Minimac : A small integrated model of the financial and real sectors of the Swedish economy

The model emphasizes the financial part of the economy and the channels through which the central bank and the government can affect it. The model combines a complete flow of fund matrix with an income–expenditure scheme in a common framework. The consistency of the flow of funds matrix is achieved through residual determination of one asset/liability from each financial balance identity. The model describes the Swedish credit market after the abolition of credit market regulation. Thus the policy instruments included comprise – among others – the interest rate scale, the cash reserve requirement, the exchange rate, government consumption and differential tax rates but no direct regulation of bank advances or investment in government securities. The model mechanisms are illustrated with policy simulations. Those display, in some instances, processes which after some periods tend to reverse the intended effects of the original policy measure. They therefore point to the need for a strategy which involves a sequential use of several policy instruments.     

Cash policy and the bank-firm relationship

Bank health affects a firm's cash holding - a healthy bank can result in either more (because of the influential bank power) or less (because of precautionary motive) firm-level cash holding. Motivated by the contrasting views in the existing literature, this paper investigates whether bank policy determines firm-level cash policy. Using Japanese firm-level data over 2000–2014, we find that the difference in bank health effects stems from the firm's investment status. We find that healthy banks induce growing firms to hold more cash while declining firms hold more cash when borrowing from unhealthy banks. Furthermore, we find that banks with more liquidity also induce their growing borrowers to have more cash. Our results are robust to the endogeneity of bank selection. Our study indicates that bank-firm relationship can serve as an advance-signalling device for a firm's shareholder-wealth-maximizing investments and contributes to the literature that explains the cash holding puzzle.     

Identifying monetary policy shocks with changes in open market operations

In this paper, we reexamine the effects of monetary policy shocks by exploiting the information contained in open market operations. A sticky price model is developed where money is the counterpart of securities deposited at the central bank. The model's solution reveals that a rise in central bank holdings of open market securities can be interpreted as a monetary expansion. Estimates of vector autoregressions for US data are further provided showing that reactions to an unanticipated rise in open market securities are consistent with common priors about a monetary expansion, i.e., a decline in the federal funds rate, a rise in output, and inertia in price responses. Compared to federal funds rate shocks, prices do not exhibit a puzzling behavior and a larger fraction of the GDP forecast error variance can be attributed to open market shocks. However, the explanatory power of the latter has decreased since federal funds rate targets have been announced.     

国库现金转存商业银行的货币政策效应研究——基于Hollenhorst扩展框架的分析

本文构建了国库现金转存商业银行对货币政策影响的分析框架,研究表明,国库现金转存商业银行的货币政策效应主要取决于存款扩张乘数、国库现金抵押需求、公众贷款需求和国库现金存款形成的贷款对国内商品和服务的需求水平等因素。存款扩张乘数越大,国库现金对商业银行信贷水平的影响就越强。国库现金存款的抵押债券需求比例对信贷供给造成了反向影响,抵押比例越高,商业银行必须留出越多的储备购买债券,从而政府国库现金存款的增加可能导致信贷增量的下降。在平滑国库现金影响的政策选择上,中央银行表现出一定的被动性,通过制定国库现金存款的区别法定准备金率是中央银行调控国库现金影响货币政策的重要手段。     

货币紧缩、产权性质与公司现金持有

宏观经济政策如何影响公司微观行为是最近几年比较新的领域。本文运用中国上市公司2001—2011年的年度数据,探讨了货币紧缩政策对公司现金持有的影响以及产权性质对这种影响的作用。本文发现,货币紧缩政策对公司的现金持有具有负向影响,即处于货币政策紧缩阶段,公司的现金持有会显著减少。相比于国有企业,货币紧缩政策对民营企业的现金持有影响更大,民营企业的现金持有在货币紧缩阶段减少得更多。本文进一步分析发现,在货币紧缩阶段,公司当期投资并未出现下降。这说明在货币紧缩阶段,为确保当期投资顺利进行,公司会使用自有现金来补充由于银行信贷减少引起的资金不足。     

MARKET VALUE ACCOUNTING AND THE BANK BALANCE SHEET

Market value accounting for depository institutions is frequently suggested as a means of limiting losses to the deposit insurance funds. But opponents argue that market value accounting is too costly to be worth the effort. This article examines each balance sheet category to determine the feasibility of marking bank portfolios to market. One can assume that almost two-thirds of the asset side and over half of the liability side already are at market. In addition, securities and loans to less-developed countries are traded in secondary markets. Thus, the major cost of market value accounting would be computing current values of commercial loans through discounted cash flow analysis. But efforts now are under way in the private sector to develop less costly ways to determine market values. If market value accounting is adopted, then it will likely have its greatest effect on institutions with large holdings of loans to less-developed countries.     

