山东半岛蓝色经济区旅游联动开发模式研究

区域旅游联动开发本质上是区域合作的一种方式,是避免同质旅游地恶性厮杀的必由之路。山东半岛蓝色经济区规划已上升为国家战略,此背景下,在对山东半岛蓝色经济区七城市旅游经济联系强度与旅游业发展水平分析的基础上,针对七城市区域旅游联动开发的优势条件,提出亚圈层多边联动、区域定位的地域分工两大联动开发模式。     

青岛市发展半岛蓝色经济区的思考

蓝色经济区,是以发达的海洋、涉海、临港产业为基础,以科学利用海洋资源与可持续发展为前提,以先进科技和优势产业为特色,经济、文化、社会、生态协调发展,具有较强竞争力的功能区。蓝色经济是陆海统筹、相关产业协调发展的新型经济,逐步成为国民经济发展新的增长点。青岛是山东半岛中心城市。半岛蓝色经济区发展战略的提出不仅为山东省跨越发展指明了新方向？也必将对青岛市的未来发展产生重大而深远的影响。本文结合青岛市半岛蓝色经济区发展现状,参考国内的一些研究成果,分析青岛市发展半岛蓝色经济区的优势与挑战,提出对我市发展半岛蓝色经济区的有关建议。     

山东半岛蓝色经济区城市群空间联系定量研究

以山东半岛蓝色经济区内的7个地级市为研究区域,运用城市流强度模型和城市间相互作用强度模型,对蓝色经济区内的城市辐射能力和内在经济联系进行了测度和分析。结果表明:1城市群整体辐射能力不强,核心城市中心地位不突出,中低城市流强度城市占多数。2区内第二产业辐射较强,呈现高集聚态势;第三产业辐射能力较弱,空间分布较为分散。3区内各城市地域分散,经济关联性不强。为了促进蓝色经济区城市群的协调发展,有必要提升核心城市的带动作用,提高第三产业集聚发展水平,加强基础设施建设以及加快构建一体化的市场体系。     

青岛市发展半岛蓝色经济区的思考

蓝色经济区,是以发达的海洋、涉海、临港产业为基础,以科学利用海洋资源与可持续发展为前提,以先进科技和优势产业为特色,经济、文化、社会、生态协调发展,具有较强竞争力的功能区.蓝色经济是陆海统筹、相关产业协调发展的新型经济,逐步成为国民经济发展新的增长点.青岛是山东半岛中心城市.半岛蓝色经济区发展战略的提出不仅为山东省跨越发展指明了新方向;也必将对青岛市的未来发展产生重大而深远的影响.本文结合青岛市半岛蓝色经济区发展现状,参考国内的一些研究成果,分析青岛市发展半岛蓝色经济区的优势与挑战,提出对我市发展半岛蓝色经济区的有关建议.     

山东半岛蓝色经济区产业结构演进的科技驱动效应分析

基于科技发展水平是蓝色经济区产业结构演进核心要素的客观现实。首先对科技水平驱动产业结构演进的机制进行分析，进而利用协整分析和误差修正模型对山东半岛蓝色经济区产业结构演进的科技驱动效应进行了实证分析．得出结论：科技水平对于山东半岛蓝色经济区产业结构演进在长期和短期均具有显著的驱动效应：在此基础上．利用状态空间模型对驱动效...     

基于灰色系统理论的海洋主导新兴产业选择研究——以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例

利用灰色系统理论,以山东半岛蓝色经济区为研究对象,构建海洋主导新兴产业评价体系,选择该区域的海洋主导新兴产业.结果表明:山东半岛蓝色经济区的海洋主导新兴产业应该选取属于海洋第二产业的海洋生物医药业和海水利用业;而现代海洋渔业(海洋第一产业)和海洋油气业(海洋第二产业)具有发展为海洋主导新兴产业的潜力和实力,属于优势产业;归为一般产业的滨海旅游业(海洋第三产业)和海洋电力业(海洋第二产业)则有待继续发展.在制定科学的政策体系、构建海洋产业集聚区、注重基础研究和应用型人才培养、加强海洋生态环保意识等方面做出符合蓝色经济区发展的战略抉择,提升海洋主导新兴产业发展水平,带动关联产业进步,促进蓝色经济区海洋经济乃至区域经济发展.     

城市科技竞争力的生态位评价研究

借助生态位理论与方法,在明确城市科技竞争力生态位内涵的基础上,构建了一套含3个维度、8个模块以及26个指标的城市科技竞争力评价指标体系,并对浙江省11个地级市科技竞争力生态位进行了计算,根据结果分析了各个城市科技竞争力生态位的地区差异、空间竞争关系和发展态势,〖JP〗明确了浙江各市科技竞争力的优势、劣势和发展格局,为调整全省科技发展空间布局和战略规划提供了相关参考及启示。     

基于生态位测评的区域旅游城市空间格局研究

旅游空间格局研究以主要旅游城市为依托,运用生态住测评理论,构建了河北省主要旅游城市生态位测评指标体系.结合聚类分析,从双核心城市、节点城市、网络城市的空间角度构建出河北省区域旅游城市的双扇形空间格局,有利于河北省区域旅游城市综合竞争力的提升.     

山东半岛蓝色经济与蓝色金融冲突的理论初探

本文在对山东半岛蓝色经济与蓝色金融现状概述的基础上,力图剖析蓝色产业发展与蓝色金融在数量、成本、时间、种类、空间及风险上的诸多冲突,为更好、更快推动沿海地区与内陆腹地一体化发展,推动山东半岛蓝色经济区又好又快发展,实施海洋强国战略和推动全国区域协调发展提供可供借鉴的理论建议和思路。     

浅议“蓝黄”经济区建设对山东省现代农业发展的驱动作用

黄河三角洲高效生态经济区和山东半岛蓝色经济区建设,促进了资源要素向农业的集聚,优化了农业产业结构,保障了食物安全,提高了农业综合发展水平和竞争力,有利于农业资源的高效利用和农业生态环境的进一步改善,对山东省现代农业发展产生着巨大的驱动作用。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.