Bond market integration of emerging economies and bilateral linkages

Although there are numerous studies that have looked at the spillover effects in equity markets, little attention has been paid to explore the integration of bond markets of developed and emerging economies. Our paper is an attempt to fill this void by quantifying the spillovers from developed countries on the bond markets of 25 emerging economies. We apply volatility and return spillover models to quantify the extent of the spillovers from developed markets (i.e. the United States, UK and Japan) into emerging bond markets. We find that the extent of the return spillovers and volatility spillovers has not been symmetric across emerging markets. We explain these differences using bilateral factors such as trade volume, portfolio investment, cultural and geographical factors. The bilateral trade volume turns out to be the leading explanation for the extent of spillovers between our set of countries.     

Causality in volatility and volatility spillover effects between US, Japan and four equity markets in the South China Growth Triangular

In examining co-movement across international stock markets, previous researchers usually pre-determine the direction of causation and neglect the Chinese equity markets. In this study, we examine the spillover effects of volatility among the two developed markets and four emerging markets in the South China Growth Triangular using Chueng and Ng's causality-in-variance test. Several findings deserve mention: (1) the Japanese stock market affects the US stock market and there is a feedback relationship between the Hong Kong and US stock market. (2) Markets of the SCGT are contemporaneously correlated with the return volatility of the US market. (3) Econometric models constructed according to the results of variance-in-causality tests have greater explanatory power than the conventional GARCH(1,1) model. (4) Using the return volatility of foreign exchange as a proxy for informational arrival can explain excess kurtosis of a stock return series, especially for the less open emerging market. (5) Geographic proximity and economic ties do not necessarily lead to a strong relationship in volatility across markets.     

Spatial linkage of volatility spillovers and its explanation across G20 stock markets: A network framework

This paper empirically estimates the spatial correlation relationship of volatility spillovers and its influencing factors across G20 stock market. We apply GARCH-BEKK model to estimate volatility spillover and construct dynamic volatility networks. The connectedness analysis shows that the spatial linkage of volatility spillover is time varying and has obvious multiple superposition phenomena. As somewhat innovation results, we use the factor analysis method to obtain centrality comprehensive indicators that can clearly depict the risk contagion intensity and risk acceptance intensity. In general, the developed markets are more influential than the emerging markets during periods of turbulence, and the emerging markets are more sensitive to volatility shocks than developed markets during any period. Finally, this paper introduces quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) method to identify the major factors that influence the spatial linkage of volatility spillovers. Results show that geography influences the volatility spatial correlation differently across economic cycles, and the centrality structure factors have greater impact on the spatial correlation than the external economic factors. The QAP regression analysis shows that these influencing factors can explain about 50% of the spatial correlation variation of international financial markets' volatility spillovers.     

Returns and volatility spillover in the European banking industry during global financial crisis: Flight to perceived quality or contagion?

This paper empirically investigates return, volatility and leverage spillover effects between banking industrial stock markets of the major economies (ME) (Germany, UK and US) and the smaller stressed European Union countries (SE), (Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal) from 2002 to 2014 which includes the global financial crisis period (2007–2014). Thus the paper investigates the influence of the global crisis on the spillover between the banking industrial stock markets of Europe and the US. We apply a multivariate GARCH–GJR framework to investigate the effects of the financial crisis with respect to spillover. Our results indicate an increase in both means and volatility spillover between the major economies and the stressed EU economies from the pre-crisis to the crisis period. During the pre-crisis period there is ample evidence of spillover from Germany, UK and the US to the smaller EU economies. Little evidence of a significant spillover from the smaller economies to the major economies is found during this period. We find that return and volatility transmission mechanisms between the major economies and the smaller EU countries are asymmetric during the crisis period. During the crisis, the level and amount of spillover from the major economies increase. But now there is also clear evidence of spillover from smaller EU economies to the major economies, this is especially true for Germany and the UK. Evidence of spillover effects suggests the existence of exploitable trading strategies and has important implications to investors in the areas of option pricing, portfolio optimization and risk management.     

