A MODEL OF NEW ZEALAND APPLE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE*

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equations for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given technological change.     

Risk aversion and land allocation between annual and perennial crops in semisubsistence farming: a stochastic optimization approach

This article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops, focusing on a representative farmer's attitude toward risk. A dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting—the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle—is used. The effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer's decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops’ acreage, on the optimal path, is examined. Our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer's attitude toward risk. A risk‐averse or a low‐risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty, while a high‐risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite. Also, due to disutility of farming, the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation. One implication of this research is the need for mechanization—in sub‐Saharan countries in particular—that increases per‐acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture.     

Is native timber tree intercropping an economically feasible alternative for smallholder farmers in the Philippines?

Integration of trees on upland farms in the Philippines has been slower than expected and desirable from an environmental perspective. Our economic and risk analysis points to current policies as part of the problem. The study compares three domesticated indigenous timber trees (Shorea contorta V., Pterocarpus indicus J., and Vitex parviflora W.) intercropped with maize against a benchmark of the widely used exotic mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla K.). We used a biophysical simulation model (WaNuLCAS 3.1) to represent interaction between trees and crops for a fundamental level of water, nutrient and light capture as the basis for production functions. External conditions affecting systems profitability were accounted for in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Elements of risk were introduced through Monte Carlo simulation. Study results revealed that from a farmer’s perspective intercropping systems provide similar (within an uncertainty range of + or ? 10%) returns to monocropping scenarios. When net subsidies and taxes are accounted for, social profitability evaluations favour tree intercropping at high tree densities. The net effect of the current bias in price policies towards food production therefore refrains farmers from making decisions to integrate trees on farms; a decision that is actually in the national interest on economic grounds, even without consideration of positive environmental effects.     

Application of the generalized Faustmann model to uneven-aged forest management

In this paper, a generalized Faustmann model is developed for uneven-aged management to allow the number of years and the level of residual growing stock to vary from one cutting cycle to the next. Comparative static analyses are conducted to determine the effect of changes in interest rate, stumpage price of the trees selected for harvest, the stumpage value of the residual growing stock, and the future land value on the decision variables. The model is then applied to study the uneven-aged management of a loblolly-shortleaf pine stand in south central U.S. to determine the length of the cutting cycle and the level of residual growing stock for the first cutting cycle as well as for a case involving four cutting cycles. Sensitivity analyses reveal that for the uneven-aged loblolly-shortleaf pine stand both the length of the cutting cycle and the level of the residual growing stock are very sensitive to changes in land value in the future, in the stumpage prices of trees selected for harvest, in the stumpage prices of the residual growing stock, and in the interest rate.     

TIME VARYING DEMAND FOR ORANGES IN THE EEC

Orange consumption is of special interest to the EEC since three new citrus-producing countries are scheduled to enter into the community. Demand for sweet oranges has changed over time as EEC trade policies change. Time varying parameters procedures are used to evaluate the dynamics of orange demand in the community of nine. The demand estimates are then used to make consumption projections through 1990. The merits of TVP models are contrasted to those of OLS.     

Factors and scenarios affecting a farmer’s grain harvest logistics

This paper explores how changes in Australia’s grain industry supply chains are likely to impact on the nature and profitability of an Australian farmer’s grain harvest logistics. A simulation model is used to show how receival site rationalisation, cheaper on‐farm storage, larger trucks, higher‐yielding crops and new harvest technologies, separately and in combination, affect the nature and profitability of a farmer’s grain harvest logistics. Applying the model to a typical Australian grain farm shows that many of these changes unambiguously advantage the farm business, and often, the combination of these changes increases a farmer’s harvest profits by at least 10 per cent. For many farmers, the task of efficiently designing and managing harvest logistics will be an increasingly difficult yet important series of choices due to the range of storage options, grain pathways, crop portfolios and market opportunities that are arising. A farmer’s decisions about cost‐effective on‐farm storage and transport, and their judicious use, will be a key contributor to additional profit in future years.     

The Determinants of Firm Profitability Differences in EU Food Processing

This paper decomposes the variance in EU food industry return‐on‐assets into year, country, industry and firm effects using a hierarchical linear model (HLM). The HLM approach accounts for some of the methodological drawbacks of conventional approaches of variance decomposition such as anova and components of variance and additionally allows the estimation of the impact of covariates within each effect level. The results for selected EU countries show that firm effects are far more important than industry structure in determining food industry profitability. In particular, firm size and industry concentration are drivers of profitability while firm risk and age as well as industry growth have a negative influence.     

Adapting the optimal selective-logging of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in NE Spain to increasing CO2 concentrations

Predicted increases in CO₂ concentrations will affect forest ecosystems. In particular, they will impact tree growth, which in turn affects reproduction and mortality and consequently, forest planning. This study integrates different climate change scenarios of future biogeochemical processes and an economic model into a forest management model to determine the optimal selective-logging regime of Scots pine stands. It analyzes the economic implications of the management changes in comparison with the business as usual strategy. Adaption to new climatic conditions shows that it is optimal to increase the number of standing trees and to reduce the age of the logged trees. The results suggest that the failure to adapt the management regime has clear implications on the profitability of forests. Moreover, they show that higher mortality is likely to have a significant impact on the optimal forest management regime.     

