发达国家寿险次级市场的发展现状、比较及启示

寿险次级市场能够提高保险消费者的福利,促进整个保险业的发展。介绍发达国家寿险次级市场的发展概况,着重分析最早的寿险次级市场即英国市场、相对年轻的德国寿险次级市场以及规模最大的美国寿险次级市场,并对上述市场的目标保单、交易方式、监管规则、税收政策等进行比较和研究。在此基础上,明确提出中国应借鉴发达国家的经验,正确认识寿险次级市场的影响,从寿险初级市场规模、法律许可、中介机构、保险监管等方面为寿险次级市场的建立创造条件,并科学地进行寿险保单贴现交易的试点。     

我国老年人与重疾患者对保单贴现的需求分析

保单贴现的出现,可以有效解决被保险人的资金需求,为年老且无劳动收入的保单持有人提供养老金。2012年6月发布的《化解国家资产负债中长期风险》研究报告预测:到2013年,中国养老金的缺口将达18.3万亿元。社保负担沉重,难以持续是一个全球性问题,届时很难指望政府解决养老问题,指望家庭也不现实。但在我国寿险快速发展的当下,建立保单贴现市场将有助于缓解社会及家庭的养老压力。另外,保单贴现还可以解决重症患者因昂贵医疗费用而无法及时得到治疗的问题。本文通过对老年人口数及30种疾病平均住院医药费用与退保金额的回归分析,说明老年人及重疾患者对保单贴现的需求,得出保单贴现在我国具有较大的潜在市场。因此,我国应尽快引入保单贴现业务。     

Regulator performance,regulatory environment and outcomes: An examination of insurance regulator career incentives on state insurance markets

In this paper we test whether the past or future labor market choices of insurance commissioners provide incentives for regulators in states with price regulation to either favor or oppose the industry by allowing prices that differ significantly from what would otherwise be the competitive market outcome. Using biographical data on insurance regulators, economic and state specific market structure and regulatory variables, and state premium and loss data on the personal automobile insurance market, we find no evidence consumers in prior approval states paid significantly different “unit prices” for insurance than consumers in states that allow competitive market forces to determine equilibrium prices during the time period 1985–2002. We do, however, find evidence regulators who obtained the position of insurance commissioner by popular election and those who seek higher elective office following their tenure as insurance commissioner allow higher overall “unit prices” relative to competitive market states. The “unit price” of insurance in regulated states is not statistically different from the competitive market outcome for regulators that make lateral moves back into state government and it is mildly higher for regulators who enter the insurance industry following their tenure. Finally, we find some evidence regulators who describe themselves as consumer advocates are successful reducing the price of insurance in favor of consumers in regulated markets. Overall the results are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information in the regulatory process that agents use to enhance their career aspirations.     

寿险保单贴现业务的发展与思考

保单贴现是一种投资者以折扣价买进即将到期的人寿保单,到期获得保险公司给付的保险金,同时解决了绝症患者和老年病患高额医疗费的需要,以及老年人养老费用的需要,这是一种多赢的投资工具,在国外发达国家已经存在多年,并发展越来越快;随着我国金融市场的开放和人们保险意识的加强,发达国家保单贴现业务值得我国借鉴,尽快推出这一创新的保险业务,以满足部分保单持有人提前变现保单的需求。     

Mandatory Pensions and the Intensity of Adverse Selection in Life Insurance Markets

This article examines the impact of varying mandatory pensions on saving, life insurance, and annuity markets in an adverse selection economy. Under reasonable restrictions, we find unambiguous effects on market size, participation rates, and equilibrium prices. The degree of adverse selection, whether a market is active or inactive, and social welfare are analyzed.     

保单贴现业务中的洗钱风险及其防范

伴随全球经济一体化和金融创新的不断发展,保单贴现业务也将在国内迅速发展,但其中暗含的洗钱风险需要对其做前瞻性研究。主要分析保单贴现洗钱的具体方式、行为动机和主要特征,然后提出保单贴现洗钱风险防范的初步建议,包括优化反洗钱的宏观战略和采取针对性的反洗钱措施。其中,对实施"风险为本"的反洗钱策略、拓展对洗钱概念的法律定义、拟定保单贴现洗钱的可疑交易行为指南等举措作了较详细论证。     

Informed traders and their market preference: Empirical evidence from prices and volumes of options and stock

The causal structure of price and volume in options and stock markets is examined to investigate whether a preferred market for informed trading exists. The possible trade-off of leverage on one hand and liquidity and transactions costs on the other, and the effect of different market mechanisms, are discussed in this context.We test for cointegration and use the vector error correction (VEC) approach if we find it. Otherwise, causality tests are via the conventional vector autoregression (VAR). We find that volume leads price in both markets, but that option volume leads stock volume, and stock price leads option price. These results differ from previous studies. Potential explanations are discussed.     

Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions

This paper develops a utility indifference model for evaluating various prices associated with forward transactions in the housing market, based on the equivalent principle of expected wealth utility derived from the forward and spot real estate markets. Our model results show that forward transactions in the housing market are probably not due to house sellers?? and buyers?? heterogeneity, but to their demand for hedging against house price risk. When the imperfections of real estate markets and the risk preferences of market participants are taken into consideration, we are able to show that the idiosyncratic risk premium, which mainly depends on the participants?? risk preferences and the correlation between the traded asset and the real estate, is a remarkable determinant of house sellers?? and buyers?? forward reservation prices. In addition, we also find that the market clearing forward price usually will not converge toward the expected risk-neutral forward price. The sellers?? or buyers?? risk aversion degrees and market powers are also identified to play crucial roles in determining the clearing forward price.     

Guaranteed renewable life insurance under demand uncertainty

Guaranteed renewability (GR) is a prominent feature in many health and life insurance markets. We develop a model that includes unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over individuals' lifetimes. The presence of demand type heterogeneity leads to the possibility that optimal GR contracts may have a renewal price that is either above or below the actuarially fair price of the lowest risk type in the population. Individuals whose type turns out to be high risk but low demand renew more of their GR insurance than is efficient due to the attractive renewal price. This results in imperfect insurance against reclassification risk. Although a first‐best efficient contract is not possible in the presence of demand type heterogeneity, the presence of GR contracts nonetheless improves welfare relative to an environment with only spot markets.     

The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets

We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long‐Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substantial inefficiency.     

Anonymity,Stealth Trading,and the Information Content of Broker Identity

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange—where broker identity is transparent—we provide evidence that consecutive buyer‐/seller‐initiated transactions by the same broker have a relatively high permanent price impact. This implies that broker identity conveys information to market participants, and that markets in which broker identity is disclosed are likely to be more efficient. We also find that medium‐sized trades by the same broker convey greater information than large and small trades, which is consistent with stealth trading by informed investors.     

中国利率市场的价格发现——对国债现货、期货以及利率互换市场的研究

本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。     

Valuation of risky assets in arbitrage-free economies with transactions costs

This paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of risky assets in the case where transactions costs are present. The methodology involves applying ‘theorems of the alternative’ (Farkas' Lemma) as a consequence of arbitrage-free markets. Under relevant assumptions, it is found that the price of an asset having transactions costs is the corresponding price that would obtain in a perfect market, plus a ‘fudge factor’. This latter factor is provided explicit bounds.     

Price dispersion in OTC markets: A new measure of liquidity

In this paper, we model price dispersion effects in over-the-counter (OTC) markets to show that, in the presence of inventory risk for dealers and search costs for investors, traded prices may deviate from the expected market valuation of an asset. We interpret this deviation as a liquidity effect and develop a new liquidity measure quantifying the price dispersion in the context of the US corporate bond market. This market offers a unique opportunity to study liquidity effects since, from October 2004 onwards, all OTC transactions in this market have to be reported to a common database known as the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Furthermore, market-wide average price quotes are available from Markit Group Limited, a financial information provider. Thus, it is possible, for the first time, to directly observe deviations between transaction prices and the expected market valuation of securities. We quantify and analyze our new liquidity measure for this market and find significant price dispersion effects that cannot be simply captured by bid-ask spreads. We show that our new measure is indeed related to liquidity by regressing it on commonly-used liquidity proxies and find a strong relation between our proposed liquidity measure and bond characteristics, as well as trading activity variables. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of end-of-day marks that traders use to value their positions. Our evidence suggests that the price deviations from expected market valuations are significantly larger and more volatile than previously assumed. Overall, the results presented here improve our understanding of the drivers of liquidity and are important for many applications in OTC markets, in general.     

