论我国的利率市场化

我国长期实行的利率管制政策曾对我国的经济发展起到了一定的促进作用,但随着改革的推进,利率市场化已成为当务之急,本在借鉴发展中国家利率市场化的经验的基础上,探讨了我国利率市场化的可行性,指出当前正是推行利率市场化的最佳时机。     

中国利率市场化现状及改进

利率市场化改革是我国当前的经济热点问题,本文就什么是利率市场化、如何进行利率市场化改革,我国利率市场化改革的历程等问题进行阐述,并对我国利率市场化的进一步改革的条件进行分析。     

积极推进利率市场化的策略选择

目前,我国利率市场化改革稳步推进。利率市场化已实现了“贷款利率管下限、存款利率管上限”的阶段性目标,标志着我国向利率市场化迈进了重大一步。毫无疑问,利率市场化的实现对于我国金融改革和市场经济具有深远的意义。     

浅析利率市场化对我国商业银行的影响

我国利率市场化经历了16年,存贷款利率,尤其是存款利率的市场化改革已进入攻坚阶段。国外经验表明存款利率市场化是利率市场化改革成败的关键。利率市场化给我国银行业带来多面的影响,为了更好的适应市场化进程,商业银行应激励产品创新,丰富产品结构,优化公司治理,加强风险控制。     

我国利率市场化进程问题研究

利率市场化是相对于利率管制而言的,稳步推进利率市场化是我国金融改革的重要内容,是市场经济发展的必然趋势.通过分析我国利率市场化改革的历史进程及存在的主要问题,提出如何有效地深化利率改革和建立适合我国国情的利率市场化建议.     

浅析我国金融机构利率市场化应该注意的几个方面

利率市场化是我国金融改革的重要内容。中国早期的改革侧重于理顺商品价格。20世纪90年代后期以来,开始强调生产要素价格的合理化与市场化。资金是重要的生产要素,利率是资金的价格,利率市场化是生产要素价格市场化的重要方面。中国的利率市场化是在借鉴世界各国经验的基础上,按照党中央、国务院的统一部署稳步推进的。总体思路是先货币市场和债券市场利率市场化,后存贷款利率市场化。     

从国际经验看利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响

在十二五时期,我国的利率市场化进程将不断加快,而在这个阶段中,放开存贷款利率已经成为了我国开展市场化改革的一项重要任务。在本文中,将从国际经验的角度对利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响进行一定的研究与分析。     

浅析利率市场化

本文详细分析了我国实施利率市场化的原因,并总结了推进利率市场化改革的配套条件。利率市场化已经是大势所趋。有规划、有步骤、坚定不移地推进利率市场化改革的方向必须得以坚持,这也是进一步深化我国金融体制改革、从长远保证我国经济健康平稳发展的要求。     

实行浮动利率机制稳步推进利率市场化

随着全球经济一体化的不断深入 ,和我国加入ＷＴＯ以后金融业面临的形势 ,利率市场化已成为社会各界关注的热点 ,也成为金融业改革的关键点。对于我国利率市场化的步骤 ,已经基本形成了先外币后本币、先贷款后存款的共识 ,2 0 0 0年 9月 2 1日开始的外币利率市场化改革 ,已经迈出了我国整体利率市场化改革的第一步。在人民币利率市场化呼之欲出的时候 ,有消息称四大国有银行向央行提议 ,希望能推迟利率市场化的进程。其原因是 ,从我国的经济现状来看 ,一步到位地全部放开人民币利率管制是不可取的。在配套的金融改革其它方面还不完善的时候 …     

商业银行贷款定价机制的构建

一、我国利率市场化进程回顾 我国利率市场化改革自1996年正式启动以来，按照“先外币后本币，先大额后小额”的原则，循序渐进，稳步推进，目前已经取得了阶段性进展；利率市场化改革实现了银行间市场利率、国债和政策性金融债发行利率的市场化；人民银行改革了贴现利率生成机制，再贴现利率成为中国银行一项独立的货币政策工具。     

线性和非线性视角下的费雪效应实证检验

基于2000年1月~2009年12月我国名义利率和通货膨胀率均为非平稳时间序列的事实,采用Johansen协整检验和门限协整(threshold cointegration)两种方法对我国是否存在费雪效应进行检验;实证发现,两种方法均支持我国存在弱费雪效应,但得出来的弱费雪效应程度却存在差别,前者认为我国通货膨胀率的变化只有6%反应到名义利率上面,而后者认为这个比例达到42.4%。     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode (“sticky price mode”) but is low at the other mode (“flexible price mode”). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: EVIDENCE AND THEORY

Abstract. The term structure of interest rates is an old topic. Over the years, both the hypotheses debated and the research techniques used have changed considerably. Two fairly recent developments which distinguish current research are the widespread adoption of rational expectations and the integration of the term structure with the general theory of asset pricing. This survey reviews previous work from this perspective. The main objective is to catalogue available evidence about term premia and to interpret this evidence in light of alternative models of term premia determination.     

Low interest rate policy and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets

This paper sheds light on the link between the interest rate policy in large advanced economies with international funding and reserve currencies (the United States and the euro area) and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets. Using reserve requirement data for 28 emerging markets from 1998 to 2012, we provide evidence that emerging market central banks tend to raise reserve requirements when interest rates in international funding markets decline or financial inflows accelerate, most likely to preserve financial stability. In contrast, when global liquidity risk rises and funding from the large advanced economies dries up, emerging markets lower reserve requirements.     

Degrees of tax indexation and nominal interest rates: Effects of inflation on incentives to save and invest

This paper examines the effects of inflation expectations on nominal interest rates, and incentives to save and invest under partial and complete tax indexation schemes. One would expect that a partially indexed structure would be better than a non-indexed system. However, this is not the case—it reduces the adverse effects of inflation on the incentives to save, but accentuates them on the incentives to invest. Moreover, a change from a non-indexed tax structure to a fully-indexed structure will, ceteris paribus, lead to lower equilibrium interest rates, whereas a switch to a partially indexed system will imply higher rates.

Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.     

我国货币供应方式对市场利率的影响

本文选用2002年至2012年的中国月度数据,采用Johansen协整检验和VEC模型分析的方法,实证研究基础货币同比增长率（MB）和法定存款准备金率同比增长率（RR）联合影响90天期限的全国银行间同业拆借利率（N90D）。结果表明：RR变动是N90D变动的Granger极其显著的原因;MB变动不是N90D变动的Granger原因;MB变动和RR变动两者联合是N90D变动的显著Granger原因,N90D与MB、RR存在长期均衡关系：RR每上升1%,N90D就会上升20.75%,MB每上升1%,N90D就会下降0.47%。法定存款准备金率变动造成市场利率剧烈波动,而公开市场操作对市场利率影响微弱。本文特提出政策建议：1、进一步推进利率市场化;2、减少法定存款准备金率的使用;3、货币政策中介目标逐步过度到利率指标。     

利率变化对房地产价格的影响分析

利率不仅是金融系统中最重要的变量,也是市场经济最基础的变量之一。利率通过其传导机制发挥其调节功能。房地产市场是我国社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分,房地产业是我国的新兴支柱产业,那么利率与房价有无关系呢?本文阐述了利率及房地产价格的基本理论,论述了房地产在国民经济中的作用,通过实证研究分析了利率与房地产价格之间的关系。     

我国国债利率期限结构研究

本文简要地阐述了利率期限结构理论,并对国内外的有关利率期限结构的模型进行了评述。在国内的国债利率期限结构模型的基础上,根据现有的数据,分析了我国国债利率期限结构曲线的变动趋势并提出了预测模型。