机关事业单位养老保险制度的人性化选择

伴随着城镇企业养老保险制度的逐渐完善,建立机关事业单位养老保险制度无疑是目前社会养老保险工作中最棘手的难题。由于过去城镇内部养老保险“二元化”特征导致现阶段对机关事业单位试点和改革存在诸多的分歧,试图在过去改革试点和城镇养老保险改革的经验基础上,以最终建立全国统一的社会保障制度为目标,力图最小化转制成本,对机关事业单位养老保险制度建立的原则和框架问题做一些探索。     

中国统筹养老金适度调整指数分析

作为公共养老金制度的一部分,养老金调整指数适度与否会对养老金计划和经济发展产生重要影响。文章以卡尔多—希克斯补偿标准为适度调整指数的理论标准,以穆怀中提出的内部效率和外部效率理论为检验依据,通过目标定位、计量分析和精算预测得出结论为:对“老人”保障由统筹养老金提供的食品相对消费水平不降低,对“新人”仅保障基础养老金绝对购买力水平不降低的最低调整指数方案,是中国现行养老金计划的适度调整指数方案。     

Financial market lobbies and pension reform

We develop a model in which firms in the financial market lobby the government to lower compulsory contributions to the public pension system. Firms lobby in order to increase demand from households for their old-age savings products. We conclude with a comparison of two major pension reforms in Europe exemplifying the influence of financial market lobbies on pension policies.     

Expectations,uncertainty and institutions. An application to the analysis of social security reforms

The aging process that many developed economies will face in the medium-term is leading to reforms in the public pensions systems in order to solve the potential financial unsustainability generated by the foreseeable increase in the expenditure in pension benefits (assuming that the current social security contributions and the eligibility conditions will remain unchanged). Neoclassical economics defends a radical reform of these systems, substituting the current pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) systems by funded systems. In this paper, using the Post-Keynesian theory as a theoretical framework, we provide an alternative reflection to that proposed by the neoclassical economics about the choice between the alternative pension systems. The focus of the paper is the advantages of the PAYGO pension systems to stabilize the expectations of future income.     

An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test

The Australian age pension is somewhat unusual among developed countries in that it is means tested against both the claimant’s income and assets. While means testing of age pensions facilitates the aims of directing public pensions to those senior individuals most in need and of containing pension expenditures by governments, it also has the effect of changing the incentives of individuals to work and save. This paper examines the implications of the Australian means tested age pension for incentives of individuals to save and work, for government financial commitments and for the welfare of individuals. To this end, we develop an overlapping generations model of the Australian economy that incorporates the essential features of the Australian pension, superannuation and taxation policy settings and use it to explore the implications of several hypothetical policy changes that relax the means test of the age pension. Our results confirm that the existing means-tested, age pension represents a disincentive for some older Australians to work.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

基于公共清算所的个人账户养老基金管理模式研究

在分析个人账户基金管理的委托人职责缺失、管理效率低下、基金保值增值难等问题的基础上.通过对个人账户管理模式和投资决策模式的分析,以及结合产权理论与委托代理理论,构建一种新的个人账户基金管理模式,即公私结合管理模式——中央层面成立公共清算机构负责基金管理,在旗下成立多家个人账户基金投资公司,负责个人账户基金的投资运营.这对养老基金的保值增值以及养老金制度的可持续发展都具有深远意义.     

德国公共养老金调整指数改革研究

1957年德国首先建立了基于总工资指数的养老金调整指数,该指数运行34年后,面对人口老龄化的加剧,进行了多次改革。其改革的根本原因在于:基于养老金指数化调整的公共养老金计划缴税率不断攀升及由此对市场效率产生了严重负面影响。一个国家选择何种养老金调整指数取决于本国国情、经济发展状况等因素,但不能忽视调整指数对市场效率的影响,应坚持"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则。作为发展中国家,中国在设计养老金调整指数时,坚持这一原则更为重要。     

A new proposal of pension regimes typology: empirical analysis of the OECD countries

In the paper, we present a new typology of pension regimes based on two main dimensions: the extent of involvement of the state and the market, and the role of voluntary schemes. We propose three theoretical pension regimes. The study proves that our theoretical typology is also consistent with empirical pension systems in OECD countries. In order to group them into the similar pension models, we employ multivariate statistical analysis. As a result of our empirical research, the regimes distinguished in the theoretical framework have found their counterparts in the clusters of real pension systems operating in 30 countries.     