Inside the bank lending channel

This paper tests cross-sectional differences in the effectiveness of the bank lending channel. The results, derived from a comprehensive sample of Italian banks, suggest that heterogeneity in the monetary policy pass-through exists. After a monetary tightening the decrease in lending is lower for well-capitalized banks that are perceived as less risky by the market and are better able to raise uninsured deposits. Liquid banks can protect their loan portfolio against monetary tightening simply by drawing down cash and securities. The presence of internal capital markets in bank holding companies also contributes to insulate monetary shocks. Bank size is never relevant.     

Liquidity risk and bank portfolio management in a financial system without deposit insurance: Empirical evidence from prewar Japan

Using data from prewar Japan, this paper investigates the impact of a liquidity shock induced by depositors' behavior on bank portfolio management during financial crises in a system lacking deposit insurance. It is found that banks reacted to the liquidity shock sensitively through an increase in their cash holdings not by liquidating bank loans but by selling securities in the financial market. Moreover, banks exposed to local financial contagion adjusted the liquidity of their portfolio mainly by actively selling and buying their securities in the financial market. Finally, there is no evidence to conclude that the existence of the lender of last resort mitigated the liquidity constraints in bank portfolio adjustments.     

The impact of regulatory measures on commercial bank interest rates: A micro analysis of the Barbados case

This study estimates the impact on commercial banks' interest-rate behavior of the more pervasive regulatory measures adopted by the Central Bank of Barbados. The results indicate that the cash ratio, the stipulated government securities ratio, and the savings deposit rate floor significantly impacted the loan rate for every bank. Generally, the deposit rate for any given bank has been responsive to fewer policy variables than the loan rate. The loan rates, though generally responsive to all policy variables other than the bank rate, have exhibited very low elasticities. The results indicated that the ceiling on the average lending rate, when it existed, depressed loan rates by less than 1 percent on average. This is largely attributable to the Central Bank's policy of adjusting the ceiling in line with market trends.     

投机资本流入、利率政策的两难问题和货币政策工具的最优搭配

本文构建理论模型分析了如何选择利率和存款准备金率工具的最优搭配,从而在防止通货膨胀和防止热钱流入之间取得最佳平衡。模型显示存款准备金率只对银行贷款起直接抑制作用,当人们通过非银行渠道融资时,可规避准备金率的限制,使其效果下降。而利率政策通过套利机制也对非银行融资起直接限制作用。而且利率政策可以避免对信贷资金分配的不对称限制,使资金分配更平衡有效,所以利率政策相对占优。但当利率吸引投机资本时,可搭配使用准备金率政策以减少利率需要提高的程度,以减少热钱流入。     

Monetary Policy Shocks and Heterogeneous Finance Decisions: A Model of Hidden Effort Choice and Financial Intermediation

Abstract. The paper investigates how monetary policy shocks influence the composition of firms' external finance given that firms are heterogeneous. Heterogeneity stems from differences in the availability of internal funds and in the monitoring costs associated with bank finance. These costs are determined by the intensity of the lending relationship. By using a delegated monitoring approach it is found that bank loans serve as a substitute for internal funds if the lending relationship is sufficiently close. Moreover, banks with strong credit ties to their customers are not only able to protect borrowers from liquidity constraints following a monetary tightening but are even able to extend their business lending.     

中国的政策性金融和邮政储蓄的关系研究

本文的主要目的是分析政策性金融的资金和邮政储蓄的关系。通过分析 ,提出了以下几点看法 :( 1 )自 1 994年以后 ,中央银行仍然维持邮政储蓄资金转存关系的主要原因是为了确保向政策性银行提供资金。 ( 2 )在我国目前的政策性金融制度下 ,邮政储蓄是政策性金融的重要资金来源之一 ,而中央银行实际上起到了部分的“中间机构”的作用。所谓邮政储蓄抽走农村资金这一说法并不准确。 ( 3 )通过对政策性金融的利率结构的详细分析 ,提出了中央银行对财政实施间接补贴的两种解释。最后 ,作者指出了制度上存在的一些问题 ,并提出了相应的改革建议。     

Announcements credibility and government securities: evidence from Colombia

This article evaluates the effect of central bank announcements on government securities yields in emerging economy. In particular, based on the Colombian experience, we present empirical evidence to address the effect of credibility scenario in which the central bank announcements are made. The findings denote that credibility performance must be taken into account to verify the impact of monetary policy announcements.     

Does a firm’s supplier concentration affect its cash holding?

