The impact of productivity and demand shocks on structural dynamics: Evidence from Austrian manufacturing

Based on Pasinetti's model of structural dynamics we develop an empirical identification strategy for aggregate and sectoral labor productivity and demand shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model with long-run restrictions. Impulse response analysis shows that we can distinguish four patterns of the effects of changes in demand and productivity growth on sectoral output growth. For some industries demand is indeed the factor driving sectoral growth. Labor productivity and demand shocks are closely associated with the growth rates of employment and output across industries. However, there is less correlation with entry and exit. This suggest that structural change within and between industries may have quite different determinants.     

Entry regulation and international trade

We use cross-country, cross-industry data to analyse the relationship between entry regulation and international trade. We find robust evidence that entry regulation discourages exports of industries with low natural barriers to entry. This implies that, in international markets, countries with heavy entry regulation have a comparative disadvantage in industries that are technologically easy to enter. Further analysis shows that the result is partly due to the negative impact of entry regulation on productivity.     

Exporting, productivity and agglomeration

Economic analysis of adjustment to globalisation has shifted from countries and industries to firms and plants. One particularly fruitful area for research has been aspects of entry to, participation in and exit from export markets. This paper contributes to that literature. Its focus is the exporting behaviour of manufacturing firms in the United Kingdom. To isolate the impact of participation in export markets we use nearest neighbour matching. For 1988-2002, we find evidence that spillovers associated with agglomeration can raise the probability of export market entry and once entry has occurred there may be additional productivity benefits. Survival is driven partly by size and total factor productivity and partly by industry characteristics.     

EXPORT‐MARKET DYNAMICS AND THE PROBABILITY OF FIRM CLOSURE: EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the United Kingdom with an emphasis on the role of export‐market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all‐market‐based sectors during 1997–2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export‐market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm's survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, while inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.     

Market size and entry in international trade: Product versus firm fixed costs

This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm‐level product range (scope). Few firms enter with many products and dominate international trade. If fixed costs are at the product level, an interfirm spillover reduces the fixed costs to export for all firms producing the product. The resulting entry pattern consists of many firms exporting different varieties of the same product. Using cross‐country data on firm and product entry, I find empirical evidence consistent with product‐level costs. More firms than products enter in larger markets offering their consumers lower prices and a greater variety of goods within the product category.     

ENTRY REGULATIONS,WELFARE, AND DETERMINANTS OF MARKET STRUCTURE

Welfare effects of entry regulations are theoretically ambiguous in differentiated product markets. We use a dynamic oligopoly model of entry and exit with store‐type differentiation and static price setting to evaluate how entry regulations affect long‐run profitability, market structure, and welfare. Based on unique data for all retail food stores in Sweden, we estimate demand, recover variable profits, and estimate entry costs and fixed costs by store type. Counterfactual policy experiments show that welfare increases when competition is enhanced by lower entry costs. Protecting small stores by imposing licensing fees on large stores is not welfare enhancing.     

Productivity Performance of Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from Indian Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on exporting and firm productivity, focusing on export entry (efficiency), learning (post‐entry growth) and exit (inefficiency) by Indian firms. Drawing on 7000 firms during 1989–2009, our main objective is to examine the effect of exporting on firm productivity, correcting for selection bias using propensity‐score matching, which allows a “like‐for‐like” comparison between new exporters and nonexporters. Robust to different matching estimators, we find evidence of learning‐by‐exporting that new exporters acquire rapid productivity growth after entry, relative to nonexporters. We also find that (1) exporters are more productive than nonexporters; (2) productive firms tend to self‐select in entering the exporting market, and (3) least productive exporters are found to exit the export market as they experience adverse productivity effect prior to the year of exit. Our robust result on learning‐by‐exporting suggests that entering export market does appear to be a channel explaining the Indian recent growth miracle.     

