健康险需求对物价波动的非对称响应——基于中国2000-2010年季度数据的实证研究

基于中国健康险市场2000-2010年季度数据的实证分析表明,健康险需求增长率对于物价波动的反应是非对称的。首先与物价明显上涨的情况相比较,健康险需求对物价明显下跌的反应更加强烈。其次,适当提高名义利率的通货膨胀弹性将有助于健康险市场的快速发展。再次,目前温和的通货膨胀可以促进健康险需求的增长,健康险企业应该抓住扩大内需的有利时机。最后,由于市场需求模式在门限值附近出现较大改变而有可能冲击健康险行业,所以当通货膨胀率接近门限值时,健康险行业应该及时地调整营销策略。     

中国保险市场宏观需求对物价波动的非对称响应——基于2000—2010年季度数据的实证研究

基于中国保险市场2000—2010年季度数据的实证分析表明,保费收入增长率对于物价波动的反应是非对称的。首先与物价明显上涨的情况相比较．保险需求对物价明显下跌的反应更加强烈。其次．适当提高名义利率的通货膨胀弹性将有助于保险市场的快速发展。第三,目前温和的通货膨胀可以促进保费收入的增长．保险企业应该抓住扩大内需的有利时机。第四,由于市场需求模式在门限值附近出现较大改变而有可能冲击保险行业．所以当通货膨胀率接近门限值时．保险行业应该及时地调整营销策略。     

意外险的需求模式、感觉阈限与通货膨胀率——基于三区制门限回归模型的实证分析

基于中国意外险市场2000年~2010年季度数据的实证分析表明,通货膨胀率不仅能够明显地影响意外险需求,而且意外险保费收入增长率与通货膨胀率之间不是简单的线性负相关。意外险需求对通货膨胀率的敏感程度是"边际递减"的。与通货膨胀风险相比较,投保人更加厌恶通货紧缩风险。另外,由于需求模式在门限值附近出现较大改变而有可能冲击意外险市场,所以当通货膨胀率接近门限值时保险公司应该及时地调整营销策略。     

开放经济条件下货币需求的非对称特征

本文使用1994-2010年的非平稳季度数据,应用门限调整方法研究了开放经济条件下的货币需求,发现货币需求与收入、汇率、利率及通货膨胀之间存在协整关系,M1和M2短期需求函数存在门限调整。门限误差修正模型表明,M1、M2短期需求函数在长期均衡偏离低于门限值时能回复到长期均衡,在长期均衡偏离高于门限值时不稳定;收入、通货膨胀及汇率影响M1和M2的短期需求函数,但利率只影响M1的短期需求函数,不影响M2的短期需求函数。大多数时候货币需求能自我修正,但目前货币需求处于门限以上,限制了以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策调控效果。     

财险需求与物价波动间非线性关系的实证分析——基于三区制门限回归模型

本文基于中国财险市场2000-2010年季度数据,通过实证分析表明,通货膨胀率对财险保费收入增长率的影响存在着显著的非对称性.当通货膨胀率介于0.9％和2.7％之间时,投保人的反应最强烈,市场需求模式在门限值附近出现较大改变而有可能冲击财险行业.基于此,当通货膨胀率接近门限值时,建议财险业应及时地调整营销策略.     

通货膨胀影响因素分——析基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文通过VAR模型研究发现,我国通货膨胀受自身影响较大,具有明显惯性特征,货币供应量在短期内对物价无明显影响,在长期中却会对物价产生持续影响,上一期产出缺口、燃料原材料价格对通货膨胀影响明显．而热钱对通货膨胀的影响较弱,     

当前通货膨胀的特点、成因及对策

当前通货膨胀的特点、成因及对策尹世用，陈敏八十年代以来，通货膨胀一直不同程度地困扰着我国经济的稳定发展，继１９８８年发生接近２０％的通货膨胀后，１９９３年以来又出现了明显的通货膨胀。目前，面临的形势十分严峻，市场物价在１９９３年上涨了１３．４％的基础...     

