Analysis of regional productivity with capital as a quasi-fixed factor

Most existing studies of regional productivity growth do not incorporate the effect of variations in capacity utilization on changes in output. By failing to do so, their factor productivity estimates are biased. To overcome this shortcoming, we adjust multifactor productivity growth measure for changes in capacity utilization. Our technique recognizes that capital is a quasi-fixed factor which implies that capital in the short run can be either under- or over-utilized by a firm. Our results from 1974 to 1978 show that capacity adjusted multifactor productivity growth measure exceeds capacity unadjusted multifactor productivity growth measure for the nine census divisions. The bias in the capacity unadjusted measure of multifactor productivity growth is approximately 8 percent in East North Central and over 33 percent in Mountain. We find that the aggregate factor productivity growth is slowest in the traditional manufacturing belt (Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions). The level of aggregate factor productivity in the manufacturing belt, however, is almost 33 percent higher than in regions in the south.     

Technology capital: the price of admission to the growth club

We assess long-run patterns of global agricultural productivity growth between 1970 and 2005 and examine the relationship between investments in technology capital and productivity. To measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) we employ a Solow-type growth accounting method to decompose output growth into input and TFP growth. For technology capital we construct two indexes reflecting national capacities in agricultural research and education-extension for 87 developing countries. We then correlate technology capital levels with long-term growth rates in agricultural TFP. Our findings show that global agricultural TFP growth as a whole accelerated since 1980, although performance was very uneven across developing countries. TFP growth rates were significantly influenced by technology capital. Marginal improvements to research capacity, given a minimal level of extension and schooling existed, were associated with faster TFP growth. However, marginal increases in extension-schooling without commensurate improvements in research capacity did not improve productivity performance.     

Capital use intensity and productivity biases

Measures of productivity growth are often pro-cyclical. This paper focuses on measurement errors in capital inputs, associated with unobserved variations in capital utilization rates, as an explanation for the existence of pro-cyclical patterns in measures of productivity. Recently constructed national and state-specific indexes of inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture for 1949–2002 are used to estimate production functions that include proxy variables for changes in the utilization of durable inputs. The proxy variables include an index of farmers’ terms of trade and an index of local seasonal growing conditions. We find that utilization responses by farmers are significant and bias measures of productivity growth in a pro-cyclical pattern. We quantify the bias, adjust the measures of productivity for the estimated utilization responses, and compare the adjusted and conventional measures.     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.     

江苏省工业企业社会劳动生产率增长效应分析

本文基于LMDI指数分解方法,建立社会劳动生产率增长效应分析模型,并以江苏省工业企业为例,实证分析社会劳动生产率增长效应。首先,分析生产要素流动对部门资本利用效率、部门资本深化以及部门劳动力转移的影响;其次,分析社会劳动生产率增长效应;最后分析各类型企业的资本利用效应、资本深化效应以及劳动力转移效应对社会劳动生产率增长的贡献。实证分析表明,加快生产要素转移,既有利于提高各类型企业的资本利用效应与资本深化效应,又有利于提高劳动力转移效应,从而有利于加快社会劳动生产率增长。     

时变弹性生产函数生产率分解公式及其政策含义

本文基于时变弹性生产函数,推导出经济增长来源于资本、劳动力、中性技术进步和偏向性技术进步贡献度之和;索洛余值在数值上等于中性技术进步贡献度与偏向性技术进步贡献度之和,也等于资本生产增长率与劳动生产增长率的加权和,其权数分别为资本和劳动时变产出弹性。研究认为,提高劳动收入份额,有利于促进经济向集约型发展方式转变。     

China's total factor productivity estimates by region, investment sources and ownership

This paper constructs China national and provincial physical capital and human capital for the period 1984–2006. The estimation of physical capital is extended to the use of sources of fund and ownership of fund. The growth accounting framework is used to calculate the output, input and total factor productivity growth rates. The relative variance method is used to compare the relative importance to output growth by input growth and productivity growth. The empirical findings show that although output growth in post-reform China has been contributed much by growth in total factor productivity, output volatility has relied more on input growth, and TFP growth has not been supported by complementary changes. There are regional differences when looking at the performance of individual growth rates.     

中国经济增长的动力转换与政策选择

研究目标：探究经济增长动因结构及转换趋势。研究方法：基于中国1980～2014年三次产业的时间序列数据,构造结构指数生产函数,采取指数分析与对数分析相结合的方法进行实证研究。研究发现：2008年以来全要素生产率贡献缩减是经济增长大幅减速的最主要因素;要素规模增长率下降与产出弹性缩减的双重挤压导致资本和劳动力规模贡献下滑;资本和劳动生产率增长双减速是造成全要素生产率大幅下降的主导因素;全要素生产率增长动力从以产业要素生产率的提升为主转向以产业之间要素配置结构的优化为主。研究创新：从三次产业的要素规模和效率进行考察,三个层次层层推进,为经济增长动力及其变迁轨迹分析创造更加广阔的拓展空间。研究价值：揭示了中国经济增长变迁的动因结构以及最新转换趋势,为旨在推动国民经济又快又好发展的政策设计提供了新的科学决策参考。     

Knowledge Spillovers,ICT and Productivity Growth

This paper looks at the channels through which intangible assets affect productivity growth. The econometric analysis exploits a new data set on intangible investment (INTAN‐Invest) in conjunction with EUKLEMS productivity estimates for 10 EU member states from 1998 to 2007. We find that (a) the output elasticity of intangible capital depends upon ICT intensity, consistent with complementarities between ICT and intangible capital; (b) non‐R&D intangible capital has a higher estimated output elasticity than its factor share, as does (c) an index of labour composition. The last two findings are consistent with growth spillovers from investments in knowledge‐based/intangible capital and skills.     

