Poverty Dynamics,Violent Conflict,and Convergence in Rwanda

This paper analyzes the poverty impact of the violent events that affected Rwanda in the 1990s. The main objective of the paper is to identify systematically potential mechanisms linking violent conflict with changes in poverty across provinces and households in Rwanda before and after a decade of violence. In accordance with emerging literature on the long‐term economic effects of violent conflict, we find empirical evidence for economic convergence between richer and poorer Rwandan provinces and households following the conflict shocks. Using a small but unique panel of households surveyed before and after the conflict period, we find that households whose house was destroyed or who lost land ran a higher risk of falling into poverty. We do not find much evidence for an economic effect of violent deaths at the household level due to substitution effects of labor within the household. Non‐violent deaths however seem to increase income per adult equivalent for the survivors. Results are shown to be robust to sample selection and IV models.     

Can Labor Emigration Affect the Education of Girls? Evidence from Tajikistan

This study examines how large-scale, predominantly male emigration affects the education of girls staying in Tajikistan, the poorest post-Soviet state and one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. Using data from a three-wave household panel survey conducted in 2007, 2009, and 2011, this study finds that the net effect of migration on girls’ schooling turns from positive to negative with girls’ age. These results lend support to various conceptual channels through which the emigration of household members may affect girls’ education, including the relaxation of budget constraints, a change of the household head, and an increase in household work. At the practical level, the results imply that migration can be detrimental to women’s empowerment and cast doubt on whether emigration is an appropriate long-term development strategy for Tajikistan.     

Wars and Child Health: Evidence from the Eritrean-Ethiopian Conflict

Conflict between and within countries can have lasting health and economic consequences, but identifying such effects can be empirically challenging. This paper uses household survey data from Eritrea to estimate the effect of exposure to the 1998-2000 Eritrea-Ethiopia war on children's health. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in the conflict's geographic extent and timing and the exposure of different birth cohorts to the fighting. The unique survey data include details on each household's migration history, which allows us to measure a child's geographic location during the war and without which war exposure would be incorrectly classified. War-exposed children have lower height-for-age Z-scores, with similar effects for children born before or during the war. Both boys and girls who are born during the war experience negative impacts due to conflict. Effects are robust to including region-specific time trends, alternative conflict exposure measures, and mother fixed effects.     

The long-term effects of civil conflicts on education,earnings, and fertility: Evidence from Cambodia

This paper examines the long-term effects of exposure to civil war and genocide on the educational attainment, earnings, and fertility of individuals in Cambodia. Given the well-documented causal links between schooling and labor productivity, it is surprising that past studies show that civil conflicts reduce educational attainment, but generally not earnings of individuals. Using variation in the degree of Cambodians’ exposure to civil conflicts during primary school age, we find that disruption to primary education during civil conflicts decreases educational attainment and earnings, increases fertility, and has negligible effects on health of individuals several decades later. Our findings suggest that the effect of conflict on schooling disruption has adverse consequences on long-term labor productivity and economic development.     

The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala

We combine data from the 2002 National Population Census and the distribution of the number of human rights violations and victims across 22 departments to examine how Guatemala's 36-year-long civil war affected human capital accumulation. The year of birth and the department of birth jointly determine an individual's exposure during school age to three different periods of the civil war, namely the initial period (1960-1978), the worst period (1979-1984), and the final period (1985-1996). We find a strong negative impact of the civil war on the education of the two most disadvantaged groups, namely rural Mayan males and females. Among rural Mayan males, those who were school age during the three periods of the civil war in departments where more human rights violations were committed completed 0.27, 0.71, and 1.09 years less of schooling respectively whereas rural Mayan females exposed to the three periods of the war completed 0.12, 0.47, and 1.17 years less of schooling respectively. Given an average of 4.66 and 3.83 years of schooling for males and females, these represent declines of 6, 15, and 23% for males and 3, 12, and 30% for females. Our results are robust to the inclusion of indicators for department of residence, year of birth, and controls for different trends in education and human development in war-affected and peaceful departments of Guatemala and suggest that the country's civil war may have deepened gender, regional, sectoral, and ethnic disparities in schooling.     

Children's schooling in Nicaragua: What is the link between educational achievement,borrowing, and gender?

The impact of credit has been widely studied, and yet little is known about the effect of formal versus informal loans. In this paper, we contrast the two and their impact on children's schooling using longitudinal data from Nicaragua. To address endogeneity, we utilize both household fixed effects and locality–year fixed effects. Our results indicate that, on average, children from borrowing households fare worse than children from nonborrowing households, with male borrowers having a disproportionately negative effect on boys, and vice versa for girls and female borrowers. Informal credit is found to have a protective effect on school attendance, but the effects of formal and informal credit on cumulative schooling are found to be statistically equivalent. However, this appears to mask considerable heterogeneity within informal borrowing.     