Asymmetry in spillover effects: Evidence for international stock index futures markets

The paper investigates the asymmetry in return and volatility spillovers across futures markets with non-overlapping stock exchange trading hours. The transmission of positive and negative return and volatility shocks is analysed for 104 channels of information conveyance identified by combining 9 developed and 11 emerging markets in markets pairs with non-overlapping trading hours. The asymmetric causality test is employed to daily stock index futures returns and volatilities for the period from 03 October 2010 to 03 October 2014. The paper sheds light on the relatively little explored concept of asymmetry in return and volatility spillovers across markets, providing novel evidence on stabilizing and destabilizing spillover effects.     

Do Global Risk Perceptions Play a Role in Emerging Market Equity Return Volatilities?

This paper investigates whether global risk perceptions lead emerging market return volatilities. In so doing, we analyzed the period of interest in three parts to determine the effects of the changes in global risk perceptions on the volatility of emerging markets. We uncovered volatility spillover from risk perceptions to the MXEF returns before the crisis. Our results show that all the effects on emerging market volatilities are severed in 2008, during which MXEF follows a downward trend. However, we observe that volatility transmission emerges during the recovery period of MXEF again. Hence, risk perceptions should be considered while analyzing emerging markets.     

SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位——汇率市场波动传染与波动聚类的实时甄别

随着人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位引人瞩目。本文基于非线性MSBIARCH模型,实时甄别人民币市场与美元市场、英镑市场、日元市场、欧元市场之间的波动传染关系,以及波动传染作用下汇率市场的波动聚类态势,进而识别SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位,旨在为及时防范并规避人民币市场的波动风险提供参考。研究发现,汇率市场经由“经济基本面”“市场情绪”以及“市场预期”对外发挥波动传染作用,人民币市场与美元市场之间存在双向波动传染关系,与英镑市场、欧元市场以及日元市场之间存在单向波动传染关系。不同汇率市场之间的波动传染关系表现出时间区制转移特征,汇率市场的波动聚类态势也呈现时变特征。汇率市场发挥波动传染作用的时间与汇率市场呈现波动聚类态势的时间相匹配,均集中在极端经济事件期、不规则事件期以及政策颁布事件期。国际汇率市场的波动传染作用导致了人民币市场的波动聚类态势,而人民币市场的波动传染作用仅强化了国际汇率市场的波动聚类态势,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化程度有待进一步提高。     

SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位——汇率市场波动传染与波动聚类的实时甄别

随着人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位引人瞩目。本文基于非线性MSBIARCH模型,实时甄别人民币市场与美元市场、英镑市场、日元市场、欧元市场之间的波动传染关系,以及波动传染作用下汇率市场的波动聚类态势,进而识别SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位,旨在为及时防范并规避人民币市场的波动风险提供参考。研究发现,汇率市场经由“经济基本面”“市场情绪”以及“市场预期”对外发挥波动传染作用,人民币市场与美元市场之间存在双向波动传染关系,与英镑市场、欧元市场以及日元市场之间存在单向波动传染关系。不同汇率市场之间的波动传染关系表现出时间区制转移特征,汇率市场的波动聚类态势也呈现时变特征。汇率市场发挥波动传染作用的时间与汇率市场呈现波动聚类态势的时间相匹配,均集中在极端经济事件期、不规则事件期以及政策颁布事件期。国际汇率市场的波动传染作用导致了人民币市场的波动聚类态势,而人民币市场的波动传染作用仅强化了国际汇率市场的波动聚类态势,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化程度有待进一步提高。     

Do bears and bulls swim across oceans? Market information transmission between greater China and the rest of the world

This study investigates returns and volatilities transmission across Greater China’s four emerging stock markets and three developed international markets, Tokyo, London, and New York. Using daily open and close price data from 1994 to 2001, we provide empirical evidence that the overnight returns on all the Greater China stock indices can be estimated by using information from at least one of the three developed markets’ daytime returns. The contemporaneous return spillovers are in general unidirectional from more advanced major international markets to the Chinese markets. However, split-sample analysis suggests that there is also evidence of bi-directional return spillovers after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find that there are no one-period lagged return spillover effects from the three advanced markets to the Chinese markets, except for Taiwan. Finally, Mainland China’s two stock markets are not affected by contemporaneous nor delayed “bad news”.     

