Precautionary Demand and Liquidity in Payment Systems

In large‐value real‐time gross settlement payment systems, banks rely heavily on incoming funds to finance outgoing payments. Such reliance necessitates a high degree of coordination and synchronization. We construct a model of a payment system calibrated for the U.S. Fedwire system and examine the impact of realistic disruptions motivated by the recent financial crisis. In such settings, individually cautious behavior can have a significant and detrimental impact on the overall functioning of the payment system through a multiplier effect. Our results quantify the mutually reinforcing nature of greater caution, and allow comparative statics analysis of shifts in key parameters.     

An IFRS 2 and FASB 123 (R) Compatible Model for the Valuation of Employee Stock Options

In this paper, we show how employee stock options can be valued under the new reporting standards IFRS 2 and FASB 123 (revised) for share-based payments. Both standards require companies to expense employee stock options at fair value. We propose a new valuation model, referred to as Enhanced American model, that complies with the new standards and produces fair values often lower than those generated by traditional models such as the Black–Scholes model or the adjusted Black–Scholes model. We also provide a sensitivity analysis of model input parameters and analyze the impact of the parameters on the fair value of the option. The valuation of employee stock options requires an accurate estimation of the exercise behavior. We show how the exercise behavior can be modeled in a binomial tree and demonstrate the relevance of the input parameters in the calibration of the model to an estimated expected life of the option. JEL Classification G13, G30     

Insurance law and incomplete contracts

We analyze how insurance law can mitigate moral hazard by allowing insurers to reduce or cancel coverage in some circumstances. We consider an incomplete contract setting in which the insurer may obtain information related to the policyholder's behavior through a costly audit of the circumstances of the loss. Court decisions are based on a standard of proof such as the balance of probabilities. We show that an optimal insurance law brings efficiency gains compared to the no-audit case. We also highlight the conditions under which the burden of proof should be on the insured, provided that insurers are threatened with sanctions for bad faith.     

“Non‐Financial” Is a Misnomer,but Doesn't Have to Be a Missed Opportunity

With enterprise values now representing increasing multiples of companies' net book assets, investors are clearly looking beyond financial reporting for enhanced insights and understanding of when and how companies are adding value. This shift includes growing attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) information. Although ESG data presents its own unique challenges, dismissing it as “non‐financial” can be misleading. When explicitly linked to a company's long‐term value creation strategy, ESG information can serve as a valuable input to more farsighted financial analysis. Market‐driven initiatives, notably that of the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), aim to standardize a subset of business‐critical, industry‐specific sustainability data for investors. Research indicates such approaches can generate positive outcomes not only for providers of financial capital, but for their portfolio companies and markets in general. In illustrating these concepts, the authors explore ESG impacts in three sectors and industries, while examining how access to consistent, comparable, reliable sustainability information in those sectors can augment an analysis of traditional business fundamentals. One example focuses on water management in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, a major environmental issue where geographic considerations can shed light on company‐specific exposures to cost increases, production disruptions, increased CapEx and R&D spending, as well as the potential for asset write‐downs. In the Food & Beverage sector, health and nutrition concerns are shown to be changing consumer preferences, triggering regulatory action, and reshaping companies' product portfolios—with significant implications for the companies' brand values and ability to compete for market share. Finally, in Aerospace & Defense, lapses in business ethics such as bribery of government officials present a governance challenge that comes with the risk of value‐destroying fines and penalties and, even more significant, associated reductions in revenues.     

Developing critical thinking: An examination of contemporary practices in accounting

Employers and professional bodies call for higher education accounting courses to emphasise the importance of critical thinking skills. This study provides an in-depth assessment of how critical thinking is currently taught and assessed across an entire accounting degree. Our study contributes to our understanding of how teaching and assessment can support students in developing their critical thinking. Using a case study approach, we identify resource restraints and disruptions to traditional forms of engagement as key challenges to developing critical thinking skills in accounting education. We conclude with suggestions for teaching practice, such as formative scaffolds and teacher-led discussions.     

