Retirement and social security: the roles of self-fulfilling expectations and educational investments

Countries with higher implicit taxes on continued work are associated with lower labor force participation rates of the elderly. This paper constructs a politico-economic model that accounts for this feature based on multiple, self-fulfilling expectations of agents. In this model, agents are identical at birth and can become skilled (or remain unskilled) through educational investment. When agents hold expectations of larger social security benefits, it provides a disincentive to engage in educational investment, thereby resulting in an unskilled majority. In turn, this unskilled majority supports larger social security benefits, which induces the retirement of the elderly and thus results in a lower labor force participation rate. The opposite applies when agents have expectations of smaller social security benefits in their old age.     

A Reduction in Social Security Contributions: Which Alternatives for Financing Coverage?

This paper uses the INTIMO model of the Italian economy to analyze the economic impacts of a reduction in social security contributions. This manoeuvre is intended to reduce the tax wedge on labour cost. There is a wide choice of ways to neutralize the revenue effects of a lower tax yield, because several of the existing taxes could be increased and new ones could be introduced. In this study, alternative financing coverages are developed and applied in the model. The results of the study show that substituting different taxes for social security contributions affects the cost of production, and impacts vary with industries. A reduction in contributions compensated for by an increase in value-added tax produces the best results in terms of short-term economic indicators, but the improvement in environmental conditions—not analyzed in this study—achieved by energy taxes could be a very important target and could justify the recourse to this tool.     

Tax enforcement policies,tax evasion and time allocation

Several studies examine the effect of tax rates on households’ labor supply decisions in attempts to account for observed differences in work hours across countries. Interestingly, these studies fail to consider a fundamental action associated with taxation: tax evasion. This paper introduces, into a general equilibrium model of household labor supply, the possibility that households can evade labor income taxes. We show that the relationship between tax-enforcement policies, the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure and the elasticity of substitution between formal and informal work is key to explain formal labor supply in major OECD countries. In a model without informal work, there is a positive relationship between the elasticity of substitution and the tax rate on formal income and people tend to work more. This is the case for the United States, Greece, Finland and the United Kingdom. This relationship becomes negative once informal activities are introduced and the model can explain formal labor supply better in countries where agents work relative less, i.e., in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Norway and Sweden. We also obtain estimates of hours worked in the informal sector for these countries.     

Tax policy and returns to education

This paper considers how asymmetric tax treatment, where labour market earnings are taxed but household production is untaxed, affects educational choice and labour supply. We show that taxes on labour market earnings can generate a large (non-marginal) switch to home production and the ensuing deadweight losses are large. Using a cross-country panel, we find that gender differences in labour supply responses to tax policy can explain differences in aggregate labour supply and years of education across countries.     

Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems

This paper is an empirical study of effects of central city problems on population and employment suburbanization. It is widely believed that high crime, high taxes, and large minority groups in central cities are important causes of rapid suburbanization of U.S. metropolitan areas. A large set of density functions is estimated for population and employment in U.S. metropolitan areas in 1960 and 1970. Thus, relative central city and suburban measures of crime, taxes, etc., are used in an interactive model to explain population and employment suburbanization. It is found that only racial minorities have an effect on suburbanization.     

An Institutional Configurational Approach to Cross‐National Diversity in Corporate Governance

Corporate governance (CG) research has typically been studied from rather disparate disciplinary approaches, thereby offering myopic and often conflicting rationales. We develop an institutional configurational approach to integrate this ‘siloed’ field and explain CG patterns around the world. To do so, we draw on an inductive, theory‐building methodology based on fuzzy‐set logic to uncover the configurations across institutional actor‐centred domains and their impact on CG patterns. Empirically, we explore the necessary and sufficient causal conditions leading to different features of codes of good governance across 32 OECD countries. We generate propositions linking configurational institutional domains to code features. Our results show that a single institutional domain by itself is not sufficient to explain CG outcomes, and that these domains need to be considered in conjunction, leading, in turn, to the identification of four distinct configurational governance prototypes. Our study offers a comprehensive account of drivers of cross‐national differences in CG and yields useful insights for managing and regulating governance.     

Distortionary Taxation and Labour Market Performance

Quarterly estimates of consumption, capital and labour tax rates are provided for six major OECD countries. We then use the 'stylized facts' methodology to evaluate the strength, sign and phase of cyclical comovements between tax rates and labour market variables. Labour taxes distort labour market de-cisions and help explain why the unemployment rate is so high in continental Europe. However, labour taxes cannot be the only determinant of diverging unemployment rates since the labour force is also reduced by higher taxes. Finally, we offer some preliminary structural evidence showing employment growth in particular to be negatively related to the taxation of labour.     

Heterogeneity and long-run changes in aggregate hours and the labor wedge

From 1961 to 2007, U.S. aggregate hours worked increased and the labor wedge—measured as the discrepancy between a representative household׳s marginal rate of substitution and the marginal product of labor—declined substantially. The labor wedge is negatively related to hours and is often attributed to labor income taxes. However, U.S. labor income taxes increased since 1961. We examine a model with gender and marital status heterogeneity which accounts for the trends in the U.S. hours and the labor wedge. Apart from taxes, the model׳s labor wedge reflects non-distortionary cross-sectional differences in households׳ hours worked and productivity. We provide evidence that household heterogeneity is important for long-run changes in labor wedges and hours in other OECD economies.     