通货膨胀率对保费收入的非对称影响——基于1982-2010年广西统计数据的实证

基于广西保险市场1982-2010年统计数据的实证分析表明,保费收入对于物价波动的反应是非对称的。温和的通货膨胀能够促进保险业务的发展,而奔腾的通货膨胀则起到阻碍的作用。而且与温和的通货膨胀相比较,市场需求对奔腾的通货膨胀的反应更加强烈。在目前温和的通货膨胀情况下,首先保险业需要抓住扩大内需的有利时机,积极创新通货膨胀指数化的保险产品;其次,政府要加强通货膨胀管理,防止奔腾的通货膨胀。     

中国历次通货膨胀及当前潜在通胀分析

改革开放以来我国经历了五次明显的通货膨胀,中央银行货币政策工具在抑制通货膨胀方面发挥了重要作用。为了摆脱金融危机冲击,发达国家采用量化宽松货币政策重建金融秩序、刺激经济增长．其货币贬值及市场流动挂过剩给我国物价带来输入性通货膨胀压力,建议从政策调控手段、大宗商品定价权、资本市场建设和经济增长方式等方面来稳定国内物价水平。     

我国人身险市场规模的实证分析

自1982年我国恢复人身险业务以来,其市场规模一直在高速增长,人身险市场也逐渐成为整个社会关注的焦点之一。本文将在经济分析的基础上构建我国人身险市场规模的计量经济模型,并以一定假设为基础对未来5年我国人身险市场的规模进行预测。     

有限理性的价格认识在保险消费中的作用

保险产品本身的特殊性和复杂性以及消费者自身的心理因素,使得消费者在保险价格认识中仅具有有限理性。有限理性的价格认识使消费者在保险消费决策中难以做出主动购买的决策,并容易盲目购买低价产品,使市场总保险需求的价格敏感度较低,并使价格在财产保险消费中的作用大于在人身保险中的作用。保险企业应该有针对性地采取价格策略和相应的营销支持,使消费者对价格的认识成为促进保险产品销售的手段而不是障碍。     

Regulator performance,regulatory environment and outcomes: An examination of insurance regulator career incentives on state insurance markets

In this paper we test whether the past or future labor market choices of insurance commissioners provide incentives for regulators in states with price regulation to either favor or oppose the industry by allowing prices that differ significantly from what would otherwise be the competitive market outcome. Using biographical data on insurance regulators, economic and state specific market structure and regulatory variables, and state premium and loss data on the personal automobile insurance market, we find no evidence consumers in prior approval states paid significantly different “unit prices” for insurance than consumers in states that allow competitive market forces to determine equilibrium prices during the time period 1985–2002. We do, however, find evidence regulators who obtained the position of insurance commissioner by popular election and those who seek higher elective office following their tenure as insurance commissioner allow higher overall “unit prices” relative to competitive market states. The “unit price” of insurance in regulated states is not statistically different from the competitive market outcome for regulators that make lateral moves back into state government and it is mildly higher for regulators who enter the insurance industry following their tenure. Finally, we find some evidence regulators who describe themselves as consumer advocates are successful reducing the price of insurance in favor of consumers in regulated markets. Overall the results are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information in the regulatory process that agents use to enhance their career aspirations.     

中国产险业价格竞争有效性的实证研究

中国产险市场的迅速发展,吸引了大量机构进入,同时也加剧了价格竞争。本文用赔付率作为保费价格的代理变量,采用横截面数据及最小二乘法分别对中美两国产险公司保费收入增长与保费价格、保险公司费用率之间的关系进行了研究。结果表明,在产险市场中,虽然价格竞争对增加保费收入有效,但其却极可能导致利润减少;而降低保险公司费用率可以同时增加保费收入和保险公司利润。以上结论对中国产险业尤其有效,最后本文建议中国产险业应以降低保险公司费用率作为首要选择;同时要限制价格过度竞争。     