Production and Marketing Strategies of Spanish Citrus Farmers

Farmers are constantly exhorted to be good marketers. This research explores the connection between production characteristics and producer business orientation in the Spanish citrus industry. The sector lends itself to this study because it is by far the world's largest exporter of fresh oranges and mandarins, and yet has been criticised for fundamental weaknesses not only in the structure of production systems but also in the patterns of marketing activity. Survey data from Valencia are used to test the assumption that specialised producers also possess enirepreneurial attitudes and attributes. Cluster analysis is used to identify strategic groups of producers according to production characteristics and producer business orientation. The complexity of the industry is found to defy simple polar hypotheses about “good” and “weak” structures and strategies.     

TRENDS IN FOOD MARKETING IN THE UNITED STATES

This article discusses some major trends in food marketing in the United States, as revealed in a detailed study of food distribution undertaken by the National Commission on Food Marketing. Attention is focused on the growing industrialisation of farming and the consequent decline in terminal auction markets; the increasing role of new product development in ensuring profitability of food processors. Trends in the food retailing industry are also discussed and compared with conditions prevailing in Australia.     

Comparing the Profitability of a Greenhouse to a Vertical Farm in Quebec

Rapidly growing demand for year‐round fresh food, regardless of the weather or climate, is driving demand for controlled environment agriculture systems. Sales from greenhouses (GHs) are growing at 8.8%, while sales from vertical farms (VFs) are growing at 30%. It is commonly believed in industry circles that a VF cannot economically compete with a GH, due to the high cost of powering artificial lighting. Nonetheless, researchers have yet to analyze the economics underlying a VF, let alone compare the profitability of a VF to that of a GH. This research gap is particularly relevant to Canada, as it is uniquely positioned to be a leader in the VF market. Below, we report the results of a detailed simulation of the profitability of growing lettuce in a VF and in a GH located near Quebec City. Surprisingly, we find that the costs to both equip and run the two facilities are very similar, while the gross profit is slightly higher for the VF.     

Greenhouse gas and groundwater recharge abatement benefits of tree crops in south-western Australian farming systems

The indirect benefits of a commercial tree crop for greenhouse gas and groundwater recharge abatement are analysed. Oil mallees are introduced into a whole-farm linear programming model as a source of income, an offset to greenhouse gas emissions from the mixed sheep and cropping enterprises and as a source of groundwater recharge abatement. The profitability of oil mallees is found to be very sensitive to the discount rate, yield and price assumptions and the relative profitability of other farm enterprises (especially the wool enterprise). Under standard assumptions where oil mallees are profitable, the trees significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater recharge and the farm remains profitable. If farm-level policies are introduced for greenhouse gas abatement, without tree crops or some other technological change, the current farming systems would fail and be replaced by alternative land uses.     

Modernization of a peasant crop in Colombia: evidence and implications

The survival of the small-farm sector in the process of agricultural modernization in Latin America has been a concern for many authors and institutions. It is generally believed that the small-farm sector is bypassed in the process of agricultural development. The authors analyze modernization of bean/maize cropping systems in Southern Colombia. Prices, production practices and profitability are compared for 1975 and 1989. By means of a production function, the effects of allocative efficiency, technical efficiency and technical change on productivity and profitability are analyzed. The observed changes reflect very well the price trends over the period. Between 1975 and 1989, total factor productivity increased by 50%. Bean/maize producers almost doubled returns to land and labor. Increased technical efficiency had most effect on profitability, followed by technical change. Allocative efficiency had more impact on yields than on profitability because it was associated with high input costs. Considerable opportunities for further productivity increases were identified. Conclusions on the nature of the modernization process are drawn. Implications for agricultural policy, research and the role of the small farm in agricultural development are derived.     

Elasticity of demand for Australian cotton in Japan

Although a relatively small producer, Australia exports more than 90 per cent of its cotton production, making it the world's third largest cotton exporter in recent years. This means that export performance plays a major role in determining the profitability of the Australian cotton industry. The primary aim of this study was to determine the competitive position of Australian cotton in the Japanese market, based on the original non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System model using data from 1972 to 1998. The main findings are that the USA had a relatively strong market position and that Australia needs to improve its cost competitiveness and quality image to advance its market standing.     

食用菌种植户的生存策略研究——以山东省为例

作为农业循环经济的代表性产业,中国食用菌产业近年来发展迅速,产业结构出现了新变化,工厂化大规模集中生产方式发展较快。但近三年的产量数据表明,我国食用菌产业的生产主体仍是以家庭为生产单位的种植户。通过实地调研与对比观察法,文章分析了山东省食用菌种植户的相对优势、自身缺陷及生存战略,并提出了对策建议。文章首先指出,食用菌种植户的竞争优势在于低生产成本与高生产灵活性。继而分析了影响种植户生存能力的负面因素,即:议价能力低、技术与操作水平低、外部交易成本高、销售渠道有限、抵御市场风险能力差。并指出为了提高生存能力,种植户采取了差异竞争、合作化及多元经营的生存策略。最后,从进一步降低成本与优化合作模式的角度提出了加强种植户生存能力的对策建议:指出循环利用工厂化企业废弃菌棒与杂菌污染菌棒可以有效降低生产成本;并提出在合作社发展基础薄弱的地区率先发展"农户+议价合作社+公司"的合作模式,在基础较好的地区大力推行"农户+合作社+超市"的合作模式。     

Small U.S. dairy farms: can they compete?