Export Market Dynamics and Plant‐Level Productivity: Impact of Tariff Reductions and Exchange‐Rate Cycles*

In this paper, we examine how changes in tariff rates and industry‐specific real exchange rates affect the entry/exit process to export markets and productivity growth. Using the experience of the Canadian manufacturing sector over three decades, we find that firms in export markets enjoy faster productivity growth than non‐participants. The size of the growth advantage depends on whether real exchange rates are increasing or decreasing. The increase in the value of the Canadian dollar during the post‐2000 period almost completely offset the productivity growth advantages enjoyed by new exporters during this period.     

Environmental protection without loss of international competitiveness

We develop a two‐country Cournot oligopoly model with product differentiation across countries and production‐generated pollution. The abatement of pollution by the firms in response to emission taxes is endogenous, and the number of firms can be fixed or there may be free entry and exit of firms in both countries. We propose particular unilateral and multilateral piecemeal policy reforms of emission taxes and production subsidies such that domestic industries will not suffer any loss of international competitiveness (defined in terms of either market share or profits), emission levels will be lower, and welfare could be higher in both countries.     

Entry and exit of manufacturing plants over the business cycle

This paper analyzes the plant-level entry and exit over the business cycle. We document basic patterns of entry and exit of U.S. manufacturing plants between 1972 and 1997. We find that the entry rate is more cyclical than the exit rate. We also find that the differences in productivity and employment between booms and recessions are particularly larger for entering plants than for exiting plants. Our new finding suggests that the selection at the entry margin may be more important than the selection at the exit margin in understanding the plant-level dynamics over the business cycle.     

An Empirical Examination of Entry Patterns in Local Telephone Markets*

In this analysis we examine the market entry patterns of new local telephone companies. We construct and estimate a multinomial logit model using information describing numbering code distribution within local telephone markets and the associated income, density, and regulatory characteristics of these markets. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that facilities-based entry by new local competitors is more likely to occur in large urban telephone markets. In addition, we present evidence that, with the exception of territories served by Ameritech, entry is more likely to occur in Bell Operating Company service territories.     

Market structure and competition in transition: results from a spatial analysis

The present article provides first microlevel (indirect) empirical evidence on changes in entry barriers, the determinants of firm profitability as well as the nature of competition for a transition economy. We estimate size thresholds required to support different numbers of firms for several retail and professional service industries in a large number of geographic markets in Slovakia. The 3 time periods in the analysis (1995, 2001 and 2010) characterize different stages of the transition process. Specific emphasis is given to spatial spill-over effects between local markets. Estimation results obtained from a spatial ordered probit model suggest that entry barriers have declined considerably (except for restaurants) and that the intensity of competition has increased on average. We further find that demand spill-overs and/or the effects associated with a positive correlation in unobservable explanatory variables seem to outweigh negative spill-over effects caused by competitive forces between neighbouring cities and villages. The importance of these spatial spill-over effects differs across industries.     

RISING WAGES: HAS CHINA LOST ITS GLOBAL LABOR ADVANTAGE?

We document dramatic rising wages in China for the period 1978–2007 based on multiple sources of aggregate statistics. Although real wages increased seven‐fold during the period, growth was uneven across ownership types, industries and regions. Over the past decade, the wages of state‐owned enterprises have increased rapidly and wage disparities between skill‐intensive and labour‐intensive industries have widened. Comparisons of international data show that China's manufacturing wage has already converged to that of Asian emerging markets, but China still enjoys enormous labour cost advantages over its neighbouring developed economies. Our analysis suggests that China's wage growth will stabilize to a moderate pace in the near future.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PLANT DYNAMICS BY SIZE: KOREAN MANUFACTURING

A comparative analysis on Korean manufacturing plants is performed by size of plants and sources of TFP growth are decomposed into entry, exit, and survival effects of plants, focusing on the pre- and post-crisis periods. Additional survival analyses investigate internal and external determinants of the survival of plants. The results indicate that the exit of small- and medium-sized establishments (SMEs) with higher productivity is becoming problematic in the post-crisis period. The improvements in large-scale establishments (LSEs) after the crisis appeared to occur generally in high-technology industrial sectors; SMEs in low-technology industries are suffering from a sluggish market selection process.     

International Trade and Collective Bargaining Outcomes: Evidence from German Employer–Employee Data

In theoretical trade models with variable mark‐ups and collective wage bargaining, exposure to international markets might reduce the exporter wage premium. We test this prediction using linked German employer–employee data covering the years 1996–2007. To separate the rent‐sharing mechanism from assortative matching, we exploit individual worker information to construct profitability measures that are free of skill composition. Our results show that rent‐sharing is less pronounced in more export‐intensive firms or in more open industries. The exporter wage premium is highest for low‐productivity firms. In line with theory, these findings are unique to the subsample of plants covered by collective bargaining.     

Foreign direct investment in R&D and domestic entrepreneurship in China’s manufacturing industries

This paper argues that internationalization of innovation and the related spillovers can also affect the likelihood of firm entry and exit into an industry. By making use of firm-level panel data from China over the period 2005 to 2007, this paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in research and development (R&D) and the related linkages on entry and exit likelihoods of domestic firms in (i) transport equipment and (ii) electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries. In order to evaluate the region-of-origin effect, this paper also separately examines the impact of FDI in R&D originating from (i) all countries except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and (ii) Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Furthermore, the impact of FDI in R&D on entry and exit of Chinese firms in the two industries is examined by splitting the data into large and small firms within the two industries. The results of the pooled probit regression reveal that FDI in R&D and the related spillovers can have a significant impact on the likelihood of entry and exit of domestic firms in transport equipment and electric machinery and equipment industries. The empirical analysis also suggests that the impact of changes in FDI in R&D and the related spillovers varies across firm size.     

Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export

While determinants of FDI patterns have received widespread attention, the timing of their surge remains largely unexplained. According to the proximity–concentration trade‐off argument, a surge in FDI in times of decaying international transportation costs seemingly represents a paradox. Besides transportation costs, other factors have contextually changed: in particular, the uncertainty that firms bear has increased. Enriching the classical choice problem of a multinational firm with insights from the literature on investment under uncertainty, we illustrate how different types of uncertainty determine the timing and optimal entry mode (i.e. FDI or export) of a multinational enterprise into a new market.     

Trade Liberalization and Technology Diffusion

The paper considers the role of technology diffusion and trade liberalization for the catching‐up of structurally backward countries. A New Economic Geography model is presented that accounts for firm entry/exit and international mobility of skilled labor employed in public R&D sectors. This raises the traditional agglomeration effects in a core–periphery setting as firms and mobile factors usually cluster within spatial agglomerations. With international technology diffusion, however, there is a counteracting effect on the traditional agglomeration effects as firms in the periphery also benefit from increasing R&D expenditures in the core lowering entry costs for firms. It is found that the catching‐up of structurally backward countries is spurred not only as a result of trade integration but also because of technology diffusion.     

Micro evidence on international patenting

Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated patenting in foreign markets. We use a simple model of international patenting, where the decision to patent in a foreign country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a detailed database on individual patents owned by small Swedish firms and inventors, we are able to estimate some of these relationships and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the quality of the invention, technological rivalry and market size in the host market.     

Entry,market turbulence and industry employment growth

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial dynamics in terms of firm entry, market turbulence and employment growth. Do entry of firms, the composition of industry dynamics (net entry) and market turbulence (entry and exit) influence industrial employment growth? This paper provides an empirical investigation, using unique data for 42 disaggregated Swedish industrial sectors during the period 1997–2001. It is hypothesised that the importance of entering firms, net entry and market turbulence may differ significantly across industries. A quantile regression method is used in order to detect industrial differences in the response to industrial employment growth. The empirical evidence shows that, on the one hand, firm entry and market turbulence have a positive effect on employment for fast growing industries and that the effect is larger for high growth industries. On the other hand, the composition of industry dynamics in terms of net entry rates has a more dispersed effect across all industries, even though the effect of net entry is larger for high growth industries.