Remittance and financial inclusion in refugee migrants: inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the impact on remittances on financial inclusion of refugee migrants. While financial inclusion is gaining traction in the humanitarian and development literature, the linkage with the potential to improve the wellbeing of refugees, who are part of an upward spiral in numbers, has not been tackled. We examine World Bank survey data of 1041 Syrian refugees, using the inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score analysis (IPTW). The method minimises the influence of outliers and addresses unobservable and missing data biases, which can plague survey based data. We observe that common indicators of financial inclusion when applied to refugees, given their limited access to formal financial services, may introduce a bias as the informal financial sector and excluded formal financial sector services do contribute to inclusiveness. We adopt a broader protocol for our data, measuring financial inclusion through six metrics stemming from G20 proposals. Overall, there is an opportunity to deepen financial inclusion for refugees who receive or send remittances. The possibility of expanding the financial inclusion options, and for this to percolate through to greater social inclusion, proffers practical commercial steps and policy enabling actions.     

Remittances and financial development in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A dynamic approach

Despite the importance of remittances in total international flows, the conclusion of the studies on the relationship between remittances and financial development, is still not completely unanimous, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, financial development matters for growth and poverty alleviation and financial inclusion have many beneficial effects for households. We examine the relationship between remittances and financial sector development with several dynamic panel data methods. We find a positive, significant, and robust bidirectional link between remittances and financial development for the panel of 32 countries.     

Lifting You up or Dragging You Down? The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Transitions Among Italian Households

We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies.     

International Poverty Comparisons on Unit Record Data of Developing and Developed Countries

Cross country poverty comparisons on unit records have, rarely, involved both developing and developed countries. The present study attempts to fill this gap by comparing poverty across fourteen nations with diverse economic and demographic characteristics and at vastly different stages of economic development. The study contains evidence on (a) cross country variation in the equivalence scales estimated in the presence of both household size economies and adult/child relativities, (b) impact of demographic adjustment of the poverty line, that incorporate household size and composition changes, on the poverty rates, and (c) sensitivity of the poverty estimates and their rankings to the ‘equivalence elasticity’. The study finds that country rankings based on per capita GNP bear very little resemblance with that based on the aggregate poverty rates. The latter hide substantial variation in the poverty estimates across different household types.     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.     

Does financial inclusion empower women in Africa?

This paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment. We contribute to the growing interest in financial inclusion effectiveness literature by conducting an empirical analysis of 42 African countries to examine the role of financial inclusion in empowering women. We also examine and compare the effectiveness of the three dimensions of financial inclusion viz. usage, access, and quality, and the first most influential indicators, based on their PCA score, of these dimensions. Our findings suggest that financial inclusion has a significantly positive effect on women's empowerment-measured by females' human development index. Examining the relative importance of financial inclusion dimensions, we find access to financial services has a higher effect on women's empowerment. These results are robust to alternative measures of women's empowerment and financial inclusion, and alternative estimation procedures. We also find that the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment is higher in low and lower-middle-income countries compared with upper-middle-income countries in the region. This study provides evidence of one of the channels through which financial inclusion contributes to reducing gender inequality, and thereby enhancing economic development.     

The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China

This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes—income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different data sets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 694–712.     

The Gendered Nature of Poverty in the EU: Individualized versus Collective Poverty Measures

Due to the adoption of the household as a unit of analysis, researchers have failed to identify accurate measures of women's income poverty. This study proposes an individualized measure of European poverty to highlight gender differences in the economic crisis. Employing data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the period 2007–12, it compares the household-based at-risk-of-poverty rate (ARPR) and the individualized financial dependency rate (FDR). The study shows that the gender gap in poverty in Europe is considerably higher when computed through FDR. Indeed, since the ARPR constitutes a proxy of the household's average conditions, it levels down gender inequalities within the household and also variations in individuals’ incomes over time. Only more detailed data collection on intrahousehold resource sharing will possibly allow the development of more precise and realistic indicators of women's and men's risks of poverty and financial dependency.     

IS POVERTY INCREASING IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD?

