共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Oliver MarkleyAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(6):1079-1097
In technological forecasting and futures research on social change, the term wild card (a.k.a. disruptor or STEEP surprise), traditionally refers to a plausible future event that is estimated to have low probability but high impact should it occur.This article introduces:
- 1.
- A Type II Wild Card, defined as having high probability and high impact as seen by experts if present trends continue, but low credibility for non-expert stakeholders of importance.
- 2.
- A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them.
- •
- Research on how to diminish the discounting of Type II phenomena by institutional leaders
- •
- Monitoring of transitions in the perceived credibility of critical Type II STEEP Surprises by thought leaders
- •
- A Snowball Survey of wisdom leaders having multidisciplinary expertise from all walks of life to identify specific Type II possibilities (especially positive ones), they see as having greatest importance
- •
- A Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises for sharing of intelligence on highly probable/highly disruptive events, together with plausible impacts and proactive policies.
2.
Socio-ecological explanations for crowding-out effects from economic field experiments in southern Africa 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bjørn Vollan 《Ecological Economics》2008,67(4):560-573
Economic and psychological literature mentions three conditions under which the crowding-out effect of pro-social behaviour is likely to occur and to crowd out citizens' moral obligations to behave co-operatively. I use a framed field experiment on joint extraction from a common-pool resource (CPR) where the crowding-out effect has already been reported before in combination with the trust game carried out in farming communities of Namibia and South Africa to replicate these conditions. The research design and the cross-cultural setting enable to explicitly control for these effects. The results of the experiments support that the crowding-out effect depends on:
- •
- The nature of the external intervention (controlling vs. supportive external intervention)
- •
- The degree of participants self-determination (high vs. low self-determination in the group)
- •
- A society's norms of trust and reciprocity (high vs. low trust within the society)
3.
We develop a dynamic model of democratic politics in which both potential office holders and the electorate have heterogeneous ideologies. Voters have incomplete information about candidate ideologies, so they must use information from previous positions taken in office to make informed re-election decisions. We characterize the effects of term limits on the evolution over time of the ideological positions taken by office holders and derive the implications for voter choice and welfare. Contributions of our paper include:
- •
- We detail how pork provision by more senior incumbents interacts with term limits to affect electoral outcomes. Pork provision—transfers of resources from districts with junior legislators to districts with more senior legislators—induces voters to be more forgiving of extreme location by incumbents, especially incumbents in small or poor districts. Pork provision can explain why re-election probabilities in Congress exceed those for governors.
- -
- Term limits reduce voter welfare when all that matters are the ideological positions taken by the office holder.
- -
- Term limits may be advantageous when senior incumbents can extract benefits for their constituencies at the expense of districts with more junior representatives. Large or rich districts especially value term limits when there is substantial pork provision.
- •
- We characterize the welfare of all voters, not just the median voter.
4.
Literature-Related Discovery (LRD): Introduction and background 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ronald N. Kostoff Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2008,75(2):165-185
Discovery in science is the generation of novel, interesting, plausible, and intelligible knowledge about the objects of study. Literature-related discovery (LRD) is the linking of two or more literature concepts that have heretofore not been linked (i.e., disjoint), in order to produce novel, interesting, plausible, and intelligible knowledge (i.e., potential discovery). LRD has two main components that differ in their methodological approach to discovery:
- •
- Literature-based discovery (LBD) produces potential discovery through analysis of the technical literature alone.
- •
- Literature-assisted discovery (LAD) produces potential discovery through both analysis of the technical literature and use of selected authors of that literature. These authors generate potential discovery as proposers, workshop/panel participants, or in other active roles.
- •
- the burgeoning technical literature contains a very large pool of technical concepts in myriad technical areas;
- •
- researchers spend full time trying to cover the literature in their own research fields and are relatively unfamiliar with research in other especially disparate fields of research;
- •
- the large number of technical concepts (and disparate technical concepts) means that many combinations of especially disparate technical concepts exist
- •
- by the laws of probability, some of these combinations will produce novel, interesting, plausible, and intelligible knowledge about the objects of study.
- 1.
- Recipients of solicitation announcements (other solicitations similar to BAA, journal Special Issue calls for papers, etc),
- 2.