Political Effects on Pension Underfunding

Pension underfunding in the public sector has received considerable attention recently and is often cited as the next looming crisis. The majority of recent research has focused on appropriately measuring the underfunding. In this paper, we employ a political economy framework to show that increases in partisan polarization and electoral uncertainty lead to greater underfunding. Using an unbalanced panel of individual pension plans, we find robust empirical evidence that higher legislative turnover rates, more electoral competition, and term limits all lead to more pension underfunding. The political environments of state and local governments play a pivotal role in pension underfunding.     

Pension Reforms: An Illustrated Basic Analysis

The paper examines pension reforms under population ageing.The concepts of "implicit pension debt", "implicit tax" and"internal rate of return" are first introduced with the helpof a three-period model. Using stylised facts, ageing is tracedto low fertility and increasing longevity. Formulating a benchmarkfor intergenerational fairness leads to a framework for designingpension reforms such that leaving an unfair burden to futuregenerations is avoided. Secondly, a yearly simulation modelis used to arrive at the following main results for reform blueprints: (1) In a Defined Benefit (DB) system, partial pre-funding isneeded to achieve intergenerational fairness unless benefitsare sufficiently reduced; partial privatisation is an optionfor the management of the accumulating funds. (2) Transition from a DB to a Notional Defined Contribution(NDC) system is another reform option; it reduces the replacementrates to levels which match prescribed contribution rates; anNDC public pillar can be accompanied by a second pillar, managedby the private sector. (3) An effective increase in the retirement age is necessaryto moderate the increase in pension expenditure and to preserveadequate pension levels. (4) Pension reforms have important effects on public financetarget setting. (JEL H1, H5, H6)     

Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the Spanish Pension Reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176% of 1996 GDP. Hence, we analyse the impact of alternative reforms. Holding the pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the Toledo Agreement proposals is shown to yield an intergenerationally more balanced outcome, than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, a move toward a partially funded pension system which restores the intergenerational balance is simulated.     

养老保险改革对家庭储蓄率的影响:中国的经验证据

本文利用1995年和1999年城镇住户调查数据(CHIPS)分析中国养老保险制度改革对家庭储蓄率的影响,从一个新的角度解释20世纪90年代中后期中国家庭储蓄率上升的原因。1995—1997年间中国对城镇企业职工进行的养老保险制度改革使得企业职工养老金财富发生变化,这种养老金财富的变化具有外生性,因而这项改革可以作为一项政策实验用来识别养老金财富对家庭储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明:中国的储蓄行为可以由生命周期模型解释;养老金财富对于家庭储蓄存在显著的替代效应,这一效应平均为-0.4—-0.3左右;但不同家庭这种替代效应有明显差异,户主年龄在35—49岁的家庭,储蓄率会显著受到养老金财富的影响,其他家庭这一影响并不显著。     

Occupation pension for public employees in the People's Republic of China: A new approach with defined benefit underpin pension plan

The State Council of the People's Republic of China announced a reformed pension plan for public employees with the occupation pension plan in January 2015, officially disclosing that the social pension systems for private and public employees will be unified. Our proposed occupation pension plan for public employees is one of the important components in transiting from a dual‐track pension system to a sustainable and unified system. We aim at providing a pension design, that is, the defined benefit (DB ) underpin pension with estimates of the costs and benefits. We have used a financial engineering approach to calculate the hedge contribution for a DB underpin hybrid pension plan benefit. We also treat pension benefit and salaries in aggregate. Therefore, we propose a stochastic and exogenous salary model. Employees’ total benefits can be determined by multiple factors, such as inflation, economic environment, and employer's preference. However, the expectation of employees’ total benefits should not be affected by the change of salary and pension benefits. Our results could facilitate the ongoing pension reform in the People's Republic of China, providing a rigorous benchmark with public policy implications as to plan design, cost estimation, as well as risk management approach.     

