Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis

The paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ("monsoons"), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. The paper also finds evidence of contagion in the stock market.     

参考一篮子货币的人民币汇率形成机制研究——基于人民币有效汇率目标的分析

文章主要研究如何建立参考一篮子货币的汇率制度,首先分析了人民币对美元汇率、人民币对非美元货币和人民币有效汇率之间的关系。其次研究了从人民币钉住美元货币汇率向参考一篮子货币汇率制度(人民币有效汇率目标)的过渡,以及建立一篮子货币汇率机制的方法和实证模拟研究,并考察了人民币汇率的波动幅度。最后文章认为人民币汇率制度的市场化改革是我国汇率体制改革的最终目标,并给出了本文的主要结论。     

Currency substitution and seignorage in eastern europe

Economic and political uncertainty, high inflation and liberalization of foreign exchange restrictions have encouraged substantial currency substitution in the economies in transition. This paper presents empirical evidence on currency substitution in four Eastern European countries in transition: Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. It is shown how currency substitution affects money demand and by that seignorage revenues. The empirical estimates of the money demand functions are used to calculate the seignorage maximizing rate of inflation in the economies in transition.     

Development of the banking system under the Estonian currency board

The choice of a suitable exchange rate regime is the subject of numerous discussions in economic literature. Estonia has been successful in achieving economic stabilization and growth and steadily declining inflation. It has one of the highest per capita foreign direct investments in central and eastern Europe. Estonia also has one of the most liberalized economies among all transition countries. An essential element of the success of Estonian economic development is strict exchange rate control. Estonia has adopted a currency board that serves as a signal of commitment to prudent monetary policy and as a guarantee of sound money during the transition period. This paper discusses the experience of operating the currency board, some future prospects of the currency board arrangement, and the development of the banking system in Estonia.     

人民币升值能改变中国的贸易顺差吗

本文使用非线性平滑转换模型研究了人民币升值对我国贸易顺差的动态影响,研究发现在样本时期内非线性模型能更好地拟合两者的动态关系,在非线性条件下,当期人民币升值将会使贸易顺差增加,前两期人民币升值将会导致当期贸易顺差减少,人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响表现出很强的非线性门限特征。人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的时间路径像是一个"倒J-曲线"。2000年以来人民币汇率虽然一直在发挥着降低贸易顺差的作用,但是,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差形成的主要原因。     

Monetary stabilization in countries in transition

The best way to prevent hyperinflation when domestic prices are liberalized is to initiate the transition from a planned economy to a market economy with a currency reform. In the following period, moderate inflation and flexible exchange rates are suitable to facilitate relative price adjustments. Only after the bulk of alignments has been accomplished can a switch in the exchange rate regime be convenient. The nominal peg of a stable reference currency lowers the level and the variance of domestic inflation rates. The credibility of an exchange rate target may best be achieved by combining a currency board (objective sustainability) with a crawling peg (political sustainability). Price stability can be realized in the long run by reducing the annual depreciation rate in regular, preannounced steps.     

Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI.     

Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach

In this paper we examine the nature of a currency crisis. We do so by employing an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to analyse the Mexican crisis in 1994. Forecast evaluation was based on modern econometric techniques concerning the shape of forecaster’s loss function. We also extend the empirical framework suggested by Jeanne and Masson [Jeanne, O., Masson, P., 2000. Currency crises and Markov-switching regimes. Journal of International Economics 50, 327–350] to test for the hypothesis that the currency crisis was driven by sunspots. To this end we contribute to the existing literature by comparing Markov regime switching model with a time-varying transition probabilities with two alternative models. The first is a Markov regime switching model with constant transition probabilities. The second is a linear benchmark model. Empirical results show that the proxy for the probability of devaluation is an important factor explaining the nature of currency crisis. More concretely, when the expectation market pressure was used as a proxy of probability of devaluation, forecast evaluation supports the view that currency crisis was driven by market expectation unrelated to fundamentals. Alternatively, when interest rate differential is used as a proxy for probability of devaluation, currency crisis was due to predictable deterioration of fundamentals.     

