政府创新补贴对中国工业自有研发支出的影响研究 ——基于空间计量模型

从空间关联视角再审视政府创新补贴的效应,并基于2001—2017年我国省际面板数据,运用空间面板模型分析了政府创新补贴对中国工业自有研发支出的影响。结果表明,政府创新补贴显著激励了本省市工业自有研发支出,同时,也正向影响相邻省市工业自有研发支出。在控制了内生性问题后,该结论依然成立。另外,在不同所有制和创新水平下,政府创新补贴对工业自有研发支出的空间影响效果存在差异。根据研究结论,本文提出加大政府创新补贴力度并充分考虑溢出效应、融合政府激励和市场驱动以及营造支持成功创新的环境等4项政策建议。     

Temporary work and neoliberal government policy: evidence from British Columbia,Canada

We examine the impact of government policy on the incidence of temporary work by analysing the case of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The analysis is based upon the Canadian Labour Force Survey 1997–2004; temporary work is defined as work that is not expected to last for more than 6 months and includes seasonal, fixed‐term, casual, and temporary help agency work. A case study of BC provides a valuable opportunity to assess the impacts of neoliberal government policy, designed to increase labour market flexibility, on the extent of temporary work because we are able to compare labour market trends in BC both before and after the reforms introduced in 2001 and to compare BC with other provinces in Canada that were not subject to such large changes in their policy environments. We find that the shift to neoliberal policies in BC led to significant increases in the likelihood of workers finding themselves in temporary employment. We also find that the likelihood of being a temporary worker in BC in the post‐policy change period increases relative to all other provinces over the same period. Taken together, these results indicate that government policy is a key determinant of the level of temporary work. As such, the level of temporary work should be seen as a policy‐sensitive variable, rather than as a phenomenon determined solely by the exogenous forces of globalization and technological change.     

Inclusive healthcare and the political settlement in Cambodia

Over the past 15 years Cambodia has made significant strides in expanding effective access to free healthcare for the poor, thanks largely to ‘Health Equity Funds’ (HEFs), a multi-stakeholder health-financing mechanism. HEF operators have helped expand access, incentivise health staff, and lobby on behalf of poor patients. However, despite their successes, they have been unable convincingly to address some of the deeper-seated problems of the Cambodian health system, such as under-resourced facilities, underpaid, poorly qualified staff and a burgeoning private sector. This paper explains this state of affairs as a product of Cambodia's ‘political settlement’, in which relatively successful multi-stakeholder initiatives exist as ‘islands of effectiveness’ in a sea of rent-seeking and patronage. While such islands may currently be the best solution available for the poor, the deeper problems are unlikely to be solved without a shift in the political settlement itself.     

Central bankers in government appointed committees

I study the policy choices of members of a central bank committee, who are appointed by the government. Central bankers balance their desire to protect the Central Bank's reputation against their interest to be reappointed. Committees can be more successful than single central bankers at reducing inflation and insulating policy from government pressures. These gains are only achieved if the turnover rate of committee members is low and the committee is small. The former is associated with a low risk of being replaced for not supporting the government's preferred policy. The latter, meanwhile, implies high probability that a single vote affects policy, making any individual member more weary of potentially affecting the Central Bank's reputation through his vote.     

OVERVALUED: SWEDISH MONETARY POLICY IN THE 1930s

The article discusses Sweden's monetary policy in the 1930s, which has been hailed as the first and only example of successful price‐level targeting. Our contribution is twofold. First, we argue that the crucial measure that immediately ended deflationary expectations and enabled a swift recovery was a strong and involuntary devaluation of the currency, not the adoption of a new monetary policy framework. Second, starting from the recent literature on monetary policy at the zero‐lower bound, we conclude that Sweden's exchange rate policy is more relevant for the current discussion than its tentative experience with price‐level targeting.     

强度与指向：政府支持企业创新发展的注意力研究——基于中央科技政策文本的分析

政府支持企业创新发展的注意力变化及其分配对我国企业的创新发展具有重要的意义，而当前学界缺乏对此问题的深入探索。本文主要采用ROST CM 6.0软件对1983—2019年中央科技政策文本进行分析，总结提炼了此时期内中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力强度与指向变化。结果表明：(1)中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力强度经历了从“波动上升”到“相对稳定”的变化过程；(2)中央政府支持企业创新发展的施政重心经历了从“增强企业活力”到“创新驱动发展”的变化历程，不同时期中央政府对支持企业创新发展的认知以及需求存在差异，中央对支持企业创新发展的总体认知也在不断深化。(3)中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力指向发生了明显转移，技术发展实现了从“重引进学习”到“创新驱动发展”的战略转型，制度建设则朝着从“重管理”到“重服务”的方向转变，体现了政府在“瘦身”的同时，为企业创新发展“放水养鱼”。     

