez países de Europa central y oriental con salario mínimo obligatorio nacional. A partir de los datos de EU‐SILC y la metodología propuesta por Bhorat, Kanbur y Mayet (2013), se cuantifica la incidencia y magnitud del incumplimiento. Se realizan análisis de regresión sobre determinantes individuales, laborales y macroeconómicos. Aunque la incidencia permanece relativamente baja, los trabajadores a los que se dirigen las políticas de salario mínimo parecen los más expuestos a su incumplimiento. Con el tiempo, una mayor incidencia se asocia a una razón más alta entre salario mínimo y salario medio.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Cultural Economy Planning in Creative Cities: Discourse and Practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.     

Input/output ranges and performance: an examination of US machine tool producers

Despite the establishment of high-tech multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Ireland since the late 1950s, the country did not succeed in closing the technological gap with most of its EU counterparts. The weak National System of Innovation (NSI), and in particular low business and government R&D levels, combined with a lack of research and technology linkages between MNEs and indigenous firms, explain these poor results. However, the Shannon region in the West of the country presents some specific institutional characteristics that could theoretically make the region a strong technological enclave. The various actors in the region - i.e. the administrative, financial, political and research institutions, as well as the business organizations - have indeed infused a new type of economic development. After a brief review of the available concepts and models articulated around these actors and their interrelationships, the paper analyses whether the Shannon region, taken as an illustrative example, mirrors a specific economic and technological localized setting. The study is based on a survey of indigenous and foreign firms.     

Sixty years of discrimination and diversity research in human resource management: A review with suggestions for future research directions

This article reviews discrimination and diversity research published in Human Resource Management (HRM) over the past 60 years. While discrimination and diversity are very different constructs, it is often informative to study them together, because when people recognize each other's diversity, this can result in bias, stereotyping, and discrimination. We conducted bibliographic searches for terms related to discrimination and diversity as well as a manual search through every title and abstract published in HRM over the last 60 years to assess article relevance. The search resulted in 135 research articles with 136 unique studies (i.e., samples) which are reviewed in this article. Sex and race are the demographics that have been examined the most in HRM, while religion has been examined the least. Moreover, the number of studies examining lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) employees in the workplace in HRM has grown quickly within the past 10 years, culminating in a recent meta‐analysis. Our review looks at some of the earliest research published, the most recent research published, and the overall trends we identified in the research over the years for both discrimination and diversity articles. We then make future research suggestions and recommendations to advance the study of discrimination and diversity in the coming years.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

Ansätze und Ergebnisse anglo-amerikanischer M&A-Forschung

Based on a review of established U.S. management journals (1995–2003), six schools of thought are identified within the Anglo-American M&;A research: “Capital Market”, “Principal/Agent”, “Industrial Organization”, “Organizational Behavior”, “Human Resources” and “Strategic Management”. The literature review shows that the definition of M&;A success, the methods applied, and insights from empirical research differ according to the respective school of thought. Empirical studies focus on the resource combinations of merger partners, the specific circumstances of merger negotiations, and on integration management as antecedents of merger performance. Unfortunately, empirical findings have not yet provided reliable explanations for M&;A success. Based on the current state of Anglo-American M&;A research, the authors discuss implications for business practice, identify research gaps, and propose areas for future research.