演化经济学的精髓:从确定性到不确定性

西方经济学在近百年中新学说、新理论层出不穷，国内在引进介绍这些新学说时只重视内容的评价，而忽视从整个西方经济学方法论的演变方面的探讨。对方法论的探讨有几种说法，如果对演化经济学方法论的演化过程进行考察，我们会发现其精髓即是从确定性到不确定性，这条主线贯穿西方主流经济学的始终。     

浅谈财务会计研究的历史轨迹

<正>知古可以鉴今,面对目前财务会计的诸多复杂问题,对财务会计研究历史轨迹的清晰认识,有助于探求问题的真相,从而发现解决问题的最优途径。本文从财务会计研究的方法论人手,以研究内容和研究方法两条线索探讨财务会计研究的历史脉络,以期为现实问题的研究奠定基础。一、财务会计研究的方法论财务会计研究的方法论是一个复合的概念,它由财务会计研究和方法论两部分组成。(一)财务会计研究     

西方福利经济学发展浅探

西方福利经济学是建立社会保障制度的理论基础，它的发展经历了旧福利经济学和新福利经济学两个时期，探讨福利经济学发展的线索，有助于加深对这一问题的了解，可以为我国目前正在进行的社会保障改革提供依据。     

好的科斯定理和好的法律经济学

法律经济学是以经济学的方法来研究法律问题,因此不可避免地受到经济学方法论的影响。而流行的经济学方法论却容易催生一种被科斯称为"黑板经济学"的学问。这种影响已经扩散和蔓延至法律经济学。本文从区分两个版本的科斯定理出发,尝试梳理不同经济学方法论的影响;并通过分析法学和经济学的不同之处,来重构法律经济学的发展道路。本文的目的在于倡议一种好的法律经济学,一种结合经济学的抽象分析工具和法学基于经验主义的案例分析传统的法律经济学。     

从长期看，我们又“活”了!

对人类行为的关注一直是经济学的传统，这一传统随着近年来人们围绕行为经济学展开的论争而得到发扬光大，并正在成为未来经济学发展的一个方向。然而，笔者以为，近来大多数文献对行为经济学的关注并未真正触及其要害，特别是未能准确揭示它所包含的经济学范式以及方法论方面的革命意义。     

不确定性--一个难以跨越的经济学问题

无论在理论科学还是在经济学方面,研究方法都有了突出发展.动态经济分析方法的形成,时间被引入经济分析.不确定性仍是经济学一个难以跨越的问题,正确把握不确定性的内涵,规避现代社会的不确定性风险,使之发展成为一场方法论的深刻革命.     

禅解经济学——佛学视域下的经济学反思和解读

本文通过对经济学做一个简单的本体论、方法论和价值论的解释浔找佛学在这三者与经济学的不同点，反思和解读一下当前我国教学科研中的两大经济学流派。     

商业银行在公司治理中的作用

国企改革和国有商业银行的改革一直是我围经济改革中的两条主要线索。改革的目标是使二者都成为市场中独立自主经营的主体，形成完善的治理机制。     

美联储加息:盗亦有道的“强盗逻辑”

美联储的货币政策基本贯穿的是不顾其他新兴国家的“强盗逻辑”,这种逻辑施行了50年的时间,可见“盗亦有道”.从长周期来看,有“道”的强盗逻辑有两条主要线索. 第一条线索是保持美元世界第一货币的地位,确保铸币税.     

从经济学方法论的视角看西方主流经济学的演变与缺陷

经济学方法论对经济学的发展、演变有着重要的影响,在某些情况下甚至主导着经济学理论体系的发展方向。本文从经济学方法论的角度展示了当今处于正统主流地位的新古典综合派经济学包括其后的新凯恩斯主义经济学体系的形成和演变过程,同样也从经济学方法论的角度分析了这个经济学理论体系的缺陷。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…