进口制成品在中国市场上的比较优势及其变迁:2000年～2011年

笔者对2000年～2011年期间中国不同类型进口商品的比较优势变化及现状进行了分析,并分析了14个进口国家和地区在中国市场上不同类型商品的比较优势变化.结果表明:进口制成品在中国市场上具有比较优势的产品种类下降了,这种变化是结构性的变化,低技术、中等技术工业制成品的比较优势水平下降速度十分的迅猛,初级制成品、资源型制成品在中国市场上的比较优势整体提升;中国从发达国家主要进口的是技术性商品,从发展中大国进口的主要是资源、能源类商品,从周边国家进口各类产品,中国进口增加带动了很多国家和地区的不同类型商品的对外贸易出口.针对具有比较优势、具有垄断地位的进口产品,中国要发挥巨大的国内市场规模的吸引力和影响力,促进进口来源地多元化,规范进口秩序,提高议价能力,增强进口的主动权.     

我国进口机械设备的技术结构及其资本体现式技术溢出效应

文章利用1985-2007年世界107个国家SITC三位码分类下60多类机械设备进口数据,以出口品生产世界份额的相对权重,测度我国进口机械设备的技术含量和技术结构,并从产品层面构建进口机械设备技术水平与全要素生产率关系模型,检验进口机械设备的资本体现式技术溢出效应。结果显示:(1)我国进口机械设备的技术结构不断升级,中高技术含量和中等技术含量的机械设备进口比重逐年提高,低技术含量机械设备进口比重持续下降。(2)发达国家源于资金和人力资本优势主要引进高技术含量的机械设备,而包括我国在内的发展中国家受资金、技术水平和人力资源的约束,则以进口中等技术含量的机械设备为主。(3)我国进口机械设备的资本体现式技术溢出效应显著,但主要作用于非中性技术进步。     

经济增长与高技术产业出口技术含量关系的实证研究

本文对1993—2009年46个国家和地区高技术产业出口技术含量测度结果发现,发达国家的高技术产业出口技术含量高于发展中国家,发展中国家高技术产业出口技术含量明显超出其收入水平,印度已成为领先国家之一,而中国高技术出口技术含量相对较低。进一步的实证检验表明,经济增长对高技术出口技术含量提升具有长期协整关系,高技术产业出口技术含量的自我提升过程具有显著的收敛性,发展中国家自我提升力表现出明显的追赶效应。     

中国制造业的出口竞争力及其国际比较

中国出口贸易在世界贸易中的地位和竞争力如何?本文通过对中国制造业出口竞争力的分析发现,一是中国制造业的出口竞争力来源于两个极端,即低技术制造业和高技术制造业,中国这两类行业的出口占世界的份额都已经超过了其他任何国家和地区;二是中国低技术制造业的贸易竞争力主要来源于纺织、皮革和鞋类等劳动密集型产业,中国该产业出口占世界的份额接近三分之一;三是中国高技术制造业的贸易竞争力主要来源于信息和通讯技术等技术密集型产业,中国该产业出口占世界的份额达到20%左右;四是中国中高技术制造业和中低技术制造业占世界市场的份额较低,这与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家显著不同。由于中技术制成品通常是资本密集型产品,中国中技术制造业在世界贸易中较低的竞争力,反映了中国资本稀缺的事实。     

中国制造业的出口竞争力及其国际比较北大核心CSSCISSCI

中国出口贸易在世界贸易中的地位和竞争力如何?本文通过对中国制造业出口竞争力的分析发现,一是中国制造业的出口竞争力来源于两个极端,即低技术制造业和高技术制造业,中国这两类行业的出口占世界的份额都已经超过了其他任何国家和地区;二是中国低技术制造业的贸易竞争力主要来源于纺织、皮革和鞋类等劳动密集型产业,中国该产业出口占世界的份额接近三分之一;三是中国高技术制造业的贸易竞争力主要来源于信息和通讯技术等技术密集型产业,中国该产业出口占世界的份额达到20%左右;四是中国中高技术制造业和中低技术制造业占世界市场的份额较低,这与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家显著不同。由于中技术制成品通常是资本密集型产品,中国中技术制造业在世界贸易中较低的竞争力,反映了中国资本稀缺的事实。     

