平台经济反垄断研究的热点演进与理论框架 ——基于文献计量方法的分析

平台经济是连接多个用户群体进行信息与资源交换的新型商业模式，近年来其垄断形势愈演愈烈，对现有监管模式和反垄断研究理论提出了新的挑战。文章利用Citespace V科学计量工具，对2003—2022年中国知网数据库中CSSCI来源期刊的平台经济反垄断研究进行知识图谱可视化研究，在探究该领域的研究热点演化路径的基础上，构建了平台经济反垄断的理论框架。研究发现，平台经济反垄断研究主题经历了从传统双边产业反垄断与反垄断法构建，到双边市场特征与相关市场界定问题，到算法、大数据引发的垄断治理困境，再到超级平台形成、“二选一”独占交易协议四个阶段的演变。总的来看，平台经济反垄断理论框架由垄断形成机理、垄断演进趋势和反垄断规制体系三个部分组成。平台经济的规模效应、网络效应和锁定效应三种特征诱致垄断发生，垄断竞争理论、双边市场理论和产业组织理论是这一问题的重要研究视角；在技术与规模驱动下，平台经济呈现“厂商垄断——平台垄断——场域垄断”的主体变迁和“价格垄断——算法垄断——数据垄断”的形式升级；对此，应当构建价格监管、算法规制与数据治理相结合的综合规制体系。     

A note on the diffusion of innovation

The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices.It analyzes the dynamics of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one.     

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB target is set in terms of the year on year growth rate of the euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. Within our empirical framework we find that once area wide information is properly taken into account the contribution of national idiosyncratic developments is negligible.     

基于垂直产品差异的技术扩散分析

针对网络外部性和产品差异程度在新产品技术扩散中的作用,采用垂直产品差异分析框架和动态分析方法,分析了在双寡头垄断环境中新技术在不同条件下的扩散路径。研究结果表明:当产品差异-外部性系数(即网络外部性强度和产品差异程度之比)较小时,新技术总能够在市场中成功生存,特别是当消费者偏好差异不是很大时,新技术最终能够垄断整个市场;当该系数较大时,只有当新技术期初的网络规模超越了一定阀值后,它才能在市场中成功扩散。厂商可根据产品差异-外部性系数、期初网络规模铺设成本及新技术在市场中生存的期限等因素选择最佳的新技术扩散路径。     

明星VS非明星： 分析师评级调整与信息属性

本文以2001—2010年明星及非明星分析师对中国A股上市公司的4 643次评级调整为样本，研究不同分析师在提供公司特质信息及行业层面信息方面是否存在差异。结果表明：（1）明星分析师向市场提供了更多公司特质信息，而在行业信息层面，两类分析师并无区别；（2）专注程度越高，明星分析师与市场反应中公司特质信息成分的正向关系越显著，表明专注程度是其挖掘更多公司特质信息的一个重要因素。在进一步的研究中，本文对明星分析师的“名气”假说进行了排除，同时考察了牛市、熊市对两类分析师提供信息属性的影响。本文的结论既丰富了分析师报告信息属性的文献，对理解明星分析师的荐股评级行为也具有一定的积极意义。     

分析师的估值模型会影响评级的信息含量吗?

本文基于2014—2018年发布的沪深两市A股上市公司深度研究报告,考察了分析师报告中关于估值方法的描述,探究分析师估值模型的选择是否会对其投资意见的信息含量产生影响。研究发现,分析师采用绝对估值模型能够提高评级调整的市场反应,具有一定的增量价值。进一步分组检验发现,在公司成长性较高、不确定性较大、券商实力较弱、分析师之间的竞争程度较高的情况下,使用绝对估值模型对于提高分析师评级调整的信息含量作用更大。本文的研究结论对于理解分析师估值过程的价值和有效性以及分析师研究报告信息含量的影响因素具有重要意义,并为投资者如何使用和评价分析师研究报告提供了一定的参考。     

股票转让方式与极端收益风险——兼论新三板市场引入做市转让制度的经济后果

在极端收益风险形成机理的现有研究中,交易环节是其逻辑链条中缺失的一环;对于做市转让制度的实施效果,现有实证研究也普遍忽视了其对极端收益风险的影响.文章从交易环节入手,提出了一个解释极端收益风险形成机理的新假说,并以新三板市场引入做市转让制度为契机,实证考察了股票转让方式和极端收益风险之间的关系.研究发现:(1)与实施协议转让的股票相比,实施做市转让的股票极端收益风险显著较低,但更多的做市商并未带来显著更低的极端收益风险;(2)做市转让方式对股价暴涨风险的抑制作用在熊市中较强,对股价暴跌风险的抑制作用则在牛市中较强;(3)股票转让方式对极端收益风险的影响主要通过股票流动性路径起作用,而信息有效性路径会起作用主要是因为信息有效性和股票流动性之间的高相关性.使用处理效应模型来控制自选择偏差的影响,使用不同的极端收益风险度量指标,延长极端收益风险的计算窗口,均不改变上述实证结果.这表明,交易环节是影响极端收益风险的重要因素,做市转让方式的引入有助于降低新三板挂牌公司的极端收益风险.文章对于深入理解极端收益风险形成机理、改善新三板市场交易机制具有重要的意义.     