The effects of external migration on enrolments,accumulated schooling and dropouts in Punjab

External migration in developing countries can relax household income constraints because of external remittances. This paper looks at whether the external migration of individuals in a household has a positive effect on schooling outcomes of children as measured by school enrolments, accumulated level of schooling, number of days spent in school and dropouts in Punjab. Historic migration rates were used to instrument for migration in an analysis of school outcomes for children of different ages to see which group has been most affected by external migration. The results show a significantly positive impact of external migration on the enrolments of younger children, whereas, the accumulated level of schooling for older children increases significantly if there is an external migrant in the household.     

Effects of Economic Shocks on Children's Employment and Schooling in Brazil

This paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan Brazil. The paper uses data on over 100,000 children ages 10-16 from Brazil's Monthly Employment Survey (PME) from 1982 to 1999. Taking advantage of the rotating panels in the PME, we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four-month period with households in which the head is continuously employed. Probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force, drops out of school, and fails to advance in school. The effects can be large, implying increases of as much as 50% in the probability of entering employment for 16-year-old girls. In contrast, shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects, suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks. The results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short-run economic shocks, with negative consequences for children.     

Social constraints and women's education: Evidence from Afghanistan under radical religious rule

We analyze how growing up under Taliban rule affects Afghan women's educational attainments and subsequent labor market and fertility outcomes. While in power from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban ruled a large portion of the Afghan territory and introduced a ban on girls’ education. Using data from the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey, we rely on the fact that, depending on their year of birth and province of residence, individuals differed in the number of years they were exposed to the Taliban government while of school age. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that an additional year of exposure to the Taliban occupation while of school age reduces a woman's probability of completing basic education by about two percentage points. The effects on educational outcomes are larger in Pashtun districts and rural areas. These findings are not due to the 1992 introduction of the provisional Islamist government that preceded the Taliban, cultural differences related to ethnicity, or varying emigration rates across provinces. The estimates are robust to differences across provinces in the number of violent events before, during, and after the Taliban occupation. Women exposed to the Taliban’s radical religious rule while they were of school age are also less likely to be employed outside of the household and more likely to have an agricultural job within the household. For fertility choices, exposure to the Taliban occupation increases total number of children and lowers age at first marriage. We discuss our empirical findings against theoretical economic literature on radical religious groups (e.g., Iannaccone, 1992; Berman, 2000).     

How Much of the Gender Difference in Child School Enrolment Can Be Explained? Evidence from Rural India

There are significant gender differences in child schooling in the Indian states though very few studies explain this gender difference. Unlike most existing studies we take account of the implicit and explicit opportunity costs of schooling and use a bivariate probit model to jointly determine a child's participation in school and market jobs. Results obtained from the World Institute of Development Economics Research (WIDER) villages in West Bengal suggest that indicators of household resources, parental preferences, returns to and opportunity costs of domestic work significantly affect child school enrolment. While household resources have similar effects on enrolment of boys and girls, other arguments tend to explain a part of the observed gender difference. Even after taking account of all possible arguments, there remains a large variation in gender differences in child schooling that cannot be explained by differences in male and female characteristics in our sample.     

Schooling and household welfare: The case of Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006

This paper looks at the effect schooling has had on household welfare in Sri Lanka during the 1990–2006 period, on average and across the welfare distribution. We account for the endogeneity of schooling using quantile instrumental variable estimation as developed in Chernozhukov, Fernández‐Val, and Kowalski ( 2015 ). We use pooled data from four cross‐sectional Household Income Expenditure Surveys. The results show that an extra year of schooling on the part of the most educated adult member in the household can increase welfare (proxied by real per capita consumption expenditure) by 3.8 percent on average. However, the effect varies considerably across the welfare distribution: At the lower end, around the 20th and 25th quantiles, an extra year of education increases welfare by 6 and 5 percent, respectively, while at the median it is around 3.5 percent. At the higher, 90th quantile it is much less, at 1 percent. Thus the marginal effect of schooling on welfare is significant and positive at all levels of the welfare distribution, but highest at the lower and middle quartiles. This result is different from findings in the literature that tend to show larger effects at higher quantiles, when endogeneity is uncorrected.     

Social learning,neighborhood effects,and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India

This paper empirically identifies social learning and neighborhood effects in schooling investments in a new technology regime. Social learning implies that learning is most efficient when observed heterogeneity in schooling is greatest. The estimates of learning-investment rule, from farm household panel data at the onset of the Green Revolution in India, show that (i) agents learn about schooling returns from income realizations of their neighbors, and (ii) the speed of learning is high when the variation of schooling is large. Thus, schooling distribution of the parents' generation in a community has externalities to schooling investments in children. Simulations show that the variations in schooling within and across communities generate variations in child enrollment rate and average household income.     

Is emigration of workers contributing to better schooling outcomes in Nepal?

This paper presents evidence on how emigration for work affects schooling outcomes for primary and secondary school‐age children in Nepal. Using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting past migration network, we show that the identified effects critically depend on how schooling outcomes are measured. While conventional measures of school attendance indicate no impact, our new set of schooling status and schooling gap measures reveals significant impacts. Schooling status measures reveal favorable impacts for girls, and for emigration to India. Schooling gap measures reveal favorable effects of all emigration on schooling outcomes for girls and of emigration to other countries for boys.     

