城镇化中能源消费与二氧化碳排放研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

文章扩展了STIRPAT模型,使用1995-2011年中国30个省级面板数据,研究中国城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗的需求变化与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明:在全国层面上,城镇化增加了对能源消费的刚性需求且对二氧化碳排放具有显著的正向影响。同时,城镇化对二氧化碳排放量影响有明显的区域差异:在东部地区,城镇化水平的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量,但在中西部地区,城镇化水平的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论,文章探讨了未来中国城镇发展的相关对策:适当控制土地城镇化发展速度,积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式,培养市民良好的低碳生活方式,优化与调整地区产业结构与能源消费结构。     

CO2排放的影响因素及预测研究——以江苏为例

发展低碳经济,减少CO2排放是大势所趋.通过对江苏省1996～2010年GDP、产业结构、人口、城市化率、人均收入、能源效率等因素和CO2排放量的数据进行多元回归分析发现:影响江苏CO2排放的因素主要有GDP和第三产业结构比例,其中GDP呈正向驱动效应,第三产业结构比例呈负向驱动效应,且GDP对CO2排放的影响超过第三产业结构比例.同时,预测结果表明:江苏CO2的总体排放量仍呈增加趋势,年均增长7.34％.因此,必须进一步加大产业结构、能源结构的调整和节能技术的发展.     

中国低碳发展的国际比较——历史、现状、问题与对策

从历史角度而言,中国并非全球二氧化碳的主要排放国,对全球气候变化并非负有主要责任。从低碳发展现状来看,中国目前低碳发展形势较为严峻,降低碳排放总量与碳排放强度已成为中国低碳发展道路上两个关键任务。能源消费结构、能源使用效率、产业结构与对外贸易是制约中国实现低碳发展目标的重要因素。推动能源结构优化、提升能源使用效率、转变贸易增长方式、推动产业结构调整与新型工业化建设,是实现中国低碳发展的有效途径。     

广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素

将居民能源消费的二氧化碳排放纳入研究范围,采用LMDI分解法对2000—2011年广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:在影响碳排放增长的各种因素中,经济规模、人口规模和收入对碳排放增加整体上表现为正效应;产业结构、生产部门能源强度、生产部门能源结构和能源碳排放因子整体表现为负效应;生活部门的能源强度和能源结构的效应不确定;总体上正向驱动效应超过负向驱动效应,致使广东省的碳排放量呈不断上升态势。     

以低碳社会促低碳经济发展

工业革命以来，随着物质文明突飞猛进的发展，人类二氧化碳的排放也日益增多，导致温室效应的出现。温室效应的出现以及不断加剧，将给人类文明带来巨大损失以及一些不可逆的影响。如何减少碳排放，进而减缓与解决温室效应，成为全世界共同面临的问题。英国最先给出了答案：发展低碳经济。低碳经济是改变现有能源结构、提高能源使用效率、优化产业结构、减少温室气体排放的一种经济模式。     

我国工业分行业二氧化碳排放差异及影响因素分析——基于改进的STIRPAT模型的面板数据实证分析

以能源强度、能源消费、固定资产投资、产业结构以及滞后一期的二氧化碳排放量为基础,利用改进的STIRPAT模型,采用面板固定效应进行回归分析,对中国工业39分行业二氧化碳排放影响因素进行实证研究。其中以能源强度为代表的能源技术、产业结构、能源消费是影响工业碳减排的主要因素。最后提出了减少二氧化碳排放的相关政策和建议,以适应中国的节能减排以及低碳经济之路。     

低碳经济背景下减排与经济可持续发展研究

低碳经济是实现二氧化碳减排和经济可持续发展的最佳经济模式。因此,我们有必要探索有中国特色的低碳经济之路。文章从经济市场化、能源结构、产业结构方面着手,深入分析了二氧化碳减排与国内生产总值持续增加之间的关系及其影响因素,并探讨了减缓二氧化碳排放与实现经济可持续发展的解决途径。     

