Influence structure in organizational buying behavior

Empirical support is needed for the wealth of existing conceptual models describing organizational buying processes. This study focuses on measuring and understanding the relative influence of different buying center components in the context of convention site selection by a sample of North American associations. Mail questionnaires were sent to members of each major buying center component of 506 associations located in the United States and Canada. Responses were received from 386 permanent association executives, 650 elected officers of associations, and 1870 association members. The study found that important differences existed in the influence of different buying center components, with elected officers generally having the most influence and members the least. This general finding was qualified, however, by two factors. First, dominance in the decision process was found not to be a generalized phenomenon. Rather, it varied with specific subdecisions. Second, the nature of influence structure was found to vary significantly across associations having different objectives, structures, and sizes.     

Dividend decisions and the structure of the life insurance industry

The behavior of life insurance company dividend decision-making is modeled for both stock and mutual companies. Insurer payout behavior, regardless of organizational form, follows a “savings” pattern which buffers the dividend stream from short-run variability. Thus total payouts to policyholders and/or stockholders reflect long-term results rather than annual experience. Variables important in explaining annual changes in dividend levels are related to the organizational structure of the insurer. Whereas mutual companies primarily relate the change in payout to volume, stock companies' payout differentials are primarily a function of earnings. The study also examines the relative importance of policy reserves, contingency reserves, and surplus in dividend decisions.     

Short sales restrictions and the security market line

A reformulation of the CAPM is derived by taking account of short-sales restrictions on both risky and safe assets. The induced security market line is shown to be consistent with the empirical security market lines of various researchers.     

机构投资者对现金股利影响的实证分析

机构投资者和现金股利被认为具有保护投资者利益的功能,但现有文献缺乏对机构投资者和现金股利关系的分析。利用2001—2009年上市公司数据进行实证分析,结果表明:机构投资者数量和信息披露对现金股利有显著性正面影响,而个人投资者数量对现金股利有显著性负面影响,说明机构投资者有股利偏好行为,信息披露有强化股利信号的传递功能。实证结果还表明,机构投资者的数量比所有权对现金股利有更重要的影响。     

Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China

We examine how the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon enforced on September 8, 2015, influences stock price stability in China's A-share market. As the new dividend tax policy waives the tax on cash dividends for investors holding a stock for more than a year, it encourages long-term investment behavior. From 2013 to 2017, we find that stock turnover, return volatility, and turnover volatility decrease after the policy enforcement, especially for stocks with high dividend yields. This result shows that dividend tax reforms increase investors' stock investment horizons and help stabilize the market. However, our findings demonstrate that stock crash risk increases after policy enforcement. Further analysis shows that earnings management through real activities manipulation for stocks with a higher dividend yield contributes to an increase in stock crash risk. Therefore, one externality of the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon is that top managers of firms with a higher dividend yield may take advantage of investors' passive longer-term investment behavior and engage in more earnings management. This result suggests that regulatory agencies should pay attention to top managers' earnings management behavior after enacting policies that encourage long-term investment.     

中国上市银行现金股利分配影响因素研究

现金股利分配是上市银行的重要财务管理活动,合理分配现金股利对上市银行至关重要。基于2009年至2013年上海和深圳两个证券交易所上市的16家银行的数据,从上市银行的盈利能力、负债水平、现金流量和银行规模等方面,选取相应指标构建回归模型进行实证分析,发现盈利能力和负债水平对我国上市银行现金股利分配有显著影响,而现金流量与银行规模对现金股利分配的影响并不显著。     

A term structure model for dividends and interest rates

Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump‐diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and the dividend paying stock are given in closed form. We present an efficient moment based approximation method for option pricing. In a calibration exercise we show that a parsimonious model specification has a good fit with Euribor interest rate swaps and swaptions, Euro Stoxx 50 Index dividend futures and dividend options, and Euro Stoxx 50 Index options.     