Technology diffusion theory revisited: a regulation,environment, strategy,technology model for technology activation analysis of mobile ICT

Theory on the diffusion of mobile information and communication technology (ICT) is mainly focused on technology diffusion, while prerequisites to such diffusion are largely disregarded or taken for granted. Moreover, few constructs for the assessment of technology diffusion take into account the inherent link between technology and strategy analysis. This study proposes that analysing what comes prior to diffusion and use of technology – here defined as ‘technology activation’ – is equally important, so as to identify external, not user-related determinants that enable or hinder a value proposition based on the new technology. To fill the existing gap and extend technology diffusion theory upstream, the limitations of the technology–organisation–environment model and of other technology diffusion models are reviewed, together with external strategy analysis models, and an original model is proposed to address four macro-determinants that affect technology activation: Regulation, environment, strategy, technology (REST). The REST model is then applied to the Italian mobile location-based services market, to qualitatively validate its comprehensiveness. Conclusions are drawn on the opportunities to extend the mobile technology diffusion analysis process upstream, and to integrate technology analysis with existing research on strategy analysis, thus providing new momentum to mainstream research on innovation diffusion.     

Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).     

Estimating the geographic diffusion of the videocassette recorder market

The majority of studies concerning diffusion or product growth of consumer durables have treated the U.S. market as a whole and have applied the diffusion model on the assumption that the market exhibits a homogeneous response in its diffusion process. If the market is heterogeneous, however, an aggregate model entails a misspecification problem which could adversely affect the applicability and efficiency of the model. A modeling framework is developed for analyzing the diffusion process in a possibly heterogeneous market. Empirical analysis using data on the videocassette recorder (VCR) market reveals that the modeling framework captures to a fair extent heterogeneous diffusion processes across different regions in the U.S. market. Managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

“钻石模型”视角下战略性新兴产业创新绩效影响因素的实证研究——以新一代信息产业为例

基于对现实和理论的考察,在现有文献与"钻石模型"的基础上,对战略性新兴产业创新绩效的影响因素进行了综合分析。以新一代信息产业为例,利用2010—2014年的相关数据,采用多元回归模型对各因素的具体影响进行实证分析。结果表明:当众多因素共同影响时,新一代信息产业的生产要素、需求多样性、相关产业以及政府等因素对创新绩效具有更为显著的影响,而市场规模、支持产业以及竞争等因素的影响没有通过显著性检验;中国战略性新兴产业具有较高的技术水平与产业相关性,存在巨大的市场发展空间,但也存在创新型人才不足、垄断以及与政府支持脱节等问题。     

新兴市场后发企业逆向创新路径研究

作为一种全新的创新全球化扩散模式,逆向创新理论研究尚处于起步阶段。选取华为公司作为逆向创新研究案例,从技术和市场两大维度探讨其逆向创新发展模式,总结其可以复制推广的经验和做法,并提出新兴市场后发企业逆向创新路径与驱动力模型。在丰富并发展逆向创新理论的同时,也为中国企业特别是后发高科技企业提高创新能力以及加快国际化进程提供了借鉴与启示。     

我国国有企业竞争中立制度框架及其改革路径*

国有企业竞争中立制度的构建是未来深化国有企业改革的必然方向。改革开放以来,中国国有企业一直坚持进行市场导向性改革,高度契合竞争中立宗旨与理念。本文系统梳理了改革开放以来国有企业市场导向性改革脉络,总结目前国有企业竞争中立改革面临的问题。在此基础上,本文构建了我国竞争中立制度框架的体制基础和具体构成。最后,本文提出从深化国有企业改革和扶持民营企业发展两方面来塑造中国国有企业竞争中立改革的制度框架,并根据九大制度安排构建了竞争中立制度改革的路径。现有研究多从法学和贸易视角质性分析竞争中立定义、原则内容和中国应对措施,尚未提出我国竞争中立改革的制度框架和实践路径,本文所建立的国有企业竞争中立制度框架与改革路径对建立中国特色的国有企业制度与社会主义市场经济体系具有一定借鉴意义。     

