Trade Protection During the Crisis: Does it Deter Foreign Direct Investment?

This paper looks empirically at the implications that protectionist measures implemented during the current crisis may have had for a country’s ability to attract foreign direct investment. The research utilises data on such measures that are available from Global Trade Alert, combined with bilateral FDI data between OECD countries and a large number of partner countries for 2006 to 2009. This allows us to examine the short‐run effect that protectionist measures may have had on bilateral FDI flows. The verdict from this analysis is clear: a country that implements new protectionist measures may expect that this may result in lower foreign direct investment inflows into the economy. The point estimates from our preferred specifications suggest that, depending on the empirical model, the implementation of a trade protection measure is associated with about 40 to 80 per cent lower FDI inflows. Trade protection does not appear to have any implications for the country’s FDI outflows, however. The negative effect on FDI inflows does not appear to be due to direct investment measures but rather to actions related to intellectual property rights protection and other more trade‐related measures.     

Trade Policy Making in a Small Island Economy: The WTO Review of the Maldives

The purpose of this paper is to examine trade policy regime and trade‐related development issues in the Maldives on the basis of the Trade Policy Review Maldives 2003 of the WTO. The key theme of the paper is that, given the narrow resource base and small domestic market, openness to foreign trade and investment remains the ‘natural’ policy choice for a small developing economy like the Maldives. Since the late 1980s, the Maldivian government has made considerable progress in implementing policy reforms driven by this conviction. However, the reform process is far from complete. High import tariffs maintained predominantly on revenue considerations, a large direct role played by the public sector in foreign trade and some key sectors of the economy, lack of transparency in duty concessions and other investment incentives, failure to incorporate environmental concerns as part of the national development policy, and delays in meeting reform commitments under the WTO are among the key items of the unfinished reform agenda.     

Trade,investment, and labor: The case of Indonesia

Rapid industrialization and urbanization spurred on by a surge in foreign investment is often considered typical of newly industrializing countries (NICs). But in Indonesia, the combination of late development and an authoritarian state has created a particularly potent mix, one that has raised more questions than usual about the effects of growth, trade, and investment on labor conditions and local standards of living. The basic motives of foreign direct investment (FDI) are said to create a pattern that is inherently ripe for exploitation, since the capital, technology and market access all rest with the foreign investor. The author uses the Indonesian case to explore factors that might reduce exploitation. While conceding that foreign investment is likely to affect labor conditions in the host economy, especially in times of rapid growth, she cautions against presuming that the consequences will be mainly negative with respect to the living standards and basic human rights of the local population.     

外商直接投资与对外贸易相互关系的实证研究

中国2001年加入世界贸易组织以后,外商直接投资和对外贸易都获得了快速的发展,对促进中国经济的飞速发展起到了巨大的推动作用。本文主要探讨2001-2010年外商直接投资与对外贸易的关系,发现进出口贸易额和外商直接投资不存在长期的稳定关系,但是中国的出口贸易额和外商直接投资存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,并且这种双向关系是互补的,进口贸易额和外商直接投资可能存在一定正向关系,但是这种关系是不显著的。     

Trade in Services and TFP: The Role of Regulation

What determines total factor productivity (TFP) growth in services: is it services trade or services–trade regulation? To respond to this question, we use four indicators of international trade in services since 1990 to 2005, namely foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stock, services imports, domestic sales of foreign affiliates (FATS) and FDI inflows, to examine what type of services trade forms a direct determinant. Subsequently, we analyse what type of sector‐specific regulation has played an inhibiting effect on services TFP growth. Such analysis contrasts with former studies in which mainly factor inputs and economy‐wide regulation are used to explain services TFP. This paper provides evidence that neither trade nor entry barriers are robust determinants to explain cross‐country differences. Instead, regulations on operational procedures affecting the variables costs structure of the firm seem to play a more important role in explaining TFP growth between countries, particularly in combination with information and communication technology (ICT) capital.     

新时期内外贸一体化发展策略研究

内贸和外贸都是一国经济发展的重要动力,二者具有相互支撑、相互促进的作用。长期以来,中国一直实行内贸和外贸两条线管理模式,已经无法满足市场经济和贸易发展的客观要求。在当前全球经济下行贸易摩擦加剧、内外贸都面临着转型、出口消费投资在拉动经济增长中需要进一步协调配合的情况下,必须通过着力打造更加自由便利的国内营商环境、加快构建全国统一大市场大流通体系、大力发展跨境电子商务、扩大服务贸易规模提升发展水平等举措,切实推动中国内外贸一体化发展,为经济增长注入新活力。     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

基于企业性质的贸易顺差与贸易摩擦分析

随着我国贸易顺差的不断上升和贸易摩擦案件的频发,贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的问题引起了广泛的关注。通过理论分析和实证分析的方法,本文从企业性质的角度研究了我国贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的形成原因及其相互关系,研究表明内需不足、人民币估值过低并不是我国贸易顺差形成的原因,而是大额贸易顺差所产生的结果;我国贸易顺差的形成是外商直接投资企业推动的国际分工体系深化的结果,与企业性质存在着直接的联系。     

RMB Appreciation in 2008

At the beginning of 2007, both foreign investment banks and domestic commercial banks all thought that last year＇s RMB appreciation would grow between 4 to 5 percent; however the realization of a 6.77 percent increase has surprised everyone. The RMB has appreciated much faster than expected, keeping pace with the rise of China＇s foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves.     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review, 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2007. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey’s trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy under the headings of measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper notes that the formation of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union has contributed to a significant increase in the contestability of domestic markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade policy as well as by liberalising market access. But free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and the EU could still not be established mainly because of non‐tariff barriers and in particular because of the various problems faced in the elimination of technical barriers to trade (TBT). The final section of the paper discusses first the role of standards and conformity assessment in general terms and thereafter evaluates critically the Turkish approach to elimination of TBTs.     