Dividend‐Rollover Effect and the Ad Hoc Black‐Scholes Model

One of the most widely used option‐valuation models among practitioners is the ad hoc Black‐Scholes (AHBS) model. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We carefully consider three dividend strategies (No dividend, Implied‐forward dividend, and Actual dividend) for the AHBS model to investigate their effect on pricing errors. We suggest a new dividend strategy, implied‐forward dividend, which incorporates expectational information on dividends embedded in option prices. We demonstrate that our implied‐forward dividend strategy produces more consistent estimates between in‐sample market and model option prices. More importantly our new implied‐forward dividend strategy makes more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts for one‐day or one‐week ahead prices. Second, we document that both a “Return‐volatility” Smile and a “Return‐pricing Error” Smile exist. From these return characteristics, we make two conclusions: (1) the return dependency of implied volatility is an important explanatory variable and should be controlled to reduce the pricing error of an AHBS model, and (2) it is important for the hedging horizon to be based on return size, that is, the larger the contemporaneous return, the more frequent an option issuer must rebalance the option's hedge. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:742‐772, 2012     

强制分红对企业创新的负面影响

近年来出现的分红与再融资挂钩政策,不仅没有给股民带来多少即时收益,反而损害了企业与股民的长期利益：一方面分红给股民带来收入幻觉,其实真正的受益者是大股东与管理层;另一方面强制分红政策产生监管悖论,也不符合国际趋势。股民与企业的利益结合点在于企业的创新,强制分红损害了创新的可持续,从而损害彼此利益。停止强制分红、放权于市场才是正确选择。     

股利政策信息结构与股价行为研究

通过构建股利政策信息结构和时空两维股利信息模型,研究中国上市公司不同股利政策的信息结构、信息环境及其对波动性、市场深度和流动性等股价行为的影响。研究发现现金股利政策公告前,没有发现显著的信息性交易行为;股票股利政策公告前后,市场信息结构没有发生显著的变化;不分配利润的企业在公告前,出现了显著的由信息引起的交易行为;公司发布股利政策不仅能够传递公司价值的信息,而且公司价值信息的传递还与市场所处的信息环境密切相关,不同的信息环境、信息结构影响了信息作用于市场变量的变化路径。     

Determinants of dividend smoothing in emerging market: The case of Korea

Dividend smoothing is a well-established empirical fact in developed countries. This paper investigates the dividend smoothing behavior in Korea where the tax regime and institutional settings of the financial market are different from those of developed countries. The empirical evidence shows that the dividend smoothing decision is influenced not only by a firm's characteristics, but also by macroeconomic factors such as tax and interest rates. Detailed results are as follows. First, application of the Lintner model shows that the extent of dividend smoothing in Korean firms is found to be less than that in the U.S. firms. Second, size, risk, growth and large shareholder ownership are found to be important determinants of dividend smoothing. Larger firms and lower growth firms smooth dividends more. Riskier firms tend to smooth more during the sample period while safer firms smooth dividends more for the post-liberalization period. These results are not consistent with the predictions of information asymmetry models. In addition, contrary to the agency theory based explanations of dividend smoothing, firms with concentrated ownership smooth dividend more. Finally, as for the effect of macroeconomic factors on dividend smoothing, both tax and interest rates are found to have significantly positive relationships with the degree of dividend smoothing. These findings suggest that institutional factors of financial market can play a critical role in understanding the dividend behavior in emerging markets.     

我国上市公司股利政策信息内涵的实证研究

股利政策是现代公司理财的三大核心内容之一,它是公司融资、投资活动的延续,是其理财行为的必然结果。本文采用事件研究法对我国上市公司股利政策的信息内涵进行实证研究,以1997-2004年度上海证券交易所上市的A股股票的股利分配行为为研究对象,考察我国上市公司的股利政策是否传递了信息、传递了怎样的信息这两个方面的内容;同时,针对不同的股利支付方式进行了信息传递的敏感性测试。     

会计盈余信息含量与股利信息含量关系的实证研究

2001年以后,我国证券市场制度建设不断推进,对投资者利益的保护日益受到广泛重视,上市公司的现金股利政策发生了显著变化。同时,我国上市公司的盈利信息和股利信息是同时公布的,因此有必要对上市公司的现金股利信息含量,以及会计盈余信息含量与股利信息含量的确证效应进行检验。实证结果发现:现金股利的变动与股价变动正相关,股利信息具有信息含量;盈利信息与股利信息之间具有一定的确证效应,但投资者不能根据股利信息判断企业未来盈利状况。     

