Indirect tax reform and the specification of demand: the case of Ireland

This paper examines the sensitivity of marginal tax reform analysis to changes in the underlying demand system. In particular, we analyse the sensitivity of results from Ahmad and Stern’s (J Publ Econ 25(3):259–298, 1984) marginal tax reform model to different specifications of Deaton and Muellbauer’s (Am Econ Rev 70(3):312–326, 1980) Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and Banks et al.’s (Rev Econ Stat 79(4):527–539, 1997) Quadratic AIDS. Using Irish Household Budget Survey data, we show that tax reform results exhibit a low degree of sensitivity to changes in the underlying demand system. An adjustment for a mass of observed zero-expenditures in the data for certain goods produces most sensitivity in the tax reform results. Even in these cases, many of the tax reform recommendations remain constant. Including demerit good arguments in the tax reform model can substantially alter the tax reform recommendations relating to demerit goods. Notably though, when we include these arguments in the tax reform model, the results are particularly insensitive to changes in the underlying demand system.     

Progression and revenue effects of income tax reform

Usually, only initial revenue effects of personal income tax reforms are considered. However, a tax reform characterized by base broadening in exchange for rate reduction can reduce the income elasticity of tax revenue. In that case, the increase in revenue after income growth will be relatively smaller: the tax reform has a negative effect on revenue in the second period. Using the microtax model of the Central Planning Bureau we simulated the effects of the Dutch Oort reform 1990 on revenue elasticities and, consequently, on tax revenue. The income tax revenue elasticity declined by 17 percent which caused an additional revenue loss of 0.6 percent in 1990, rising to 3.8 percent in 1993.     

Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries

A key figure suited to measuring intergenerational imbalances in unfunded public pension schemes is given by the ‘implicit tax rate’ imposed on each generation's lifetime income. The implicit tax arises from the fact that, quite generally, pension benefits fall short of actuarial returns to contributions paid to these systems while actively working. Under current pension policies, implicit tax rates will increase sharply for younger generations in most industrialised countries. In this paper, this is illustrated for the cases of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Nevertheless, there are remarkable differences across countries regarding both the level of implicit taxes and their development over successive age cohorts, which can be attributed to differences in ageing processes and in the institutional features of national pension systems. In addition, we can demonstrate how effective different approaches to pension reform are in smoothing the intergenerational profile of implicit tax rates.     

The Norwegian shareholder tax reconsidered

S?rensen (Int. Tax Public Finance 12(6):777–801, 2005) gives an in-depth account of the new Norwegian Shareholder Tax, which allows the shareholders a deduction for an imputed risk-free rate of return. S?rensen’s positive evaluation appears as reasonable for a closed economy where the deduction for the imputed return is capitalized into the market prices of corporate shares. We show that in a small open economy where no capitalization occurs, the Norwegian shareholder tax is likely to leave the distortions caused by the corporate income tax unaffected, and to add new distortions to shareholders’ portfolio decisions.     

Trade integration and corporate income tax differentials

Building on recent contributions to the New Economic Geography literature, this paper analyses the relation between asymmetric market size, trade integration, and corporate income tax differentials across countries. First, relying on Ottaviano and Van Ypersele’s (J. Int. Econ. 67:25–46, 2005) foot-loose capital model of tax competition, we illustrate that trade integration reduces the importance of relative market size for differences in the extent of corporate taxation between countries. Then, using a dataset of 26 OECD countries over the period 1982–2004, we provide supportive evidence of these theoretical predictions, i.e., market size differences are strongly positively correlated with corporate income tax differences across countries, but crucially, trade integration weakens this link. These findings are obtained controlling for the potential endogeneity of trade integration and are robust to alternative specifications.     

Gender implications of current social security reforms

This paper examines some current reforms to social security benefits / tax credits and changes to employment provisions from a gender perspective. It analyses tensions between the trend towards ‘individualisation’ and growing emphasis on the couple/household as a policy focus. New tax credits change the distribution of resources within many couples. Incentives to work for some second earners should improve; but extending in‐work subsidies to childless couples raises questions. Payment of child tax credit to the ‘main carer’ has been welcomed, though the implications of joint ownership of tax credits are unclear, and joint assessment will be extended. Many claimants' partners can now access employment services. However, this is aimed at reducing the number of workless households rather than expanding individuals' opportunities. Joint claims for jobseeker's allowance, and work‐focused interviews, involve increased responsibilities for partners but no right of access to individual income. A more consistent critical analysis of reform from a gender perspective is required.     

Effects of tax reform on drop-off ratios and on the ex-dividend and ex-right prices

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the integrated tax system introduced in Taiwan on the valuation of dividends. Based on Elton and Gruber??s (Rev Econ Stat 52:68?C74, 1970) model, the ratio of ex-day price drop to cash dividend per share (i.e., the drop-off ratio) should reflect the relative taxes on dividends and capital gains. In Taiwan, the suspension of capital gains taxes, the coexistence of taxable and non-taxable stock dividends, and the change in tick sizes allow us to control for the influences of non-tax factors on drop-off ratios. In this paper, we find significant increases in drop-off ratios for both cash dividends and taxable stock dividends after Taiwan??s tax reform (in 1998), while we find no significant changes in drop-off ratios for non-taxable stock dividends. These results provide further evidence to support the argument that tax affects the valuation of firms.     

