A simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage

A debate has been raging for centuries regarding the effects of interannual storage on commodity prices. Most analysts consider storage to function as a price stabilizer, while others place it at the core of an explanation of intriguing features of commodity price series, such as skewed distributions. Most studies have been developed in the context of the theory of competitive storage where random shocks affect supply or demand. Recently, the endogenous chaotic behavior of markets has become another possible hypothesis regarding the origin of commodity price fluctuations. We develop a nonlinear cobweb model with intra‐ and interannual storage, risk averse agents, and adaptive expectations. Like the theory of competitive storage, this nonlinear cobweb model with storage can reproduce some of the stylized facts of agricultural commodity prices (autocorrelation of first rank, low kurtosis, and skewness). In addition, the effects of storage on price variation are mixed. In the presence of interannual storage, chaotic price series show less variation compared to a situation without interannual storage but we find that storage contributes to the endogenous volatility of prices by making chaotic dynamics more likely.     

The Local Impacts of Agricultural Subsidies: Evidence from the Canadian Prairies

We estimate the impact of removing an export subsidy on the local economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, exploiting the large regional variation of a 1995 reform. We find that the loss of the subsidy resulted in significantly lower farm value‐added, farm asset values and local non‐farm employment. The results suggest that the subsidy removal had detrimental spillover effects on the local non‐agricultural economy that varied spatially across the Prairies. The point estimates suggest that the marginal effect of the subsidy loss on non‐agricultural employment was five times as large as those obtained from traditional estimates of the multiplier effect.     

全产业链视角下农业绿色生态补贴环节与策略

[目的]2016年中央深改组提出《建立以绿色生态为导向的农业补贴制度改革方案》，由此如何建立绿色生态导向的农业补贴成为学界热议焦点，本文试图从农业全产业链视角建立精准的农业绿色生态补贴策略。[方法]以农业全产业链为视角，从农业生产环节、加工环节、流通环节和品牌建设环节入手，讨论农业绿色生态补贴环节与推进策略。[结果]研究发现，农业绿色生态补贴需以资源环境可持续利用为结果导向，以绿色高质量产品为目标导向，将补贴方式与金额与农业产业绿色化“挂钩”，明确补贴关键环节与责任主体，采取以奖代补、多元参与等方式，形成激励与管控相结合的补贴机制，提升补贴的精准性和指向性。[结论]基于以上思路，不同环节绿色生态补贴策略为：（1）生产环节补贴以化学投入品减量、农业废弃物资源化利用和绿色技术采纳生产者为主，根据绿色生产评估结果获得相应补贴；（2）加工环节补贴按照加工产品等级补贴、对废弃物资源化利用进行补贴等方面入手，提高加工环节绿色生态农业补贴的精准性和科学性；（3）流通环节对农产品流通存储基础设施建设等进行补贴；（4）品牌建设环节通过政府和市场两方面，利用补贴政策促进优质优价市场形成，实现农产品高质量发...     

Input subsidies and crop diversity on family farms in Burkina Faso

Since their independence, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have used input subsidies to increase agricultural productivity and improve food security. We analyse the effects of both a fertiliser and a seed subsidy on farming households' land allocation among crops and crop diversity in Burkina Faso. Although previous studies investigated either the impact of a fertiliser or a seed subsidy on targeted crops, few examined the effects of both subsidies combined. Applying a correlated random-effects model with a control function approach to nationally representative, 2-year panel data collected from farming households, we find that those with access to the fertiliser subsidy allocate more land to the crops it targets (rice, maize and cotton) than non-targeted crops. Focusing on a minor crop with key agronomic and nutritional attributes, we conclude that land allocation to cowpea as the primary crop and intercrop declined with the fertiliser subsidy. The fertiliser subsidy also negatively affects crop diversity. However, we find that the cowpea seed subsidy offsets the bias of fertiliser subsidy toward fertiliser-targeted crops and enhances diversity.     

Fertilizer subsidies and food self‐sufficiency in Indonesia

Indonesia is a net importer of almost all of its staple foods. National self‐sufficiency in food, especially the main staple, rice, is a core objective of economic policy. Poverty reduction is also a core policy objective. Since the 1970s, Indonesia has used agricultural input subsidies, especially on fertilizer, to stimulate agricultural production, largely in pursuit of the goal of rice self‐sufficiency. More recently, it has also used output protection, especially in rice, for the same purpose. This article utilizes a multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to study the trade‐offs between the goals of self‐sufficiency and poverty reduction when two alternative means are used to achieve them: a fertilizer subsidy, on the one hand, and output protection, on the other. It does this by analyzing the aggregate and distributional effects of these two sets of policies and by comparing their effects with nonintervention. The analysis shows that, in terms of its effects on poverty, a fertilizer subsidy can be a more effective instrument for achieving the goal of rice self‐sufficiency than final product import restrictions.     