Taxes,Order Imbalance and Abnormal Returns around the ex‐Dividend day

A costly arbitrage model, developed for the Australian imputation tax system, shows that stocks paying dividends with a tax credit are likely targets for ex‐dividend arbitrage. We show that order imbalance, based on the direct observation of buyer and seller initiated trades, is a key factor in price movements around the ex‐dividend day. Buying pressure before the ex‐dividend day aimed at capturing the dividend and tax credit leads to an increase in prices that subsequently reverse in the ex‐dividend period. This effect is concentrated in those stocks distributing a tax credit with their dividend payments. The price pressure resulting from order imbalance is substantially higher around the ex‐dividend day relative to the effect observed outside this period. Our results reject the model of Frank and Jagannathan ( 1998 ) that bid‐ask bounce is responsible for the ex‐day premium and provide support for explanations based on taxes, transaction costs, and incomplete price adjustment on the ex‐day.     

基于迎合理论的中国上市公司现金股利变更性研究

基于现金股利变更的动态视角,利用2000－2013年度中国证券市场的数据,分别从市场整体迎合与上市公司单个迎合方面,实证检验了迎合理论在中国证券市场的适用性。研究发现,迎合理论能够作为解释中国上市公司分配现金股利的原因。从市场整体状况来看,上市公司的当年度现金股利意愿与上年度的市场股利溢价之间存在明显的相同趋势,而从上市公司状况来看,若上市公司的现金股利意愿与市场股利溢价水平之间的差距越大,则更有可能变更现金股利形式以迎合证券市场投资者的需求。     

Variance decomposition of the country,industry, firm,and firm-year effects on dividend policy

Why some firms distribute generous cash dividends while others are reluctant to do so remains an unanswered question despite decades of scholarly examination. Although the extant literature on dividend policy has explored the effects of determinants at the country, industry, firm, and firm-year levels, it remains unclear whether and how much each level of analysis matters to dividend policy. Consequently, this study seeks to move the literature forward by decomposing the variance at each level associated with dividend policies in a global sample of 8903 firms over an 11-year time period. We employ hierarchical linear modeling and find that all four levels of analysis help to explain dividend policy, but the firm and firm-year effects account for the majority of variance. Furthermore, decomposing the variance within each year reveals that the firm level has the strongest effect on dividend policy. Finally, while the variance in dividend policy explained by each level varies according to the dividend policy measure used, it is largely stable over our study period. We discuss implications of these findings for future research on dividend policy and for the field of comparative corporate governance.     

How Does Stock Market React to Dividend Surprises? Evidence from Emerging Markets of India and Russia

In this article the authors empirically investigate information content of dividends announcements and average reaction of emerging markets of India and Russia to dividend surprises on the postcrisis period 2010 to 2014. The study applies an analysts’ expectations-based approach rarely used in academic literature. The authors conclude that the Russian market on average reacts negatively to good and bad dividend surprises; good dividend surprises on average trigger positive abnormal returns on Indian stocks, whereas bad and no surprises are associated with negative reactions of the Indian market. Results of the study are discussed from the perspective of dividend signaling theory, market efficiency, and investor behavior.     

Instability in the dividend policy of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) corporations: evidence from an emerging market

Dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in emerging markets is significantly different from the widely accepted dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets. This study provides evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), an emerging European stock market, and analyses empirically whether the ISE corporations follow stable cash dividend policies in a regulatory environment that imposed mandatory dividend policies. Unlike the empirical results supporting the stable dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets, the empirical results show that the ISE corporations follow unstable cash dividend policies and the main factor that determines the amount of cash dividends is the earnings of the corporation in that year.     

低现金股利政策、股东财富与控股股东决策

根据Jensen的自有现金流量假说,在不考虑股票回购条件下,将公司支付的现金股利数量低于自由现金流量定义为低现金股利政策.研究显示,低现金股利政策不利于股东财富最大化,在低现金股利政策范围内,提高现金股利会提高股东财富.但从控股股东财富最大化出发,实施低现金股利政策有助于实现其获取控制权私有收益以本身的财富最大化.