基于能源活动的广州市二氧化碳排放清单研究

基于对广州市2010—2013年能源活动二氧化碳排放特征的分析,发现:(1)能源活动二氧化碳排放呈总量上升、强度下降态势,4年间能源活动以年均3.33%的二氧化碳排放增速支撑了地区生产总值年均11.13%的快速增长。(2)从碳排放结构看,火力发电、工业、交通是广州最大碳排放源,约占各年度能源活动排放总量的87%,随着广州经济结构转型,火力发电和工业排放占比呈下降趋势,交通运输排放逐年上升。(3)从碳排放源看,煤炭燃烧排放是碳排放的主要来源,占年度碳排放总量的40%以上。建议:将能源和工业制造业作为广州市"十三五"温室气体排放控制重点对象,进一步推进产业结构和能源结构优化,以宣传示范为重点,倡导低碳生活模式,推进温室气体控制能力建设。     

经济新常态下的低碳城镇化建设路径分析——基于地理加权回归模型

文章运用空间计量的方法来探讨我国东部、中部和西部城镇化与二氧化碳排放的关系并进行比较。首先从省域层面拓展了影响二氧化碳排放的STIRPAT模型,对各省域城镇化与二氧化碳排放的关系进行了分析,后采用地理加权回归模型(GWR)考察了各省域城镇化对二氧化碳排放影响的差异。研究的实证结果显示:能源消耗强度较高的西部地区,由于其城镇化水平较低,所以城镇化进程的加快会带来人口、交通和产业的集聚效益、规模经济效益等效应从而减少二氧化碳排放,而能源消耗强度较低的中东部地区,由于其城镇化水平较高,能源消费中煤炭占比并没有得到优化,所以城镇化的进程加快会带来二氧化碳排放的增加的结果,同时看到其他影响因素与二氧化碳排放之间的关系也同样存在省域差异。通过研究结果可知,加快技术进步优化能源消费结构,是当前减少二氧化碳排放的重要路径。     

中国省域碳强度驱动因素研究--基于空间计量模型

文章基于1995-2011年面板数据,采用空间计量模型,通过构建经济权重矩阵,分别从空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)对中国30个省（市、区）的二氧化碳排放强度驱动因素进行研究。研究结论表明：在样本期间,中国二氧化碳排放强度的Moran指数均为正值,且通过了1%的显著性水平检验,表明其具有显著的空间依赖性,本地区的碳排放强度会受到邻近省份碳排放的显著影响;二氧化碳排放强度与产业结构、能源消费结构、能源强度成正比,与外商直接投资、人均GDP、人口密度成反比。最后,文章提出相关政策建议,即优化产业结构、改善能源使用结构、适当提高建成区的人口密度等能有效降低中国的碳排放强度。     

International differences in emissions intensity and emissions content of global trade

Understanding international differences in the emissions intensity of trade and production is essential to understanding the effects of greenhouse gas limitation policies. We develop data on emissions from 41 industrial sectors in 39 countries and estimate the CO₂ emissions intensity of production and trade. We find no evidence that developing countries specialize in emissions-intensive sectors; instead, our evidence suggests that emissions intensities differ systematically across countries because of differences in production techniques. Our results confirm that international differences in emissions intensity are substantial, but suggest that they do not play a significant factor in determining patterns of trade.     

On market-mediated emissions and regulations on life cycle emissions

We analyze the use of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a regulatory tool using biofuel regulations as an illustrative example. A regulatory context calls for a consequential LCA (CLCA) of a policy as opposed to an attributional LCA (ALCA) of a product. In performing CLCA, issues of scale, price effects, technology and policy in the counterfactual state of the world, strategic behavior, policy horizon etc. need consideration. This appears to increase both uncertainty in estimates and the cost of performing LCA. We suggest heuristics for determining vulnerability to harmful indirect effects at an early stage in the policy process and discuss alternative policies to limit harmful indirect effects without engaging in the full effort of computation and selection of a central estimate for uncertain outcomes.     

EU-type carbon emissions trade and the distributional impact of overlapping emissions taxes

The European Union fulfills its emissions reductions commitments by means of an emissions trading scheme covering some part of each member state’s economy and by national emissions control in the rest of their economies. The member states also levy energy/emissions taxes overlapping with the trading scheme. We investigate the impact of that double regulation on the distribution of national welfares. In certain very special cases emissions tax increases turn out to be exactly offset by permit price reductions such that permit-exporting [permit-importing] countries lose [gain] from an increase in the overlapping emissions tax. These results are not general due to market-interdependence effects, which may even reverse the sign of welfare changes. For that ambiguity and other reasons the case is made for abolishing overlapping taxes.     

