我国货币需求函数的经验分析

本文使用局部调整模型对我国货币需求函数进行了分析,提出在货币需求函数的分析中,应关注市场化利率,以便对持币成本做出合理的解释。     

基于权益久期的商业银行利率风险度量技术研究

在我国的利率市场化进程中,商业银行将面临巨大的利率风险,商业银行的利率风险管理势在必行。文章全面分析了利率风险的形成和对商业银行的影响,指出久期是利率风险度量方法的必然趋势,在此基础上,引入权益久期的概念,全面衡量商业银行面临的利率风险,并对权益久期的应用环境     

管理人员的综合测评方法研究

随着国债规模的扩大和国债政策市场化、长期化趋势的确立 ,优化国债融资成本的迫切性日益突出。针对我国国债市场的非市场化结构特征 ,我们提出以市场化为核心的优化国债市场结构和筹资成本的思路 ,并通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法探讨优化国债融资成本的较佳途径     

在我国利率市场化改革中金融约束思想的运用

利率市场化是指由资金市场的供求关系来决定利率水平，政府放弃对利率的直接行政干预，作为一项宏观金融制度的变迁，必然会引起社会经济结构的重新整合和不同利益集团的利益重构，在带来巨大收益的同时，也具有极大的社会成本。根据经济人假设，利率市场化能否进行，主要取决于现行利率体制与改革后市场化利率体制之间收益与成本的差额比较。假定R1、C1、R2、C2分别代表现行利率体制与改革后市场化利率体制的收益和成本，则利率市场化能否进行的必要条件是（R2—C2）—（R1—C1）〉0，即利率市场化后的纯收益优于非利率市场化的纯收益。     

国有股减持的困境与出路

随着战略管理的观念与技术在我国企业管理中的应用 ,战略成本管理在我国企业中的推行势在必行。企业在从传统成本管理向战略成本管理转变中 ,应特别注意树立正确的成本管理思想、拓展成本管理的范围以及改变现有的生产方式三方面问题。     

教育是现代经济结构体系中的一个非常重要的产业

本文阐述了我国企业目前普遍存在的成本居高不下、持续上升的情况,即成本刚性问题,从宏观和微观两个方面进行原因分析,并在此基础上提出弱化企业成本刚性对策。     

论资本成本的不同约束性对中外公司融资偏好的影响

鉴于我国公司的融资偏好与西方国家完全相反,黄少安、张岗在《中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析》一文中认为其直接动因在于股权融资的成本大大低于债务融资的成本,但同时在文中对资本成本与融资成本这两个不同的概念进行了混用,进而甚至可以推论出公司股权融资的资本成本小于债     

利率市场化的条件

在利率没有完全做到市场化时,将影响银行的金融创新。所以,完善市场经济、调整结构转变增长方式至关重要。说到利率市场化,实际上我国从上个世纪80年代后期就开始谈论利率市场化。这20多年来也有所进展,比如2012年我国允许商业银行下调贷款利率至基准利率的0.8倍,上浮存款利率至基准利率的1.1倍。如果我们把资金比作一种商品,那么有了利率市场化后,一个存款的客户,可以在各银行之间进行对比,     

关于企业成本刚性的分析与思考

实现以市场导向为主的利率决定体制 ,是包括中国在内的发展中国家金融体制改革的目标。而目前发展中国家金融制度的一个显著特点是国家过度干涉利率的决定 ,因此对政府在利率决定中的作用进行清晰的界定和建立合理的政府退出机制是发展中国家实现利率市场化的关键。本文准备从     

利率市场化对商业银行的影响

我国的"十二五"规划明确提出要稳步推进利率市场化改革,利率市场化是我国金融体制改革的必由之路。但是,我国在利率市场化过程中仍面对不少问题,而且利率市场化也会对我国商业银行的可持续发展产生深远影响。本文在梳理我国利率市场化改革发展历程的基础上,重点分析利率市场化对我国银行业带来的影响,最后针对我国商业银行应对利率市场化的可持续发展策略提出了建议。     

The linkage of interest rates within the EMS

The Linkage of Interest Rates within the EMS. — The paper explores the linkage between interest rates in Germany and the United States with those on other currencies within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System. Monthly data on money market interest rates and rolling window cointegration techniques are used. The principal findings are that during the early part of the sample period (1979–1995), there is widespread cointegration between both US and German interest rates and those on other currencies in the ERM; but during the later part of the sample, this “worldwide” linkage disintegrates, cointegration between German and other ERM interest rates strengthening whilst that with the US disappears.     