Growing up in a civil war and political participation: Evidence from Guatemala*

Guatemala experienced a 36-year-long civil war from 1960 to 1996. I use this event to understand whether growing up in an area of political violence has any impact on future political participation. I combine data from the distribution of the number of human rights violations during Guatemala's civil war with nationally representative data on political participation from the 2001 Living Standard Measurement Survey. Results suggest that exposure to conflict during youth affects political participation in adulthood. Exposure to conflict has a small negative association with formal political engagement and it has no effect on community participation. The results also indicate a negative relationship between growing up in an area of political violence and trust in the judicial system as adults.     

Long-term impact of investments in early schooling — Empirical evidence from rural Ethiopia

We examine the cumulative impact of early schooling investments on later schooling outcomes using enrollment status and relative grade attainment as short-run and long-run measures of schooling. Using a child-level longitudinal data set from rural Ethiopia, we estimate a dynamic conditional schooling demand function where the coefficient estimate on the lagged dependent variable captures the impact of all previous period schooling inputs and resources. We find that a child who is enrolled in the prior period is 33 percentage points more likely to be enrolled currently. These lagged effects are stronger for girls and for children from higher income households.     

Crop burning and forest fires: Long-term effect on adolescent height in India

This paper examines the effect of biomass burning on adolescent health in India. The biomass burning problem is quite acute especially in North India, with some states experiencing forest fires and few states actively engaging in crop burning practice. We combine remote sensing data on biomass burning events with a pan-India survey on teenage girls (TAG survey). We exploit regional and temporal variation in our data to establish the link between occurrence of extremely high levels of biomass burning during early life and adolescent height for girls in India. Our results indicate that exposure to extremely high level of biomass burning during prenatal and postnatal period is associated with lower height (by 0.7 percent or 1.07 cm) later in life. Girls from North India are found to be especially vulnerable to the harmful effects of exposure to biomass burning.     

Disasters,Household Decisions,and Insurance Mechanisms: A Review of Evidence and a Case Study from a Developing Country in Asia

This article investigates whether and how Asian people's exposure to a variety of disasters undermine their decisions and welfare. Our case study from Vietnam, based on household panel data, shows that households adopt a variety of coping strategies against the damages caused by disasters especially through credit and labor markets. While the consumption risk sharing networks function effectively at the commune level, market and non‐market insurance mechanisms are not sufficient, especially at the regional, national, and international levels. Hence, it is imperative to strengthen market, government, and community based insurance mechanisms to diversify aggregate disaster risks at the individual, national, and regional levels in Asia.     

The effect of women's schooling on fertility

A researcher examined the effect of women's schooling on fertility, paying particular attention to whether women's schooling is an exogenous determinant of fertility. The analyzed data were from the US National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for the years 1985-91. This survey is a random sample of 1500 English-speaking people, at least 18 years old, who live in noninstitutional settings. Estimates were made of children ever born to women aged 35-44 and 45=54 using ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares (with the latter including the schooling of the respondent's parents as variables). Other variables used besides schooling were age, being Black, region at age 16 (relative to the south), type of residence at age 16 (relative to cities of 250,000). being Catholic, being Mormon, and survey year. Using the Hausman test to regress the variable of schooling on the exogenous variables results in a residual, and a t-test on the coefficient for the residual will test for endogeneity. In each group of women, the t-statistic on the residual was 1.1, suggesting that schooling is not highly endogenous with fertility. Schooling does, however, have a highly negative effect on fertility in both estimates. A 10% increase in schooling is associated with a 10-12% decline in fertility for women aged 35-44 and with a 7-10% decline for women aged 45-54. Therefore, schooling can be used as an independent variable without leading to false acceptance of socioeconomic theories of fertility. Schooling may reduce fertility by increasing a woman's income, thus making child rearing more expensive, or by enhancing a woman's ability to control fertility.     

Coffee production effects on child labor and schooling in rural Brazil

I use variation in coffee production to measure changes in local economic conditions, which proxy for the value of children's time. I test how this short-term variation affects child labor and schooling in Brazilian coffee regions using seven rounds of household surveys. Increases in the county-level value of coffee production led to more work among middle-income boys and girls, poorer children were withdrawn from school, while richer children were not affected. Thus, during periods of economic growth, education of the poor may be adversely affected.     

Spending Time and Money within the Household*

We consider, both theoretically and empirically, the allocation of time and money within the household. The research question is whether a married person who enjoys more leisure than their partner also receives more consumption (which seems to indicate the outcome of power within the household) or receives less consumption (which seems to indicate differing intrahousehold preferences). We develop a simple parametric structural model with household production that is tested on survey data. We find that relative wages have an impact on power. For leisure, this effect is dominated by a conventional wage effect, in which the partner who has the higher wage takes less leisure.