我国经济增长与股票市场发展的关系研究

中国股票市场经过十几年的发展,已经具备了一定的规模。本文运用计量方法,选用2000年至2007年的季度时间序列数据,对中国股票市场发展与经济增长的因果关系和协整关系并对股市规模和经济增长做了向量误差修正模型并进行了脉冲响应分析,实证结果表明中国股票市场与经济增长之间存在着由经济增长到股票市场发展的双向因果关系,而股票市场规模扩张及股市活跃程度对经济增长的影响十分微弱。     

中国沪市股票量价关系的实证研究

股票价格和成交量作为股票市场的两个重要变量,包含了交易中的一些重要信息。本文选用上海A股综合指数的收益率和成交量对数这两个变量进行研究,运用计量软件进行ADF检验和协整检验,并且利用格兰杰因果检验研究股票价格和成交量之间的关系,得到沪市存在量价之间双向的格兰杰因果关系,最后再进行脉冲响应和方差分析。     

中国房地产市场与股票市场相关性的实证研究——基于预期效应、财富效应与替代效应的传递机制

本文利用1998年第一季度到2011年第三季度的季度数据,基于预期效应、财富效应与替代效应的传递机制来研究中国房地产市场与股票市场之间的相关性。研究结果表明,在长期内,预期效应与替代效应的传递作用微弱以及关系复杂导致房地产市场与股票市场长期不存在稳定关系;在短期内,房地产市场对股票市场的替代效应引起的负效应起主导作用且较显著,股票市场对房地产市场的财富效应引起的正效应起主导作用但较微弱,两者存在相互的Granger因果关系。     

中国股市收益率与流动性指标之间的关联分析

股票市场的流动性和收益之间的关系一直以来都受到了学术界的广泛关注.在本文当中,我们通过Spearman相关系数和VAR模型的方法对我国股票市场的收益率和主要流动性指标进行了相关性分析.结果发现,我们所选取的几种流动性指标和收益率之间都存在着一定的因果关系,也就是说我国股市存在流动性溢价.     

浅谈沪深股市协整性

目前沪深股票市场彼此联动的现象比较明显.本文运用计量经济中的协整理论对l 994年7月20日-2010年1月19日的上证综指和深证成指的收盘价数据进行了联动性分析,并就其因果关系进行了讨论.研究结果表明,沪深两市之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并且两者互为因果关系.     

浅谈沪深股市协整性

目前沪深股票市场彼此联动的现象比较明显。本文运用计量经济中的协整理论对1994年7月20日-2010年1月19日的上证综指和深证成指的收盘价数据进行了联动性分析,并就其因果关系进行了讨论。研究结果表明,沪深两市之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并且两者互为因果关系。     

系统风险及其传递效应——来自上海和香港股票市场的经验证据

本文以资本资产定价模型(CAPM)作为广义自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH)的均值方程,对2001年11月1日到2006年10月31日上海股票市场和香港股票市场的系统风险进行研究,并借助协整理论和Granger因果关系检验对这两个市场的系统风险之间的传递效应进行分析。结果表明,在研究期内,上海股票市场的系统风险急速下滑,其股价抗政策性风险的力量在加强;而香港股票市场的系统风险保持相对稳定。另外,Granger因果关系检验结果显示,在以过去五年的数据为样本时,系统风险从香港股票市场传递到上海股票市场;在以过去两年的数据为子样本进行检验时,恰好相反,系统风险由上海A股市场传递到香港股票市场。基于两个股票市场的现实特征,本文给出了相应解释。     

股票市场与外汇市场的关联性实证研究——基于大陆和香港的比较市场分析

本文主要对大陆和香港的股票市场与外汇市场的关联性进行实证研究,结果表明大陆股市与汇市之间无论从长期还是短期来看都存在紧密的联系。香港股市与汇市长期来看存在协整关系,短期不存在因果关系。最后结合大陆与香港金融市场的特点,给出了一些政策性建议。     

我国债券市场和股票市场收益率波动溢出效应实证研究

本文通过建立ARCH族模型对债券市场和股票市场的收益率波动进行了处理,并用条件方差进行了Granger因果关系检验,用来衡量波动的溢出效应,最后我们发现以上证指数和企债指数衡量的收益率波动之间存在双向的因果关系,即存在着波动溢出效应.     

房地产市场和股票市场关系的实证研究

房地产市场是国民经济中的一个重要组成部分,它的兴衰对国民经济的影响非常大,而股票市场是国民经济的晴雨表,为研究俩者之间的关系,本文构建了因果关系模型,运用Eviews软件对房价指数和沪深300指数进行实证分析.实证结果表明:房价指数和沪深300指数之间存在相当的关联,占主导作用的是财富效应,即房地产市场的兴旺会带动股票市场的兴旺.     

