国家规模、对外开放度与汇率制度的选择——基于福利的数量分析

本文在“新开放经济宏观经济学”框架下建立了基于名义工资粘性的两国一般均衡随机模型，从生产率和货币冲击角度定量分析了国家规模与对外开放度在不同汇率制度下对福利的影响。结果显示，别国相对本国经济规模与本国开放度的乘积越大，即本国越小或对外依存度越大，则本国越倾向于选择浮动汇率；反之，则倾向于选择固定汇率。     

我国货币深化对社会阶层分化的影响

正"货币深化陷阱"现象值得高度关注近年来,我国广义货币M2的增长速度持续高于经济增长速度,货币发行与经济增长之间呈现"剪刀差效应",货币深化度(通常而言,M2/GDP代表了一个经济体的金融参与实体经济发展的程度,即货币深化度)持续增长。1996年货币深化度超过100%;2002年货币深化度超过150%;2012年广义货币M2达到97.4万亿元,发行规模全球第一,货币深化度超过180%(如图一)。     

货币供应量的内生性质对货币政策工具的影响

内生货币供给理论认为货币是由实际或名义经济变量决定的内生变量,本文从基础货币、货币乘数、以及金融创新和金融深化等方面出发讨论了货币供给的内生性质,并指出这种内生性对货币中介目标选取的影响。     

货币供应量对我国房地产市场的溢出效应——基于DSGE模型的仿真分析

随着房地产市场与资本市场以及实体经济的关联度愈发紧密，探究货币供应量对房地产市场的溢出效应对于未来提高货币政策传导效率、促进经济平稳运行有着现实意义。通过构建包含房地产中间厂商的DSGE模型，探求货币供应量对房地产市场的影响机制与影响程度，为此在模型中引入货币冲击的外生冲击变量，以更好地模拟现实经济运行机制。仿真分析结果发现，货币供应量不直接影响房地产市场，主要通过利率水平下降与物价水平上升等传导路径对房地产市场产生正向冲击，并且这一间接影响期限短、程度深。为了促进房地产市场的健康发展，以研究结论为现实指导，从控制货币供应量、开发多样化金融产品和加强境外资金流入管理三方面提出针对房地产市场的监管策略。     

我国经济发展中金融深化效用的实证分析

本文在金融效率的经济增长模型基础上建立经济计量模型，验证了我国金融深化因素对经济增长的效用。通过实证分析笔者认为，积极发展非银行金融对我国的经济发展具有十分重要的作用，同时要改善我国的货币结构，逐步实行利率市场化和放开汇率，由市场来调节资金的供求。     

中国货币供应量政策实证评析

货币供应量是否合适，可以从实际货币供应量与中性货币供应量差异的角度来进行分析。中性货币供应量是指与一国经济自然增长率和正常货币深化系数相适应的货币供应量。本文通过中国改革开放以来的经验数据计算出中国经济的自然增长率和货币深化系数，从而得出相应的中性货币供应量。在此基础上，本文给出了一个评价中国货币政策的分析框架，并据此对中国改革开放以来的货币政策进行评价和提出相应的政策建议。     

中国"未观测货币资金": 测估理论与方法

民间借贷、企业非正规融资等未观测金融活动对货币供给的影响还是一个谜。本文试图在前人对中国超额货币供给研究的基础上，采用非经济因素吸收分析法，测估未观测货币资金规模。与已有研究相比，本文侧重于未观测经济金融因素对货币吸收的分析，通过分解非经济因素，测算未观测经济金融因素吸收的货币规模。通过实证研究发现，2001年以来，未观测货币资金总量扩张较快，从6000多亿元扩大到近1万亿元。表明非正规金融活动进入新的活跃期，建议宏观调控和金融监管过程应关注未观测金融的影响。     

股票基本定价与定价模型的选择

现代市场经济发展的主要方面之一是金融发展。在发达的市场经济条件下,每个国家、企业和个人的经济活动都离不开金融。人们从事金融活动的欲望越强烈,社会资本积累的速度就越快。尤其在资本总量一定的情况下,金融活动越活跃,货币与资本市场越发达,资金的使用效率就越高。经济发展水平高,人们对投资与储蓄的要求就会多样化,从而也会促进金融工具创新的多样化,导致融资方式和融资渠道多样化,而金融的发展,又可以加速经济     

金融深化、经济增长与城市化的效应分析

本文通过实证研究得出：经济增长与城市化存在双向因果关系；金融深化与城市化存在双向因果关系。金融深化是城市快速成长的动因之一，城市化又进一步促进金融深化。这一结论给城市化进程要与社会协调发展相适应提供了实证支持，同时也支持了金融是现代经济的核心和纽带的观点。     

论亚元合作及我国的对策

在东亚（包括东盟和中日韩）区域经济一体化不断加强、区域经济关联度不断提高的情形下，加强东亚货币合作，构建东亚单一货币区是大势所趋。文章对东亚货币合作的理论基础进行阐述，对东亚货币合作的条件进行分析，进而提出东亚货币合作机制和我国的对策。     

金融开放、技术创新与产业结构调整——基于中等收入国家的分析

从金融开放对于经济结构转型的复杂影响角度出发,探讨扩大金融开放程度是否会促进经济结构转型,研究发现:(1)金融开放与产业结构调整之间呈现倒U型关系。金融开放对产业结构调整的过程中,金融开放存在一个最佳的限度;(2)在金融开放作用于产业结构的过程中,技术创新起到了显著的中介作用。因此,大力推进金融体系改革,提升我国金融发展质量,进而循序渐进推进金融开放,重视技术创新的中介作用对于我国经济结构转型意义重大。     

Financial openness and Chinese regional growth imbalance: New insight from spatial spillovers

This paper uses spatial panel methods and Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2017 to study the spatial spillovers of financial openness on economic growth. The results show, first, a positive direct effect and an overall negative spatial spillover of financial openness on provincial growth. Second, there are two spatial spillover channels: a positive growth externality and a harmful resource competition among provinces. Third, we estimate the state dependence and dynamics of spatial spillover, and find that the negative spatial spillover is smaller in provinces with high levels of financial openness and in the long term; thus, the negative spatial spillover declined over time. These results are robust to the choice of SDM and GNS spatial econometrics methods and under different spatial weight matrices.     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

Predictability in sovereign bond returns using technical trading rules: Do developed and emerging markets differ?