The U.S. dairy industry is undergoing rapid structural change, evolving from a structure including many small farmers in the Upper Midwest and Northeast to one that includes very large farms in new production regions. Small farms are struggling to retain competitiveness via improved management and low‐input systems. Using data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, we determine the extent of U.S. conventional and pasture‐based milk production during 2003–2007, and estimate net returns, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency associated with the systems across different operation sizes. We compare the financial performance of small conventional and pasture‐based producers with one another and with large‐scale producers. A stochastic production frontier is used to analyze performance over the period for conventional and pasture technologies identified using a binomial logit model. Large conventional farms generally outperformed smaller farms using most economic measures—technical efficiency, various profitability measures, and returns to scale.     

Profitability of incremental generic promotion of Australian dairy products

The motivation for this study rests on two factors. First, Australian dairy farmers spend around $20 million annually on generic promotion and estimates of the returns from this expenditure are required to facilitate efficient investment decisions. Second, while the Australian dairy industry has been highly regulated, there has been a substantial reduction in assistance over the past decade and farm‐gate milk prices were deregulated on 1 July 2000. The profit potential of promotion may vary with the degree of regulation, so past estimates of the returns from promotion may not hold in the competitive environment of the future. Hence, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of government intervention on the profitability for dairy farmers of incremental changes in generic dairy promotion expenditure using a perfectly competitive market as a reference point. Competitive market price and quantity outcomes for the Australian dairy industry are estimated. The impacts of increments in dairy product and competing product generic promotion expenditures on dairy farmers’ profits are assessed using equilibrium displacement modelling. Finally, graphical procedures are used to examine the effects of dairy industry regulation on the profitability of dairy promotion.     

A Cost‐Based Model of Seasonal Production with Application to Milk Policy

Milk production is seasonal in many European countries. While quantity seasonality poses capacity management problems for dairy processors, an EU policy goal is to reduce price seasonality. After developing a model of endogenous seasonality, we study the effects of three EU policies on production decisions. These are private storage subsidies, production removals, and production quotas. When cost functions are seasonal in a specified way, then arbitrage opportunities interact with storage subsidies to reduce both price and consumption seasonality. But production seasonality is likely to increase because storage subsidies promote temporal market integration. Conditions are identified under which product market interventions increase quantity seasonality.     

中国北方苹果连阴雨灾害时空分布特征

目的 苹果是一种经济林果,其品质和产量对果园效益和当地经济发展至关重要。连阴雨灾害是影响苹果品质和产量的主要灾害之一。通过分析1982—2018年苹果生长季连阴雨灾害时空分布特征,探讨连阴雨灾害对苹果生长发育的影响,以期为苹果生产布局、产业优化和果园防灾减灾提供指导。方法 文章基于1982—2018年中国北方地区186个站点的气象数据和苹果发育期数据,选取始花—幼果期、着色—成熟期和采收期3个生育阶段,结合连阴雨灾害指标,分析苹果不同生育阶段连阴雨灾害时空变化特征。结果 空间上,苹果各生育阶段连阴雨灾害主要发生在东南区域,着色—成熟期和采收期是灾害发生的主要生育阶段,连阴雨过程均降水量、过程均天数、频率和年均过程次数均呈现由东南至西北逐渐减小的趋势;时间上,1982—2018年连阴雨过程均降水量、连阴雨发生总次数和灾害强度呈现年际间波动。对比3个生育阶段历年连阴雨灾害统计情况可知,多数年份着色—成熟期和采收期连阴雨灾害发生总次数、过程均降水量和灾害强度均高于始花—幼果期,且着色—成熟期和采收期连阴雨灾害变化趋势基本一致。结论 1982—2018年中国北方苹果连阴雨灾害发生概率极小,且灾害发生区域集中,主要受降水量分布和季节变化的影响。     

Behind the ‘creative destruction’ of human diets: An analysis of the structure and market dynamics of the ultra-processed food manufacturing industry and implications for public health

A global transition towards diets increasingly dominated by ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has occurred in recent decades to the detriment of public health and the environment. This study aimed to examine long-term trends in the structure and market dynamics of the global UPF manufacturing industry as part of broader efforts to understand the drivers of this transition. Using diverse methods, metrics and data sources, we examined several dimensions (e.g., industry concentration and profitability) according to an adapted structure–conduct–performance model. We found that the global UPF manufacturing industry has evolved to become a major component of global food systems, with its longstanding dominant corporations becoming some of the system's largest accumulators of profit and distributors of capital. It follows that reversing the global UPF dietary transition will require structural and regulatory changes to ensure that population diets, and food systems more broadly, are not subordinated to the interests of powerful for-profit business corporations.