Interdisciplinarity and tax law: The case of legal autopoiesis

This paper critically evaluates interdisciplinary research in tax law. The strategy I follow runs at two levels of abstraction.First, I examine a concrete example of interdisciplinary research in taxation. More precisely, I examine Hikaka and Prebble's (2010) recent paper where, applying Luhmannian autopoietic theory to tax law, they make a series of claims about the productivity of their research strategy as well as the consistency and coherence of Luhmann's interdisciplinary framework. Whereas my analytical and conceptual critique of Hikaka and Prebble's paper stands on its own, it should also be read as revealing the obstacles that lurk behind interdisciplinary research in using such a complex and idiosyncratic theory as Luhmann's autopoietic account of law and society. Accordingly, my analysis shows how autopoietic theory can indeed prove useful for tax and accounting reform as well as to connect tax theory and notions of public interest.Second, I extrapolate from the analysis of Hikaka and Prebble's paper some general problems that current interdisciplinary tax research needs to give further consideration: (i) how to identify productive research questions and uses of interdisciplinary resources; (ii) the dubious added value of interdisciplinary research, given its tendency to adopt complex theoretical apparatuses in a cursory way with little comparison being made to existing research achievements; and (iii) the risk of using interdisciplinary research as an exercise of confirmatory investigation and/or an exercise of mere translation of one discipline's problems into another discipline's language.     

Insurer's insolvency risk and tax deductions for the individual's net losses

Using the representative agent approach as in Kaplow (Am Econ Rev 82:1013–1017, 1992b), this paper shows that providing tax deductions for the individual’s net losses is socially optimal when the insurer faces the risk of insolvency. We further show that the government should adopt a higher tax deduction rate for net losses when the insurer is insolvent than when the insurer is solvent. Thus, tax deductions for net losses could be used to provide an insurance for individuals against the insurer’s risk of insolvency. These findings could also be used to explain why a government provides supplementary public insurance or government relief. Finally, we discuss that, if the individuals are heterogeneous in terms of loss severity, loss probability, or income level, providing a tax deduction for the individual’s net losses may not always achieve a Pareto improvement, and cross subsidization should be taken into consideration.

Cooperation in environmental policy: a spatial approach

Inefficient competition in emissions taxes for foreign direct investment creates benefits from international cooperation. In the presence of cross-border pollution, proximate (neighboring) countries have greater incentives to cooperate than distant ones as illustrated by a model of tax competition for mobile capital. Spatial econometrics is used to estimate participation in 110 international environmental treaties by 139 countries over 20 years. Empirical evidence of increased cooperation among proximate countries is provided. Furthermore, strategic responses in treaty participation vary across country groups between OECD and non-OECD countries and are most evident in regional agreements.     

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.     

A growth oriented dual income tax

This paper proposes a growth oriented dual income tax by combining an allowance for corporate equity with a broadly defined flat tax on personal capital income. Revenue losses are compensated by an increase in the value added tax. The paper demonstrates the neutrality properties of the reform with respect to investment, firm financial decisions and organizational choice. Tax rates are chosen to prevent income shifting from labor to capital income. The reform decisively strengthens investment of domestically owned firms as well as home and foreign based multinationals and boosts savings. Simulations with a calibrated growth model for Switzerland indicate that the reform could add between 4 to 5 percent of GNP in the long-run, depending on the specific scenario. Given the slow nature of capital accumulation, it imposes considerable costs in the short-run. We consider a tax smoothing scenario to offset the intergenerationally redistributive effects. JEL Classification: D58, D92, E62, G32, H25     

Why Are Mothers Working Longer Hours in Austria than in Germany? A Comparative Microsimulation Analysis*

Labour force participation rates of mothers in Austria and Germany are similar; however, full‐time employment rates are much higher among Austrian mothers. In order to find out to what extent these differences can be attributed to differences in the tax‐transfer system, we perform a comparative microsimulation exercise. After estimating structural labour supply models for both countries, we interchange two important institutional characteristics of the two countries ‐ namely, (i) the definition of the tax unit within the personal income tax and (ii) the parental leave benefit scheme. As our analysis shows, differences in mothers’employment patterns can partly be explained by the different tax systems: while Germany has a system of joint taxation with income splitting for married couples, Austria taxes everyone individually, which leads to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners than in the German system.     