融券制度与内部人寻租——来自准自然实验的经验证据

内部人寻租一直以来是理论与实务界关心的重点,如何有效抑制内部人寻租行为是资本市场的重大课题。本文以内部人交易度量内部人寻租,分析了融券制度对内部人寻租的影响。研究发现:(1)融券制度对内部人寻租有显著抑制作用,并且融券规模越大,内部人寻租越少。(2)相比于国有企业,非国有企业当中融券制度对内部人寻租的抑制作用更加明显。本文还将内部人交易分方向进行回归,结果显示融券制度对内部人寻租的抑制作用主要体现在卖出方向上。本文进一步分析了融券制度影响内部人寻租的路径,发现“竞争效应”和“信息效应”是融券制度影响内部人寻租的两条重要路径。本文考虑了竞争性解释——分析师关注的作用,发现分析师关注并不能影响本文结论的正确性;本文还利用反面事实推断、倾向得分匹配、反向因果检验等方法,确保实证结论的稳健性。本文的研究结果,丰富了内部人寻租的特征及影响因素研究,有利于市场监管部门加强对内部人寻租行为的控制;扩充了有关融券制度的文献,为卖空制度的推行及完善提供理论依据。     

四十年我国市场化进程的经济学分析*——兼论中国模式与中国经济学的构建

过去40年，我国在坚持社会主义基本经济制度条件下努力让市场机制在资源配置中发挥决定性作用。中国模式的特有内涵决定了我们无法在传统政治经济学逻辑或西方主流制度变迁理论中找到答案，唯有坚持直面现实的分析方法，通过对现象的深入剖析来检验和发展现有理论，推进中国经济学研究范式的创新。本文提出了我国制度变迁方式三阶段转换假说，即一个中央集权型计划经济国家可能成功地向市场经济渐进过渡的现实路径是，由改革之初的供给主导型制度变迁方式逐步向中间扩散型制度变迁方式转变，并随着排他性产权的逐步确立，最终过渡到需求诱致型制度变迁方式，从而完成向社会主义市场经济体制的过渡。这证明了中国改革开放伟大实践为经济学理论的发展提供了前所未有的机遇和挑战，中国模式是中国经济学的创新源泉。     

A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

Market reaction to second-hand news: inside the attention-grabbing hypothesis

This article investigates whether the market reaction to second-hand information is due to price pressure or information dissemination. We use the perspective of attention grabbing to analyse the market reaction to the dissemination of analysts’ recommendations published in print media. This perspective is able to explain the asymmetric market reaction to ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ advice, which is difficult to rationalize within the price pressure hypothesis. We base our empirical analysis on the content of a weekly column in the most important Italian financial newspaper, which publishes past information and analysts’ recommendations on listed companies. Our findings show asymmetric price and volume reactions on the publication day. Contrary to previous evidence, we document a positive relationship between the number of analysts quoted in the column and the price (volume) increase associated with positive recommendations. Because the weekly columns seem to simply attract investors’ attention, with no additional new information, observing a reaction positively related to the column’s salience (proxied by the number of quoted analysts) is natural. In addition, we find that the market reaction is higher when the order size is lower, i.e., when individual investors’ trades constitute a higher fraction of the total trading activity in the market.     

Policy analysis for growth of a new technology product

Three important aspects of the growth of a new technology product are new product diffusion, rise in productivity, and new product management. The authors maintain that these three aspects are interrelated. The study presented in this paper selected a system dynamics framework to address, in a unified fashion, the above-mentioned aspects of growth in the context of the TV industry in India. The study indicates that (a) in conformity to the present trend, new product diffusion should be treated as a multiattribute phenomenon, and a study of causal factors and their relationships hold the key to understanding this phenomenon, (b) contrary to the prevailing belief, new technology may not enhance capital or total productivity, particularly after the end of the major expansion phase of the product life cycle, and (c) new product growth is generally associated with a loss of market share during the major growth phase and an overcapacity at the end of this phase. Various policy tests on the model reveal that in the case of the Indian TV industry, employee skill has the highest leverage in improving company performance in terms of increased market share, increased productivity and profitability figures, and reduced overcapacity.     

Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.     

Experimentation in Markets

We present a model of entry and exit with Bayesian learning and price competition. A new product of initially unknown quality is introduced in the market, and purchases of the product yield information on its true quality. We assume that the performance of the new product is publicly observable. As agents learn from the experiments of others, informational externalities arise.
We determine the Markov Perfect Equilibrium prices and allocations. In a single market, the combination of the informational externalities among the buyers and the strategic pricing by the sellers results in excessive experimentation. If the new product is launched in many distinct markets, the path of sales converges to the efficient path in the limit as the number of markets grows.