金砖国家多边经济合作的新趋势

"金砖国家"正在推动改革世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构,倡导多边主义和国际关系民主化,维护发展中国家的权益。在建立国际经济新秩序过程中,"金砖国家"致力于创立多元化和更加稳定的国际货币体系,"金砖国家"对促进发展和世界经济复苏做出了贡献。"金砖国家"将在保持世界经济稳定方面发挥更重要的作用。     

The Demand for Crop Genetic Resources: International Use of the US National Plant Germplasm System

In contrast to a perception that ex situ collections of germplasm are rarely used, this empirical case study reveals large numbers of germplasm samples distributed by the US National Germplasm System to many types of scientific institutions located in numerous countries around the world. Germplasm distributions outside the United States favor developing over developed countries in several ways, including the numbers of samples shipped, utilization rates in crop breeding programs, and the secondary benefits brought about through sharing this germplasm with other scientists. Expected future demand is also greater among scientists in developing countries. These findings underscore the importance to global science and technology of retaining such resources in the public domain.     

新冠肺炎疫情与全球治理变革

新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来迅速演变为一场全球公共卫生危机,不仅对人类生命安全和身体健康产生了巨大威胁,也使经济全球化受到重创,在全球多领域产生了全方位链式影响,凸显了全球治理的紧迫性和重要性。然而,现有全球治理体系在应对此次疫情过程中反应迟缓、部分失灵、治理成效有限。国际组织、国际机构、国际机制等应对不足、效果不彰。大国领导、大国协调与合作难度加大,未能体现领导作用。各国需要反思如何来加强全球治理体系改革,以更好地确保人类公共卫生安全。各国还需维护和稳定当前的世界秩序,在公共卫生领域形成一个人类卫生健康共同体。要树立人类命运共同体理念,强化对国际治理制度的更新、补充和替代,加大大国协调与合作力度,加强对世界卫生组织的赋权和赋能,提升其权威性和行动力,强化二十国集团等机制和制度建设,增补新的制度安排,在全球层面结成理念共同体、制度共同体、政策共同体、行动共同体和责任共同体。只有这样,各国才能共同应对未来人类所面临的公共卫生挑战,确保人类的生命安全和共同发展繁荣。     

Can soft power help the IMF make the world more stable?

In an integrated world, one of the more intractable problems we have to deal with is how to ensure all countries undertake macroeconomic policies that are in the global interest even when these go against short-term domestic political compulsions. It is unlikely that countries will sign up to a common set of policy rules, nor is it probable that peer pressure alone will convince countries to co-operate. This paper argues that multilateral institutions have to do more to sell the global policy consensus to the influential public in each country, so that leaders are pushed by domestic constituencies to internalize the global good. Rather than solely a top down process of global policy-making, where grand summits make little progress, we also need a bottom up approach, where the summiteers will feel the pressure for global deals from their primary domestic constituencies.     

The `Latte Revolution'? Regulation,Markets and Consumption in the Global Coffee Chain

Coffee is a truly global commodity and a major foreign exchange earner in many developing countries. The global coffee chain has changed dramatically as a result of deregulation, new consumption patterns, and evolving corporate strategies. From a balanced contest between producing and consuming countries within the politics of international coffee agreements, power relations shifted to the advantage of transnational corporations. A relatively stable institutional environment where proportions of generated income were fairly distributed between producing and consuming countries turned into one that is more informal, unstable, and unequal. Through the lenses of global commodity chain analysis, this paper examines how these transformations affect developing countries and what policy instruments are available to address the emerging imbalances.     

Free trade and income redistribution in some developing and newly industrialized countries

A competitive general equilibrium model of production is specified and the long-run comparative static elasticities of changing prices on factor prices are examined in eight developing and newly industrialized countries. Unskilled labor in these developing countries stands to gain from a program of global free trade characterized by increased manufacturing exports and falling prices of imported business services, while capital owners and skilled labor lose. Results are contrasted with developed countries, the United States in particular, where unskilled labor will lose while capital and skilled labor enjoy gains with global free trade.     

A double-edged sword: the impact of institutions and political relations on the international market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This study examines the interaction of three factors, the involvement of the home country government, of host country institutions and of bilateral political relations, as they affect the post-entry market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in emerging, developing and developed countries. This study employs the case study method. The findings show that home country government involvement can either support or constrain SOEs’ subsequent market expansion. In emerging and developing countries, underdeveloped institutions create difficulties which can deter the market expansion of Chinese SOEs. In developed host countries, the challenges associated with unfamiliar institutions can be overcome through experiential learning. The political relations between the host country and China may influence the impact of institutions in the host country on the market expansion of Chinese SOEs.     