We assess the developing world's progress in reducing poverty during the late 1980s using new data on the distribution of household consumption or income per person for 44 countries. Local currencies are adjusted to purchasing power parity. To assess robustness, restricted dominance tests are applied to the poverty comparisons. An overall decrease in poverty incidence is indicated over a wide range of poverty lines and measures. However the change is small, and numbers of poor increased at roughly the rate of population growth. The experience was diverse across regions and countries; poverty fell in South and East Asia, while it rose in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Bank credit risk,grain production and the Indian economy

ABSTRACT

We generate measures of banking risk across Indian states and examine the relationship between banking risk and economic production in India. We find that banking risk co-moves with total grain production (TPG) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). The long-term impact of banking risk differs across Indian states. Ten states are negatively affected while one state maintains growth in RGDP. Likewise, the results show that six states are negatively affected while two states maintain growth in TPG. Banking risk is found to induce a larger decline in TPG than in RGDP at the national and state levels. Overall, banking risk shocks induce negative effects on both TPG and RGDP.     

HOUSEHOLD NEEDS AND POVERTY: WITH APPLICATION TO SPAIN AND THE U.K.

We examine the sensitivity of U.K.-Spanish poverty comparisons to variations in the dependence of equivalence scales on household size and composition, using evidence from national household budget surveys. We sum up these comparisons using subjective confidence levels. Taking into account the dissimilarities in the distribution of incomes and needs across countries, we find, inter alia , that although the poor are typically more numerous in Spain than in Britain, the actual headcount differences may vary by up to 10 percent of the population when needs allowances are altered, even when kept the same across the two countries. Comparisons of poverty composition across the two countries are also very sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale parameters. Generally, however, the proportion of single adults among the poor is much less important in Spain than in Britain, the reverse being true for households with three or more adults.     

Hidden in Plain Sight: Unpaid Household Services and the Politics of GDP Measurement

ABSTRACT

Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the world’s most influential and widely cited economic indicators. However, outside of the industrialised, market-based context in which the indicator was first designed, GDP measurement suffers from a number of biases and blind spots. The article zooms in on one of these: the exclusion of unpaid household services from the production boundary of the System of National Accounts, the international standard underpinning GDP methodology. While GDP has expanded over time to include activities as diverse as financial services and the informal sector, the treatment of unpaid household services has remained unchanged. Why is this? I find that staff in the statistical departments of international organisations such the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank have a tremendous degree of agency in the governance of GDP. While these statisticians are aware of and engage with criticisms, they reject the inclusion of unpaid household services based on shared professional norms and economic ideas.     

On the role of domestic and international financial cyclical factors in driving economic growth

ABSTRACT

We investigate the effects of (domestic and international) financial cyclical factors on the US business cycle over the period 1890–2013 using an augmented stochastic version of the neoclassical growth model. In our setting, financial factors enter as determinants of the total factor productivity cyclical pattern. By means of static and dynamic estimations we find that (i) the inclusion of financial cyclical factors improves the model’s performance; (ii) the sensitivity of economic growth to financial factors is time-varying; (iii) domestic financial factors have a key role in explaining short-run output fluctuations only in the first half of the 20th century; (iv) US business cycle fluctuations have been mainly driven by global financial factors (i.e., financial integration) over the last three decades.

JEL CODES: O40, E32, C32     

Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war

We investigate the relationship between exposure to the Burundi Civil War and household (food) poverty, using a three-wave household-level panel matched with data on local-level violence. We find that households living in localities exposed to the war have been subsequently more likely to be poor than non-exposed households. Within-household estimations, controlling for time-varying heterogeneity at the province level, confirm the positive impact of violence exposure on household poverty. We investigate some of the potential mechanisms at play in the violence – poverty nexus, and the role of violence exposure in household poverty dynamics over time. Our results notably suggest that the destruction of physical capital, as well as a shift of exposed households out of non-farm activities, shape poverty dynamics and lower their chances of durably remaining out of poverty.     

How reliable and consistent are subjective measures of welfare in Europe and Central Asia?

This paper analyses the reliability and consistency of subjective well‐being measures, using the Life in Transition Survey. Drawing on two life satisfaction questions with alternative scales, our results do not reveal substantial biases in accounts of life satisfaction due to framing. Subjective individual assessments of household relative income position, on the other hand, do not appear to be reliable predictors of objective poverty or wealth. We find that subjective relative income position is only weakly correlated with objective welfare measures. There are differences in evaluations of the household's relative standing across different household members, and these differences are correlated with respondent characteristics.     