OPTIMAL EDUCATION POLICIES AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

We consider the optimal education policies of a small economy whose government has a limited budget. Initially, the economy is closed and the government chooses its education policy to maximize welfare under autarky. When the economy trades with the rest of the world the government chooses a new education policy that maximizes welfare under trade. Is it ever optimal for the government to choose its new policy so that it reverses the economy's comparative advantage? We find that if the budget stays fixed when it is optimal to ‘move up the skills chain’ it is not feasible. In such a case, a foreign loan is welfare improving. A move in the opposite direction can be optimal, and when it is optimal it is also feasible.     

煤化工技术群组分类和趋势预测:来自专利数据的分析

以国家知识产权局专利数据库为数据来源,采用专利文本挖掘、聚类分析和技术预测相结合的方法,结合R-stideo软件和Loglet Lab软件中的统计分析工具,针对煤化工技术进行技术群组分类及趋势预测研究。研究表明:煤化工技术可分成六大技术群组,即污水处理技术群组、煤气净化技术群组、煤气化技术群组、传统煤化工群组、污染物监测技术群组以及煤液化技术群组。传统煤化工技术专利申请量已进入下降期,表明传统煤化工技术进入衰退期,未来向更加清洁的新型煤化工方向发展;煤气净化技术、煤气化技术和煤液化技术等,经过发展进入稳定发展期,市场空间巨大;污水处理技术和污染物检测技术作为污染治理方面的技术处于快速发展阶段,污水处理技术正朝着更加高效、更加环保以及方法更加综合的方向发展,煤气净化技术正向着更加经济、环保、可靠和高效的方向发展。     

The political economy of the impossible trinity

This paper reconsiders the policy trilemma in an open economy by incorporating political economy concerns. We argue that the impact of government ideology on monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and capital flow restrictions should be analyzed in the broader context of restrictions imposed by the impossible trinity instead of the usual single-dimensional constraints. Employing a de facto measurement of these restrictions for a sample of 111 countries from 1980 to 2010, we show that the impact of government ideology on a country's position in this trilemma is highly context dependent: we find that its impact on exchange rate stability and monetary independence varies between developed and developing countries. We also show that the impact of government ideology on these two trilemma components is contingent on the stance of the respective economy's business cycle. Left-leaning governments seem to favor exchange rate stability over monetary independence in case of a negative output gap; suggesting a reversal of their commonly assumed partisan preferences in economically tight times.     

Targeting the biotechnology clusters in North Carolina and Israel: lessons from successful and unsuccessful policy making

This paper analyses the development of biotechnology clusters in North Carolina (NC) and Israel. In both NC and Israel, when the biotechnology was identified as a potential strategic priority, the framework conditions were suitable for successful policy-targeting. NC presents a case of a successful transition from a traditional manufacturing economy to a knowledge economy. The most successful part of this transition was a policy-led development of a biotechnology cluster in the Research Triangle. While Israel also presents a case of a successful transition from a low-tech economy to a knowledge-intensive economy, Israel failed to develop a successful biotechnology cluster. We suggest that this failure is mostly due to a failure to implement policy to encourage such development. We argue that the elements, which separate NC's success from Israel's failure, are: a clear vision and strategic planning; timely response, long-term commitment; strong leadership; cooperation between the government, private sector and academia, and an adjustable policy-making process.     

Risk preference,immigration policy and illegal immigration

The paper analyzes the effects of government policy upon illegal immigration. The model used as a vehicle for this analysis is an extension of Ethier's one-small-country model of illegal immigration to a two-country context. We distinguish between the cases of capital immobility and free capital mobility, and consider illegal immigration when there are border patrols by the government and when there are internal enforcement procedures in effect. Unlike previous researchers who have assumed risk neutrality, we examine the impacts of government policy when prospective illegal immigrants exhibit risk averse and risk loving behavior. The relaxation of the risk neutrality assumption leads to the possibility of multiple and unstable equilibria. Moreover, attitudes to risk and the probability of detection are shown to have implications for some equilibrium responses to tighter surveillance.     

The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy

Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agro-biotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new ‘governance’ agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches.     