Passthrough Estimates and the Choice of an Exchange Rate Index*

We examine exchange rate passthrough into US import prices for 29 manufacturing industries using eight exchange rate indexes. These indexes vary by the number of currencies included; whether the weight on each currency is based on total trade with the United States or solely imports; and, whether the weights vary by industry. Our results indicate that passthrough is generally incomplete but varies across industries. Moreover, passthrough is sensitive to the exchange rate index. Using bootstrapped J‐tests we show that major currency indexes perform better than their broad currency counterparts. When using a major currency index, industry‐specific exchange rate indexes are preferred to aggregate indexes.     

Weights and Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Adjustments with Reference to a Basket of Currencies Following the Exchange Rate System Reform of 2010

This paper constructs an RMB/USD exchange rate index and a basket currency exchange rate index. The correlation maximization of the RMB/USD and the basket currency index may determine the weight and quantity of the basket currency. The currency basket indicates that the weight of the USD is highest, whereas that of the GB Pound is the lowest. Our currency basket has a high linear dependence on that of the central bank. We found that the RMB/USD and currency basket indices have a long-term co-integration relationship according to the optimal currency weights. The results of the error-correcting model manifest as the RMB/USD exchange rate deviates from the long-term equilibrium level, wherein 76.3% will be corrected. This paper checks the prediction capacity, which indicates the good fit of the model. By using the Granger causality test the findings show that the People＇s Bank of China adjusts the RMB/USD exchange rate with reference to the currency basket.     

Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

This paper analyses the differences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for the three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.     

Currency substitution,policy rule and pass-through: evidence from Turkey

In this article we analyse empirically currency substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the Turkish Economy, where their ongoing presence could undermine the implementation of a successful monetary policy, especially in a flexible exchange rate regime. Even though a considerable time has passed after the implementation of a flexible exchange rate regime in Turkey, by using Vector Error Correction model for the period from 1987 to 2004, we find that the currency substitution and exchange rate pass-through still have importance in the Turkish Economy and the monetary policy stance has been considerably strong, possibly, as a response of ongoing presence of them. If this is the case, to avoid the undesired consequences of this strong monetary policy, Turkey should consider some policy measures to reduce the degree of pass-through and currency substitution.     

Currency internationalization and valuation effects: based on the threshold model

ABSTRACT

Based on the three functions of currency internationalization, including exchange medium, pricing currency and foreign reserve, this paper explores how the degree of currency internationalization affects the impact of the exchange rate and the asset price on valuation effects. Using samples of 161 countries or regions from 2001 to 2016 and the threshold regression method, we find that, firstly, there is a threshold effect of the exchange rate on valuation effects due to currency internationalization. The higher the comprehensive level of currency internationalization is, the greater the positive impact of the exchange rate on valuation effects will be. Secondly, the threshold effect of the asset price on valuation effects due to currency internationalization is not significant because of the high stickiness of asset price. Besides, compared with developed countries, currency internationalization is more important to increase valuation effects through exchange rate channel and asset price channel in developing countries or regions. Finally, there are some differences in the three types of currency internationalization functions. The promotion of exchange medium function will lead to a greater positive impact of the exchange rate on valuation effects, as well as pricing currency function. However, the foreign reserve function has no such effect.     

Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero

In a fixed exchange rate system, any expectation that the peg may be abandoned will normally be reflected in an interest rate differential between instruments denominated in domestic and anchor currencies: the possibility of a revaluation will drive domestic interest rates below those in the anchor currency, for example. However, when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound, there is limited scope for exchange rate expectations to be reflected in interest rate differentials. Here we introduce a new mechanism, based on the central bank balance sheet, which works to bring about equilibrium in currency markets even when interest rates are zero. An expectation of exchange rate appreciation will cause foreign exchange reserves to swell, increasing the cost to policy‐makers of allowing an appreciation and, therefore, lowering the likelihood of the fixed exchange rate being abandoned. Under normal circumstances, this channel reinforces the equilibrating effect of interest rate differentials. When interest rates cannot adjust only this channel operates, implying that much larger changes in reserves are required to equilibrate currency markets. We develop a simple model to illustrate these arguments and find support for the predictions of the model using data for Hong Kong, the world's largest economy with a currency board.     

货币国际化水平的影响因素分析——来自国家层面多边数据的经验证据

本文从货币发行国与使用国角度入手，基于国家层面多边（多种货币在多个国家使用)外汇交易数据，采用货币发行分布和货币使用分布指标衡量货币国际化水平，对影响货币国际化水平的因素进行实证分析，结果表明：货币发行国的经济体量越大、金融市场发展程度越高、货币网络外部性越大，其货币国际化水平越高。同时货币发行国与使用国间汇率波动越小、贸易投资额越大、地理和文化间距离越近，则使用国越倾向使用该货币。     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory*

We test whether the exchange regime in place has an impact on the vulnerability of countries to currency crises. Our paper is distinguishable from others (i) in its use of extreme value theory to identify currency crisis periods and (ii) in using two separate designations for the exchange regime in place. The first is the self‐reported or announced exchange rate system. The second classification scheme, by Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger, is based on the relative movements of international reserves and exchange rates. The Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger procedure is intended to reveal the actual as distinct from the “legal” exchange arrangement. We find, interestingly, that the announced exchange regime has an impact on the likelihood of currency crises, while the “true” or observed regime does not. Announced pegged exchange regimes increase the risk of currency crisis even if, in reality, the exchange rate system in place is not pegged.     

汇率决定中的货币替代——以中国相关数据验证

在考虑汇率的影响因素时,传统的汇率决定理论主要是从一国的宏观基本因素进行分析.随着经济全球化的出现,货币的跨国流动规模越来越大,货币替代现象日益严重,对汇率的干扰也越来越强.本文在货币分析法的基础上加入货币替代因素,建立了一个简单的分析框架,并运用我国的相关数据对此进行检验,证实货币替代确实对汇率产生了很大的影响.     

Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate

We calculated the real effective exchange rate indexes and measured their volatilities based on four currency baskets to find which currency basket is optimal for achieving China's policy target of keeping exchange rates stable. The volatility of the bilateral exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar is also calculated to make a comparative analysis. Results showed that the bilateral exchange rate of the RMB and the US dollar is only stable in special time periods. In most time periods, pegging to the G3 currency basket is optimal to achieve the goal of stabilizing exchange rates while pegging to the AMU currency basket will result in the most volatile exchange rates.     

Currency Boards in the Baltic Countries: What Have We Learned?

Straightforward exchange rate arrangements known as currency boards have gained popularity during the past decade. Among transition economies, Estonia first introduced a currency board in 1992, followed by Lithuania in 1994 and Bulgaria in 1997. Currency boards have been useful in achieving macroeconomic stabilisation, and they may have helped the Baltics become the first countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) to achieve economic growth after the slump in production of the early 1990s. Moreover, Baltic inflation performance has been substantially better than in other FSU countries. Both in Estonia and Lithuania the present exchange rate system has been accompanied by strong real appreciation of the currency, although it is widely accepted that the currencies were very much undervalued when they were initially pegged. However, if rapid real appreciation is accompanied by increases in labour productivity, the present pegs can be maintained. Banking crises in Estonia and Lithuania have not been particularly severe, so apparently rigid currency pegs have not been accompanied by excessive financial sector instability. The tight fiscal policies pursued in both countries, especially Estonia, have been instrumental to the success of these currency board arrangements.     

CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY AND LINKAGE BETWEEN CHINESE OFFICIAL AND SWAP MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

This article investigates the impact of currency convertibility under the current account on the informational linkage between official and swap market exchange rates for Chinese currency (renminbi). Findings indicate that currency convertibility increased the informational connection between the government's official exchange rate and the swap market exchange rate, exclusively traded by foreign investors, and thus improved the information content of renminbi exchange rates. Moreover, the results also suggest that more complete currency convertibility was needed for more informed renminbi exchange rates.