The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in each class. Empirical results show that (i) investing in sovereign bond markets is predictable, based on the buy-sell signals generated by trading rules, with the predictability of the emerging Asian markets being significantly higher than those of the advanced markets; (ii) the predictability is generally higher when the US tightens its monetary policies or undergoes recession or a financial crisis; (iii) two-thirds of sovereign bond markets have a higher predictability when we use a machine learning algorithm to determine the best trading rule strategy; and (iv) the predictability of a sovereign bond market is higher when the economy has a less effective government, lower regulatory quality, lower degree of financial openness, higher political risk, lower income and faster real money growth. Our results suggest that shocks originating from US monetary policy or economic conditions could have a considerable spillover effect on sovereign bond markets, particularly the emerging Asian markets.     

Economic growth,volatility and their interaction: What’s the role of finance?

This paper examines the relation between financial depth and the interaction of economic growth and its volatility. We use a sample of 52 countries for the period 1980–2011, and our main finding is that, at moderate levels of financial depth, further deepening increases the ratio of average growth to volatility; however, as financial depth increases, this relation reverts, and the rise in volatility overcomes that of economic growth. This result is obtained both in the medium and long run; however, the peak of the relation seems to be lower in the medium run (around 40%–55% of domestic credit/GDP) than in the long run (around 75%–99%). This suggests that increasing the level of domestic credit may intensify relative volatility in the medium term, but still raise relative long-term growth before the long-run threshold is achieved.     

Openness and the speed of adjustment in the money market

In an effort to fight inflation or recession, central banks manipulate the money supply. The speed with which a change in money supply could affect price level and the level of production differs from one country to another, depending on rigidities. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the adjustment speed among the mentioned macro variables is higher in countries that are more open. Using the bounds-testing approach, a relatively new approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we estimate the speed of adjustment in the money market in 28 developing countries. A simple cross-sectional model is utilized in which the measure of adjustment speed is related to three different measures of openness. Regardless of the measure used, a significant and positive relationship exists between adjustment speed and the measure of openness.     

金融新常态与经济新常态的协同发展分析——兼论金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程

本文以金融抑制为研究主线,并作为经济新常态、金融新常态和金融供给侧结构性改革的结合点,解读金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程并寻找金融新常态的现实依据,论述金融新常态与经济新常态的协同关系。结论如下:金融供给侧结构性改革效果良好,金融抑制的解除取得显著成效;我国金融发展步入新常态,且中国金融体系和金融发展具有内在稳定性;金融新常态与经济新常态相伴而生,金融新常态既是经济新常态的必然结果,也是经济新常态的客观表现。根据经济发展和金融供给侧结构性改革的历史经验,适应经济新常态、稳步推进金融供给侧结构性改革的建议为:在深化金融改革的同时,突出政府、市场和社会的协同作用;从内外两个角度实施金融供给侧结构性改革;中央和地方在解除金融抑制和深化金融改革时,应充分把控速度和质量,逐步推进金融供给侧结构性改革。     

Equity market and money supply spillovers and economic growth in BRICS economies: A global vector autoregressive approach

Previous studies report that private credit as a proxy of financial development contributes to economic growth in BRICS economies. This paper employs three additional measures of financial development, namely equity market, money supply and market capitalization, and further investigates cross-country evidence on the impact of equity market and money supply spillovers on economic growth in BRICS economies. Utilizing a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) framework and quarterly data from 1989Q1 and to 2012Q4 from BRICS economies, we find that equity market and money supply variables do not predict the contributions of financial development in each BRICS member in boosting economic growth in the other member countries. However, market capitalization significantly influences economic growth. These results suggest that, besides private credit, market capitalization is another key channel of promoting growth in individual economies and the region. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

The effect of investors’ confidence on monetary policy transmission mechanism: A Multivariate GARCH approach

This paper investigates the financial stability’s effect on the monetary policy transmission mechanisms. The correlations between investors’ confidence in the markets, money growth and economic growth are analyzed along with the correlations within their volatilities. Specifically, the heteroskedasticity of the errors is exploited in a Multivariate GARCH framework to obtain endogenously estimated measures of uncertainty. By a two-step estimator, the indirect interplay of money growth and financial markets is highlighted at different time horizons. The results contrast previous literature supportive of the “Great Moderation” as causing the recent financial crisis. Effectively, by accounting for the breaks in volatility series due to structural shifts in monetary policy, a low period of macroeconomic volatility is found not to drive directly low financial stability.     

基于自回归模型的金砖国家金融发展对实体经济的影响研究

为了研究金融市场发展对实体经济增长的影响,运用广义矩阵方法和扩展的内生增长模型对金融市场指标的有效性进行评估研究。研究发现,金砖国家私营信贷部门的信贷水平和资本深度有助于提高实体经济的增长水平。实体经济的增长对金融发展的依赖性较大,两者之间具有正相关性。