PORTFOLIO REBALANCING AND ASSET PRICING WITH HETEROGENEOUS INATTENTION

Can households' inattention to the stock market quantitatively account for the inertia in portfolio rebalancing? I address this question by introducing an observation cost into a production economy with heterogeneous agents. In this environment, inattention changes endogenously over time and across agents. I find that inattention explains the inertia in portfolio rebalancing and its heterogeneity across households. Inattention also rationalizes the limited stock market participation observed in the data and improves the asset pricing performance of the model. Finally, I present a novel testable implication linking the effects of inattention on portfolio choices and asset prices to households' funding liquidity.     

Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints*

We study the infinite‐horizon model of household portfolio choice under liquidity constraints and revisit the portfolio specialization puzzle. We show why the puzzle is robust to several model variations, and argue that positive correlation between earnings shocks and stock returns is unlikely to provide an empirically plausible resolution. We find that relatively small fixed costs for stock market entry are sufficient to deter stockholding because, for a plausible range of parameter values, households can achieve desired consumption smoothing with small or zero holdings of stocks. Such costs could arise from informational considerations, sign‐up fees, and investor inertia.     

Portfolio choice with internal habit formation: a life-cycle model with uninsurable labor income risk

Motivated by the success of internal habit formation preferences in explaining asset pricing puzzles, we introduce these preferences in a life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with liquidity constraints, undiversifiable labor income risk and stock-market participation costs. In contrast to the initial motivation, we find that the model is not able to simultaneously match two very important stylized facts: a low stock market participation rate, and moderate equity holdings for those households that do invest in stocks. Habit formation increases wealth accumulation because the intertemporal consumption smoothing motive is stronger. As a result, households start participating in the stock market very early in life, and invest their portfolios almost fully in stocks. Therefore, we conclude that, with respect to its ability to match the empirical evidence on asset allocation behavior, the internal habit formation model is dominated by its time-separable utility counterpart.     

Stackelberg equilibrium with many leaders and followers. The case of zero fixed costs

I study a version of the Stackelberg game with many identical firms in which leaders and followers use a continuous cost function with no fixed cost. Using lattice theoretical methods I provide a set of conditions that guarantee that the game has an equilibrium in pure strategies. With convex costs the model shows the same properties as a quasi-competitive Cournot model. The same happens with concave costs, but only when the number of followers is small. When this number is large the leaders preempt entry. I study the comparative statics and the limit behavior of the equilibrium and I show how the main determinants of market structure interact. More competition between the leaders always displaces the followers. Instead, how a stronger threat of entry affects the equilibrium depends on the technology. With strictly convex costs it is the followers that eventually displace the leaders.     

A simple model of emerging market portfolio structure

Many emerging market economies have experienced large buildups of foreign exchange rate reserves over the last decade. Much of the contemporary discussion of this phenomenon has focused on this reserve growth as the consequence of exchange rate policies which have maintained fixed pegs to the US dollar. By contrast, this paper focuses on emerging market reserve choice as a consequence of portfolio diversification, applied to the experience of Asian economies. While Asian economies have become significant gross creditors in bonds and other fixed income assets, their liability position in equity and FDI assets has also grown significantly. This suggests that a full understanding of the reserve growth episode must be seen as part of an overall model of portfolio choice. The paper constructs a model of the interaction between an emerging market and an advanced economy in which an optimal general equilibrium portfolio structure implies that emerging market economies simultaneously build up a stock of foreign exchange rate reserves while receiving FDI flows from the advanced economy. The model can provide a reasonable quantitative account of the recent Asian experience.     

ENTRY REGULATIONS,WELFARE, AND DETERMINANTS OF MARKET STRUCTURE

Welfare effects of entry regulations are theoretically ambiguous in differentiated product markets. We use a dynamic oligopoly model of entry and exit with store‐type differentiation and static price setting to evaluate how entry regulations affect long‐run profitability, market structure, and welfare. Based on unique data for all retail food stores in Sweden, we estimate demand, recover variable profits, and estimate entry costs and fixed costs by store type. Counterfactual policy experiments show that welfare increases when competition is enhanced by lower entry costs. Protecting small stores by imposing licensing fees on large stores is not welfare enhancing.     

