Aging,Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan*

We analyze the impact of population aging on Japan's household savings rate and on its public pension system and the impact of that system on Japan's household savings rate and obtain the following results: first, the age structure of Japan's population can explain the level of, and past and future trends in, its household savings rate; second, the rapid aging of Japan's population is causing Japan's household savings rate to decline and this decline can be expected to continue; third, the pay‐as‐you‐go nature of the public pension system, combined with rapid population aging, created considerable intergenerational inequities and increased the savings rates of cohorts born after 1965, which in turn slowed the decline in Japan's household savings rate; and fourth, the 2004 public pension reform alleviated the intergenerational inequities of Japan's public pension system somewhat but will in the long run exacerbate the downward trend in Japan's household savings rate.     

Pension Reforms: An Illustrated Basic Analysis

The paper examines pension reforms under population ageing.The concepts of "implicit pension debt", "implicit tax" and"internal rate of return" are first introduced with the helpof a three-period model. Using stylised facts, ageing is tracedto low fertility and increasing longevity. Formulating a benchmarkfor intergenerational fairness leads to a framework for designingpension reforms such that leaving an unfair burden to futuregenerations is avoided. Secondly, a yearly simulation modelis used to arrive at the following main results for reform blueprints: (1) In a Defined Benefit (DB) system, partial pre-funding isneeded to achieve intergenerational fairness unless benefitsare sufficiently reduced; partial privatisation is an optionfor the management of the accumulating funds. (2) Transition from a DB to a Notional Defined Contribution(NDC) system is another reform option; it reduces the replacementrates to levels which match prescribed contribution rates; anNDC public pillar can be accompanied by a second pillar, managedby the private sector. (3) An effective increase in the retirement age is necessaryto moderate the increase in pension expenditure and to preserveadequate pension levels. (4) Pension reforms have important effects on public financetarget setting. (JEL H1, H5, H6)     

Public pensions and growth

This paper investigates the relationship between the size of an unfunded public pension system and economic growth in an overlapping generation economy, in which altruistic parents finance the education of their children and leave bequests. Unlike the existing literature, we model intergenerational altruism by assuming that children's income during adulthood is an argument of parental utility. Unfunded public pensions can promote growth when families face liquidity constraints preventing them from investing optimally in the education of their children. We consider two alternative ways of financing a public pension system, either by levying social contributions in a lump-sum manner or in proportion to labour income. We find that there is no case for unfunded public pensions in economies where bequests are operative. By contrast, there exists a growth-maximising size of the public pension system in economies where bequests are not operative and individuals are sufficiently patient.     

A SAVINGS SUBSIDISATION SYSTEM IN A MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH: AN EXTENSION OF WIGGER (1999)

Population ageing is now an established demographic characteristic of many economies. Economists working in the endogenous growth theory tradition have sought to model the relationship between public pensions, financed on a 'Pay-As-You-Go' basis, and the growth in per capita incomes. The resultant intergenerational wealth redistribution from young to older people seems to decrease private savings, diminish capital accumulation, and lower the growth of per capita incomes. The underlying transmission mechanism appears to be a crowding out effect in private capital markets contingent upon the introduction of public pension systems. A growing literature exists on the interrelationships between public pension schemes, fertility rates and endogenous growth. Following Wigger's (1999) pioneering overlapping generations endogenous growth model, we extend this model to examine the effects of a savings subsidisation system on the rate of per capita income growth, fertility and voluntary intrafamily wealth transfers, where parents view children both as an insurance good and a consumption good. Moreover, children care about the consumption levels of their parents. An increase in contributions to a savings subsidised public pension scheme will crowd out private intergenerational transfers from the young to the old and thereby negate the usefulness of children as an insurance good.     

The Intergenerational State Education and Pensions

When credit markets to finance investment in human capital are missing, the competitive equilibrium allocation is inefficient. When generations overlap, this failure can be mitigated by properly designed social arrangements. We show that public financing of education and public pensions can be designed to implement an intergenerational transfer scheme supporting the complete market allocation. Neither the public financing of education nor the pension scheme we consider resemble standard ones. In our mechanism, via the public education system, the young borrow from the middle aged to invest in human capital. They pay back the debt via a social security tax, the proceedings of which finance pension payments. When the complete market allocation is achieved, the rate of return implicit in this borrowing–lending scheme should equal the market rate of return.     