ICT for financial access: Mobile money and the financial behavior of rural households in Uganda

Mobile money usage has expanded tremendously in Uganda, reaching over 40% of the adult population within 8 years of inception. We use data from 820 rural households to examine the effect of this financial innovation on their financial behavior. We find that using mobile money services increases the likelihood of saving, borrowing, and receiving remittances. The corresponding amounts of each service are also significantly higher among mobile money user households relative to their nonuser counterparts. We demonstrate that the mechanism of this impact is a reduction in transaction costs—a combination of transportation fares and service charges—associated with household proximity to mobile money agents. To illustrate the convenience of service proximity, we demonstrate that the household's likelihood and frequency of using mobile money services reduces with the distance to the nearest mobile money agent. This distance variable is then used to instrument for the potentially endogenous mobile money adoption. We finally perform propensity score matching to reinforce the robustness of our results; our results are consistent across all these specifications. The results imply that developing and enhancing access to and usage of pro‐poor financial products could be a first step to achieving greater financial inclusion.     

The drivers of household indebtedness reconsidered: An empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries

Abstract

Household debt is at a record high in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and it played a crucial role in the recent financial crisis. Several arguments on the macroeconomic drivers of household debt have been put forward, and most have been empirically tested, albeit in isolation of each other. This article empirically tests 7 competing hypotheses on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness together in one econometric study. Existing arguments suggest that residential house prices, upward movements in the prices of assets demanded by households, the income share of the top 1%, falling wages, the rolling back of the welfare state, the age structure of the population, and the short-term interest rate drive household indebtedness. We formulate these arguments as hypotheses and test them for a panel of 13 OECD countries over the period 1993–2011 using error correction models. We also investigate whether effects differ in boom and bust phases of the debt and house price cycles. The results show that the most robust macroeconomic determinant of household debt is real residential house prices, and that the phase of the debt and house price cycles plays a role in household debt accumulation.     

Assessment of the effects of targeted poverty alleviation policy on differently poverty-stricken households: A multi-propensity score weighting model

Eliminating poverty is a multifaceted global challenge and a focal point of global development governance. With the implementation of targeted poverty alleviation (TPA), China's poverty alleviation efforts have had significant achievements. This study provides a new perspective by classifying poverty-stricken households based on poverty root causes at the household level, a multi-propensity score weighting model based on counterfactual inference is employed to examine the poverty reduction effect and policy precision on six non-equivalent poverty-stricken household groups in a Chinese county. The results reveal that the poverty reduction effects differed among poverty-stricken households with different root causes of poverty. Specifically, households impoverished due to disability have the lowest income of the six groups. The assistance policy effects also vary significantly and are found to be poorly suited to poverty-stricken households a lack of labor force and funds. A robustness test confirms this conclusion and a more nuanced analysis reveals that these differences are reflected in the wage and transfer incomes. Therefore, to ensure the stability of poverty reduction and the sustainability of income for poverty-stricken households, relevant associated aid policies need to place different emphases based on their household characteristics.     

Dimensions and Determinants of Financialisation: Comparing OECD Countries since 1997

ABSTRACT

The financialisation literature has grown over the past decades. Despite a generally accepted definition, financialisation has been used to describe different phenomena. We distinguish between financialisation of non-financial companies, households and the financial sector and use activity and vulnerability measures. We identify seven financialisation hypotheses in the literature and empirically investigate them in a cross-country analysis for 17 OECD countries and two time periods, 1997–2007 as well as 2008–17. We find different financialisation measures are only weakly correlated, suggesting the existence of distinct financialisation processes. There is strong evidence that financialisation is linked to asset price inflation and correlated with a debt-driven demand regime. Financial deregulation encourages financialisation. There is limited evidence that market-based financial systems are more financialised. Foreign financial inflows do not seem a main driver. We do not find indication that an investment slowdown precedes financialisation. Our findings suggest financialisation should be understood as a variegated process, playing out differently across economic sectors and countries.     

Financial sector opening and financial constraints: an empirical study based on China’s experiences

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the effect of financial sector opening on financial constraints based on the experiences in China. We firstly review the policy of China’s financial sector opening and set up exogenous policy measures. Then based on the panel data of listed firms from 2010 to 2015, we calculate four indices to measure China’s firm-level financial constraints through internal and external finance channels. We find that China’s financial sector opening alleviates financial constraints and upgrades the financing structure for China’s listed firms. Financial sector opening also eliminates ownership discrimination and promotes financing efficiency, to alleviate financial constraints of private enterprises and profitable enterprises. The mechanism of the effects of financial sector opening on financial constrain is mainly through the collateral channels and the elimination of information asymmetry.