新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序及影响因素分析——以河南省为例

目的 探索新型农业经营主体对各类财政政策需求顺序及影响因素,为优化新型农业经营主体发展和农业适度规模经营财政政策提供依据。方法 文章基于河南省延津等5县调查问卷,运用加权统计频数累计求和和聚类分析确定新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序,运用二元Logistic选择模型分析政策影响因素。结果 （1）河南省新型农业经营主体财政政策需求依次是：农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等。（2）达到5%显著水平的变量有,农业信贷担保政策需求分析中的程序是否方便变量,财政专项资金政策需求分析中生产经营规模、是否主要从事加工或者收储业、近3年来是否享受过该项政策、对该项政策的满意程度4个变量,农业生产保险政策需求分析中是否主要从事畜牧业、是否主要从事加工或者收储业（负向影响）2个变量,农机购置补贴政策需求分析中是否主要从事粮食种植业、政策知晓程度、对该项政策的满意程度3个变量。结论 完善农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业政策性生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等政策设计,因地因业因人制宜打好政策组合拳,提升财政资金整体政策效应。     

Area Yield Index Insurance or Farm Yield Crop Insurance? Chinese Perspectives on Farmers' Welfare and Government Subsidy Effectiveness

We evaluate the performance of area yield crop insurance (AYCI) and farm yield crop insurance (FYCI) using farm-level yield data from China, focusing on their effects on farmers' welfare, and their cost-effectiveness in terms of government subsidy. Given a subsidy rate sufficient to generate a politically acceptable participation level, the price advantage of AYCI may no longer offset its higher basis risk, and consequently FYCI may be preferred by farmers. From the government's perspective, AYCI is the cheapest option to maintain reasonable farmer participation in insurance, but is not necessarily the most cost-effective choice. Our findings suggest that, contrary to an assumption that informs many developing country agricultural insurance programmes, AYCI schemes are not necessarily preferred to FYCI. Decisions on the structure of a national agricultural insurance programme should be based on careful consideration of local conditions.     

Why does on-farm storage fail to mitigate price volatility?

We analyze the role of farm stock management on price volatility under liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. In commodity markets, speculative behaviors by stockholders tend to reduce price volatility, but this is not the case in certain agricultural markets, where speculation by farmers regarding decisions to sell or store grain is subject to liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. Like stockholders, most farmers sell grain if they expect a price drop in the near future, but unlike stockholders, they are not necessarily able to purchase grain if they expect a price increase in the next period. Heterogeneous price expectations can also lead to suboptimal storage decisions, further increasing price volatility. For these reasons, the storage management behavior of farmers often fails to mitigate price drops in the way that speculation by stockholders does. We merge historical data on maize prices and household storage collected in Burkina Faso in order to build a dynamic panel over the 2005–2012 period. We show that carryover from one season to the next is associated with unexpected price drops during the preceding lean season and that carryover is associated with more frequent unexpected price drops following the subsequent post‐harvest season.     

Subsidies and agricultural productivity in the EU

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and agricultural labor productivity growth by estimating a conditional convergence growth model. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 213 EU regions over the period 2004–2014) than have been used before. We find that, on average, EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies increase agricultural labor productivity growth, but this aggregate effect hides important heterogeneity of effects of different types of subsidies. The positive effect on productivity comes from decoupled subsidies, that is, Pillar I decoupled payments and some Pillar II payments. Coupled Pillar I subsidies have the opposite effect: they slow down productivity growth.     

新时期中国粮食补贴政策的战略协同与差异设计

本研究在梳理新时期中国粮食补贴政策体系的基础上,分析政策体系存在的政策主体多元且程序繁琐、补贴标准偏低且范围偏窄以及补贴依据不合理且对象错位等问题。针对新形势,本文提出了粮食补贴政策与乡村振兴、粮食安全、农业市场化、农业规模化、农业现代化、农业信息化、开放型农业等战略的协同布局;并且,本文提出了新时期粮食补贴政策的差异设计方案,包括试行粮食金融化分层补贴、构建粮食加工分类补贴、推行粮食主产区和主销区补贴政策的差异设计。     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.     

关于实施土地流转补贴政策的研究

研究目的:通过实施土地流转补贴政策,扩大农户经营规模,保证农户增收。研究方法:规范分析法。研究结果:土地流转补贴政策的内容包含政策的指导思想、目标、原则、范围、对象、规模、标准、申报审核、资金发放、监管等10个方面。研究结论:中国现行各项农业直接补贴政策在保障国家粮食安全方面效果较为明显,在增加农民收入方面效果不大。实施土地流转补贴政策,促进农户增产增收,利于改进农业生产方式,利于解决农业劳动力老龄化问题,促进劳动力转移。实施土地流转补贴政策必须克服过度扩大经营规模和引入非农经营主体的错误倾向,由国家进行规范,并通过农村社会保障制度的建设来推动。     

中国农林生物质发电产业现行电价补贴效果研究

从生物质能源电价补贴政策视角出发,构建了政府、企业、中间人和农户为一体的农林生物质发电产业系统动力学模型,通过模拟、对比不同补贴政策组合下的实施效果,对现行补贴政策进行量化评价。结果表明:现行补贴额度无法扭转发电企业亏损状态,且现行的直接退出机制将导致企业出现更为严重的亏损,而适当调整补贴额度并实行逐减退出方式可提高各主体及产业整体利润。因此,为了促进中国农林生物质发电产业的快速发展,就要保障生物质补贴资金优先及时发放,同时推进可再生能源配额制度和绿证交易制度建设,以促进产业快速良序发展,实现生物质资源充分利用。     