Temporary Equilibrium,Full Equilibrium,and Elasticity of Cost

The result by Morrison (1985) and Morrison and Schwarzt (1994) that there is an one-to-one relationship between the rate of economic capacity utilization and ratio of cost elasticities at the temporary and the full equilibrium has been instrumental in past studies on measuring economic capacity utilization and on adjusting indexes of productivity growth for temporary equilibrium. In this paper, dynamic duality and comparative dynamics are employed to assess the behavior of cost elasticity along an optimal path to the steady state. The analysis suggests that no a priori relationship exists between economic capacity utilization and elasticity of cost. The absence of an a priori relationship between these two economic variables implies that theoretical and empirical results based on past notions about the dynamic behavior of cost elasticity may have to be reconsidered.     

Factor Utilization and Adjusted Productivity Estimates for the UK*

This paper derives series for capital utilization, labour effort and total factor productivity (TFP) for the UK from a general equilibrium model with variable utilization and labour adjustment costs. Capital utilization tracks survey‐based measures closely, but persistent movements in total hours worked mean our labour effort series is not as highly correlated with its comparators. Our estimated TFP series is less cyclical than the traditional Solow residual, although a weighted average of capital utilization and labour effort – aggregate factor utilization – and the Solow residual are not closely related.     

Capital–labor substitution and equilibrium indeterminacy

This paper examines the quantitative relationship between the elasticity of capital–labor substitution in production and the conditions needed for equilibrium indeterminacy (and belief-driven fluctuations) in a one-sector growth model. With variable capital utilization, the substitution elasticity has little quantitative impact on the minimum degree of increasing returns needed for indeterminacy. However, when capital utilization is constant, a below-unity substitution elasticity sharply raises the minimum degree of increasing returns because it imposes a higher effective adjustment cost on labor hours. Overall, our results show that empirically-plausible departures from the Cobb–Douglas production specification can make indeterminacy more difficult to achieve.     

Productivity accounting for separable technologies

This paper develops a method for decomposing total factor productivity growth in separable production technologies and uses it to examine the role of pest-damage prevention on agricultural productivity. The rate of technical change is decomposed into output-enhancing and damage-preventing components. Growth accounting cannot provide separate estimates of these two components of technical change, and instead a parametric model is developed based on the dual cost function. The proposed model captures both components of technical change, properly accounts for environmental effects, and also accommodates the presence of capacity utilization and scale biases. The empirical application of the model is to a sample of Cretan olive-oil producers, and the results show that output-enhancing technical change is more important than damage-preventing technical change in explaining observed total factor productivity (TFP) changes. The second largest source of TFP growth is due to the scale effect.     

Volatility, growth, and welfare

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.     

技术效率、技术进步、要素积累与中国农业经济增长——基于SFA的经验分析

本文运用随机前沿方法,将1988～2009年中国省份的农业劳动生产率变化分解为农业技术效率变化、技术进步、物质性要素投入变化和人力资本积累四个来源,分析了它们对中国农业经济增长的影响。结果表明,自1988年以来,技术进步、物质性要素投入变化和人力资本积累在总体上都促进了中国省份农业劳动生产率的增长,而技术效率变化却阻碍了大部分省份的增长,但总的来说,技术进步和技术效率变化的共同作用对增长的贡献还是最大的。     

Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence

Optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one-sector models of economic growth. The relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state. Cross-country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates, even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions. Finally, by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization, standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady-state equilibrium.     

Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach*

This article calculates some facts for the ‘knowledge economy’. Using new data, first we document UK intangible investment and find that (i) this is greater than tangible investment by £37bn in 2008; (ii) R&D is 11% of total intangible investment, software 15%, and training and organizational capital 22% each; (iii) the most intangible‐intensive industries are manufacturing and financial services. Next, we measure the contribution of intangible capital to growth for 2000–08. We find that intangible capital accounts for 23% of labour productivity growth and treating intangibles as investment lowers total factor productivity growth in the 2000s by 24% (R&D lowers it by 3%).     

Public capital formation and productivity growth: Some international evidence

This paper examines the proposition that public capital spending fosters productivity growth in the private sector using a pooled sample of seven OECD countries over the 1963–1988 period. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between public capital formation and the growth rate of labor productivity. This result is not sensitive to whether there is constant returns to scale to some or all inputs, whether the stochastic formulation of the pooled model is a fixed- or a random-effect specification, whether the model includes an energy variable, or whether the data are expressed in the log-differenced or logarithmic form.     

全要素生产率与人力资本--基于中国经验数据的实证研究（1979-2010）

本文旨在运用中国数据（1979-2010）检验全要素生产率与人力资本之间存在的经验关系,其研究价值在于首次以较完整数据来总结两者30年来的互动发展。首先运用Malmquist指数法和Cobb-Douglas生产函数推导法估算出该期间中国全要素生产率的贡献率,然后以社会平均教育年限及公共教育经费占GDP比重作为人力资本代表指标,运用计量方法进行实验检验。结果发现,社会教育年限的提高有助于全要素生产率的增加,公共教育经费规模也是影响全要素生产率的重要因素。     

Growth and social capital: an evolutionary model

In this paper, we analyze the role of cooperation between firms through a model of growth and social capital. In a growth model à la Solow we incorporate the set of resources that a relational network has at its disposals, as a distinct production factor, and thus examine its dissemination through evolutionary type processes in firm interactions. Dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that cooperation is able to increase the productivity of factors, fostering a higher rate of growth in the long term. The most significant result is that scarcity of social capital can produce a general collapse of the economic system in areas in which long term growth is usually sustained by the learning by doing and spillover of knowledge phenomena. This conclusion leads to reconsider the role of local development economic policies that should concentrate on activities that promote repeated interaction between firms proven to be cooperative or that encourage the formation of technological consortia.