汇率变动对中国制成品出口的影响

本文运用显示性比较优势指数,研究汇率变动下,中国制成品各类别产品出口比较优势的具体变动情况,从而分析工业制成品各类产品对汇率变化的敏感程度,并据此提出我国政府应高度重视高技术含量制成品和低技术含量制成品在汇率变动下的发展和出口。     

汇率变动对中国制成品出口的影响

本文运用显示性比较优势指数,研究汇率变动下,中国制成品各类别产品出口比较优势的具体变动情况,从而分析工业制成品各类产品对汇率变化的敏感程度,并据此提出我国政府应高度重视高技术含量制成品和低技术含量制成品在汇率变动下的发展和出口     

中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构研究

本文在144种制成品按技术含量分类的基础上,对1999—2009年期间我国制成品的出口比较优势及其稳定性、出口贸易结构及其变动程度进行了研究。研究结果表明:(1)我国出口产品在美国市场上的整体比较优势小于在世界市场上的比较优势;(2)无论是在世界市场还是在美国市场上,我国出口中具有比较优势的产品种类越来越多,出口比较优势变得更加稳定成熟,但是,这些产品主要是低技术含量制成品;(3)原本在我国制成品出口中占绝对优势地位的低科技含量制成品逐渐被高科技含量制成品所取代,目前高技术含量制成品已经成为我国第一大类出口产品。     

基于技术创新的出口贸易发展——以技术含量视角分析

在分析技术创新对出口贸易作用路径的基础上,从创新投入与产出两个方面建立多元回归模型,探讨技术创新对不同技术含量制成品出口贸易的影响,最终得出技术创新对高低技术制成品出口具有促进作用,而对中技术制成品出口的影响不显著;目前我国高技术制成品出口是由技术创新要素驱动,而中低技术制成品出口仍由劳动力要素驱动的结论.     

山东省工业制成品出口竞争力实证分析

山东省通过产业结构调整,工业制成品的出口规模不断扩大,出口竞争力和国际市场占有率均有所提高.本文以实证的方法分析了山东省出口商品呈现出逐渐向中等和高技术含量制成品转化的趋势,并就以后提高工业制成品的出口竞争力给出了建议.     

Measuring the Technological Structure of Chinese Imports

This paper uses the optimal partitioning method of clustering analysis using orderly samples to classify trade goods and analyzes the technological structure of Chinese imports. The results indicate that since 2000, medium–high technology products have made up the majority of China's imported goods, while the shares of medium or higher technology products have decreased and the share of medium–low technology products has increased sharply. The number of imported goods with a comparative advantage in the Chinese market decreased, while the overall comparative advantage of imported goods also declined. China imports different types of products from different countries and regions around the world. The findings suggest that China should increase the import scale of high technology products.     

生产分工视角的中国对美国货物出口竞争力验证

考虑生产分工对中美间经贸联系程度、贸易规模和结构的影响,基于生产分工下价值链视角,构建出口竞争力测度指标体系,验证中国对美国货物出口竞争力。结果显示:2016年及之前,中国仅在杂项制品大类上,对美国显示出较强出口竞争力,机械和运输设备、动物和植物油、油脂和蜡我国具有比较优势,化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品双方竞争性较强,其余大类上,中国对美国出口竞争力不具优势。引入其他国家作对比的分析结果表明:中国对对比国家均无显著出口竞争力,而且对美国出口具有单价优势的资本技术密集型产品,对这些国家出口多缺乏单价优势,而2017年以来对美国和对比国家的贸易变化,进一步勾画出中国对美国货物出口竞争力不足。在生产分工主导全球产业发展背景下,提升我国在全球生产分工中的参与地位,宜强化自主技术研发、提升外资质量和技术外溢、加快"走出去"学习先进技术。     

我国产业国际竞争力的现状与评价

本文基于我国产业国际竞争力发展的现状,对产业国际竞争力的评价方法、评价指标进行了系统分析,选择显示性优势指数、贸易竞争力指数、国际市场占有率这3个指标,利用出口数据评价方法,对我国整体产业国际竞争力进行分析,对我国整体产业及主要出口产品的国际竞争力进行了计算。计算结果显示:我国农业原材料出口产品的比较优势较弱,而出口制成品的比较优势很强;但从整体上看,我国产业国际竞争力还较低。     

Intrafirm trade and the developing countries: an assessment of the data

The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.     

我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶态势研究:国际贸易视角

从国际贸易的视角来探讨我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶态势。研究发现:我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶绩效明显,就产品和工艺都复杂的产品而言,我国出口额占全世界出口额的比例从2000年的2.41%快速上升到2008年的10.96%,产品和工艺都复杂的产品的出口额占我国出口总额的比例从2000年的46.43%上升到2008年的72.35%;从中、美、德、日、韩五国的比较结果来看,在产品和工艺都复杂的产品的出口总额中,2000—2008年间美国和日本所占份额都在下降,德国和韩国缓慢增长,我国快速增长,从第5位上升到第2位;从国际贸易平衡来看,在产品和工艺都复杂的产品领域,2000—2008年间我国成功地从净进口国转变为净出口国,但同期日本和德国在此类产品上一直保持较高的贸易顺差,我国和日本、德国在复杂技术产业领域的贸易顺差还有较大差距。     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

HOW THE GLOBALIZATION OF R&D COMPETITION AFFECTS TRADE AND GROWTH

The implications of international R&D competition on trade and growth are investigated. The model is one in which a separate R&D sector competes with the manufacturing sector to secure human capital, and technology is licensed to manufacturers by the winner of a pre-emptive R&D competition. The results show that globalization of R&D competition leads to trade between countries (even identical countries), because the result of competition leads to a reallocation of human capital between sectors. The winning country exports technology and traditional goods, while the loser exports manufactured goods. Globalization with indiscriminate technology licensing increases the world's economic growth rate.     

Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?

This study empirically investigates the presence of “crowding out” effects emerging from intra-developing country competition in export markets for manufactured goods. Export equations are estimated for a panel consisting of 22 major developing country exporters of manufactures, after constructing trade-weighted price and quantity indices based on their exports to 13 major high-income countries. The results, which are robust to various price and expenditure measures, suggest the presence of significant demand-side constraints on export growth, and that rapid Chinese export growth has had a noticeable impact in this regard. The estimated effects vary across time periods, SITC categories, and export destinations.     

Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam

This paper empirically examines the US–China trade war that began in mid-2018, focusing on the impact on a third country, Vietnam. Using regression analysis, we found that while the trade war had a negative impact on US imports from China for all targeted products, there was a partial offset from increased imports from other countries. Notably, US imports from Vietnam experienced a sharp increase, particularly after the third round of US import tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, our research reveals that the four rounds of tariff escalation affected US imports from China differently depending on their end-use and technology intensity.     

Export Product Diversification and Public Revenue’s Dependence on Resource Revenue

ABSTRACT

This article tries to reconcile two major priorities for countries, notably resource-rich countries on the international development agenda: export product diversification with a view to helping them better integrate into the multilateral trading system and tax reforms with a view to reducing the dependence of total public revenue on resource revenue, and therefore developing a more sustainable stream of public revenue. The analysis therefore involves examining empirically the impact of export product diversification on countries’ overall public revenue dependence on resource revenue, this dependence being measured by the share of resource revenue in total public revenue. The empirical analysis shows that export product diversification exerts a negative and significant impact on resource revenue share of total public revenue, and therefore could help facilitate tax reforms towards lower resource revenue dependence. Hence, while tax policy is the main policy tool to conduct tax reforms, export product diversification would likely contribute to facilitating the implementation of these reforms.