Horizontal Inequity and Vertical Redistribution

Inequality of post-tax income among pre-tax equals is evaluated andaggregated to form a global index of horizontal inequity in the income tax.The vertical action of the tax is captured by its inequality effect on averagebetween groups of pre-tax equals. Putting the two together, horizontalinequity measures loss of vertical performance. The identification problem,which has previously been thought insuperable, is addressed by a procedurevalidating the banding of income units into close equals groups. Thehorizontal and vertical effects of a major Spanish income tax reform areevaluated. Lines for future investigation are suggested.     

Should we subsidize work? Welfare reform,the earned income tax credit and optimal transfers

During the 1990s, US income transfer and tax policies shifted towards trying to encourage work among low-income families. Optimal tax theory, however, suggests that work subsidies are usually an inefficient way to raise the incomes of poor families unless the work effort of recipients has external benefits and/or tax payer/voters prefer redistributing income to the working poor rather than the idle poor. This paper discusses the conditions under which work subsidies may be economically efficient and assesses empirical evidence that suggests that welfare reform and expansions of the EITC have increased work effort among low income families, but is inconclusive about whether the policy shift has enabled them to advance beyond entry-level jobs or benefited their children.     

On the optimal progressivity of the income tax code

This paper computes the optimal progressivity of the income tax code in a dynamic general equilibrium model with household heterogeneity in which uninsurable labor productivity risk gives rise to a nontrivial income and wealth distribution. A progressive tax system serves as a partial substitute for missing insurance markets and enhances an equal distribution of economic welfare. These beneficial effects of a progressive tax system have to be traded off against the efficiency loss arising from distorting endogenous labor supply and capital accumulation decisions.Using a utilitarian steady state social welfare criterion we find that the optimal US income tax is well approximated by a flat tax rate of 17.2% and a fixed deduction of about $9,400. The steady state welfare gains from a fundamental tax reform towards this tax system are equivalent to 1.7% higher consumption in each state of the world. An explicit computation of the transition path induced by a reform of the current towards the optimal tax system indicates that a majority of the population currently alive (roughly 62%) would experience welfare gains, suggesting that such fundamental income tax reform is not only desirable, but may also be politically feasible.     

Do government preferences matter for tax competition?

This paper explores how government preferences affect capital tax decisions of a country. We develop a model in which governments, differentiating in their preferences for economic development and income equality, compete for mobile capital over corporation taxes. The key prediction of the model, borne out in data from OECD countries over the years 1990–2012, is that an increase in government preferences for pursuing economic development relative to income equality makes countries’ horizontal tax reactions stronger. Unlike the existing studies, our result contributes to the tax competition literature by highlighting the importance of government preferences in determining the extent of tax competition among countries and so offering a novel explanation for the widely observed heterogeneous tax policies across countries.     

Joint Taxation and the Labour Supply of Married Women: Evidence from the Canadian Tax Reform of 1988*

The Canadian federal tax reform of 1988 replaced a spousal tax exemption with a non‐refundable tax credit. This reduced the‘jointness’of the tax system: after the reform, secondary earners’effective‘first dollar’marginal tax rates no longer depended on the marginal tax rates of their spouses. In practice, the effective‘first dollar’marginal tax rates faced by women with high‐income husbands were particularly reduced. Using difference‐indifference estimators, we find a significant increase in labour force participation among women married to higher‐income husbands.     

International tax competition with endogenous sequencing

This paper examines endogenous timing in an international tax competition model. Unlike existing studies, governments are assumed to decide not only tax rates but also whether they are set early or late. The Nash equilibrium provides four conclusions for alternative double tax allowances. First, tax deductions cause simultaneous tax competition, whereas tax credits yield sequential tax competition. Second, any double taxation relief would generate capital trade. Third, a credit system could maximize one country’s economic welfare but would lower another country’s economic welfare more than a deduction regime. Fourth, a home country’s government would choose credit regimes under a maximax rule, but select deduction methods under minimax and maximin rules, while all double tax allowances are indifferent to a host country. The findings resolve the question raised by Bond and Samuelson (Economic Journal 99:1099–1111, 1989) of why governments choose tax credits when tax deductions are clearly better. Namely, this paper shows that one country is better off but another is worse off with credits rather than deductions. Accordingly, we cannot clearly specify whether governments choose credit systems or deduction regimes. The possible double tax allowances employed by the governments depend on their own decision criterion.     

Beyond the labour income tax wedge: the unemployment-reducing effect of tax progressivity

In this paper, we argue that, for a given overall level of labour income taxation, a more progressive tax schedule increases employment. From a theoretical point of view, higher progressivity increases overall employment through a wage moderating effect and also because employment of low-paid workers is more elastic to wages. We test these theoretical predictions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over 1998–2008. Controlling for the burden of taxation at the average wage, our estimates suggest that a more progressive tax schedule reduces the unemployment rate and increases the employment rate. These findings are confirmed when we account for the potential endogeneity of both average taxation and progressivity. Overall, our results suggest that policy-makers should not only focus on the detrimental effects of tax progressivity on in-work effort, but also consider the employment-enhancing effects.