How Much is Transfer and How Much is Insurance in a Pay‐as‐you‐go System? The German Case

Pay-as-you-go pension systems provide insurance against longevity-related old-age poverty and related risks. They are commonly also used as instruments for redistribution. This paper provides several estimates of the insurance and transfer share of the German public pension system. Estimating these shares is important because they are indicative of taxation-related deadweight losses and influence public acceptance of the pension system. We also disentangle intragenerational from intergenerational transfers. Although our estimate of intragenerational transfers is smaller than recent semi-official estimations, such transfers create substantial deadweight losses. Intergenerational transfers are much larger, thereby contributing to strong negative participation incentives for the younger generation.
JEL classification : H 55; J 26     

Income Redistribution Effect Of Public Pensions Between Dynastic Families

This paper investigates income transfers between dynastic families caused by a public pension system. Using Japanese data, we present simulation results based on a model in which intergenerational altruism works, and income distribution exists between and within generations. The growth rates of income and population, as well as the formulation for the determination of the contribution rate and the payment rate, are crucial to determine both the qualitative and quantitative effects. Especially, under negative income growth over generations, pay–as–you–go public pensions can cause negative income redistribution.     

中国城镇养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应——基于2002年城镇住户调查数据的定量分析

Using the micro data of Urban Household Survey made by the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBS) in 2002, this paper studies quantitatively the distributional effects of Public Pension Reform in urban China, from intragenerational and intergenerational perspectives, by measuring lifetime net benefits that urban employees obtain under the public pension system in 1997 and the newest one announced in December 2005, respectively. The results indicate that the regressive income transfer existing before implementation of the reform is improved as a consequence of the 1997 reform. However, the Act of 2005 Reform generates the obvious inclination of the regressive income transfer among people who exceed 40 years old in 2002. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of intergenerational distribution, the intergenerational inequality resulted from 1997 reform is greater than that from 2005 reform. Moreover, all generations would receive higher lifetime net benefits under the Act of 2005 Reform, but it must be based on sustainable pension system and participants’ full pension contribution during their duration of employment. __________ Translated from Jingji yanjiu 经济研究(Economic Research Journal), 2007, (3): 70–80, 91     

Political viability of public pensions and education. An empirical application

Public intergenerational transfers (IGTs) may emerge from the failure of private arrangements to provide optimal economic resources for the young and old. We investigate the political sustainability of the public system of IGTs by seeking to determine the outcome if the decision to reallocate economic resources per se was put to the vote. Exploiting the particular nature of the data from the National Transfer Accounts data in a political economy application in which generations cooperate under certain conditions, we show that most of the developed countries would vote in favour of a joint public education and pension system.     

Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective

The paper examines the effect of population ageing on public education spending. On the one hand, ageing is expected to have a negative effect on education, as an increasing number of retirees results in ‘intergenerational conflict’ and, hence, the condemnation of education expenditure. On the other hand, ageing, in combination with pay-as-you-go pension systems, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to ‘reap’ the benefits (that is, higher income tax/contributions) of their greater future productivity. Empirical evidence derived from the application of a fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has a non-linear effect on education spending. This indicates a certain degree of intergenerational conflict. Nevertheless, we find that future population ageing, which reinforces the mechanism linking public education and pensions, reflects positively on education expenditure. Furthermore, by disaggregating total education expenditure by educational levels, we observe that this effect is led by levels of non-compulsory education, probably as a reflection of the direct connection to labor productivity.     

Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations to explore the effects of different public pension schemes on economic welfare, and intergenerational and intragenerational equity. Besides the benchmark case based on the 2004 public pension reform, the present paper considers two alternative reforms: financing the basic pension benefit through a consumption tax, and eliminating the earnings‐related pension benefit. The simulation results suggest that even the consumption‐tax financing of only the basic pension, namely, the combination of both reforms, might not improve overall economic welfare, although it increases economic output by inducing capital formation.     

Voluntary participation and intergenerational risk sharing in a funded pension system

We explore the feasibility of a funded pension system with intergenerational risk sharing when participation in the system is voluntary. Typically, the willingness of the young to participate depends on their belief about the future young's willingness to do so. We characterise equilibria with voluntary participation and show that the likelihood of their existence increases with risk aversion and financial market uncertainty. We find that mandatory participation is often necessary to sustain a funded pension pillar and to let participants benefit from intergenerational risk sharing.     

Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria

Based on Austria's fiscal stance in 1995, wecompute the generational accounts for currently living as well as future generations.The results reveal the existence of an intergenerational imbalance in favor of currentlyliving generations. Total public sector liabilities may be more than five times as high asthe officially recorded level of public debt. Without any action, future generations would facelife-time net taxes that are about 65 percent higher than the tax burden of a current newborn.If the government could fully and permanently retain the expenditure cutting andrevenue raising effects of the 1996 fiscal consolidation package and the 1997 pension reform,then it might be able to significantly reduce the intergenerational liabilities. However,enacting both the recent tax reform 2000 and the reform of the family support scheme wouldincrease again the fiscal imbalance and intergenerational bias of fiscal policy in Austria.     