Confidence,knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation

This article considers how risks are responded to through behavioral adaptations and avoidance strategies. We observe that such behavior can become totemistic and have a limited relationship to the risk it ostensibly answers to. Drawing upon examples such as recycling and original data from a study on drink‐spiking avoidance, the article sets out a new concept for discussing and understanding such risk‐related behavior: the ‘risk ritual’. We elaborate upon this concept in the article, identifying a number of tendencies in risk rituals and drawing upon anthropological and sociological work on the nature and uses of ritual. We compare the ‘risk ritual’ to religious and community rituals, exploring the connections between the former and the rain dance, religious ablutions, abstinence from eating meat on a Friday, and rite of passage ceremonies. Influenced by the cultural approach to risk, we argue that risk rituals, like rituals more generally, are shaped by social conditions, currents, and processes, such as the emphasis on personal responsibility for risk management and the desire to mark out the ‘sacred’ and the ‘profane’. The article concludes that ritualistic risk behavior is better viewed as functional rather than irrational.     

The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation

We use a time‐varying parameter/stochastic volatility VAR framework to assess how the passthrough of labor costs to price inflation has evolved over time in U.S. data. We find little evidence that independent movements in labor costs have had a material effect on price inflation in recent years, even for compensation measures where some degree of passthrough to prices still appears to be present. Our results cast doubt on explanations of recent inflation behavior that appeal to such mechanisms as downward nominal wage rigidity or a differential contribution of long‐term and short‐term unemployed workers to wage and price pressures.     

False advertising

There is widespread evidence that some firms use false advertising to overstate the value of their products. We consider a model in which a policy maker can punish such false claims. We characterize an equilibrium where false advertising actively influences rational buyers and analyze the effects of policy under different welfare objectives. We establish precise conditions where policy optimally permits a positive level of false advertising and show how these conditions vary intuitively with demand and market parameters. We also consider the implications for product investment and industry self‐regulation and connect our results to the literature on demand curvature.     

Household Optimism and Overborrowing

We use Finnish household‐level data from 1994 to 2013 to measure how often and what kind of forecast errors households make and how the errors are linked to the households' borrowing behavior and overindebtedness. We find that those households that make the largest optimistic forecast errors have greater debt‐to‐income ratios. They also are more likely to report that they suffer from excessive debt loads and have problems in coping with their bills. There are no such systematic effects for the households that make pessimistic forecast errors.     

Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study

This article presents a case study of a portfolio of individual long‐term insurance contracts sold by a Spanish mutual company. We describe the risk levels, the rating structure, and the implied cross‐subsidies on a portfolio of policies providing health, life, and long‐term care insurance. We show evidence of reclassification risk through the history of disability spells. We also analyze the lapse behavior and seek to provide a rationale for the portfolio’s dynamics. We discuss the lack of commitment from the policyholders (lapses) and from the mutual company (which took a run‐off decision). Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the design of such contracts.     

GMWB for life an analysis of lifelong withdrawal guarantees

In this paper, we analyze the latest guarantee feature in the variable annuities market: guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits for life (GMWB for life) which are also called guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefits (GLWB). This option gives the client the right to deduct a certain amount annually from the policy??s account value until death??even if a unit-linked account value drops to zero. We show how such products can be analyzed within a general framework presented in Bauer et al. (ASTIN Bull. 38(2):621?C651, 2008). We price the embedded guarantee for different product designs and parameters under both, deterministic and optimal client behavior.     

Investment, Uncertainty, and Liquidity

We analyze the dynamic investment decision of a firm subject to an endogenous financing constraint. The threat of future funding shortfalls lowers the value of the firm's timing options and encourages acceleration of investment beyond the first‐best optimal level. As well as highlighting another way by which capital market frictions can distort investment behavior, this result implies that (1) the sensitivity of investment to cash flow can be greatest for high‐liquidity firms and (2) greater uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on investment.     

Cream Skimming: Innovations in Insurance Risk Classification and Adverse Selection

We demonstrate how innovations in insurance risk classification can lead to adverse selection, or cream skimming, against insurers that are slow to adopt such pricing innovations. Using a model in which insurers with insufficient pricing data cannot differentiate between low‐ and high‐risk policyholders and therefore charge both the same premium, we show how innovative insurers develop new risk classification data to identify overcharged low‐risk policyholders and attract them from rival insurers with reduced prices. Less innovative insurers thus insure a growing percentage of high‐risk customers, resulting in adverse selection attributable to their informational disadvantage. Next, we examine two cases in which “Big Data” innovations in risk classification led to concerns about cream skimming among U.S. auto insurers. First, we track the rapid adoption of credit‐based insurance scores as pricing variables in personal auto insurance markets. Second, we examine the growing popularity of usage‐based insurance programs like telematics, plans in which insurers use data on policyholders’ actual driving behavior to set prices that attract low‐risk customers. Issues associated with the execution of such pricing strategies are discussed. In both cases, we document how rival insurers quickly adopt successful innovations to reduce their exposure to adverse selection.     