Urban water security in Africa: The face of climate and development challenges

ABSTRACT

Resilience has been promoted as an important objective for the global development community, in part, as a response to concern about the potential impacts of climate change and related risks. A review of the challenges of achieving water security in urban areas of developing countries suggests that a specific focus on resilience may distract communities from more effective interventions. It would be more useful to support relevant institutions to address current service delivery priorities. This will better enable them to manage future climate change and the challenges that this may bring.     

Institutions and participation in global value chains: Evidence from belt and road initiative

The “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative proposed by China aims to promote highly efficient resource allocation, deep regional integration, and extension of global value chains (GVCs). The main challenges faced by OBOR include large variations in regional institutions and a high degree of political instability among OBOR countries. This paper examines the linkage between regional institutions and GVC participation. First, we show that OBOR countries have much weaker institutions and less GVC participation than non-OBOR countries. Second, we find that institutions play important roles in GVC participation in both OBOR and non-OBOR countries. Improved regulatory quality, political stability, government effectiveness, and rule of law can significantly promote GVC participation in institutionally sensitive industries. Finally, a firm-level analysis that is based on the World Bank's Enterprise Survey Data indicates that better quality local institutions encourage firms to participate in GVCs.     

Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been important in the growth and global integration of developing economies. Both Northeast and Southeast Asia, especially the latter, have been part of this development, with increasing inflows of FDI and greater foreign participation in local economies. However, Indonesia has been an outlier within the region. Inflows of FDI have been lower to Indonesia than to other countries, especially in manufacturing, and they have been lower than could be expected from Indonesia's size, population and other country characteristics. We show that the inflows that have occurred have benefited Indonesia, and use the East Asian experience to identify measures that are likely to increase these flows. A relatively poor business environment, inefficient government institutions, low levels of education and poor infrastructure all seem to be important explanations for the low inflows of FDI to Indonesia.     

Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices

This paper argues that, in analyzing the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing and transition countries in the present global economic context, it is essential to distinguish between those countries with substantial involvement in international financial markets and those where involvement is limited. For developing countries with important linkages to modern global capital markets, an important lesson of the recent crises in emerging market countries is that the requirements for sustaining pegged exchange rate regimes have become significantly more demanding. For many emerging market countries, therefore, regimes that allow substantial actual exchange rate flexibility are probably desirable. If supported by the requisite policy discipline and institutional structures, however, hard currency pegs may also be appropriate for some of these countries. Beyond the emerging markets countries, for many developing countries with less linkage to global capital markets, traditionalexchange rate pegs and intermediate regimes are more viable and retain important advantages. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2001, 15(1), pp. 68–101. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 20431. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F31, F33, F41.     

Does financial development help to align growth opportunities with growth? Evidence from industry-level data

Financial institutions are expected to play a crucial role in reallocating resources in favor of industries facing greater global and local shocks to growth opportunities. Fisman and Love, in their paper entitled “Financial development and intersectoral allocation: A new approach”, argue that growth opportunities are unobservable and propose a new methodology to test the capital allocation hypothesis. The methodology is based on correlations in the patterns of intra-industry growth between two countries and similarities in the level of financial development and income. This paper extends their methodology by proposing direct and forward-looking measures of local and global growth opportunities, obtained by interacting the country’s patterns of industrial specialization with industry-level price-earnings ratios, as in the paper “Global growth opportunities and market integration” by Bekaert et al. The results, obtained in a cross-section framework including 37 developed and developing countries over the period 1992–2006, confirm the relevance of financial development to promote economic growth and to help industries in taking advantage of global and local growth opportunities. They also show that the methodology developed by Fisman and Love can be extended to include direct measures of growth opportunities.     

Roles of Formal Institutions and Social Capital in Innovation Activities: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the roles of formal institutions and social capital in countries’ innovation activities. The sample consists of 62 developed and developing countries, using the ordinary least squares robust standard error estimations, instrumental variable (IV) estimators, and quantile regression. The empirical results indicate that formal institutions and social capital complement one another in influencing countries’ innovations level. In terms of the relative importance of both in promoting innovation activities, the social capital has greater role compared to formal institutions. Furthermore, the empirical result suggests that innovation level tends to be higher in countries with higher social capital. We also use the quantile regression to estimate whether the relationship among formal institutions, social capital, and innovation differs at different points in the conditional distribution of innovation. The results demonstrate that formal institutions yield a significant positive impact only after exceeding in 50th quantile, whereas social capital do so at lower 10th quantile. Therefore, in addition to a policy focus on improving the formal institutions, countries with a low level of innovation should enrich social capital in their promotion of innovation activity.     