投资理性、居民金融资产选择与储蓄大搬家

本文通过一个加入交易成本的两期资产选择模型,对目前城镇居民储蓄迅速搬家股市而农村居民几乎不持有风险资产这两种并存现象的巨大反差提供了一个较为合理的解释.研究发现当持有风险资产存在成本时,财富水平的高低和交易成本的大小是居民决定是否持有一定数量风险资产的重要因素.二元经济结构下的城乡收入差距显著,财富分布极不均等,交易成本的不对称是阻碍农村居民投资风险资产的主要原因.在众多影响风险资产持有水平的因素中,高风险升水所带来的财富效应主导了其它因素的影响.     

流动性、生命周期与投资组合相异性——中国投资者行为调查实证分析

本文采用Probit和Tobit模型对中国居民的股票市场参与和投资组合的影响因素进行了分析,主要有以下的实证发现:首先,不流动性资产特别是房地产的投资显著影响了投资者的股票市场参与和投资组合,而且影响以“替代”效应或者说“挤出”效应为主。其次,投资者在进行投资组合时极少利用股票市场对其未来现金流所承担的风险进行对冲,也就是说,中国居民投资的“生命周期效应”不明显;第三,中国居民投资的“财富效应”非常显著。财富的增加既增加了居民参与股票市场的概率,也增加了居民参与股票市场的深度。     

A STUDY OF PARTICIPATION IN DYNAMIC AUCTIONS

This article studies repeated entry and bidding decisions in construction procurement auctions. I find evidence in the data that suggests the presence of significant cost savings from entering contracts of the same type. I estimate a dynamic auction model to measure the gains to experience for bidders. I allow for endogenous entry, synergies in entry, and unobserved auction heterogeneity. I find that a bidder can halve entry costs by focusing on specific contract types. An auctioneer can increase competition by awarding contracts of the same type in sequence. As a result, procurement costs for each contract can be lowered by 7%, a saving of $110,000.     

社会互动、信任与股市参与

什么影响了居民的股市参与?采用2004年广东省居民调查数据,本文发现,社会互动和信任都推动了居民参与股市。股市低迷造成的普遍性股票投资损失会降低社会互动的积极作用,而社会互动对低学历居民参与股市的正面影响更为明显。此外,高收入、高学历、高年龄的居民股市参与也更积极。我们的研究为资本市场的发展架设了一个新的社会结构和社会特征的政策视角:加强社会互动、提高诚信水平,这些都是推动公众参与股市所不可忽略和或缺的。     

QUALITY CHOICE AND MARKET STRUCTURE: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF NURSING HOME OLIGOPOLIES

This article develops a dynamic model of entry and exit to analyze quality choice and oligopoly market structure in the nursing home industry. I find significant heterogeneity in the competitive effects across market structures: Firms of similar quality levels compete more strongly than dissimilar firms. Sunken entry costs are extremely large, and quality adjustment behavior is governed by significant fixed adjustment costs. A proposal to eliminate low‐quality nursing homes is found to cause a large supply‐side shortage, and another proposal to lower entry costs has offered a perverse incentive to provide low quality of care.     

Tradability and market penetration costs: Explaining foreign market servicing intensities

Industry level data shows striking differences among sectors in ratios of exports to FDI sales. We identify the elements behind the sectoral differences in the mode of foreign market servicing in the context of a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition. Our calibration exercise shows that traditional margins such as transportation, fixed entry costs, utility weights, and dispersion of firm productivity are not enough to capture the observed sectoral differences, as is commonly assumed. We propose augmenting the model to allow for sectoral differences in intangible costs of operating in a foreign market in order to explain these observations.     

行为金融视角下中国证券市场投资策略研究

本文根据我国证券投资基金发展的实际情况,运用代理关系下的有限套利模型和行为资产组合理论,建立面板数据模型,对影响我国基金投资收益的因素进行了实证研究。得出以下结论:代理关系和心理账户对证券投资基金的收益影响显著;对于基金的代理人——基金经理而言,建立有效的基金经理人信用评级制度有利于培养优秀的机构投资者,同时可促进我国证券市场的健康发展。     

国内市场分割与中国的出口贸易扩张

本文将国内市场分割和边际成本与固定成本之间的反向关系引入Melitz(2003)的模型,构建了一个开放经济模型。文章证明了国内市场分割导致不同生产技术的企业都首选进入国外市场。这似乎解释了中国出口贸易的强劲增长其实是严重的国内市场分割导致企业无法依托巨大的国内需求、发挥规模经济而被迫出口的扭曲现象。     

