现代金融系统的溶解性扩散特征及其监管策略

美国次债危机为全世界展现了现代金融系统惊心动魄的一面,经过不断创新发展而来的金融系统其所遵循的规律是否已经悄然发生了改变令人深思.本文通过溶解性扩散模型的建立和分析,揭示了以资产证券化和金融衍生工具为主要特征的现代金融市场的崭新特质:溶解性扩散的系统特征以及系统函数中收益变量与风险变量分别在不同时间赋值的内源机制.同时,以抽象的视角将市场参与者的境况概念化为创造者偏好和观察者困境的外源因素.在这种内源机制和外源因素的相互作用下,市场将形成无法克服的天然缺陷:风险导入的必然性、风险放大的必然性和信息的不完全.市场风险的形成已经无法用传统信息不对称原理作圆满的解释.针对于此,本文提出了全新的监管原理和监管策略.     

从美国金融危机看信用衍生工具的真实风险

信用衍生工具作为风险管理的一大创新,成功地将信用风险与市场风险分离,为商业银行风险管理另辟蹊径.然而,此次始于美国的金融危机中,信用衍生工具扮演了放大风险,加剧市场波动的负面角色.包括雷曼兄弟、AIG等诸多市场参与者大量使用信用衍生工具进行投机活动,并以信用衍生工具为基础包装出CDO等高风险产品,造成了金融市场的巨大波动.我国正处于金融系统变革的关键时期,金融创新和信用风险的规避与转移无疑是其中的重要内容.本文全面梳理了在金融危机中信用衍生工具的风险传导和扩散功能,通过剖析其运作原理,总结其潜在的流动性风险、定价风险、操作风险等,提出我国拟逐渐开展信用衍生工具的政策建议,以期对我国推行金融创新、发展健康的信用衍生品市场有所裨益.     

我国金融衍生市场放开、有序竞争与规范发展

随着《金融机构衍生产品交易业务管理暂行办法》的出台和实施 ,我国金融衍生市场放开的步伐加快了 ,竞争加剧了。但金融衍生市场的过快开放很可能引发无序竞争 ,加剧衍生市场的风险 ,不利于金融衍生市场的健康有序发展。实行动态式监管 ,完善信息披露有助于防范和化解整个金融衍生市场无序竞争所产生的风险 ,培育理性的机构投资者也是增强衍生市场有序竞争的基础     

商业银行运用衍生产品管理市场风险探讨

衍生产品是把"双刃剑",是金融创新的产物,既可以提高金融市场的配置效率,又可以扩大金融市场风险的传导.本文分析了商业银行运用衍生产品管理市场风险的效能,并结合目前经济形势对我国商业银行运用衍生产品必须遵守的原则进行了初步探讨.     

金融衍生产品风险度量:从灵敏度到VaR

目前我国金融衍生市场面临着快速发展的机遇。金融衍生产品的虚拟性、表外性、高杠杆性以及结构的复杂性等特点使之风险度量难度很大。文章探讨了用灵敏度和VaR度量金融衍生产品风险的理论与方法,并对VaR作为一种风险管理思想和体系的功能进行了阐述。     

探析关于产生经济危机的因素及对策

次级贷款危机起源于结构化融资的债务抵押证券(MBS),本文通过分析结构化融资的实质,揭示危机发生的原因是泡沫化的房地产价格和CDO、CDS等衍生工具的运用,追求超额利润的衍生产品把风险扩散到了整个金融领域。我们应该避免由于贪婪带来的资产泡沫,追求实体经济的切实增长。     

经济危机产生的原因及其对策

次级贷款危机起源于结构化融资的债务抵押证券(MBS),本文通过分析结构化融资的实质,揭示危机发生的原因是泡沫化的房地产价格和CDO、CDS等衍生工具的运用,追求超额利润的衍生产品把风险扩散到了整个金融领域。我们应该避免由于贪婪而带来的资产泡沫,追求实体经济的切实增长。     

对我国金融衍生产品审计的思考

20世纪90年代,伴随着国际金融市场上一系列后果严重的风险事件,金融衍生工具这个概念逐步进入人们的视野.在金融自由化浪潮的推动下,金融衍生产品异军突起,各种衍生品交易已经在金融市场上占据了举足轻重的地位.我国的"327"风波与英国巴林银行倒闭几乎同时发生,住友事件、大和事件、奥兰治事件也让我们对金融衍生工具更加关注.     

基于风险转移模型的次贷危机传导研究

利用金融体系风险转移模型及其对风险分担和金融稳定性的影响的理论分析了美国次贷危机中的风险分担和风险传导。分析表明,银行体系的激进性贷款行为和恶意转移风险的道德风险促成了次贷危机的生成与传导;而金融市场的衍生产品创新在转移和分散风险的同时,也放大了美国次贷危机的风险。     

后金融危机时代中国发展股指期货的内在逻辑

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,导致了全球对于金融衍生产品的深刻反思.实际上,从金融衍生市场看,此次金融危机主要由场外交易市场引发的,大家对金融衍生品的交易所市场和场外交易市场必须作适当区分,正确认识不同市场对金融市场带来的不同影响.可以说,在开始冷静反思金融危机的后金融危机时期,金融市场在危机时期的大幅波动更加凸显了中国金融市场对于股指期赁等场内金融衍生品的需求更为迫切.     