Transparency in the Mortgage Market

This paper studies the impact of transparency in the mortgage market on the underlying real estate market. We show that geographic transparency in the secondary mortgage market, which implies geographic risk based pricing in the primary market, can limit risk-sharing and make house prices more volatile. Ex ante, regions prefer opaque markets to enable insurance opportunities. We discuss the implications for risk based pricing and house price volatility more generally. In addition, we investigate the specific conditions under which competitive lenders would optimally choose to provide opaque lending, thus reducing volatility in the real estate market. We show that in general the opaque competitive equilibrium is not stable, and lenders have incentive to switch to transparent lending if one of the geographic regions has experienced a negative income shock. We propose market and regulatory mechanisms that make the opaque competitive equilibrium stable and insurance opportunities possible.     

Reinsurance for Natural and Man-Made Catastrophes in the United States: Current State of the Market and Regulatory Reforms

U.S. insurers are heavily dependent on global reinsurance markets to enable them to provide adequate primary market insurance coverage. This article reviews the response of the world's reinsurance industry to recent mega-catastrophes and provides recommendations for regulatory reforms that would improve the efficiency of reinsurance markets. The article also considers the supply of insurance and reinsurance for terrorism and makes recommendations for joint public–private responses to insuring terrorism losses. The analysis shows that reinsurance markets responded efficiently to recent catastrophe losses and that substantial amounts of new capital enter the reinsurance industry very quickly following major catastrophic events. Considerable progress has been made in improving risk and exposure management, capital allocation, and rate of return targeting. Insurance price regulation for catastrophe-prone lines of business is a major source of inefficiency in insurance and reinsurance markets. Deregulation of insurance prices would improve the efficiency of insurance markets, enabling markets to deal more effectively with mega-catastrophes. The current inadequacy of the private terrorism reinsurance market suggests that the federal government may need to remain involved in this market, at least for the next several years.     

Who influences the fundamental value of commodity futures in Japan?

We present evidence on the asymmetric information content of six investor groups' transactions in the gold, platinum, gasoline and rubber futures markets on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Microstructure theory suggests that traders with superior information regarding the efficient price should be more profitable in the long run. We find that foreign investors have the greatest influence over the efficient price in the gold market, domestic retail investors in the gasoline market and domestic investment funds in the platinum and rubber markets. Differences in the relative influence of investor groups over commodity futures are likely to reflect the degree of contract homogeneity and associated market liquidity. Foreign (domestic retail) investors have larger information shares for the homogeneous liquid (heterogeneous illiquid) contracts than for the heterogeneous illiquid (homogeneous liquid) contracts.     

Avoiding Taxes at Any Cost: The Economics of Tax-Deferred Real Estate Exchanges

This study examines the role tax-deferred exchanges play in the determination of reservation and transaction prices in U.S. commercial real estate markets. Taxpayers face significant time constraints when seeking to complete a delayed tax-deferred exchange. In a perfectly competitive market, a weakened bargaining position would not affect the transaction price. However, in illiquid, highly segmented commercial real estate markets, the exchanger may be required to pay a premium for the acquired property relative to its fair market value. Using a unique and rich dataset of commercial property transactions, we find that tax-motivated exchange buyers pay significantly more, on average, than non-exchange investors for their apartment and office properties, all else equal. Moreover, these average price premiums generally exceed the tax deferral benefits investors obtain by the use of a tax-deferred exchange. This result is robust to a number of alternative specifications. Thus, for many investors the pursuit of tax avoidance comes at a steep price.     

风险分类对保险市场效率的影响分析

本文将社会福利作为衡量保险市场效率的标准,分析保险人的风险分类行为是否有助于信息不对称保险市场效率的提高.本文首先证明了信息不对称保险市场存在市场失灵,然后比较了实施风险分类前后社会福利的差异.结论表明:当保险市场处于R-S均衡时,准确性较高的分类能使社会福利得到改进,准确性不高的分类不能使社会福利得到改进;当保险市场...     

The Capital Structure of Firms Subject to Price Regulation: Evidence from the Insurance Industry

Automobile and workers' compensation insurance are relatively homogeneous products sold under varying regulatory systems among the states. This paper investigates how price regulation affects the capital structure decisions of profit-maximizing insurers who sell insurance in both competitive and/or regulated markets. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that insurers subject to price regulation will choose to hold less capital. In addition, we hypothesize insurers subject to more stringent regulatory pricing constraints will choose even higher degrees of leverage because the benefits of holding additional amounts of capital are suppressed. We conduct empirical tests using cross-sectional data on insurers and find evidence consistent with both hypotheses. These findings have important implications for insurance price and solvency regulation. Stricter price regulation increases the default risk (i.e., reduces the financial quality) of insurance contracts purchased by individuals and firms.