金融制度效率:交易费用经济学的诠释

在阿罗-德布鲁模型中,银行与证券市场是等价的。然而,现实中却存在银行与证券市场两种不同的金融制度。交易费用经济学对此的解释是正的交易费用现实及交易费用结构。两种金融制度效率的高低取决于金融功能发挥其作用所需的交易成本大小。各个国家之所以出现不同的金融制度结构,关键在于各国降低交易费用所依赖的路径不同。     

Long-run equity risk and dynamic trading strategies: a simulation exercise for the Italian stock market

The paper develops a simulation approach capable of reproducing the high frequency characteristics of Italian stock market prices, without assuming any specific form for their stochastic process. The approach is then used to verify the capability of dynamic trading strategies to protect against downside risk in the long run. Because a fully funded capitalized retirement system will develop in Italy in the near future, dynamic trading strategies might become a widely used tool among Italian portfolio managers to hedge long-run equity risk, especially in view of the poor risk –return trade off that the stock market has historically provided. Both option replicating strategies and constant proportion strategies are simulated. The impact of transaction costs, non stationary return variances, alternative portfolio rebalancing schemes and various implementation constraints on the strategies cost are examined. For the option replicating strategies,ex posteffective costs turn out to be close toex antetheoretical expected cost. The crucial element in the strategy appears the decisions about the length of the option strategy and the rule to reset the floor at the end of it. Constant proportion strategies are cheaper and easier to implement, but their effectiveness depends too on the way in which the floor is adjusted as a function of the stock price movements. Broadly speaking, the simulations confirm that dynamic strategies are capable of delivering what they are supposed to achieve. All types of strategies are relatively straightforward and can be used with an acceptable margin of uncertainty.     

Housing Subsidies and Work Incentives in Great Britain

The relationship between housing costs, wages and transfer programmes is complex yet helps determine the incentive to work for individuals in low income or high housing cost households. We estimate a static discrete choice labour supply model that allows for housing benefit programme participation, using samples of married women and unmarried women drawn from Great Britain Family Resources Surveys 1994/5–97/8. We find women are quite responsive to labour supply incentives and that housing benefit income has similar incentive effects to earned income which suggests any 'stigma' is small. Our analysis is complemented by simulating housing benefit and direct rent subsidy reforms.     

INCENTIVES AND THE COST OF FIRING IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LABOR MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LAYOFFS*

I study the effects of firing costs in an equilibrium model of the labor market with moral hazard. Layoff is an incentive device, modeled as termination of the optimal long‐term contract. When the economy’s stock of firms is fixed, firing costs could reduce layoffs and increase worker welfare. In the long run when firms are free to enter and exit the market, firing costs generate not only lower employment, longer unemployment durations, and lower aggregate output, but also lower welfare for both employed workers and new labor market entrants.     

The Equity of Alternative Policies for the Australian Homeowner*

The income-tax treatment of homeowners and renters is an important instrument of national housing policy. Major changes in the treatment of homeowners occurred in 1975 and 1976; the second change focused especially on the problems of first-buyers and was coincident with an expanded home-savings grant scheme. As a further reform several writers have advocated the taxation of the rent imputed to homeowners. This paper develops a user cost of capital approach to estimate the distribution of housing costs along the income scale and between policy alternatives. The model indicates the vital importance of accounting for inflation whenever physical housing costs are inflating but mortgage costs are fixed in nominal terms. Although inflation is increasing housing costs at all income levels, high-income homeowners appear to be suffering the greatest cost increases as the result of inflation. Furthermore, unless mortgages are indexed, the customary imputed-rent formula is regressive.     

HOUSEWORK: PRICELESS OR VALUELESS?

Two ways of estimating the value of housework are currently used. One is the opportunity cost approach, which sets the value of work done at home equal to the income the person could earn in the labor market. The other is the market cost approach, which uses the cost of hiring someone to do the housework to determine its value. In this study we use data on earnings of female clerical workers with various patterns of labor force participation to obtain estimates of the opportunity cost of hometime for such women. We find that potential market earnings do not provide an acceptable estimate of the value of housework, and suggest that using the wages of general household workers is a better approach.