Ownership structure and post-issue operating performance of firms conducting seasoned equity offerings in Thailand

This paper investigates the post-issue operating performance of companies that conducted seasoned equity offerings (SEO) in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) during the period 1991 to 1994. It is documented that SEO firms exhibited declining operating performance after the offering. Further, there is a negative relation between inside ownership concentration and postissue operating performance decline. In support of the signaling effect, the ratio of issue proceeds to pre-issue equity also negatively relates to post-issue operating performance. Further, the negative relation between issue proceeds and operating performance decline is intensified among SEO firms with high insider ownership concentration. The finding offers evidence in support of agency conflicts and information asymmetry and suggests that the two factors are operating simultaneously.     

Explanation for market response to seasoned equity offerings

In this paper, we use a multivariate framework to extend the recent univariate seasoned equity offering (SEO) research that investigated the valuation impact of inside ownership. Our multivariate findings re-enforce and add to the univariate findings as we show that the inside ownership level is a consistent factor in accounting for short-run and long-run returns around SEOs, while the decrease in inside ownership has no impact on short-run returns but influences long-run returns in a manner inconsistent with signaling theory. Compared to prior research, our regression tests do a much better job of accounting for returns associated with SEO announcements. For short-run regression tests, the four major factors associated with superior stock returns are: lower underpricing; greater profitability prior to SEO; lower inside ownership level; and, less stock price variability prior to SEO. For long-run regression tests, the four major conditions linked to superior returns are: greater profitability prior to SEO; smaller inside ownership level; relative size of the offering; and, greater decrease in inside ownership level.     

Taking Away the Voting Powers from Controlling Shareholders: Evidence from the Chinese Securities Market

The main agency problem in the Chinese economy comes from a conflict between strong controlling shareholders and weak minority shareholders. In such economy, seasonal equity offerings (SEOs) are used as a means to exploit minority shareholders. This paper examines the effects of a regulation (the classified voting system [CVS]) that attempts to protect the interests of minority shareholders by excluding controlling shareholders from the voting process of SEOs. This results show that the rejection rate significantly increases after the CVS comes into effect. SEOs proposals are more likely to be rejected when perceived private benefits are high and security benefits are low, and when minority shareholders have higher bargaining power. Further, investors receive significantly higher post‐SEO stock returns for SEOs approved under the CVS than for those approved before the CVS.     

Long-run underperformance following private equity placements: The role of growth opportunities

Our results show that the post-offering performance of private equity issuers is related to growth opportunities. We find significant long-run underperformance in stock returns following private placements only for firms with high Tobin's q. High-q firms experience not only poor stock price performance but also poor operating performance. Low-q firms, in contrast, do not display significant stock price or operating underperformance. We further examine three potential explanations for this relation: over-investment in assets by managers, investor skewness preference, and over-optimism about earnings prospects. Our results are consistent with the view that investors are overly optimistic about the prospects of high growth firms.     

The role of lending-relationship banks in the underwriting of seasoned equity offerings: Conflict of interest or certification?

Sections 20 and 32 of the 1933 Glass–Steagall Act address a potential conflict of interest by banning commercial banks from the market for corporate securities underwriting. This restriction was officially rescinded in 1999 by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Financial Modernization Act. In turn, this development has piqued the interest of scholars and renewed the debate on the role that commercial banks play, as well as the consequences of this role in equity offerings, which may either result in conflict of interest or certification. In this study, we comprehensively examine whether conflict of interest or certification more accurately characterizes the underwriting of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by lending-relationship banks. Overall, the results suggest that the presence of lending-relationship banks lowers the gross spreads and underpricing of SEOs. Furthermore, our evidence shows that SEOs led by lending-relationship banks exhibit better long-run performance than other SEOs, which supports the certification hypothesis.     

Asymmetric convergence in US financial credit default swap sector index markets

This study examines the asymmetric adjustments to the long-run equilibrium for credit default swap (CDS) sector indexes of three financial sectors – banking, financial services and insurance – in the presence of a threshold effect. The results of the momentum-threshold autoregression (M-TAR) models demonstrate that asymmetric cointegration exists for all pairs comprised of those three CDS indexes. The speeds of adjustment in the long-run are much higher in the case of adjustments from below the threshold than from above for all the pairs. The estimates of The MTAR-VEC models suggest that the dual CDS index return in each sector pair participates in the adjustment to equilibrium in the short- and long-run taken together. But in the long-run alone, only one of the two spreads in each pair participates. Policy implications are also provided.     

NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note

This paper provides tests of the co-movement of the North American stock markets. We find over the post-US stock market crash period, 1987:11 through 1997:03, there is no cointegration present in these markets even when the passage of NAFTA is taken into account. The absence of cointegration allows us to draw several conclusions. First, the stock markets of North America are segmented. Second, the passage of NAFTA has not resulted in a greater integration of these stock markets. Finally, the data do not support the notion of a contagion effect from the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In conclusion, the potential for long-run international diversification across the markets of North America still exists.     