Occupation pension for public employees in the People's Republic of China: A new approach with defined benefit underpin pension plan

The State Council of the People's Republic of China announced a reformed pension plan for public employees with the occupation pension plan in January 2015, officially disclosing that the social pension systems for private and public employees will be unified. Our proposed occupation pension plan for public employees is one of the important components in transiting from a dual‐track pension system to a sustainable and unified system. We aim at providing a pension design, that is, the defined benefit (DB ) underpin pension with estimates of the costs and benefits. We have used a financial engineering approach to calculate the hedge contribution for a DB underpin hybrid pension plan benefit. We also treat pension benefit and salaries in aggregate. Therefore, we propose a stochastic and exogenous salary model. Employees’ total benefits can be determined by multiple factors, such as inflation, economic environment, and employer's preference. However, the expectation of employees’ total benefits should not be affected by the change of salary and pension benefits. Our results could facilitate the ongoing pension reform in the People's Republic of China, providing a rigorous benchmark with public policy implications as to plan design, cost estimation, as well as risk management approach.     

Collective Annuities and Redistribution

This paper studies the role of alternative pension systems that offer collective annuities. The defining characteristic of collective annuities is that they do not depend on an individual's survival probabilities. We show that such a system may be welfare improving (with a utilitarian social welfare function) even when private annuity markets are perfect and when life expectancy and earning abilities are positively correlated (i.e., in a setting that is  a priori  biased against collective annuities). We first concentrate on linear pension systems and contrast two schemes: a pure contributory (Bismarckian) pension and a flat rate (Beveridgean) pension. We show that the case for collective annuities is stronger when they are associated with a flat pension system. Then we analyze nonlinear pension schemes. We show that the solution can be implemented by a pension scheme associated with annuities that reflect some degree of "collectiveness." Unlike under pure collective annuities, benefits do depend on life expectancy but to a lesser degree than with actuarially fair private annuities. In other words, the impact of survival probabilities is mitigated rather than completely neutralized.     

HOMEMAKER PENSIONS AND LIFETIME REDISTRIBUTION

There has been considerable public debate in Canada on the merits of proposals to extend coverage under the public earnings-related pension system (the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans or C/QPP) to homemakers. This paper presents an analysis of one such proposal put forward by a Parliamentary Committee in 1983. The analysis considers both the likely costs and the redistributional impact of this homemaker pension proposal, based on a Monte Carlo lifecycle microsimulation model. The main results are first that the proposal tends to be mildly redistributive from higher to lower lifetime income groups. Secondly, the proposal is of not as much benefit to women as might be expected-it is almost equal in value to men and women. This later conclusion is the result of the fact that the homemaker pension provision was part of a package tl at also included splitting of pension credits accrued during marriage.     

基于公共清算所的个人账户养老基金管理模式研究

在分析个人账户基金管理的委托人职责缺失、管理效率低下、基金保值增值难等问题的基础上.通过对个人账户管理模式和投资决策模式的分析,以及结合产权理论与委托代理理论,构建一种新的个人账户基金管理模式,即公私结合管理模式——中央层面成立公共清算机构负责基金管理,在旗下成立多家个人账户基金投资公司,负责个人账户基金的投资运营.这对养老基金的保值增值以及养老金制度的可持续发展都具有深远意义.     

公共养老储备基金融资政策研究——国际经验及其启示

目前多数国家都是在对其未来的养老金债务进行精算的基础上确定其养老储备基金的规模及政府注资的法定义务，并将财政拨款、公共资源收入和国有资产变现收入及其分红等作为养老储备基金的主要来源。目前，我国现行法律的相关规定难以保证全国社保基金具有一个稳定的资金来源，不利于全国社保基金发挥战略储备基金的作用。应借鉴发达国家的经验，在相关法律中对全国社保基金作为养老储备基金的性质、支出范围和目标规模以及每年划入全国社保基金的资产种类、数额等予以明确的界定，以确立全国社保基金可持续发展的制度基础。     

Raising productivity with pension premium

We argue that parents underinvest in growing their own children's capability in the absence of property rights over their future income, and that causes economic waste. No amount of collaborative choice among contemporary adults for public education could eliminate it because they face a resource constraint set by their predecessors. Such intergenerational dependence requires an intergenerational contract instead. It involves rewarding parents with a pension premium tied to their own children's taxable income paired with a matching subsidy to parental expenditure. We show how it fully internalizes the intergenerational externality, related to parenting, to eliminate economic waste and, thereby, to raise labor productivity and economic welfare. Our quantitative analysis of a baseline economy reveals significant welfare gains in economies with population ageing coupled with a low degree of parental care for children's future welfare and high returns to parental expenditure on children.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度的人性化选择

伴随着城镇企业养老保险制度的逐渐完善,建立机关事业单位养老保险制度无疑是目前社会养老保险工作中最棘手的难题。由于过去城镇内部养老保险“二元化”特征导致现阶段对机关事业单位试点和改革存在诸多的分歧,试图在过去改革试点和城镇养老保险改革的经验基础上,以最终建立全国统一的社会保障制度为目标,力图最小化转制成本,对机关事业单位养老保险制度建立的原则和框架问题做一些探索。