Finite lifetimes,long-term debt and the fiscal limit

The U.S. faces exponentially rising entitlement obligations. I introduce a fiscal limit—a point where higher taxes are no longer a feasible financing mechanism—into a Perpetual Youth model to examine how intergenerational redistributions of wealth, the average duration of government debt, and entitlement reform impact the consequences of explosive government transfers. Three key findings emerge: (1) Growing government transfers cause more severe and more persistent stagflation than in representative agent models that do not capture intergenerational transfers of wealth; (2) A longer average duration of government debt pushes the financing of government liabilities into the future and reduces the short-run impacts of explosive transfers; (3) The time it takes the economy to rebound from a period of growing transfers increases exponentially with the number of years it takes to pass entitlement reform.     

我国开征社会保障税的合理性分析

我国开征社会保障税的必要性包括：社会保障税可以有效解决我国社会保障筹资总量不足且保障水平低的问题;可以有效应对人口老龄化高峰给社会保障带来的巨大压力;建设现代公共财政及营造消费环境拉动经济增长的要求等。社会主义税收本质、国民对社会保障重要性的认识、现有的税收征管机构设置的管理能力,以及国外的社保税征收经验,都决定了我国开征社会保障税的可行性。     

EDITORIAL: TAX REFORM AND SIMPLIFICATION

Major tax reform to simplify the UK tax system is possible. Merging income taxes, social security taxes and corporation tax into only a single flat-rate of tax on all incomes would be a radical start. Avoiding taxes on income and expenditure which are 'too high' requires major reductions in government spending, mainly on the welfare state. Given the political will, over a period of years we really can hugely improve the UK tax system.     

Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies

In a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we develop a two-dimensional energy balance climate model featuring heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing driven by global fossil fuel use across the sphere of the Earth. This introduces an endogenous location dependent temperature function, driving spatial characteristics, in terms of location dependent damages resulting from local temperature anomalies into the standard climate-economy framework. We solve the social planner's problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium for two polar cases differentiated by the degree of market integration. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuel use and how they may implement the planning solution. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-homogeneous and may be lower at poorer latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depends on heat transportation. By employing the properties of the spatial model, we show by numerical simulations how the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare can be studied.     

Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits

This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances welfare by reducing long run debt. In an economy calibrated to a generic OECD country, the maximum attainable welfare gain of debt consolidation, which is induced by imposing the optimally parameterized constraint, amounts to 0.5% in terms of consumption. The short run welfare costs of the constraint, which arise from restricting the use of debt to smooth taxes, are quantitatively negligible.     

Social capital and well-being in the Italian provinces

Recent years witnessed a growing interest in the concept of well-being and quality of life, as alternative to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The determinants of well-being, especially at the regional and provincial levels, is understudied in a macro perspective, as opposed to a micro perspective (individuals, survey data) that has been the dominant approach until recently. In this paper, we estimate an empirical model for the Italian NUTS-3 provinces to evaluate the role of social capital on well-being by using aggregated (provincial) data. Our findings suggest that social capital, social security programs, income, and grant-making activities by Bank Foundations, even though not uniformly distributed across Italy, positively affect well-being, thus contributing to explain the persistent dualism that characterizes the Italian economy.     

Temporary layoffs and split population models

This paper develops and estimates a split population model for the duration of temporary layoffs in the German labour market; the population being split according to whether a layoff is temporary or permanent. A flexible piecewise constant hazard is employed and the recall propensity is used to condition the duration of a temporary layoff. The distinction between factors that influence the recall propensity and factors that influence the duration of a temporary layoff is shown to be of empirical significance. The results of the paper are used to evaluate implicit contract and search theories of temporary layoffs. The paper suggests that implicit contracts can explain the behaviour of unemployed workers with high worker–firm attachment whilst search can explain the behaviour of workers with low worker–firm attachment. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social security and cross-country differences in hours: A general equilibrium analysis

I develop a general equilibrium life cycle model with an intensive and extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation. I use the model to assess the effects of changes to various features of social security on labor supply outcomes. Of particular interest are changes to the scale of the program and to the relevant eligibility rules. I find that the cross-country differences in social security programs account for at least 79% of the differences in employment rates of people aged 55–64 and 17–31% of the differences in aggregate hours worked between the US and continental Europe.     

Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by differences in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. Using comparable individual-level labour supply estimates, we simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. The estimation results for the two countries are quite similar, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical in the two countries. The simulation results show that about one-third of the difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 year-old population and more than two-thirds of the participation of the prime-age population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.     

浅议如何确定社会保障税的最优税率

社会保障制度是我国社会主义福利事业的一个重要组成部分。它不仅作为维持劳动力再生产的物质保证而构成促进社会再生产顺利进行的重要手段,而且是社会稳定机制的一个重要组成部分。目前已有140多个国家和地区建立了社会保障制度,其中有80多个国家和地区开征了社会保障税或类似税种。文中对我国如何确定社会保障税的最优税率进行了简单的分析。