Hedge fund attributes and volatility around equity offerings

The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential influence of hedge fund attributes on idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) in excess stock returns for 705 firms undergoing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). This investigation is important due to the pervasive concerns about the impact of hedge funds on volatility. We choose a time frame from 1999 to 2005 covering two periods that could impact IVOL differently: the internet-technology bubble period and the post-bubble period. Our time frame includes the breakpoint year of 2000 that marks a downward trend in IVOL from 2000 to 2008. We explore this IVOL drop for a sample of SEOs and find that the decline in IVOL for this sample can be primarily related to the rapid increase in the hedge fund industry size and to the increasing use of leverage by hedge funds. This trend is also related to the increasing use of a relative value (arbitrage) strategy and the decreasing use of an event-driven strategy. IVOL for our sample also appears to decrease with greater hedge fund performance except when hedge funds are riding the pre-SEO stock price run-up. The downward shift in IVOL for our SEO sample around their offering dates is better explained by hedge fund attributes than by non-hedge fund attributes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the rapid increase in the hedge fund industry offer an explanation for the mysterious decline in IVOL that has been witnessed since 2000.     

Heterogeneous relationship between IPO return and risk across idiosyncratic variance characteristics

This paper analyzes the levels and changes in the post-IPO stock return volatility and provides insights into market responses to the presence of firm-specific risk. First, we document a negative relation between initial idiosyncratic volatility level and the post-IPO volatility change in that initially low volatility firms have more volatility increase and vice verse. This evidence suggests fundamental firm-specific changes after the IPO. Further, we find that underpricing and short-run post-IPO returns are positively related to the initial and corresponding idiosyncratic risk level. This finding suggests that underpricing compensates investors for acquiring costly information and firm-specific risk information is being incorporated into offer prices. Finally, we find that higher long-run post-IPO performance is related to both lower initial risk level and decreasing risk in the first year after the IPO.     

The influence of private equity and venture capital on the post-IPO performance of newly-public acquirers

This paper examines the influence of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) ownership on the post-initial public offering (IPO) performance of newly-public acquirers. Our results show that acquirers with PE- or VC-backing at the time of the IPO perform better long-term than acquirers without such backing. More importantly, while acquirers without financial backing experience negative long-run returns from first-year acquisitions, acquirers with continued PE- and VC-backing perform significantly better when making acquisitions within the first year after going public. However, acquiring firms and investors should be aware that for mergers in the second and third year post-IPO, continued VC ownership has a detrimental long-term impact. In contrast, higher levels of continued PE ownership tend to have a positive relationship with long-run performance.     

Venture capitalist participation and the post-issue operating performance of IPO firms

Previous studies have identified the value-added potential of venture capitalist monitoring in the initial public offering (IPO) market. We test this proposition by comparing the post-issue operating performance of venture capitalist-backed IPOs with a matched sample of non-venture capitalist-backed IPOs. We find that venture capitalist-backed IPO firms exhibit relatively superior post-issue operating performance compared to non-venture capital-backed IPO firms. Further, the market appears to recognize the value of monitoring by venture capitalists as reflected in the higher valuations at the time of the IPO. Finally, we find that proxies for the quality of venture capitalist monitoring are positively related to post-issue operating performance.     

Order aggressiveness, pre-trade transparency, and long memory in an order-driven market

Recent empirical research has documented that the state of the limit order book influences stock investors' strategies. Investors place more aggressive orders when the same side of the order book is thicker, and less aggressive orders when it is thinner. We conjecture and demonstrate that this behavior is related to long memories of trading volume, volatility, and order signs in stock markets. We investigate our conjecture in two types of artificial stock markets: a transparent market, in which agents observe all limit orders on both sides of the book and order volumes at those prices before they trade; and a less transparent market, in which agents observe only the best five bid and ask quotes with the depth available at these limit prices. The first market structure resembles certain actual stock exchanges in the level of pre-trade transparency, such as the Australian Stock Exchange, NYSE OpenBook, and the London Stock Exchange, whereas the second market structure is consistent with stock exchanges such as Euronext Paris, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing. We demonstrate that our long memory results are robust with different levels of pre-trade transparency, implying that the strategy constructed by the state of the order book is key for explaining long memories in many actual stock exchanges.     

Market effects of private equity placement: Evidence from Chinese equity and bond markets

Research has provided empirical evidence for the stock market reaction toward private placement; however, similar research has not been conducted in terms of the bond market. Using the event study method, we empirically examine the explanatory power of the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses based on the reaction of the stock market, bond market, and firm abnormal returns to the private placement announcement. The results show that the stock market has a negative reaction toward private placement, whereas the bond market has a positive reaction. The results also show that the scale of private placement is correlated with the severity of the market reaction. Abnormal returns indicate no significant change both before and after the private placement, and they are unaffected by the scale of private placement. These results are consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis; however, the market reaction is not attributable to the signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis. Extensive research shows that the abnormal returns of private placement change dramatically in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bonds, whereas the bond maturity has no significant impact on the abnormal returns—the wealth transfer effect of private placement is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bond.     

