The effects of location and sectoral components of economic growth on poverty: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction by differentiating growth and poverty into their sectoral composition and urban–rural location using data from Indonesia. We find that rural services growth reduces poverty in all sectors and locations. However, urban services growth has the largest effect on poverty in most sectors. Finally, we also find that rural agriculture growth strongly reduces poverty in rural areas, the largest contributor to poverty in Indonesia. This implies that while agriculture growth in rural areas still plays a major role in reducing poverty, policies that enable strong growth in the services sector in both urban and rural areas would expedite poverty reduction.     

How strongly can industrial structural transformation affect GDP?

It is well known that when a country develops, its leading industry shifts from agriculture to non-agriculture. This industrial structural transformation has recently attracted considerable attention from scholars. Then, how strongly can this industrial structural transformation affect a country’s income? In this study, we shed light on this research question. More specifically, we measure magnitudes of the industrial structural transformation’s influence on GDP, by examining the following counterfactual GDP. We calculate a country’s counterfactual GDP when the country specializes in agriculture. If the counterfactual GDP is considerably small without the non-agricultural sector, this suggests that the industrial structural transformation from agriculture to non-agriculture is considerably important, in terms of GDP. We use Japan as our sample economy. Consequently, we find that the counterfactual GDP is surprisingly small, which suggests that the industrial structural transformation’s influence on GDP is surprisingly large. We also find that one of the main factors responsible for the surprisingly small counterfactual GDP is land, which has not been deeply examined.     

户籍制度扭曲及放松对经济的影响:理论与实证

户籍制度是我国劳动力流动的主要障碍.那么,当前我国的户籍扭曲程度几何?户籍制度放松对经济又会有怎样的影响?对这些问题的回答将有助于政府评估户籍制度改革的空间和经济效益.文章在Hansen和Prescott(2002)的两部门劳动力流动模型基础上,将工人分为农业和非农户口,引入户籍扭曲因子,构建两部门两类工人的户籍扭曲模型;然后,使用1984?2013年宏观经济数据度量户籍扭曲程度,并对2013年我国户籍制度逐渐放松过程中经济变量的变化进行模拟;最后,文章建立了包含"农业与非农"和"本地与外地"户籍差异的省份异质性户籍扭曲模型.研究表明:(1)经济和户籍制度改革的不同步导致了1984?2013年我国户籍扭曲程度呈现倒"U"形变化,且相较于韩国尚有较大的改善空间;(2)以韩国为参照,若2013年我国户籍制度完全放开,经济达到均衡时,农业部门和非农部门的就业人数将分别下降58.83%和上升26.92%,工资率将分别上升19.44%和下降6.77%,社会增加值将增长15.33%,这说明社会经济效率将得到提升,贫富差距将缩小.文章丰富和完善了户籍扭曲的理论模型,从减少劳动力流动摩擦的视角为政府制定相关政策提供了参考.     

我国西部地区社会主义新农村建设的理论思考

统筹城乡发展、建设社会主义新农村和工业反哺农业是我国工业化中期阶段新型工农关系和城乡关系的概括.根据西部地区大多数农村自然条件差、民族聚居区多、经济发展落后等自然和经济的实际情况,从西部地区存在双层刚性二元经济结构、农村工业化进程缓慢、城镇化进程滞后、大量贫困人口特殊性出发,探讨西部地区建设社会主义新农村的突破点,加快西部地区的社会主义新农村建设步伐,逐步缩小城乡之间差距,进而缩小与东部地区的差距.     

Poverty reduction without economic growth? : Explaining Brazil's poverty dynamics, 1985-2004

Brazil's slow pace of poverty reduction between the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Using GDP data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty-year period, this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty-reducing effectiveness of growth—across sectors, across space, and over time. Growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty-reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry. Growth in industry had different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment. But because there was so little of it, economic growth actually played a relatively small role in accounting for Brazil's poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004. The taming of hyperinflation (in 1994) and a substantial expansion in social security and social assistance transfers, in large part mandated by the 1988 Constitution, accounted for the bulk of the overall reduction in poverty.     