Return spillover analysis across central bank digital currency attention and cryptocurrency markets

Many central banks have now developed their digital currencies in response to the challenges posed by the proliferation of decentralised digital cryptocurrencies. However, little is known about the effects of the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on extant digital cryptocurrencies. This paper, therefore, aims to identify both the time- and frequency-domain spillover effects among cryptocurrency markets and a newly developed central bank digital currencies attention index (CBDCAI) by using two TVP-VAR-based spillover models. Our results demonstrate that CBDC attention significantly impacts cryptocurrency markets. Also, most investors in cryptocurrency markets are more likely to trade in the short term. The results of this study contribute to helping investors and investment institutions effectively avoid investment risks, reduce losses, and predict the return of some cryptocurrencies. Also help policymakers better understand the impact of markets and policies, and provide a reference for them to formulate policies.     

Idiosyncratic return volatility and the role of firm fundamentals: A cross-country analysis

We investigate the relation between fundamental idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns idiosyncratic volatility using data from 56 countries. We find a strong positive relation between fundamental idiosyncratic volatility and idiosyncratic volatility of returns. This association, however, seems to be entirely concentrated in the developed economies, and we find no effect in the emerging markets. Specifically, fundamental idiosyncratic volatility does not lead to more idiosyncratic return volatility in countries with poor legal institutions and weak shareholder protection laws.     

The Best of Both Worlds: Accessing Emerging Economies via Developed Markets

A growing body of evidence suggests that the benefits of international diversification via developed markets have declined dramatically. While emerging markets still offer diversification opportunities, their public equity indices capture only a fraction of emerging countries' economic activity. We propose a diversification approach that exploits the global connectedness of developed countries to gain exposure to emerging countries' overall economies rather than their shallow equity markets. In doing so, we demonstrate that developed markets still offer substantial diversification benefits beyond those available through equity indices. Our results suggest that relying on equity indices to assess diversification benefits understates diversification gains.     

Return and Volatility Spillovers and Cojump Behavior Between the U.S. and Korean Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

In this study, we examine return spillover, volatility transmission, and cojump behavior between the U.S. and Korean stock markets. In particular, we focus on cojump behavior between the two markets in order to explain the transmission of unexpected shocks. We find that the U.S. stock market causes return spillover effects in the Korean stock market, and there is significant volatility transmission between the two markets. Importantly, we find a stronger association in size, as compared with intensity, of cojumps between the U.S. and Korean stock markets, particularly during the recent financial crisis.     

Financial globalization and stock market risk

This paper examines stock market volatility measured by either “beta-volatility” or by the standard deviation of stock returns over 1995-2007. In our dynamic panel data framework, after controlling for size, turnover, and real output growth, we find some support to increases in financial integration reducing total stock return volatility for representative emerging markets, with almost no impact for industrial economies. Allowing for feedback effects from stock volatility to stock turnover, we obtain a richer interpretation for the broadening of investor basis hypothesis: more integrated financial markets leads to lower stock volatility, yet these are not so strong as found previously and are not accompanied by more turnover.     

Illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in equity markets during and after the global financial crisis: An MEM approach

Even though the volatility spillover effects in global equity markets have been documented extensively, the transmission of illiquidity across national borders has not. In this paper, we propose a multiplicative error model (MEM) for the dynamics of illiquidity. We empirically study the illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in eight developed equity markets during and after the recent financial crisis. We find that equity markets are interdependent, both in terms of volatility and illiquidity. Most markets show an increase in volatility and illiquidity spillover effects during the crisis. Furthermore, we find volatility and illiquidity transmission are highly relevant. Illiquidity is a more important channel than volatility in propagating the shocks in equity markets. Our results show an overall crucial role for illiquidity in US markets in influencing other equity markets' illiquidity and volatility. These findings are of importance for policy makers as well as institutional and private investors.     

Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US,Japan, and Germany

We analyzed the return and volatility spillover between the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the crude oil market, and the stock market by employing two empirical methods for connectedness: the time-domain approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the method based on frequency dynamics developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018). We find that the return spillover mainly occurs in the short term; however, the volatility spillover mainly occurs in the long term. From the moving window analysis results, the impact of COVID-19 created an unprecedented level of risk, such as plummeting oil prices and triggering the US stock market circuit breaker four times, which caused investors to suffer heavy losses in a short period. Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 on the volatility of the oil and stock markets exceeds that caused by the 2008 global financial crisis, and continues to have an effect. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets is uncertain in both the short and long terms. Our research provides some urgent and prominent insights to help investors and policymakers avoid the risks in the crude oil and stock markets because of the COVID-19 pandemic and reestablish economic development policy strategies.     