Optimal abatement of sulphur emissions in Europe

This study presents a mathematical model for determining cost-effective emissions' control strategies in Europe, by minimizing sulphur abatement costs subject to different pollution control targets. The purpose is to compare the efficiency of a uniform percentage emissions reduction with a scenario that takes variation in environmental conditions into account. Underlying the proposed model is the belief that a full cost-benefit analysis of acid rain abatement is infeasible. The model focuses on the costs of abatement and provides an estimation of the gains (or losses) that countries could achieve if they co-operate in their policies rather than act independently.     

A smooth coefficient model of carbon emissions

I use a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to estimate a generalization of the emissions convergence models derived from the green Solow model proposed by Brock and Taylor (J Econ Growth 15:127–153, 2010). Parametric estimates of simple homogeneous coefficient convergence models suggest that there may be heterogeneity in emissions convergence across different subsamples of observations. The semiparametric models confirm that there is heterogeneity across countries in coefficient estimates; however, such heterogeneity does not appear to be substantial enough to qualitatively influence the estimates derived from the parametric models. Hence, I find that (i) the green Solow model is a robust framework for analyzing carbon emissions convergence and (ii) carbon emissions are converging across a large sample of countries. My results suggest that international agreements that assign pollution rights based on population levels may be agreeable to many nations.     

Pollution control with imperfectly observable emissions

In this paper, a model of environmental regulation with imperfect monitoring of emissions is presented. The regulator can use linear output taxes and emission taxes to influence the pollution level of a risk-averse firm. In contrast to the perfect monitoring case, a tax mix will usually be optimal. The relative weight depends on the degree of risk aversion and monitoring imperfection, and on technological factors.     

Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. Unfortunately, this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions. One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global, not local, disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions–income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate–economy interactions. We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency, (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Multinational taxation and international emissions trading

Many studies have shown that the activities of multinational corporations are quite sensitive to differences in income tax rates across countries. In this paper I explore the interaction between multinational taxation and abatement activities under an international emissions permit trading scheme. Four types of plans are considered: (1) a single domestic permit system with international offsets; (2) separate national permit systems without trade; (3) separate national permit systems with limited offsets; and (4) an international permit trading system. For each plan, I model the incentives for the multinational firm to choose abatement activities at home and abroad and to transfer emissions credits between parent and subsidiary. Limits on trading across countries restrict efficiency gains from abatement, as is well known. But if available offset opportunities are limited to actual abatement activities, those activities are also more susceptible to distortions from incentives to shift taxable income. Transfer-pricing rules can limit but not always eliminate these distortions. In a system of unlimited international trading, abatement is efficiently allocated across countries, but tax shifting can still be achieved through intra-firm transfer pricing. From the basis of efficiency for both environmental and tax policies, the best design is an international permit trading system with transparent, enforceable transfer-pricing rules.     

The political economy of global carbon emissions reductions

The discussion about what reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required and how the emissions rights might be distributed globally has fostered the belief that there is a fundamental conflict between the rich nations of the “North” and the poor but populous nations of the “South.” The argument is that grandfathering the rights will only reinforce existing global inequalities, while per capita distribution of the rights would lead to such huge transfers of wealth to the South as to be unacceptable to the North. However, a very simple general equilibrium model highlighting key elements of the global economy shows that this perception is incorrect under a plausible interpretation of the goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to “avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Instead of using an economic damage function to determine the optimal level of emissions reductions, the model's utility functions are calibrated to reflect scientific understanding of what would be required to stabilize the atmosphere at safe concentrations of greenhouse gases. Among policy options that would accomplish this, the United States has a preference for grandfathering the allocation of emissions rights over a per capita allocation, but this preference is not strong and could be offset by other geopolitical considerations.     

The effect of ESCOs on carbon dioxide emissions

Proponents of energy service companies (ESCOs) argue that these firms provide a crucial instrument for delivering improved energy efficiency in public and private sectors, thus contributing to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reduction around the world. Do ESCOs reduce CO₂ emissions? To answer this question, we develop an estimating equation, which approximates the IPAT model, from a simple model of production. We estimate a dynamic panel of 129 countries over the period 1980–2007 to show that the ESCOs effectively reduce CO₂ emissions and that this effect increases over time. These findings also prove robust to the inclusion of a set of control variables, different dates of the first ESCO and the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, we discuss energy policy implications.