High supplier concentration (SC) of a firm can weaken the firm’s bargaining power, which reduces its profitability and internal funds. Also, high SC likely increases the firm’s exposure to supply shocks, which results in high costs of external financing. Consequently, high-SC firms will incline to hold more cash due to the precautionary concern. However, there is little research into the effect of SC on cash holdings. This paper investigates how SC affects cash holdings with Chinese firms over 2009–2016. We find that a firm’s cash holding increases with its SC. Further investigations show that this positive relation stems from the unfavorable impact of SC on trade credit and equity financing. Our results are robust to different tests including the instrumental variable approach and the propensity score matching. Our findings are new to the literature and help to explain the cash holding puzzle. Our study also indicates that choosing supplier concentration adequately is important in maintaining a firm’s financial health.     

The changing role of dividends: a firm-level study from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century

Abstract .  We investigate the changes in dividend policy for one of North America's oldest banks (and Canada's first bank), Bank of Montreal, over time by considering the relationships between dividends, prices and earnings for this prominent firm. In the early part of the sample we find that annual dividend and earnings changes are highly variable, with dividend changes following changes in earnings and a larger portion of investors' returns coming from dividends. Since World War II dividend policy has been characterized by more stable and gradual increases in dividends, with more of investors' returns coming from capital gains. Overall, our results suggest that investors' perception of dividends has changed over time, allowing management to pay smaller dividends and reinvest funds in the firm.     

BANK INTEREST MARGINS AND BUSINESS START-UP COLLATERAL: TESTING FOR CONVEXITY

The paper investigates the relationship between bank interest rate margins and collateral for loans issued to new ventures. The analysis finds a convex U‐shaped relationship. The results indicate that while provision of collateral initially reduces bank exposure to risk (through security, more optimal levels of capital and lower moral hazard among entrepreneurs) that beyond a point, the positive risk‐wealth association gives rise to greater risk taking propensity among entrepreneurs and ultimately higher interest rates. This indicates that a lender's pricing policy may even somewhat help to level the competitive playing field between ventures launched by higher and moderately wealthy entrepreneurs.     

货币政策对金融生态的影响机理及实证检验——基于上市商业银行面板数据的分析

传统的货币理论忽视了货币政策对银行风险承担及金融生态的影响,文章从商业银行的微观视角出发研究了货币政策对金融生态的影响机理。理论层面,金融生态与货币政策制度供给、传导机制和有效性相互关联,货币政策则通过资产价格或估值机制、收入及现金流机制、追求收益机制、杠杆调整机制、道德风险机制和风险转移机制影响商业银行的风险承担;实证层面,构建了货币政策影响商业银行信贷投放和风险承担的数理模型,选取国有和股份制两类共12家上市商业银行2008-2013年的面板数据进行固定效应模型实证检验。结果表明,宽松货币政策导致商业银行的信贷投放规模增加、风险承担意愿增强,有利于优化金融生态,反之则反是;国有商业银行对货币政策变化更敏感,而股份制商业银行对金融生态更敏感。因此,在我国宏观经济管理中,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协调配合。     

沈阳市老年人理财探究

通过了解沈阳市老年人平均收入情况,结合非理性购买理论的知识,发现沈阳市老年人由于受对投资方式的信息了解不足、低卷入等方面影响易产生非理性购买行为。并通过不同投资方式的分析,结合沈阳市老年人的特点,得出老年人较适合投资基金和将其资金存放在银行获取少量利息的结论,认为这样能够提高老年人生活质量。     

Inflation in Open Economies with Complete Markets

This paper uses an overlapping generations model to analyze monetary policy in a two-country model with asymmetric shocks. Agents insure against risk through the exchange of a complete set of real securities. Each central bank is able to commit to the contingent monetary policy rule that maximizes domestic welfare. In an attempt to improve their country’s terms of trade of securities, central banks choose to commit to costly inflation in favorable states of nature. In equilibrium the effects on the terms of trade wash out, leaving both countries worse off. Countries facing asymmetric shocks may therefore gain from monetary cooperation.     

A model of takeovers of foreign banks

This paper investigates the determinants of the takeover of a foreign bank by a domestic bank whereby the former becomes a branch of the latter. Each bank is initially supervised by a national agency that cares about closure costs and deposit insurance payouts, and may decide the early closure of the bank on the basis of supervisory information. Under the principle of home country control, the takeover moves responsibility for both the supervision of the foreign bank and the insurance of the foreign deposits to the domestic agency. It is shown that the takeover is more likely to happen if the foreign bank is small (relative to the foreign banking market) and its investments are risky (relative to those of the domestic bank). Moreover, the takeover is in general welfare improving for both countries.