Risk preference,immigration policy and illegal immigration

The paper analyzes the effects of government policy upon illegal immigration. The model used as a vehicle for this analysis is an extension of Ethier's one-small-country model of illegal immigration to a two-country context. We distinguish between the cases of capital immobility and free capital mobility, and consider illegal immigration when there are border patrols by the government and when there are internal enforcement procedures in effect. Unlike previous researchers who have assumed risk neutrality, we examine the impacts of government policy when prospective illegal immigrants exhibit risk averse and risk loving behavior. The relaxation of the risk neutrality assumption leads to the possibility of multiple and unstable equilibria. Moreover, attitudes to risk and the probability of detection are shown to have implications for some equilibrium responses to tighter surveillance.     

The determinants of internal migration in a developing country: quantitative evidence for Indonesia, 1930–2000

This study specifies and estimates a gravity model for interprovincial migration in Indonesia. Analysing five cross-sections for Indonesia's 26 provinces for five survey years between 1930 and 2000 we show that throughout the twentieth century economic factors were more important in the explanation of interprovincial migration patterns in Indonesia than planned migration policy aimed at the redistribution of the population. In addition, our regression analysis demonstrates that the urban primacy of Jakarta, Indonesia's capital, had a strong effect on the direction and size of migration flows. Our findings thus suggest that the costly government-supported migration is not very successful and that a strongly centralized government induces migration flows to the capital. These findings have policy implications for other developing countries.     

The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy

Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agro-biotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new 'governance' agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches.     

Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective

The serial underperformer of the region, Myanmar's economy is largely without the institutions and qualities necessary to achieve genuine economic growth. This paper explores the fundamentals of Myanmar's economy, from a perspective that emphasizes policy and institutional failure as the principal determinants of the country's present circumstances. The paper explores Myanmar's economy in a multifaceted way, examining concerns over economic growth, public finances, monetary and financial policies, corruption, and international trade. Notwithstanding the change in the form of Myanmar's governing institutions following the elections of November 2010, the paper concludes pessimistically as to the likelihood of meaningful economic reform in the foreseeable future.     

中国自贸试验区建设吸引了外商直接投资流入吗? ——来自216个地级市的面板数据考察

自由贸易试验区作为中国深化改革与开放的一项政策实验,尝试通过制度创新实现贸易、投资自由化,其政策效果究竟如何？研究基于2000—2019年216个地级市面板数据,运用广义合成控制法实证检验了我国自贸试验区对外商直接投资的影响。研究发现,自贸试验区在一定程度上吸引了外商直接投资流入,且随着时间推进,其对外商直接投资的正向促进作用愈发明显;控制其他政策因素的多期双重差分法的结果进一步验证了上述结论的可靠性。研究进一步发现：自贸试验区吸引外商直接投资的政策效果存在差异性。从时间趋势看,不同批次自贸试验区的政策导向不同,对外商直接投资的影响力度不同;从区域层面看,自贸试验区建设中,东部地区对外商直接投资的促进作用更强,中部地区的政策效应存在滞后性,西部地区吸引外商直接投资力度有下降趋势;从城市规模看,自贸试验区建设对一线城市外商直接投资的吸引力度更明显,级别越低的城市可塑性越强,吸引外商直接投资流入效果越显著。从不同发展梯度看,沿海自贸试验区对外商直接投资的正向影响程度高于内陆自贸试验区,而沿边自贸试验区并未发挥出对外商直接投资的吸引作用。     

环境成本的内部化与环境税制变迁

本文分析了环境成本产生的经济学根源,进而分析了环境成本内部化的途径。研究发现,政府环境税收政策的实施对企业利润的影响决定了环境成本内部化的途径。在完善的环境税制下,征收环境税可以促使污染企业外部成本内部化,因而环境税制是一种有效的环境经济政策。中国还没有开征专门的环境税,目前的税制在保护环境上发挥的作用不明显,有必要开征专门的环境税。本文运用制度变迁理论探讨了中国环境税制变迁的路径。     

The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies.     

STRATEGIC LOBBYING BY POTENTIAL INDUSTRY ENTRANTS*

A firm which lobbies government for a change in policy, say an import tariff, can increase its profits in two ways. First, the policy can increase the profits of all firms in the industry. This effect therefore involves a free-rider problem. Second, a firm's lobbying expenditures may signal other firms about its costs and interests. For example, a firm with low marginal costs may profit much from an import ban. Other firms which see that this firm expects to profit much from the ban may decide not to enter the industry. This may further increase the low-cost firm's profits.