Old,not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

Does population aging in developing countries, which undermines their traditional export advantages, prevent them upgrading export? Using the method of instrument variables, this paper empirically shows that population aging significantly and adversely affects export upgrading in developing countries. Moreover, the negative impact of population aging is mainly channeled through innovation and human capital. Furthermore, the negative impact of population aging on export upgrading is not present in developed countries and is decreasing in recent years of developing countries. This is possibly due to the inferior institutions and slow adoption of automation in developing countries. Lastly, this paper extends the analysis to a disaggregated level, where the results suggest that an aging country indeed exports less of the products with higher quality.     

WHO DEVELOPS INNOVATIONS IN MEDICINE FOR THE POOR? TRENDS IN PATENT APPLICATIONS RELATED TO MEDICINES FOR HIV/AIDS,TUBERCULOSIS, MALARIA,AND NEGLECTED DISEASES

This paper analyzes patent data of medicines and vaccines for diseases spreading in low‐income countries. The data were retrieved from a database of the Japan Patent Office. Who invents medicines for the poor of the world? This is the main question that the paper addresses. Results indicate that not only public institutions but also private firms have played an important role in developing innovations for fighting both global diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, and so‐called neglected diseases including malaria, which seem to spread almost exclusively in low‐income countries. Moreover, the basic mechanism of innovation is similar between the development of medicines for HIV/AIDS and those for neglected diseases. Finally, among firms, infectious disease fighting innovations are quite diverse. R&D stock and economies of scope are used to explain frequent patent applications by a high‐performing pharmaceutical firm.     

全球排放贸易体系:一个幻想?

目前存在一种流行的观点认为,未来应该建立一个全球范围的碳排放交易体系。本文质疑该观点,提出:1)全球排放交易体系的福利效果并不确定,可能主要能够降低的是发达国家的减排成本,对于发展中国家而言更可能造成福利下降的后果;2)各国参与全球公共物品的提供,应该根据共同但有区别责任的原则致力于形成"林达尔均衡",而不是全球排放贸易体系所代表的"瓦尔拉斯均衡";3)推动全球排放贸易体系的动力在于发达国家产业集团对规制的偏好和利益,而发达国家优先采取排放交易政策,主要是出于国内及国际政治考虑,而非因为全球福利最大化;4)发展中国家在考虑国内气候政策时面临选择的困境,需要谨慎考虑。     

Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?

We estimate the impact of global merchandise trade distortions and services regulations on agricultural value added in various countries. Using the latest versions of the GTAP database and the GTAP-AGR model of the global economy, our results suggest real net farm incomes would rise in developing countries with a move to free trade, thereby alleviating rural poverty—despite a terms of trade deterioration for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. We also show, for several large developing countries, the contribution of their own versus other countries’ trade policies. JEL no. C68, D58, F17, Q17     

Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry

This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment “surges” and “stops”, defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers-and-acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the factor significantly and positively associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while a global economic growth slowdown and a surge in the preceding year are the main factors associated with a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income countries and mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges are less likely in resource-rich countries than elsewhere in the developing world. Global growth accelerations and increases in financial openness, domestic economic and financial instability are associated with mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges but not with greenfield-led ones. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries where FDI flows are the major type of capital flows and suggest that developing countries’ macroeconomic vulnerability increases following periods of increased global liquidity. As countries develop they typically become more exposed to merger-and-acquisition-led surges, which are more likely than greenfield-led surges and stops to be short-lived and associated with domestic macroeconomic policies.     

What factors influence the quality of governance institutions? An Asian perspective

This paper focuses on the process by which the quality of institutions has changed in developing Asia. It is argued that much institutional change is the result of a slow, piecemeal, evolutionary process that is often set in motion via changes in economic policy. Specifically, the quality of particular governance institutions is often dependent on economic policy. Various measures of governance institutional quality, for eleven developing countries in Asia, constructed by the World Bank are used to empirically test the hypothesis. The results of the estimations indicate that policies related to enhancing agricultural labor productivity, reducing dependence on natural resources, and increasing school enrollments have been most important in terms of positively influencing the quality of governance institutions developing Asia.     

Commercial bank lending to developing countries: Supply constraints

Middle-income developing countries rely heavily on commercial bank borrowing for the bulk of their financing requirements, but borrowing from this source cannot be projected with confidence. Privately owned financial institutions are subject to a number of capital and regulatory constraints which can adversely affect (will heavily influence) the level and direction of future lending to developing countries. Moreover, the volatility and short-term character of commercial bank lending suggests an urgent need to reduce the role of commercial banks in recycling the OECD and OPEC surplus, and to create new mechanisms designed to ensure more stable and longer term sources of capital to developing countries.