内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想 ,修正外生农业技术进步的假设 ,本文提出了一个内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型 ,并以此对倍受瞩目也颇多争议的“东亚奇迹”及中国经济 ,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为 ,“东亚奇迹”是传统农业劳动力不断转向现代非农业部门的结果 ;是现代部门以资本反哺传统部门 ,推动农业技术进步 ,促进劳动力转移的结果 ;也是现代部门均衡发展 ,吸纳剩余劳动力 ,加速结构转换的结果。因此 ,虽然非农部门的全要素生产率提高不够显著 ,但劳动力结构转换仍然推动经济实现了持久的高速增长。     

Growth,inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.     

The effects of macroeconomic factors on South African agriculture

Significant research efforts have been devoted to understanding the effects of macroeconomic factors on the agriculture sector. Analysing the sources of volatility in the industry is critical for designing appropriate policies to stabilize agricultural markets, reduce poverty and increase economic growth. Agriculture is a competitive sector with prices that are more flexible than those in nonagricultural sectors. This article uses annual data over the 1957–2004 period and a vector error-correction model in investigating the dynamic effects of exchange rates, money supply and other macroeconomic variables on the agricultural sector in South Africa. Overall, real exchange rates, interest rates, inflation and money supply (M3) shocks have significant and persistent impacts on agricultural output, prices received by farmers and farm input prices. M3 and interest rate shocks tend to put agriculture in a cost-price squeeze. Agricultural price movements are a source of macroeconomic instability in the country. Real exchange rate shocks shift relative prices in favour of agriculture in the long-run, thereby, boosting farm incomes and accelerating poverty reduction in the country.     

POVERTY EQUIVALENT GROWTH RATE

This paper proposes a new type of growth rate, called the “poverty equivalent growth rate” (PEGR), which takes into account both the growth rate in mean income and how the benefits of growth are distributed between the poor and the non‐poor. The proposed measure satisfies a basic requirement that the proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function of the PEGR. Thus, maximizing the PEGR implies a maximum reduction in poverty. The paper demonstrates that the magnitude of PEGR determines the pattern of growth: whether growth is pro‐poor in relative or absolute sense or is “poverty reducing” pro‐poor. The pattern of growth has been analyzed for Brazil using the National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995–2005.     

Economic growth,the nature of growth and poverty reduction in rural China

This paper examines some of the major driving forces of poverty reduction in China. Based on time series and cross-sectional provincial data, the determinants of rural poverty incidence are estimated. The results show that economic growth is an essential and necessary condition for nationwide poverty reduction. It is not, however, a sufficient condition. While economic growth played a dominant role in reducing poverty through the mid-1990s, its impact has diminished since that time. Beyond general economic growth, growth in specific sectors of the economy is also found to be effective in reducing poverty. The finding of our paper is consistent with the idea that poverty reduction in the future will need to be adjusted with more emphasis being given on direct targeting through helping the poor to increase their human capital and incomes.     

经济增长对贫困变动的影响及影响途径分析——以新疆农村为例

以农村居民人均纯收入的增长作为经济增长,运用1988～2010年新疆农村人均纯收入分组数据,研究新疆经济增长与农村贫困变动之间的关系,并且对经济增长影响贫困变动的途径进行分析。研究结果表明,经济增长对新疆农村贫困的减少起到了显著的作用,而农业的发展和非农就业的增长是提高农民收入从而减缓农村贫困的主要途径。因此,推动农村经济增长仍然是新疆今后扶贫工作的重点。     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

Poverty Reduction through Growth and Redistribution Policies—a Panel Analysis for 59 Developing Countries

In this paper, we empirically test the determinants of growth, as derived from a semi‐endogenous growth model, in terms of its poverty‐reducing effects. We base our empirical analysis of the growth and distribution effect of economic policies on a panel data set of 59 developing countries, divided into two subgroups, and a sample period ranging from 1960 to 2004. For purposes of estimation we make use of the generalized methods of moments (GMM) system estimator. The estimations reveal a poverty‐reducing effect of investment. In contrast population growth induces higher poverty. The import of knowledge is growth enhancing only for countries at a higher stage of development—meanwhile the positive growth effect of an increasing democratization is limited to the poor developing countries.     

How best to link poverty reduction and debt sustainability in IMF–World Bank models?