- Participants in Workshops, Advisory Panels, Review Panels, Roadmaps, and War Games,
- 3.
- Points of Contact for Field Science Advisors, Foreign Field Offices, Program Officer site visits, and potential transitions.
5.
Arnold Tukker Evgueni Poliakov Troy Hawkins José M. Rueda-Cantuche Stephan Moll Maaike Bouwmeester 《Ecological Economics》2009,68(7):1928-1937
This paper presents the strategy for a large EU-funded Integrated Project: EXIOPOL (“A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis”), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) input-output (IO) analysis. The project has three principal objectives:
- (a)
- to synthesize and further develop estimates of the external costs of key environmental impacts for Europe;
- (b)
- to develop an EE IO framework for the EU-27 in a global context, including as many of these estimates as possible, to allow for the estimation of environmental impacts (expressed as LCA themes, material requirement indicators, ecological footprints or external costs) of the activities of different economic sectors, final consumption activities and resource consumption;
- (c)
- to apply the results of the work to external costs and EE I-O for illustrative policy questions.
6.
Malte Schwoon 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2006,16(4):435-472
Supply security and environmental concerns associated with oil call for an introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. To date, scenario studies of infrastructure build-up and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are driven by cost estimates and technological feasibility assumptions, indicating that there is a “chicken and egg problem”: Car producers do not offer FCVs as long as there are no hydrogen filling stations, and infrastructure will not be set up unless there is a significant number of FCVs on the road. This diffusion barrier is often used as an argument for a major (public) infrastructure program, neglecting the fact that the automobile market is highly competitive and car producers, consumers, and filling station operators form an interdependent dynamic system, where taxes influence technology choice. In this paper, an agent-based model is used that captures the main interdependencies to simulate possible diffusion paths of FCVs. The results suggest that a tax on conventional cars can successfully promote diffusion even without a major infrastructure program. However, consumers and individual producers are affected differently by the tax, indicating that differently strong resistance towards such a policy can be anticipated. Moreover, there is evidence that some producers might benefit from cooperation with filling station operators to generate a faster build-up of infrastructure.
相似文献
Malte SchwoonEmail: Phone: +49-40-428384406Fax: +49-40-428387009 |
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Heebyung Koh Author Vitae Christopher L. Magee Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2008,75(6):735-758
This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:
- ?
- Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.
- ?
- Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.
- ?
- More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.
13.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system with zero tailpipe emissions. This requires the construction of a network of fuel stations, a long-term, expensive and highly uncertain investment. We contribute to the literature by including a knock-out barrier option in an n-fold compound real option model to take account of immediate project failure in a multi-stage sequential investment project. Our model allows to explicitly incorporate the default possibility of large-scale energy infrastructure projects. In our case study of hydrogen infrastructure development, we find that even for the least conservative valuation method no profitable business case can be made for the development of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation mode. However, we do provide some suggestive scenarios that plausible tax schedules can be designed to overcome the starting problems for hydrogen infrastructure development. 相似文献
14.
Reyer Gerlagh Inge van den Bijgaart Hans Nijland Thomas Michielsen 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2018,69(1):103-134
To what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars? We construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars, and then test the model empirically. Our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data. First, we use a large database of vehicle-specific taxes in 15 EU countries over 2001–2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels, and separately, for the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) sensitivity of these taxes. We find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars. We then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of the new car fleet. The increased \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)-sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emission intensity of the average new car by 1.3 %, partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel-fuelled cars by 6.5 percentage points. Higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars, but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of (more fuel efficient) diesel cars; higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect. 相似文献
15.
Floris J. Huétink 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(8):1270-1281
Within the Dutch transition policy framework, the transition to hydrogen-based transport is seen as a promising option towards a sustainable transport system. One aspect of such transition processes that is emphasized in transition management is learning about user behaviour and preferences. However, while earlier research on sustainable mobility acknowledges the importance of refuelling infrastructure, the question of how to unroll such an infrastructure and the role of user practices and user behaviour largely remains unanswered. In this paper we present an agent-based model to study the process of development from niche to market for hydrogen vehicles. We thereby focus on the role of users in this process and support our model by empirical data. Within this model the effects of different strategies for hydrogen infrastructure development on hydrogen vehicle fleet penetration are studied. More specifically, diffusion patterns for hydrogen vehicles are created through the interactions of consumers, refuelling stations and technological learning. The main result is that social network effects do influence the technological trajectory of hydrogen vehicles and thus should be taken into account by infrastructure developers and policymakers. 相似文献
16.