Demographics and interest rates in Asia

Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country's interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.     

Dual-track interest rates and capital misallocation

The control-track interest rate and the market-track interest rate constitute China's dual-track interest rates. A theoretical model of dual-track interest rates and financial frictions is studied. In the model, bank loans are provided to state-owned enterprises with the control-track interest rate, private enterprises resort to shadow banking with the market-track interest rate. The interest rate wedge between these two interest rates distorts capital allocation, even driving a sector out of production. Full interest rate liberalization which eliminates the interest rate wedge alleviates cross-sector capital misallocation. However, the net effect on aggregate TFP is ambiguous due to the within-sector effect. Under calibrated parameters, full interest rate liberalization improves aggregate TFP moderately, unless the financial reform aimed to have SOEs and POEs face the same degree of financial frictions is also implemented.     

Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates on base money—or equivalently ‘taxing money’—as a means for overcoming the zero bound on short-term nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates starting from the ‘taxing money’ proposal of Silvio Gesell up to current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. It is demonstrated that ‘taxing money’ proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step, the article points out that besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates.     

Real interest rates and macroeconomic activity

While standard discussions of the transmission mechanism ofmonetary policy tend to assume a strong and negative link betweenreal interest rates and real macroeconomic activity, and thisappears to some extent to be borne out by simulation of large-scalemacroeconometric models, the empirical evidence suggests thatthe link between real interest rates and macroeconomic aggregatessuch as consumption and investment is, in fact, somewhat tenuous.The weak link between interest rates and aggregate consumptionmay be explained at a theoretical level, while the apparentlyweak link between interest rates and investment is more puzzling,although it may be related to neglect of issues such as uncertaintyand the irreversibility of investment in empirical studies.Similarly, evidence on the link between real interest ratesand economic growth is mixed, and this may be related to non-linearitiesin the relationship. The survey highlights the need for furtherresearch in this area.     

World public debt and real interest rates

Real interest rates appear to have risen in virtually all industrializedcountries in the 1980s and 1990s relative to levels that prevailedin earlier decades. There is concern that this may reflect higherpublic debt, which is crowding out private-sector activity.There has also been increasing international capital marketintegration, implying that interest rates in any country maybe sensitive to global fiscal developments. This paper estimatesthe effects of such fiscal developments on real interest ratesin nine industrial countries. The results imply that the increasein OECD-wide government debt since the late 1970s was a majorfactor in the rise in real interest rates.     

Real interest rates and the cost of capital

The real interest rate and the equity risk premium are criticaleconomic parameters that influence a wide range of economicdecisions. This paper considers the problems involved in estimatingexpected real interest rates and the equity risk premium, andhence the overall cost of capital. Using UK data, it suggestsreasons why estimates based on historical returns may be misleading,and discusses alternative approaches to estimating the costof capital.     

The assessment: real interest rates

The assessment attempts to provide a broad explanation of thepost-war pattern of real interest rates, drawing on the theoreticaland empirical papers in this issue of the >Oxford Review. Itis argued that the concept of the 'neutral' rate of interest,at which the economy grows at its productive potential withoutchanges in the inflation rate, provides a helpful frameworkfor understanding these developments. The neutral rate providesa bridge between, on the one hand, the fundamental determinantsof real returns, as suggested by models of economic growth and,on the other hand, the functioning of asset markets and theoperating procedures of central banks. The change in policystance towards tighter money at the beginning of the 1980s isseen as having had long-lasting effects, especially when accountis taken of the fiscal stance.     

On the relationship between Dutch and German interest rates

Summary In this paper the relationship between Dutch and German short-term and long-term interest rates is examined. Using cointegration techniques, it is found that the covered interest parity hypothesis holds for short-term interest rates. This evidence supports the recent shift of emphasis of Dutch monetary policy. It appears that the uncovered short-term interest differential is stationary. The long-term interest differential is stationary with a shift in mean. This does not imply that the uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds. Using the indirect approach suggested by Fama (1984), we show that a risk premium exists and that, therefore, UIP does not hold.The authors would like to thank H. Garretsen, L.H. Hoogduin, J. Jacobs, C.A. de Kam and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on a previous version of this paper.Economic Bureau NMB-Postbank.     

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out implied interest rates from exchange rates. The analysis presented in this article is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c. 1383–1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non‐usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.