2011年全球经济与市场回顾和2012年展望

2011年,受欧洲主权债务危机不断蔓延的影响,发达国家经济复苏缓慢并呈现逐步分化趋势,新兴市场国家作为全球经济复苏主引擎的作用仍然突出,但也面临着经济增长趋缓的困扰。2012年,由于欧债危机隐患未除、全球金融系统依然脆弱以及发达国家自身结构性问题远未解决,全球经济方向将面临较大不确定性。未来新兴市场经济体有望继续充当全球经济复苏的主要动力,但增速将趋于放缓。发达经济体将维持宽松的货币政策,并将迫于财政赤字压力采取财政紧缩措施,而新兴经济体预计将实施相对稳健的货币政策与较为宽松的财政政策,以应对通货膨胀和经济增速趋缓的双重压力。     

波动溢出网络视角的金融风险传染研究

当前各类经济风险交叉关联,金融系统的风险溢出效应备受关注,为刻画我国金融系统性风险传染的路径特征,本文从波动溢出网络的视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染机制。首先使用广义动态因子模型对收益波动的共同波动率成分和特质性波动率成分进行区分。然后,根据货币市场、资本市场、大宗商品交易市场、外汇市场、房地产市场和黄金市场之间的特质性波动溢出效应,利用基于TVP-VAR模型的方差分解溢出指数分析金融系统波动溢出的动态联动性和风险传递机制。在分析方向性波动溢出效应的基础上,采用方差分解网络方法构建起信息溢出复杂网络,从网络视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染特征。实证研究发现,房地产市场和外汇市场的净溢出效应绝对值相较于其他市场更大,其受其他市场风险冲击的影响强于对外风险溢出效应,而股票市场的单向对外风险溢出效应强度最大。在波动溢出的基础上,进一步考虑股市波动率指数与其他市场波动率指数进行投资组合的资产配置权重,计算了波动率指数投资组合的最优组合权重和对冲策略。研究结论有助于更好地理解我国金融系统的风险传染机制,对监管机构加强宏观审慎监管、投资者规避投资风险具有重要意义。     

美联储政策变化、国际资本流动与宏观经济波动

本文构建包含国际投资者、外资企业和银行流动性冲击的DSGE模型来探究美联储货币政策变动和政策不确定性对我国宏观经济的影响和作用机制。研究发现:(1) 美联储加息会导致我国产出、投资和通货膨胀的下降、汇率贬值、国际资本外流和银行系统流动性紧张。随着金融摩擦程度的增加和银行杠杆率的上升,美联储加息对我国产出、投资和资产价格的负面影响会进一步增强。(2) 美联储货币政策不确定性的增加会直接导致外资企业的投资、劳动需求和产出的下降,并对我国总产出、总投资和资产价格产生明显的负向外溢效应,进一步加剧我国宏观经济的波动。(3)为应对美联储的利率变动,适当限制国际资本流动能有效稳定我国经济波动和改善社会福利,而实施固定汇率和央行盯住美国利率的政策会加大宏观经济的波动,并导致社会福利下降。     

Home Bias in Emerging Bond and Stock Markets

In this paper, we empirically examine sizes and sources of home bias in both bond and equity markets for twenty emerging countries and twenty-two developed countries over the 2001-11 sample period. The average size of home bias in both bond and stock markets is found to be much larger in emerging countries than in developed countries. Using the explanatory variables in two categories of economic development and market performance, we employ dynamic panel data regression models to analyze major sources of home bias. The main results are the following: First, market performance factors generally affect home bias more strongly than do economic development factors. Second, market factors including market return, volatility, and liquidity support various hypotheses under informational asymmetries, such as return chasing, risk aversion, and flight to quality. Third, among macroeconomic factors, it is shown that real gross domestic product growth has negative effects and country leverage has positive effects on a specific home bias, backing up the size-bias and the flight-to-quality hypotheses, respectively. Finally, and perhaps most important in this paper, the effect of bond market performance on equity home bias is found to be significantly stronger than the effect of equity market performance on bond home bias from the market interaction model estimation, suggesting that a policy design needs to begin with increasing bond market efficiency to reduce equity market home bias.