Credit-based early warning indicators of banking crises in emerging markets

This article explores the role of credit-based variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in the context of emerging economies. We collect data on bank and total credit to the private sector in emerging markets and evaluate the signalling performance by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results show that nominal credit growth and the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio have the best signalling properties and significantly outperform the credit-to-GDP gap in almost all specifications for policy-relevant horizons. These findings are in stark contrast with the results on advanced economies, where the credit-to-GDP gap is the single best performing EWI. Our results emphasize the importance of caution when applying statistical methods calibrated for advanced markets to emerging economies.     

Mexico’s balance of payments and exchange rates: a cointegration analysis

Mexico’s recurrent economic crises have cast serious doubts on the existence of a long-run relationship between the country’s balance-of-payments and exchange rates. In this paper, cointegration and vector autoregression techniques are applied to Mexico’s data covering the period 1971 through 1988. Despite the presence of nonstationarity, the statistical analysis supports a long-run relationship between changes in international reserves and the exchange rate and changes in domestic credit. Further multivariate Granger causality tests, together with innovation accounting, indicate that Mexico’s monetary authorities adjust domestic assets to sterilize balance-of-payments deficits in a futile attempt to control its monetary policy.     

The great rotation in global credit risks

• ? The pattern of global credit risks looks very different today than in 2007. Risks are now mostly centred in China and emerging markets. “Excess” private debt in China is as high as $3 trillion compared with $1.7 trillion in the US a decade ago. Yet some pockets of significant risk still exist in advanced economies, which not only implies vulnerability to rising interest rates, but also that the scope for rate rises may be limited.
• ? With policy normalisation underway in the US and the scaling back of asset purchases expected to start soon in the Eurozone, we focus on assessing vulnerabilities across global credit markets. This article explores the topic using a top‐down, cross‐country approach. We find that although private debt and debt service ratios look more benign in advanced economies than a decade ago, they have deteriorated markedly in many emerging markets in recent years.
• ? Based on a measure of excess private debt – comparing private credit‐to‐GDP ratios with their trend – China, Hong Kong and Canada are the riskiest. When comparing debt service ratios relative to their long‐term averages, risks are also mainly concentrated in emerging countries. But Canada, Australia and some smaller European countries also have high debt service ratios that have failed to drop since 2007, despite the slump in global interest rates.
• ? Overall, aggregate private debt indicators look less worrying than in 2007. We would also argue that the concentration of excess private debt levels in China reduces the risk of a sudden financial crisis based on massive credit losses, such as the one in 2007–2010. But with corporate debt levels in the US, Canada and some other G7 countries above their long‐term trend, investors need to be attentive to these considerable pockets of risk.

     

Information content of unexpected dividends under a semi-mandatory dividend policy: An empirical study of China

We examine the information content of unexpected dividend changes under China’s unique semi-mandatory dividend policy, which requires firms to pay a minimum amount of cash dividends before they can undertake seasoned equity offerings (SEO). The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are significantly positive in response to unexpected dividend increase for non-SEO firms, but they are not significantly different from zero for SEO firms. For non-SEO firms, there is a significant positive relation between future earnings and unexpected dividend increases, but the relation is not significant for SEO firms. However, when considering additional refinancing costs for SEO firms caused by the mandatory dividend policy, higher dividend payments are associated with lower future earnings. Overall, our findings are consistent with both the dividend signaling theory and the negative effects of SEOs on a firm’s value.     

Regulatory risk, market uncertainties, and firm financing choices: Evidence from U.S. Electricity Market Restructuring

Based on the universe of rate-regulated electric utilities in the U.S., we examine why firms alter their financing decisions when transitioning from a regulated to a competitive market regime. We find that the significant increase in regulatory risk after the passage of the Energy Policy Act, state-level restructuring legislations, and divestiture policies have reduced leverage by 15 percent. Policies that encouraged competition, and hence increased market uncertainty, lowered leverage by another 13 percent on average. The ability to exercise market power allowed some firms to counter this competitive threat. In aggregate, regulatory risk and market uncertainty variables reduce leverage between 24.6 and 26.7 percent. We also confirm findings in the literature that firms with higher profitability and higher asset growth have lower leverage, and those with more tangible assets are more levered. Firms with greater access to internal capital markets and those with a footloose customer segment use less debt, while those actively involved in trading power in the wholesale market use more debt.     

Trade credit versus bank credit: Evidence from corporate inventory financing

In this study, I introduce capital market imperfections into a structure framework of inventory investments and investigate impacts of trade credit on firms’ inventory dynamics and analyze the relationship between trade credit and bank loans. As a result, firms end up using a mix of trade credit and bank loans. I find that the use of trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes. During tight monetary periods, trade credit operates mainly as a substitute for bank borrowing while during looser monetary episodes even when the economy is weak, trade credit and bank loans are dominated by a complementary effect.