费率市场化对车险市场影响的经济学模型分析

为了解决车险市场长期以来高回扣、高代理费的混乱局面,我国在2003年1月1日推行费率市场化,但随之而来的是,不仅各保险公司仍然采用高代理费争夺市场,而且还出现了过低费率的非理性定价以及费率的频繁调整。本文将以事实为基础,通过分析代理人的经营情况和保险公司保费收入最大化的行为模式,建立一个保险需求函数的模型,来解释费率改革如何影响车险市场,并提出了反思和建议。     

Price Regulation in Secondary Insurance Markets

Secondary life insurance markets are growing rapidly. From nearly no transactions in 1980, a wide variety of similar products in this market has developed, including viatical settlements, accelerated death benefits, and life settlements and as the population ages, these markets will become increasingly popular. Eight state governments, in a bid to guarantee sellers a “fair” price, have passed regulations setting a price floor on secondary life insurance market transactions, and more are considering doing the same. Using data from a unique random sample of HIV+ patients, we estimate welfare losses from transactions prevented by binding price floors in the viatical settlements market (an important segment of the secondary life insurance market). We find that price floors bind on HIV patients with greater than 4 years of life expectancy. Furthermore, HIV patients from states with price floors are significantly less likely to viaticate than similarly healthy HIV patients from other states. If price floors were adopted nationwide, they would rule out transactions worth $119 million per year. We find that the magnitude of welfare loss from these blocked transactions would be highest for consumers who are relatively poor, have weak bequest motives, and have a high rate of time preference.     

A general equilibrium model of portfolio insurance

This article examines the effects of portfolio insurance onmarket and asset price dynamics in a general equilibrium continuous-timemodel. Portfolio insurers are modeled as expected utility maximizingagents. Martingale methods are employed in solving the individualagents' dynamic consumption-portfolio problems. Comparisonsare made between the optimal consumption processes, optimallyinvested wealth and portfolio strategies of the portfolio insurersand 'normal agents'. At a general equilibrium level, comparisonsacross economies reveal that the market volatility and riskpremium are decreased, and the asset and market price levelsincreased, by the presence of portfolio insurance.     

The Cost of Pension Insurance

This article estimates the cost of the federal pension insurance program. Pension insurance claims have an important market‐risk component, which means that the cost of the exposure cannot be estimated by discounting future claims by the risk‐free rate. Moreover, owing to the complexity of the insurance contract, its price cannot be estimated with known options formulas without introducing an error of nonquantifiable magnitude. To circumvent these problems, we model the insurance program in its full complexity and use a Monte Carlo method. By hedging the exposure with a dynamic premium policy that offloads the market risk to the insureds, one can calculate the risk‐free, or actuarial, cost of that policy. One can also characterize the nature of the subsidy and its structure across insured plans. Finally, we provide an estimate of the implicit cost of the hedge function that taxpayers currently are providing for zero remuneration. The model shows that simple contingent claims models of pension insurance result in a price that is about triple the true market cost of the insurance, and that pension insurance models that ignore market risk understate the cost by half. The solution demonstrates the broad characteristics that might characterize a credible private‐sector version of pension insurance.     

International financial integration and national price levels: The role of the exchange rate regime

This paper proposes a new perspective on systematic deviations from purchasing power parity. Panel evidence for OECD countries shows that international financial integration increases the national price level under managed exchange rate regimes and lowers the price level under floating exchange rates. An open economy sticky-price model reproduces these findings by relating them to the possibility of insurance against consumption losses in internationally integrated financial markets. The utilization of insurance is reflected by relative price adjustments which manifest themselves in changes of the national price level. The direction of relative price adjustments, however, depends on the extent to which insurance is used under different exchange rate regimes: under a peg, financial integration raises the national price level; under a float, however, financial integration lowers the national price level.     

中国财产保险市场之竞争测度与结构分析

如果只从市场集中度判定市场竞争的程度,难以客观地反映出真实状况,本文使用Bresnahan与Lau提出的BL模型,利用非结构的方法使用更多信息分析我国财产保险市场。在财险公司追求利润最大化的假设下建立模型,采用2002年至2009年数据,对模型参数进行估计,从而分析我国财险市场竞争情况。研究发现,我国市场属于高度竞争的...