2018 WTO Trade Policy Review of Malaysia

This paper presents an academic analysis and review of the recently completed WTO Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Malaysia, 2018. This includes suggesting policies that can help to promote Malaysia's international competitiveness. We show that the sharp decline in commodity prices that started in 2014 contributed in narrowing Malaysia's trade balance and current account balance as a share of GDP. The faster decline of exports as a share of GDP compared to imports accounted for most of the substantial reduction. Further, the collapse of commodity prices was accompanied by a sharp depreciation of Ringgit Malaysia. We also show that Malaysia is losing international attractiveness in terms of FDI inflows relative to its economic size. This is evidenced by the downward trend in Malaysia's FDI performance index since 1992. Further, international tourism has fallen on average since 2014, due largely to a drop in tourist arrivals from Singapore. Policymakers should introduce policies to enhance international competitiveness, such as reforming the education system to produce skilled workers and reducing reliance on low‐skilled foreign workers.     

What Do Malaysian Firms Seek in Vietnam?

The article investigates the motives undergirding the investment of Malaysian firms in Vietnam. It argues that a sizeable portion of Malaysian firms are market seekers exploiting Vietnam’s large, young, and growing domestic market, and natural resource seekers. The article also argues that some of the firms are strategic asset seekers as they collaborate with politically well-connected Vietnamese firms to further their long-term commercial interests. Only a small percentage of Malaysian firms identify themselves as efficiency seekers, which highlights the low organizational and technical abilities of Malaysia’s manufacturing sector.     

Malaysia – Trade Policy Review 2006

The Trade Policy Review (TPR) is an important document for small open economies like Malaysia. It provides an outsider perspective of its trade policies and implementation. In this paper we provide an update of the Malaysian economy emphasising the degree of competitiveness vis‐à‐vis other Asian counterparts. We also discuss the issue of regional and bilateral trading agreements involving Malaysia with a focus on the services sector. Finally, we briefly consider the issue of tariff protection – an issue raised by many commentators of the TPR.     

我国对外直接投资与对外贸易的关系——基于变参数模型的分析

选取我国1980—2009年的数据,建立了对外直接投资与对外贸易之间的变参数模型。实证结果表明,对外贸易是对外直接投资的原因,对外直接投资不是对外贸易的原因;而且在不同的时期对外贸易与对外直接投资之间既有替代关系又有互补关系。     

Does the Quality of Investment Protection Affect FDI Flows to Developing Countries? Evidence from Latin America

Studies on the impact of international investment agreements (IIAs), including bilateral investment treaties (BITs), on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been inconclusive. This paper contributes to the debate about the effectiveness of IIAs using an original database that differentiates between investment agreements according to the quality of investor protection, and which covers a wide variety of trade and investment agreements signed and ratified in the Americas. We find evidence that in the least likely case of south–south FDI flows, high‐quality international investment treaties have a demonstrable effect on foreign direct investment inflows. Moreover, international investment agreements appear to be most effective in a context of deeper economic integration. That is, they work better when they provide higher quality protection to investors and when they are combined with other preferential economic integration agreements, such as trade agreements.     

外国直接投资与双边贸易关系中的国别差异

外国直接投资对国际贸易的影响一直是学术界普遍关注的问题。本文采用引力模型,对14个主要投资国1984年至2004年对华投资与双边贸易的关系进行了实证分析,发现我国引进的外国直接投资总体上促进了贸易的增长,但是各国直接投资对双边贸易的影响却有着明显差异。日本、美国、韩国、德国、我国台湾地区和我国香港地区的外国直接投资是贸易促进型的,我国澳门地区、马来西亚、加拿大、法国、澳大利亚、荷兰、英国和新加坡的外国直接投资是贸易替代型的。     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

Potential FDI causing large distortions in domestic production

When a foreign firm enters a domestic market, either via exports or through foreign direct investment (FDI), one factor determining the most favourable entrance mode is the profitability of the market, which may not be directly observed by the foreign firm. If the domestic trade protection policy is within a certain range that causes the foreign entrant's decision to swing between the two entry modes, the final choice will depend on the foreign firm's belief about the profitability. In such a situation, a domestic incumbent firm wishing to prevent FDI will heavily distort its production downward to convince the foreign competitor that the market is not profitable. When making trade policy, such strategic behaviour on the part of the domestic firm should be taken into account.     

Bilateral ‘WTO‐Plus’ Free Trade Agreements: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Singapore 2004

The World Trade Organisation's 2004 Trade Policy Review of Singapore (WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004) depicts the small and outward‐oriented economy as one of the most open countries to international trade and investment. The review highlights the benefits of the outward‐oriented strategy that has enabled the Singapore economy to weather recent external shocks such as the Asian financial crisis to the SARS and to the recent unfavourable conditions in the Middle East. In particular, the report commended Singapore's efforts on its liberalisation of the services sector and its economic benefits to consumers and global trade. However, the WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004 highlights several key areas of concerns: (a) the commitment to multilateral agreements with the rising number of bilateral free trade agreements signed by Singapore and (b) the lack of growth of total factor productivity, a key indicator for long‐run efficiency of the economy. The paper addresses the above key concerns raised in the WTO's TPR of Singapore in terms of its commitment to global trade in terms of WTO‐plus bilateral FTAs, which intends to support a multilateral trading system, and its overall industrial strategies to raise its competitiveness.