An empirical analysis of the stock price-volume relationship

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between absolute stock price changes and trading volume in the stock market. Using Granger causality tests we find that there is a significant causal relationship between absolute price changes and volume at the firm level and that this relationship is stronger in periods surrounding earnings announcements. We view this as suggesting that information arrival follows a sequential rather than a simultaneous process, although the results do not support an extreme version of either information arrival model.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Sectoral Responses of the Chinese Stock Market to International Oil Shocks

We investigate the relationship between international oil shocks and the sectoral dynamics of the Chinese stock market. Our empirical results show that the behavior and response to international oil shocks by the Chinese stock market differ significantly from the behavior and responses of the European stock market as documented in the literature. In China, only the mining industry has a strong and consistent link with international oil shocks when systematic risk factors are controlled. There is no clear evidence of asymmetries in China's sectoral stock-oil relationship.     

An examination of the impact of India's performance in one-day cricket internationals on the Indian stock market

This study examines the impact of the Indian cricket team's performance in one day international cricket matches on returns on the Indian stock market. The main conclusion of the study is that there exists an asymmetric relationship between the performance of the Indian cricket team and stock returns on the Indian stock market. While a win by the Indian cricket team has no statistically significant upward impact on stock market returns, a loss generates a significant downward movement in the stock market. When Sachin Tendulker, India's most popular cricketer, plays the size of the downward movement in returns is larger.     

管理层能力与股价崩盘风险——基于盈余管理中介效应的检验

利用2007—2016年我国证券市场上市公司A股数据,研究管理层能力与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,并在此基础上探究不同盈余管理方式在两者关系中发挥的作用。结果表明：上市公司管理层能力越强,股价崩盘风险越小;真实盈余管理程度在管理层能力与股价崩盘风险关系中表现的中介效应更显著。     

Does Weak Governance Cause Weak Stock Returns? An Examination of Firm Operating Performance and Investors' Expectations

We investigate Gompers, Ishii, and Metrick's (2003) finding that firms with weak shareholder rights exhibit significant stock market underperformance. If the relation between poor governance and poor returns is causal, we expect that the market is negatively surprised by the poor operating performance of weak governance firms. We find that firms with weak shareholder rights exhibit significant operating underperformance. However, analysts' forecast errors and earnings announcement returns show no evidence that this underperformance surprises the market. Our results are robust to controls for takeover activity. Overall, our results do not support the hypothesis that weak governance causes poor stock returns.     

Stock liquidity and dividend policy: Evidence from an imputation tax environment

This paper investigates the impact of stock market liquidity on firms' dividend payout policy in the Australian market. The finding suggests that stock liquidity positively relates to firm dividend payouts. The result holds after controlling for different model estimations and different measures of stock liquidity/dividend. To address endogeneity issue, I use the removal of broker identities by the ASX in 2005 as an exogenous shock to stock liquidity. The result suggests that there is an increase in stock liquidity around this shock, leading to an increase in firm dividend, suggesting a causal effect of stock liquidity on firm dividend. I further document that stock liquidity enhances firm dividend through reducing cash-flow volatility and the effect of stock liquidity on firm dividend is weaker for firms reporting imputation tax credit.     

Effects of investor sentiment and country governance on unexpected conditional volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from global stock markets

This paper first investigates the relationship between investor sentiment, captured by internet search behaviour, and the unexpected component of stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data on 12 major stock markets, our research indicates a positive correlation between the Google search volume index on COVID-19 and the unexpected volatility of stock markets. The result suggests that greater COVID-19-related investor sentiment during this pandemic is associated with higher stock market uncertainty.Our study further examines whether country-level governance plays a role in protecting stock markets during this pandemic and reveals that the unexpected conditional volatility is lower when a country's governance is more effective. The impact of investor sentiment and country governance on unexpected volatility after the initial shock of COVID-19 is also investigated. The findings demonstrate the importance of establishing good country-level governance that can effectively reduce stock market uncertainty in the context of this pandemic, and support continual policy development related to investor protection.     

Investor mood and the determinants of stock prices: an experimental analysis

We examine, in a controlled experimental setting, whether changes in investor mood cause changes in the determinants of stock prices. Our results show that a deterioration in mood, reflected in the negative dimensions of mood state, increases the level of risk aversion in male, but not female, investors. We find no evidence to suggest that a change in mood impacts on investors' forecasts of future earnings or future cash flows. By establishing the causal impact of a change in mood on risk aversion, our study provides support for archival research that relates various market anomalies to investor mood.     

Consumer confidence indices and stock markets' meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries' economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets' investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements [DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann. 1990. “Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets.” Journal of Political Economy 98 (4): 703–738]; however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive. We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.