从专利、车型和销量着手,将中国电动汽车发展进程大体划分为3个阶段,即纯电动汽车阶段、混合动力汽车和燃料电池汽车同步发展中纯、电动汽车和混合动力汽车竞相发展阶段、以纯电动汽车为主导的发展阶段。每一阶段行动者网络不同,关键行动者也不尽相同。基于行动者网络理论对中国电动汽车技术创新演进过程进行研究,得到以下结论:①中国电动汽车技术创新行动者网络主体和结构的改变影响着电动汽车相关技术创新的选择与发展;②非人类行动者在电动汽车技术创新演进过程中发挥着重要作用;③中国电动汽车技术创新演进是不同时期行动者网络成员共同作用的结果。 相似文献
17.
Christopher L. Magee Tessaleno C. DevezasAuthor vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(8):1365-1378
This paper reviews a large number of approaches that have been used for considering technologically driven profound societal change. We agree with Vinge's suggestion for naming events that are “capable of rupturing the fabric of human history” (or leading to profound societal changes) as a “singularity”. This is a useful terminology especially since a mathematically rigorous singularity seems impossible for technological and related societal change. The overview of previous work is done within the context of a broader look at the role of technological change within human history. The review shows that a wide variety of methods have been used and almost all point to singularities in the present century particularly in the middle of the century. The diversity of the methods is reassuring about the potential robustness of these predictions. However, the subjectivity of labeling events as singularities (even well studied past events) is a concern about all of the methods and thus one must carefully pause when relying in any way on these predictions. The general lack of empirical research in this area is also a concern.Quantitative considerations (by proponents and opponents) about past singularities or future singularities often confound two types of metrics. The first type is essentially related to diffusion of technologies (or bundles of technologies) where the logistic curve is empirically well established as the proper time dependence. The second type of metric is for technological capability where hyper-exponentials are empirically well established for their time dependence. In this paper, we consider two past singularities (arguably with important enough social change to qualify) in which the basic metric is alternatively of one type or another. The globalization occurring under Portuguese leadership of maritime empire building and naval technological progress is characterized by a metric describing diffusion. The revolution in time keeping, on the other hand, is characterized by a technological capability metric. For these two cases (and thus robust to the choice of metric type), we find that:
•
People undergoing profound technologically-driven societal change do not sense a singularity. •
The societal impacts depend in complicated ways on human needs, institutional variables and other more uncertain factors and thus are particularly hard to project; •
The societal impact is apparently not determined by the rate of progress on either type of metric or by projections to mathematical points with either kind of metric. This finding supports the existing concept that social change due to technology is a more holistic phenomenon than can be characterized by any technical metric.
18.
Maik T. Schneider Burkhard Schade Hariolf Grupp 《Technology Analysis & Strategic Management》2004,16(2):147-172
Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure. 相似文献
19.
Maik T. Schneider Burkhard Schade Hariolf Grupp 《Technology Analysis & Strategic Management》2013,25(2):147-172
Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers’ strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure. 相似文献
20.
B. van Bree Author Vitae Author Vitae G.J. Kramer Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(4):529-540
Alternative vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen hold the potential to solve a number of challenges that relate to automobile use, such as climate change, deterioration of local air quality, security of energy supply, and high fuel prices. This article addresses the question as to how a transition to vehicles powered by hydrogen or electricity could take place. Recognizing that transitions result from joint development of technology and society, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted. The perspective is used to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship. Building on the analysis, two sets of scenarios for a transition to battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles are identified. In one set of scenarios, tightening emissions regulation stimulates carmakers to scale up experiments with alternative vehicles, moving them into the commercialization phase. In the other set, rising fuel prices prompt carmakers to first extend their current product line-up with plug-in versions, and later with battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. The two scenarios have different implications for the actors involved and for the requisite supporting infrastructure. 相似文献