信用衍生产品定价理论概述

信用衍生品作为现代金融市场中重要的转移,对冲信用风险的工具,在近期的金融危机中扮演了重要的角色。如何有效地对这些信用衍生品进行有效的定价成为国内外学者研究这次金融危机起因和它对日后金融市场的启示的重要切入点。通过信息完全性方面不同的视角系统的梳理和回顾了近几十年来的主流信用衍生品定价理论,并对未来该理论的发展趋势进行评述与总结。     

金融衍生品经济无限制膨胀是美国次贷危机、环球金融震荡的直接祸根

美国“次贷”危机的核心特徵是：“次贷”转为“次债”CDOs；从间接融资领域追入直接融资的资本市场领域；从美国金融市场跨越到国际金融市场；骨牌效应前所未有，皆归因于近年来美国金融衍生品经济的无限制膨胀。金融衍生品不断创新与发展基于上世纪70年代金汇兑本位货币制度的崩溃，是自由市场经济为解决自身矛盾在金融领域高度发展的必然结果。金融衍生品经济为发达市场经济运行带来了正效应，但其本质是虚拟经济运行，对实体经济必然呈现反向“锋刃”。近15年的环球金融风暴，无处不见发达市场经济金融衍生品泛滥的身影；规避的根本途径是：第一，约束发达市场经济国家金融衍生品经济的发展规模，其实体经济总规模应是“虚拟经济”交易总规模的理论最高值；第二，重建环球市场经济体系中的货币稳定机制与汇率稳定机制，建议建立环球中央银行，并构建环球中央银行的“基础货币”即国际通行储备货币与国际金融平衡调节货币。     

Why Crisis Continue?——The Endogenous Reason of Financial Crisis and Evolution to the Debt Crisis and the Enlightenment

当前欧债危机越演越烈,需要重新思考金融危机爆发并且演化为主权债务危机的内生性根源.此次金融危机中,资本主义社会的基本矛盾是危机发生的制度性根源.这一矛盾外化为“相对过剩”.经济机制层面,新自由主义影响下的自由市场经济体制放大了市场经济固有的缺陷,为危机的爆发积累了机制性原因.微观市场层面,缺乏金融监管、不当的房地产和货币政策则是诱发危机的直接原因.高赤字和高负债的背景下,一些国内经济和社会矛盾突出的国家发生主权债务危机是金融危机深化的必然结果.处理好自由市场经济和规制市场经济、金融创新和金融监管、实体经济和虚拟经济的关系以及地方债务问题是此次金融和债务危机给我国的最大启示.     

基于信用创造机制下金融衍生工具交易后风险分类及法律监管

金融衍生市场具有信用创造功能,其货币创造原理、抵押品、证券化程度以及对信用扩张能力与商业银行传统的信用创造机制相比有很大的区别。独特的信用创造机制放大了金融衍生工具交易后面临的市场风险、信用风险、流动性风险、法律风险,从而增加了系统性危机发生的可能性。重新构建我国金融衍生工具交易后监管的框架,是达到对系统性风险有效监控的必然选择。     

金融危机的成因分析

金融危机已经进入尾声,这次金融危机的成因表面来看是美国的次级贷危机引起的,但是本次金融危机根本原因是一次金融投机家的投机行为,其目的是为了打压美国证券期货市场赚取高额的利润差价。本次金融危机发生前后,没有世界范围的经济衰退、大规模的战争、大规模的自然灾害,由此证明此次金融危机主要原因不是市场自身造成的,反推证明本次金融危机是一次人为投机因素产生的。另外,通过大量分析推论世界范围内本年度第二季度的各项经济指标将好于第一季度。     

Financial constraints on export market exit of domestic firms versus foreign multinational corporation subsidiaries in South Korea

Using a Korean manufacturing firm-level data set covering a range of years from 2006 to 2013, this study investigates how the financial condition of firms, such as liquidity, leverage, and cash flow ratio, affects exit from export markets. It also analyses whether the financial status of foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries differs from that of domestic firms with respect to the hazard of export market exit, especially during a global financial crisis. The empirical results confirm that, for domestic firms, the hazard of export market exit is affected by the firms’ financial condition only during a financial crisis. In other words, the financial vulnerability of domestic firms increases during the crisis, resulting in the hazard of export market exit. However, financial situations for foreign MNC subsidiaries do not affect exits from export markets, indicating a ‘finance-factor comparative advantage’.     

美国次贷危机下的中国金融衍生品市场监管国际模式选择

由美国次贷危机引起的全球性金融危机已经全面蔓延,本文分析了金融衍生品与这次金融危机的关系,总结了金融衍生品的特性和各国对市场较典型的三种监管模式,比较其中利弊,并结合中国金融衍生品市场的现状探讨其监管模式的建立和完善。     

The role of controls in the international financial crisis

The impact of the great financial crisis that started in the United States with the implosion of “subprime” loans has drawn the public’s attention on one of the most innovative branches of financial market, the famous derivatives. The financial crisis and the involvement of major banking institutions thus call for some thinking about the concept of control in Italy and in a globalized world. In Italy, even though the scale of the risks connected with transactions in derivatives is limited, some banks may have damaged their reputations by pushing complex derivative products onto unwitting clients. Apart from reassurance and all kinds of justifications, and without arguing whether this was deliberate or not, the monetary authorities, Consob, and ABI have clearly reported the risk of a world financial crisis too late.

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

Capital flows to an emerging financial market in Turkey

Increased globalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey. This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore, the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since 1995. This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted.