AIDS is your business

If your company operates in a developing country, AIDS is your business. While Africa has received the most attention, AIDS is also spreading swiftly in other parts of the world. Russia and Ukraine had the fastest-growing epidemics last year, and many experts believe China and India will suffer the next tidal wave of infection. Why should executives be concerned about AIDS? Because it is destroying the twin rationales of globalization strategy-cheap labor and fast-growing markets--in countries where people are heavily affected by the epidemic. Fortunately, investments in programs that prevent infection and provide treatment for employees who have HIV/AIDS are profitable for many businesses--that is, they lead to savings that outweigh the programs' costs. Due to the long latency period between HIV infection and the onset of AIDS symptoms, a company is not likely to see any of the costs of HIV/AIDS until five to ten years after an employee is infected. But executives can calculate the present value of epidemic-related costs by using the discount rate to weigh each cost according to its expected timing. That allows companies to think about expenses on HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programs as investments rather than merely as costs. The authors found that the annual cost of AIDS to six corporations in South Africa and Botswana ranged from 0.4% to 5.9% of the wage bill. All six companies would have earned positive returns on their investments if they had provided employees with free treatment for HIV/AIDS in the form of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), according to the mathematical model the authors used. The annual reduction in the AIDS "tax" would have been as much as 40.4%. The authors' conclusion? Fighting AIDS not only helps those infected; it also makes good business sense.     

Recent value changes in Western Europe

This article analyses value changes in Western Europe in relation to changes in social institutions. Important institutional changes have been that families have become have become smaller and more fragile and the labour market has become larger and more heterogeneous, especially because of the increase in the number of married women having paid jobs. Finally, globalization has resulted in a double trend of heterogenization and localism. These changes have influenced the values of the population in Western Europe. The overall change is an increase in individualization and a more fragmented value system which means, eg, that there are no clear political cleavages. The value changes can be summarized in three processes: from industrial to green values; from authoritarian values to libertarian values; and from church-oriented to personal religious values. These trends suggest that we are approaching a society with a diversity of lifestyles where many value structures are competing.     

The Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDS: A Model with an Application to South Africa

Primarily a disease of young adults, AIDS imposes economic coststhat could be devastatingly high in the long run by underminingthe transmission of human capital—the main driver of long-runeconomic growth—across generations. AIDS makes it harderfor victims’ children to obtain an education and deprivesthem of the love, nurturing, and life skills that parents provide.These children will in turn find it difficult to educate theirchildren, and so on. An overlapping generations model is usedto show that an otherwise growing economy could decline to alow-level subsistence equilibrium if hit with an AIDS-type increasein premature adult mortality. Calibrating the model for SouthAfrica, where the HIV prevalence rate is over 20 percent, simulationsreveal that the economy could shrink to half its current sizein about four generations in the absence of intervention. Programsto combat the disease and to support needy families could avertsuch a collapse, but they imply a fiscal burden of about 4 percentof GDP.     

AIDS and African Development

Because AIDS affects primarily the most productive age groupand is fatal and widespread, it will have a larger impact onAfrican development than other more common diseases. Infectionrates are higher in urban than in rural areas, and studies suggestthat they are highest among urban high-income, skilled men andtheir partners. Macroeconomic models show that the greater theinfection rate among educated workers and the greater the propensityto finance medical care out of savings, the more detrimentalis the impact of AIDS on the growth of per capita income. Regardlessof the macroeconomic effect, most households and businessesdirectly affected by AIDS will be economically worse off, atleast in the short run. It is not clear, however, what effectAIDS will have on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa or on incomeinequality. Governments need to assess the potential economicimpact of AIDS, implement cost-effective programs to mitigatethe impact, and target prevention programs to the economic sectorsmost sensitive to HIV infection.      

Futures and government: Combating the new philistinism

The downgrading of long-term forecasting and planning in the governments of a number of Western countries is traced to the rise of ‘the new philistinism’—blunt myopia and political opportunism—typified by the stance of the Thatcher and Reagan administrations. After a review of the fate of the proposals for an independent European futures unit deriving from the Europe Plus Thirty project, this article calls for another attempt to set up effective Western futures institutions. Not to forecast and not to plan is a use—or rather, a misuse—of government power.     

Trajectories of Reform: Public Management Change in Four Countries

It is fashionable to think there is a tide, or sequence, of basically similar public management changes sweeping through Western Europe, North America and Australasia, and British ministers have proclaimed that the UK is an admired and copied leader in public sector reforms. This article argues that a uniform 'one-track' picture is not at all accurate. Looking at 15 years of change in Finland, New Zealand, Sweden and the UK, the authors argue there are not only significant differences between each of the countries, but a more general and persistent distinction between the two Nordic countries and the UK and New Zealand. In the 'Westminster system' countries, the aim appears to have been to minimize the extent and distinctiveness of the state sector, whereas in the Nordic countries much greater emphasis has been placed on modernizing the state apparatus so that it can deal better with a changing environment.     

Public economics gone wild: Lessons from venture capital

A recent article in the Journal of Public Economics has asserted, among other things, that government venture capital funds in Europe have crowded out private venture capital. I explain that the findings in that paper are based on empirical measures that are completely flawed. Moreover, I show with data spanning 13 countries and the years 1989–2011 that government venture capital funds in Europe have not crowded out private venture capital investment. Finally, I draw implications for studying venture capital and public policy for other countries such as India and China.     

It's time to retire. Retirement

Companies have been so focused on down-sizing to contain costs that they've largely neglected a looming threat to their competitiveness: a severe shortage of talented workers. The general population is aging and with it, the labor pool. People are living longer, healthier lives, and the birthrate is at a historical low. During the next 15 years, 80% of the native-born workforce growth in North America--and even more in much of Western Europe--is going to be in the over-50 age cohort. When these mature workers begin to retire, there won't be nearly enough young people entering the workforce to compensate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a shortfall of 10 million workers in the United States in 2010, and in countries where the birthrate is well below the population replacement level (particularly in Western Europe), the shortage will hit sooner, be more severe, and remain chronic. The problem won't just be a lack of bodies. Skills, knowledge, experience, and relationships walk out the door every time somebody retires--and they take time and money to replace. And while the brain drain is beginning now, the problem is going to become much more acute in the next decade or so, when baby boomers--more than one-quarter of all Americans, amounting to 76 million people--start hitting their mid sixties. Based on the results of their yearlong research project, the authors of this article offer recommendations for gaining the loyalty of older workers and creating a more flexible approach to retirement that allows people to continue contributing well into their sixties and seventies. Companies can no longer afford to think of retirement as a onetime event, permanently dividing work life from leisure.     

Handling the realities of business: A perspective of the European societal strategy project

In 1982 a Report was published by the European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management and the European Foundation for Management Development entitled “Facing Realities”. This was the output of a two-year dialogue between industrialists and academics from nine countries in Western Europe about the emerging social and political challenges to the role of the business firm in modern society. Two UK academics associated with the Societal Strategy Project, as it was called, now stand back and appraise the methodology and significance of the work.     

Sovereign risk spillovers: A network approach

Understanding the global financial network for sovereign debt, particularly with a focus on interaction and spillover effects of sovereign risk, has become important for policy makers as they look to protect the stability of their economies. Using high dimensional Vector Autoregression techniques and network simulation on Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS)’ data of 57 countries, we identify that the global sovereign CDS network is fully integrated as there is virtually no country without any connection to at least one specific node in the system. However, each country has a unique attribute in the network, as a risk exporter or importer and/or risk transmitter. Among developed countries, the US (unsurprisingly) holds the dominant position as a risk exporter while Germany is identified as a connecting country that transmits shocks. The most connected countries in the sovereign CDS network belong to the new European Union members. We examine possible drivers of the network relationships observed, in order to better understand the risk transmission process, and find that connections in the sovereign risk network are stronger within regional groups and countries with the same level of economic development. Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East and Africa have more interactive networks than Northern Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We also identify that financial volatility and economic policy uncertainty increase the interactions in market-based default risk assessment.     

Two scenarios for Europe: “Europe confronted with high energy prices” or “Europe after oil peaking”

A significant change in trends regarding energy prices (in particular oil) has taken place in 2003 at the beginning of the Iraq War. It has revealed a very strong tension between oil prices on the one hand and the relationship between global oil supply and demand on the other. The strong growth rates of emerging economies up to 2008 have generated a very sharp increase in oil prices. The temporary economic recession of 2008-2009 has resulted in turn into a significant decrease of oil prices, down to a level which remained, however, twice as high as that of early 2003. With the economy recovering from the recession, it is highly probable that energy prices will continue to increase and that Europe will be confronted with high energy prices in the coming decades. Against this general background, two scenarios have been elaborated which differ mainly by the time of occurrence of oil peaking.¹ The differences between the scenario hypotheses are therefore differences of context in relation to exogenous factors. Policies are also considered in the scenarios, but they are not at the forefront and their impact is considered as limited in relation to that of exogenous factors.The first scenario “Europe in a context of high energy price” assumes that the process of oil peaking will not take place before 2030, but that oil price increase will nevertheless be sustained and substantial until then. Numerous adjustments will have to be made in the economy and their territorial impacts will be significant (less polycentricity, more compact cities, decline of the importance of road and air transport). The second scenario “Europe after oil production peaking” assumes that oil production will peak around the mid-2010s (followed by gas production peaking around 2025), despite significant investments to increase production. In a context of steadily growing oil and gas demand, Europe will be confronted with serious economic difficulties. The territorial impacts will be different from those suggested by the first scenario, with stronger pressure put on rural areas and a loss of attractiveness of large cities related to increasing unemployment and social tensions. In both scenarios, the countries of central and eastern Europe will be more severely hit by the new energy context.The scenarios were elaborated in 2005 and slightly reviewed in 2009 in order to take account of the impacts of the economic recession in Europe and of the growing concerns about climate change.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

Accountability and the debt crisis

The international debt crisis is viewed here as only a symptom—its underlying causes have resulted from a crisis in management among the major actors in the development process, namely commercial banks, recipient countries and development assistance agencies. The cumulative effect has been a lack of accountability that puts the development objectives themselves into jeopardy. This article proposes that all actors should write off their debt for failed projects, that the development assistance system be redesigned, and that a strategy be developed to help countries design and manage development programmes appropriate to their unique circumstances.     

IAS/IFRS and financial reporting quality: Lessons from the European experience

This paper discusses the effects of the adoption of IAS/IFRS in Europe on the quality of financial reporting. In doing so, it adopts the perspective of stock market investors and focuses on value-relevance research. The adoption of IAS/IFRS in Europe is an example of accounting standardization among countries with different institutional frameworks and enforcement rules. This allows investigating whether, and to what extent, accounting regulation per se can affect the quality of financial reporting and leads to convergence in financial reporting. This is a key issue for standard setting purposes as IAS/IFRS have been adopted in very diverse countries all over the world, and many others are likely to adopt them in the near future.     

德国经济概况(英文)

欧洲经济正在陷入困境:爱尔兰,西班牙,葡萄牙,希腊都在请求欧盟其它国家的帮助来度过经济危机,但是德国经济却在近几年接接攀升。是什么策略让德国在困境中受益?德国在中欧扮演什么角色?     

Price Regulation in Secondary Insurance Markets

Secondary life insurance markets are growing rapidly. From nearly no transactions in 1980, a wide variety of similar products in this market has developed, including viatical settlements, accelerated death benefits, and life settlements and as the population ages, these markets will become increasingly popular. Eight state governments, in a bid to guarantee sellers a “fair” price, have passed regulations setting a price floor on secondary life insurance market transactions, and more are considering doing the same. Using data from a unique random sample of HIV+ patients, we estimate welfare losses from transactions prevented by binding price floors in the viatical settlements market (an important segment of the secondary life insurance market). We find that price floors bind on HIV patients with greater than 4 years of life expectancy. Furthermore, HIV patients from states with price floors are significantly less likely to viaticate than similarly healthy HIV patients from other states. If price floors were adopted nationwide, they would rule out transactions worth $119 million per year. We find that the magnitude of welfare loss from these blocked transactions would be highest for consumers who are relatively poor, have weak bequest motives, and have a high rate of time preference.     

TOWARD A GLOBAL MODEL OF VENTURE CAPITAL?

While the U.S. still accounts for about two‐thirds of the world's total private equity fund‐raising and investment, other countries have been adopting American practices and are experiencing significant growth in their private equity markets. In fact, a case can be made that a global market for venture capital and private equity is emerging, at least in Western Europe and North America, where venture markets are seeing significant convergence in funding levels, investment patterns, and realized returns. To date, however, the European Union has had little success in establishing community‐wide commercial laws, taxation regimes, or corporate governance policies, so each country's private equity funds are organized in segmented national markets, and investment also tends to be largely localized. The Asian markets are even more fragmented: venture capital shows no sign of taking root in Japan, and China lacks the basic legal infrastructure needed to support a vibrant venture capital market. Venture capitalists create value through their role as active investors, and government and business leaders around the world have come to realize that venture capital and private equity investing can be a significant force in promoting economic development and technological progress. In general, countries with English common law codes offer greater protection to inves‐tors; the ratio of venture capital spending to GDP for common law countries is nearly double that in civil law countries. Government efforts to promote venture capital would probably be better focused on eliminating regulatory road‐blocks, lowering taxes, and provid‐ing a favorable investor climate. In the meantime, it appears that pri‐vate equity fund‐raising and invest‐ment have hit their cyclical lows and are poised to surpass $250 billion globally within three or four years and to reach one‐half trillion dollars by the end of the decade. The author also predicts that India, whose history as a former British colony has given it a common law framework as well as system of elite universities and technical institutes known for the quality of its gradu‐ates, should become one of the five leading venture capital markets by the end of this decade.     

Rentenversicherung zwischen Nachhaltigkeit und Gerechtigkeit

Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has taken considerable steps to improve the sustainability of financing its public pension system. However, more recently we have observed attempts to revoke some of the enacted reforms before their implementation. If the positive correlation between income and life expectancy is taken into account, one can indeed diagnose a discrimination against low-income earners in the present retirement benefit schedule, and this very group will suffer disproportionately from the increase in legal retirement age enacted in 2007. Therefore, to protect the sustainability of the pension system in the political sphere, it may be necessary to modify the schedule in favor of this group. In other words, sustainability and equity of the pension system must go hand in hand.     

The evolution of death rates and life expectancy in Denmark

From 1835 to date Denmark has experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth of about 40 years for both sexes. Over the course of the last 170 years, life expectancy at birth has increased from 40 to 80 years for women and from 36 to 76 years for men, and it continues to rise. Using a new methodology, we show that about half of the total historic increase can be attributed to the sharp decline in infant and young age death rates up to 1950. However, life expectancy gains from 1950 to date can be primarily attributed to improvements in the age-specific death rates for the age group from 50 to 80, although there is also a noticeable contribution from the further decline in infant mortality over this period. With age-specific death rates up to age 60 now at a very low absolute level, substantial future life expectancy improvements must necessarily arise from improvements in age-specific death rates for ages 60 and above. Using the developed methodology, we quantify the impact of further reductions in age-specific mortality. Despite being one of countries with the highest life expectancy at the beginning of the 20th century, and despite the spectacular historic increase in life expectancy since then, Denmark is, in fact, lagging behind compared to many other countries, notably the other Nordic countries. The main reason is an alarming excess mortality for cause-specific death rates related to ischaemic heart diseases and, in particular, a number of cancer diseases. Age-specific death rates continue to improve in most countries, and a likely scenario is that in the future Denmark will experience improvement rates at the international level or perhaps even higher as a result of a catch-up effect.     

Leveraged Buyouts in the U.K. and Continental Europe: Retrospect and Prospect

The markets for management buyouts in the U.K. and continental Europe have experienced dramatic growth in the past ten years. In the U.K., buyouts accounted for half of the total M&A activity (measured by value) in 2005. And as in the U.S. during the‘80s, the greatest number of U.K. buyouts in recent years have been management‐ and investor‐led acquisitions of divisions of large corporations. In continental Europe, by contrast, the largest fraction of deals has involved the purchase of family‐owned private businesses. But in recent years, increased pressure for shareholder value in countries like France, Netherlands, and even Germany has led to a growing number of buyouts of divisions of listed companies. Like the U.K., continental Europe has also seen a small but growing number of purchases of entire public companies (known as private‐to‐public transactions, or PTPs), including the largest ever buyout in Europe, the €13 billion purchase this year of the Danish corporation TDC. In view of the record levels of capital raised by European private equity funds in recent years‐which, until 2005, exceeded the amounts invested in any given year‐we can expect more growth in private equity investment in the near future. In continental Europe, the prospects for buyouts remain especially strong, given both the pressure from investors to restructure larger corporations and the possibilities for adding value in family‐owned firms. But, as the authors note, today's private equity firms face a number of challenges in earning adequate returns for their investors. One is increased competition. In addition to the increased activity of U.S. private equity firms, local private equity investors are also facing competition from hedge funds and new entrants such as government‐sponsored operators, family offices, and wealthy entrepreneurs. Another major challenge is finding value‐preserving exit vehicles. Although an IPO is an option for the largest buyouts with growth prospects, most buyout investments are harvested either through sales to other companies or, increasingly, other private equity firms. The latter transactions, known as “secondary” buyouts, now account for a significant share of new funds invested by private equity firms across Europe.