目标价格补贴政策对棉花生产的影响分析基于PSM-DID的实证研究

目的 目标价格补贴政策是改革农产品价格形成机制的重要举措,对于优化我国农业供给结构具有重要的意义。方法 为了评估临时收储制改为目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花生产的影响,文章基于2011—2018年新疆和其他棉花主产区县级棉花生产相关数据,运用双重差分倾向得分法（PSM-DID）分析了目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花的种植面积和产量的总体影响、动态效应和区域效应。结果 目标价格补贴政策对调控国内棉花供给起着重要作用;该政策总体上促进了新疆棉花产业发展,棉花面积和产量显著提高;从政策的动态效应来看,目标价格政策调整为三年一定的方案对棉花生产的促进作用显著大于试点期一年一定的效应;此外,目标价格补贴政策对南疆和北疆的影响效应存在差异,对南疆棉花生产的促进效果更显著。结论 在此基础上,结合我国缺乏棉花定价权,目标价格补贴政策可能导致国家财政负担过重,且容易触及WTO黄箱补贴的限制等问题,该文提出了进一步完善目标价格补贴政策,逐步向脱钩的补贴方式过渡,并积极探索财政补贴与市场补偿相结合的补贴机制等相关建议。     

定额补贴模式能够促进农机装备制造企业创新吗——以拖拉机制造行业为例

农机购置补贴政策已深刻影响中国农机行业发展,本文以拖拉机制造行业为例,探讨政策的定额补贴模式对农机企业创新的影响.研究表明,定额补贴模式下的农机购置补贴对企业创新产生了两种效应.一是偏离效应,表现为补贴政策既难以降低企业创新成本,也难以带动高质量产品销售,对农机企业的创新激励不足,导致政策设计与政策目标实现的需要相偏离...     

Gender and agricultural productivity: implications of the Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi

Alleviating gender differences in agricultural productivity is vital for poverty reduction. While numerous studies suggest that gender differences in agricultural productivity are a result of female farmers having limited access to resources, few studies investigate the role of agricultural interventions in alleviating the constraints to input use and subsequently the gender gap in productivity. This study investigates whether there are gendered gains in agricultural productivity from participating in an input subsidy program and if these gains help reduce the gender gap. Using nationally representative data that is disaggregated at the plot level, this study analyzes the large‐scale voucher‐based Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi. Focusing on the total value of output per hectare, relationships are identified using weighted estimators, where the weights are constructed from propensity scores, and spatial fixed effects, to address the unobservable factors that may confound the relationship between program participation and productivity. The findings suggest that participation in the program improves agricultural productivity for both male and female farmers but it does not provide disproportionate help to female famers to overcome gender disparities in agricultural productivity. This suggests that female farmers face additional constraints to productivity apart from nonlabor input use.     

农业灌溉水费“暗补”改为“明补”的必要性与可行性

通过梳理国内外水价政策,得到以下启示：对农业灌溉水费实行单纯的＂暗补＂是低效的,与我国的水资源形势不相适应;对农业灌溉用水实行＂明补＂是改变农业用水低效的最有效方式,应改变我国农业灌溉不收水费的＂暗补＂方式,实施水费征收与补贴并举。分析了农业灌溉水费＂暗补＂改为＂明补＂的必要性和可行性,并以河北省衡水市桃城区实施＂提补水价＂节水激励机制、节水效果明显为例,说明农民易于接受水费征收与补贴并举的方式。     

When Do Export Subsidies Have a Redistributional Role?

If an export subsidy is efficient, that is, has a surplus-transfer role, then there exists an implicit function relating the optimal level of the subsidy to the income target in the agricultural sector. If an export subsidy is inefficient no such function exists. We show that dependence exists in large-export equilibrium, not in small-export equilibrium and show that these results remain robust to concerns about domestic tax distortions. The failure of previous work to produce this result stems from its neglect of the income constraint on producer surplus in the programming problem transferring surplus from consumers and taxpayers to farmers.     

Setting Climate Action as the Priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: A Simulation Experiment

We quantitatively assess the impacts of re-allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive-based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology-adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG-reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget-neutral re-allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non-CO₂ emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual baseline. Two-thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission-saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget-neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.     

对公共财政惠农惠林政策的调查与思考

在湖南调研发现,林区、山区农民和粮食主产区农民享受的公共财政补贴存在较大差距。粮食直补等多项国家惠农政策给粮食主产区的农民带来了实实在在的利益。由于受耕地面积少、农业经营项目单一等因素的制约,林农所获得的惠农补贴不多。当前公共财政惠林政策与林区、山区实际存在较大差距,林区基础设施建设投入严重不足、林农税费负担较重等现象还比较普遍。针对这些问题,应调整完善公共财政惠林政策体系,尽早出台营造林补助政策,建立政策性森林保险制度,提高森林生态效益补偿标准,加大林区基础设施建设投入力度,以缩小林农与粮食主产区农民享受公共财政补贴上的差距。