Social Security Systems,Human Capital,and Growth in a Small Open Economy

We consider a small open economy in which the level of public education funding is determined by popular vote. We show that growth can be enhanced by the introduction of pay‐as‐you‐go pensions even if the growth rate of aggregate wages falls short of the interest rate. The reason is that the pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) system allows future retirees to partially internalize positive externalities of public education due to the positive effect of higher future labor productivity on their pension benefits. The majority support for education funding will be especially strong when the PAYG benefit formula is flat, i.e., progressively redistributive. If a flat benefit PAYG pension system is in place then the economy will achieve the highest growth rate relative to the alternative pension system designs. While such PAYG pension system may be opposed by the majority of working individuals due to inferior returns to their pension contributions relative to a funded scheme, it is likely to be politically sustained by a coalition of older individuals and lower income workers.     

The effect on the Italian private pension market of increased uncertainty concerning public pension provision

This paper examines the effect on the demand for private pensions in Italy of the recent strong increase in uncertainty concernin future public pension provision. Theory suggests that such increase uncertainty will increase the demand for all forms of private sector saving, and, in particular, the demand for private pensions — despite the present generosity of the Italian public pension arrangement. This theoretical proposition is confirmed by an empirical test. The implications are important.     

Overview of the Portuguese Three Pillar Pension System

In order to cope with alleged future financial problems, several changes were made to the design of the Portuguese pension system since 2000. The aim was to achieve the diversification of retirement income sources across providers, both public and private, across the three pillars: public, industry-wide, and personal, and also across the financing forms of pay-as-you-go and funded. This paper describes these changes and analyses the results regarding, principally, the weight of each pillar and the investment performance of both public pension reserves and private pension funds. The main finding is that, in effect, there is one substantial longstanding pillar, and that is the public system.     

Public Pensions: To What Extent Do They Account for Swedish Wealth Inequality?

Sweden's distribution of disposable income is very even, with a Gini coefficient of just 0.31. Yet its wealth distribution is extremely unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.79. Moreover, Swedish wealth inequality is, to a large extent, driven by the large fraction of households with zero or negative wealth. In this paper, we investigate to what extent the redistributive public pension scheme is responsible for these features of the data. To address this problem, we study the properties of two overlapping generations economies with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk. The first has a pension system modeled on the actual system; the second has no public pension scheme at all. Our findings support the view that the public pension scheme is, to a large extent, responsible for the features of the data that we focus on. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, D31, H55.     

Public or Private Orientation of Pension Systems in the Light of the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper studies the appropriateness of a public or private orientation of pension systems in the light of the recent financial crisis, which has underscored the difficulties and contradictions associated with each system. The different institutional arrangements, in which public or private pension systems are embedded, are key components when assessing their responses to the crisis. Particularly, private pension systems are intertwined with financial markets, while social insurance-based pension systems are linked to the labour market mechanisms. This paper compares the British and French pension systems, as “archetypes” of private-oriented and public-oriented systems, respectively, the first relying on the market and private pension schemes, and the second on mandatory social insurance. This paper shows that the crisis has upheld the founding principles of the public (French) and private (British) pension systems to maintain the existing institutional configurations. At the same time, both systems have strengthened the role played by means-tested benefits and minimum pensions for low-income groups to offset the weaknesses of one or the other system, as emphasised by the crisis.     

我国最优混合养老保险体制的选择:收益和风险分析

养老金研究的核心问题之一在于选择合适的养老金计划运行方式。文章基于中国实际,通过引入随机性的"权衡理论"模型分析发现,在代表性参保人效用最大化前提下,运行方式选择类似于金融资产组合问题。所谓的艾隆条件只是在确定性模型下的特定结果。在加入风险因素后,即便在艾隆条件下,引入一定的积累制也将改善养老金体系的运行状况。两种制度最优的混合比例将受到人口增长率、工资增长率、个人风险规避倾向和金融市场因素的共同影响。分析结果表明提高养老金计划运行收益率和养老基金分散化投资有利于增进参保人效用。