Managerial Incentives and Stock Price Manipulation

We present a rational expectations model of optimal executive compensation in a setting where managers are in a position to manipulate short‐term stock prices and the manipulation propensity is uncertain. We analyze the tradeoffs involved in conditioning pay on long‐ versus short‐term performance and show how manipulation, and investors' uncertainty about it, affects the equilibrium pay contract and the informativeness of prices. Firm and manager characteristics determine the optimal compensation scheme: the strength of incentives, the pay horizon, and the use of options. We consider how corporate governance and disclosure regulations can help create an environment that enables better contracting.     

Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk

The aim of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolio allocation. We derive analytical expressions for the first and second derivatives of the VaR, and explain how they can be used to simplify statistical inference and to perform a local analysis of the VaR. An empirical illustration of such an analysis is given for a portfolio of French stocks.     

Securities regulation and implicit penalties

The extant literature offers extensive support for the significant role played by institutions in financial markets, but implicit regulation and monitoring have yet to be examined. This study fills this void in the literature by employing unique Chinese datasets to explore the implicit regulation and penalties imposed by the Chinese government in regulating the initial public offering (IPO) market. Of particular interest are the economic consequences of underwriting IPO deals for client firms that violate regulatory rules in China’s capital market. We provide evidence to show that the associated underwriters’ reputations are impaired and their market share declines. We further explore whether such negative consequences result from a market disciplinary mechanism or a penalty imposed by the government. To analyze the possibility of a market disciplinary mechanism at work, we investigate (1) the market reaction to other client firms whose IPO deals were underwritten by underwriters associated with a violation at the time the violation was publicly disclosed and (2) the under-pricing of IPO deals undertaken by these underwriters after such disclosure. To analyze whether the government imposes an implicit penalty, we examine the application processing time for future IPO deals underwritten by the associated underwriters and find it to be significantly longer than for IPO deals underwritten by other underwriters. Overall, there is little evidence to suggest that the market penalizes underwriters for the rule-violating behavior of their client firms in China. Instead, the Chinese government implicitly penalizes them by imposing more stringent criteria on and lengthening the processing time of the IPO deals they subsequently underwrite.     

Self‐Insurance and Self‐Protection as Public Goods

Many public goods provide utility by insuring against hazardous events. Those public goods can have self‐insurance and self‐protection character. For both situations we analyze the efficient public provision level and the provision level resulting from Nash behavior in a private provision game. We consider the interaction of public goods as insurance devices with market insurance. The availability of market insurance reduces the provision level of the public good for both public and private provision, regardless of whether we consider self‐insurance or self‐protection. Moreover, we show that Nash behavior has always a larger impact than the availability of market insurance.     

Market Quote and Spread Component Cost Behavior Around Trading Halts for Stocks Interlisted on the Montreal and Toronto Stock Exchanges

We use intraday quotes and transactions on halted securities that interlisted on the Toronto Stock Exchange and Montreal Exchange to decompose the spreads and examine quote depths. Our results show that order‐processing costs differ for trading halts at the open compared to halts during the rest of the trading day. We find that the adverse‐selection cost component of the spread is higher around trading halts and highest at the trading halt. We also find that print‐media articles that appear within the four‐day window centered on the halt have no impact on the time‐series behavior of the spread cost.     

Proxy Advisory Firms: The Economics of Selling Information to Voters

We analyze how proxy advisors, which sell voting recommendations to shareholders, affect corporate decision‐making. If the quality of the advisor's information is low, there is overreliance on its recommendations and insufficient private information production. In contrast, if the advisor's information is precise, it may be underused because the advisor rations its recommendations to maximize profits. Overall, the advisor's presence leads to more informative voting only if its information is sufficiently precise. We evaluate several proposals on regulating proxy advisors and show that some suggested policies, such as reducing proxy advisors' market power or decreasing litigation pressure, can have negative effects.