This paper attempts to provide an economic model in the context of developing countries to address the policy strategies related to poverty reduction. With a view to deal with the shortcomings of the existing approaches as regards poverty reduction, this paper develops a model on the basis of the policy framework of the IMF and the World Bank to show how demand growth can be a crucial mechanism in determining the potential rate of growth, and then to suggest ways in which poverty—conceptualised officially in absolute terms with a subjective cut‐off point (e.g. US $1/$2 a day), and a new objective measure in terms of consumption deprivation—can be linked with the key policy variables contained in the adjustment programmes. A strategy of investment in infrastructure and in human development, and improving access to credit markets, particularly in rural areas to encourage or ‘crowd in’ private investment is a precondition for growth and poverty alleviation. Debt relief can only provide a temporary, not a sustainable, solution to the problem of reducing poverty.     

Dynamic and long-term linkages among agricultural and non-agricultural growth,inequality and poverty in developing countries

Drawing upon cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study examines the role of agricultural growth in reducing inequality and poverty by modelling the dynamic linkage between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. For this purpose, we have compared the roles of agricultural and non-agricultural growth and have found that agricultural growth is more important in reducing poverty, while the negative effect of agricultural growth on inequality is found in a few cases where specific definitions of inequality are adopted. Our analysis generally reinforces the case for revival of agriculture in the post-2015 discourse, contrary to much-emphasised roles of rural–urban migration and urbanisation as main drivers of growth and elimination of extreme poverty.     

PUBLIC PROGRAMS PARE POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

This study examines the effect of government health care and education programs on the poor in Chile from 2000 to 2006. Results are obtained from a country-wide provincial-level panel data set with information on poverty and indigence head-count ratios, measures on the severity of poverty as captured by the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke P ₂ statistic, per capita public expenditures on health and education, as well as other variables that are thought to influence well-being. We use fixed-effects techniques to correct for time-invariant province-specific characteristics that may affect program placement. Our analysis demonstrates that per capita public health and education expenditures significantly reduce the incidence of poverty and indigence in Chile. In particular, for a 10,000 pesos (about $23) increase in provincial per capita health spending, the poverty head-count ratio decreases by 0.48 percent. Per capita education expenditures are particularly important to reducing the severity of poverty. Our results indicate that for a 10,000 pesos increase in education spending, the severity of poverty declines by as much as 1.53 percent. Furthermore, we provide evidence that public spending in Chile is non-random. In particular, government education expenditures may be allocated in keeping with compensatory motives.     

浅析贫困、经济增长与脱贫时间——基于中国城镇居民调查数据的分析

20世纪90年代以来，经济增长和收入分配不平等对于城镇人口脱贫时间产生了消极影响。研究发现，城镇贫困在1997年达到高峰，然后逐渐缓和；贫困人口的收入增长在初期能使脱贫时间迅速减少，但边际效果是递减的；贫困人口之间的收入分配不平等延长了脱贫时间，如果贫困人口的初始收入增加，则会明显缩短脱贫时间。     

China's (uneven) progress against poverty

While the incidence of extreme poverty fell dramatically in China over 1980–2001, progress was uneven over time and across provinces. Rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor, though migration to urban areas helped. Rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth; agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of GDP. Taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor; local government spending helped them in absolute terms; external trade had little short-term impact. Provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty, due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction.     

The Elasticity of Poverty with respect to Sectoral Growth in Africa

The African continent has grown by more than 4 percent yearly on average during the past decade. However, the link between this remarkable growth rate and poverty reduction is neither obvious nor simple. This paper focuses on the elasticity of poverty with respect to GDP growth at the sectoral level and takes into account the fact that economic growth may affect poverty directly as well as indirectly through sectoral labor share intensity. It develops a methodology that sheds light on the contribution of sectoral growth to poverty reduction country‐by‐country in Africa, guiding policy recommendations. As the composition of growth matters at least as much as its overall intensity, it is key to identify the sectors that have the strongest impact on poverty reduction and unleash their potential; if growth happens to concentrate in sectors with scarce pro‐poor potential, like commodity‐driven growth, redistributive strategies are necessary to compensate the weak effect on poverty.