Geldpolitik und Nachhaltigkeit

Wirtschaftsdienst - ECB President Christine Lagarde and others have suggested that climate change creates risks for price stability and for the viability of counterparties to central bank...     

Do the COVID-19 Crisis,Ageing and Climate Change Put Swiss Fiscal Sustainability at Risk?

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic crisis as well as demographic and climate change pose major challenges for public finances. This article deals with the implications of demographic trends in Switzerland, i.e. the progressive ageing of the population and its impact on the country’s public finances in the long run. As the analysis shows, the brunt of the demographic burden is borne by the old-age pension scheme, health and long-term care. This article also addresses the financial ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis and shows the need for economic policy action over the longer term to ensure the sustainability of public finances in Switzerland. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment of climate change is included, as it constitutes an additional major long-term challenge for public finances.

     

Analyst earnings forecast precision and local advantage: evidence from American depositary receipt firms

Prior research has documented a finding that local analysts provide more accurate earnings forecasts than nonlocal analysts in many settings. However, little is known about local and nonlocal analysts’ relative earnings forecast abilities for ADR stocks. In this study, we find that the local advantage disappears for ADR stocks and that nonlocal analysts in fact outperform local ones in this case. We investigate the source of this ‘local disadvantage’ and find evidence against hypotheses based on accounting standards and exchange rates. We document that the local advantage decreases with increased investor interest in foreign firms, consistent with our nonlocal investors’ interest hypothesis.     

What's on the Menu? Policies to Reduce Young People's Sugar Consumption

Young people in the UK consume far above the maximum recommended levels of added sugar. It is likely that neither they nor their parents fully take account of the future health, social and economic costs of this high sugar consumption. This provides a rationale for policy intervention. The majority of young people's added sugar consumption occurs in the home, where purchases are typically made by parents. This means that understanding the purchase decisions of adults is important for policy design, even if the policies aim to reduce the consumption of young people. We discuss the merits of popular policies, including taxes, advertising restrictions and restrictions on the availability of specific foods, and we identify promising avenues for future research.     

Behavioral agency and corporate entrepreneurship: CEO equity incentives & competitive behavior

Scholars have long studied drivers of entrepreneurial behavior among established firms. Yet little is known about how individual factors shape a firm’s choice to pursue entrepreneurship. We draw on behavioral agency theory to explore the role of equity incentives in driving corporate entrepreneurship. Our findings suggest CEOs avoid corporate entrepreneurial behaviors as their option wealth increases. However industry dynamics also prove to be an important contingency when predicting the effects of both restricted stock and stock options on the likelihood that the CEO engages in corporate entrepreneurship. Our findings provide a theoretical platform for predicting dimensions of entrepreneurial behavior and highlight effects of CEO equity ownership.

     

Jensen's alpha and the market‐timing puzzle

Theory predicts that market‐timing activities bias Jensen's alpha (JA). However, empirical studies have failed to find consistent evidence of this bias. We tackle this puzzle in a nested model analysis and show that the bias contains an exogenous market component that is unrelated to market‐timing skill. In a comprehensive empirical analysis of US mutual funds, we find that the timing‐induced bias in JA is mainly driven by this market component, which is uncorrelated with measured timing activities. Measures of total performance that allow for timing activities are virtually identical to JA, even if timing activities are present in the evaluated fund. Hence, we conclude that JA is a sufficient measure of total performance.     

Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization with application to knowledge diffusion in rural India

Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and intra‐household observations are combined in estimating the direct knowledge gain from watching an info‐movie in rural India, while randomized village assignment identifies knowledge sharing. Simulations on synthetic data and econometric tests provide support for the estimation method. We find evidence of information sharing, but far less so for disadvantaged groups, such as illiterate and lower‐caste individuals; these groups rely more on actually seeing the movie. Our results are consistent with sizeable biases in ordinary least squares, matching or instrumental variable impact estimators that ignore within‐cluster spillovers.     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.